Baltic Dry Index. 2023 -48 Brent Crude 60.47
Spot
Gold 4369 Spot Silver 67.40
U
S 2 Year Yield 3.48 +0.02
US
Federal Debt. 38.431 trillion US GDP 30.652 trillion
December 20, 1830. Great Britain, France, Prussia, Austria and
Russia recognize Belgium.
In the stock casinos,
is all news good news again? I suspect a difficult year-end ending lies ahead
in 2025.
No one will want to
be caught long at year-end on what will become the tofu-dregs of 2026.
With The Donald about
to rig the US central bank to force lower US interest rates early next year,
hastening the end of the fiat dollar reserve standard, nearly everyone is
moving back into gold and silver.
Silver climbs to record
high, gold posts weekly gain on rate cut bets
By Sarah Qureshi and Anmol Choubey December
19, 20257:45 PM GMT
Dec 19 (Reuters) - Silver soared to a record high on
Friday, bolstered by investment demand and a supply tightness, while gold
posted a weekly gain buoyed by increasing expectations of interest rate cuts by
the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Spot silver rose 2.6% to $67.14 an ounce, ending the
week 8.4% higher after hitting a record high of $67.45 in the session.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,347.07 an ounce as of
02:17 p.m. ET (19:17 GMT), and logged a weekly gain of 1.1%. U.S. gold futures
settled 0.5% higher at $4,387.3.
"(Gold and silver) are highly correlated and
typically gold leads but the last two months, we saw silver lead. So, whenever
you see spread that wide, people will start to pick on gold and tighten on it
in the short term," said Michael Matousek, head trader at U.S. Global
Investors.
Silver has soared 132% this year, far outpacing
gold's 65% rise, driven by robust investment demand and supply constraints.
"ETF flows (in silver) continue to dominate
that theme as well as some speculation from the retail investor," said
Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.
Macro data has further fueled optimism for rate cuts
with U.S. consumer
prices rising 2.7% year-on-year in November, falling short of
economists' forecast of a 3.1% increase.
Separately, the U.S. Labor Department reported
earlier this week that the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the
highest since September 2021.
"We've seen the lower inflation data, the
weakening labor report. It really reaffirms that the Federal Reserve should
keep on their easing path – that's one of the main drivers. Second is a lot of
the uncertainty around what central bank policy is going to entail,"
Streible added.
Traders continued to bet on at least two
25-basis-point interest rate cuts next year from the Fed, according to LSEG
data. FEDWATCH/
Platinum gained 3.1% to $1,975.51 after touching a
more than 17-year high on Thursday. Palladium was 0.8% up at $1,709.75 after
hitting a nearly three-year high earlier in the session. Both metals posted
weekly gains.
Silver
climbs to record high, gold posts weekly gain on rate cut bets | Reuters
S&P
500 posts back-to-back gains Friday as AI trade makes a comeback: Live updates
Updated
Fri, Dec 19 2025 4:47 PM EST
U.S.
stocks rose on Friday, lifted by Oracle, as the artificial
intelligence trade regained its footing after experiencing volatility.
The Nasdaq Composite gained
1.31%, closing at 23,307.62. The S&P 500 climbed 0.88% to
end at 6,834.50, while the Dow
Jones Industrial Average advanced 183.04 points, or 0.38% and settled
at 48,134.89. It was the second winning day in a row for all three indexes.
Oracle
shares were up 6.6% after TikTok agreed to
sell its U.S. operations to a new joint venture that includes the
software giant and private equity investor Silver Lake.
The
jump marks a turnaround for the stock, which came under pressure this week
after a report revealed that the cloud infrastructure company lost
a key backer of one of its data center projects over worries about the
company’s debt and AI spending levels. That dragged
down other stocks linked to AI, including Broadcom and Advanced Micro Devices.
Elsewhere,
shares of AI chip darling Nvidia rose
about 4% after Reuters, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that
the Trump administration is reviewing
the prospect of the company selling its advanced AI chips to China.
Earlier this month, President Donald Trump said that he will
allow Nvidia to ship its H200 AI chips to “approved customers” in the
country.
Additionally, Micron Technology shares
extended their gains from the previous session, rising around 7%. The
stock surged
10% on Thursday after the company gave robust
guidance for revenues in the current quarter, providing reassurance to
investors after recent sessions were swamped with jitters over the AI trade.
“The
kind of onslaught of issuance from some of the hyperscalers, some of the AI
trades, could weigh on markets into 2026,” Tom Garretson, senior portfolio
strategist at RBC Wealth Management, said to CNBC. “But again, these are kind
of some of the best-rated companies in terms of credit qualities. They
obviously have the capacity to ramp up debt to finance some of this stuff.”
“We’re
still counting on some of the capex spend kind of supporting a broader or
probably better growth backdrop,” he also said.
This
comes after the S&P 500 and
the Dow both snapped
their four-day losing streaks in the previous session. With Friday’s moves, the
broad-based index eked out a 0.1% gain, while the Nasdaq advanced 0.5%. The
Dow, however, slipped 0.7%.
Nike was among the day’s
losers, as shares slid 10.5% after the sports apparel giant saw revenue in its
Greater China market decline during the fiscal
second quarter. The company is also feeling the pain of tariff
increases, noting a hit to its gross margins due to the levies.
Stock
market news for Dec. 19, 2025
US
Consumer Sentiment Has Fallen 30% Since Last December
December 19, 2025 at 11:09 PM GMT
The good news for the US economy is that consumer
sentiment rose in December. The bad news is it rose by less than expected, with
Americans remaining depressed over affordability concerns (despite a certain
someone’s claim it’s all a “hoax”). The University of Michigan’s final December
sentiment index climbed 1.9 points to 52.9, while the median estimate in a
Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 53.5.
Then there’s the worse news: “Sentiment
remains nearly 30% below December 2024, as pocketbook issues continue to
dominate consumer views of the economy,” Joanne Hsu, director of the
survey, said in a statement.
Markets however didn’t seem bothered, with
stocks rising while traders faced the expiration of a record pile of
options that threatened to trigger sudden price swings.
A rally in several tech names that have been under
scrutiny over their artificial-intelligence spending lifted equities. The
back-to-back advance in the S&P 500 wiped out its loss for the
week. Nvidia led gains in megacaps and even Oracle surged 7%.
Here’s your markets
wrap. —David
E. Rovella
US
Consumer Sentiment Has Fallen 30% Since Last Year: Evening Briefing Americas -
Bloomberg
In other news.
Everyday
items cost more than ever—how much prices have risen since 2020
Published
Thu, Dec 18 2025 3:05 PM EST
Even
with a lower-than-expected inflation reading Thursday,
the cost of everyday goods and services remains much higher than it was at the
start of the decade.
Prices
rose 2.7% over the past year, according to the consumer price
index,
which tracks changes in the cost of everyday items such as groceries, shelter,
clothing, health care and transportation.
While
that marks a sharper-than-expected slowdown from October’s 3% pace and brings
inflation closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, it has remained above the
Fed’s goal since March
2021.
The
cumulative effect of those increases continues to strain household budgets,
says Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Harris Bank.
“We’re
all comparing our grocery bills to what our money could buy in 2019 and not
walking away with a warm and fuzzy feeling,” Anderson tells CNBC Make It.
Overall
prices are up about 25% since January 2020, based on CPI data — more than
double the roughly 10% cumulative inflation seen in the five years before that.
Feeling
the pinch
Wages
have largely kept up with inflation since 2020 by most federal measures of
income, according to a July 2025 report
from Brookings.
Still, not every worker has seen those gains, says Anderson.
“Wage
gains tend to be higher for higher-skilled workers than lower-skilled workers,
and in industries like financial services, information services and
manufacturing sectors,” he says.
That
uneven pattern may help explain why confidence remains weak, even with
relatively low unemployment and steady overall wage growth.
Consumer
sentiment — a closely watched measure of household confidence — is near historic lows, based on a
monthly University of Michigan survey. The survey asks households how their
finances compare with a year ago, whether they expect their finances to improve
in the year ahead and whether now is a good time to make major purchases.
The latest
index reading fell
to 51 in November, a level last seen during the inflation surge of 2022, when
the year-over-year inflation rate reached a peak of 9.1%.
Similarly,
a recent Bankrate
survey found
that 32% of Americans expect their finances to worsen in 2026, the highest
level of pessimism since the annual survey began in 2018. Inflation stood out
as the top concern, cited by nearly two-thirds of respondents — far more often
than income, debt or interest rates.
“The
cost of living still feels like it’s rising for households who are now paying a
lot more for food, electricity and housing than they were for several years
before inflation shot up,” says Atsi Sheth, chief credit officer at Moody’s
Ratings.
How much everyday
prices have risen since 2020
Belgium is a country invented by the British to annoy the
French.
Charles de Gaulle
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
At the
heart of capitalism is creative destruction.
Joseph A. Schumpeter
Bank
of Japan raises benchmark rates to highest in 30 years, lifting 10-year JGB
yield past 2%
Published
Thu, Dec 18 2025 10:26 PM EST
Japan’s
central bank on Friday raised its short-term rates to a three-decade high,
driving a sell-off in government bonds, while signaling its readiness to
tighten further as it marches ahead with policy normalization.
The
Bank of Japan raised benchmark rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, their highest
level since 1995, and in line with expectations of economists polled by
Reuters.
The
BOJ said that real interest rates are expected to remain “significantly
negative,” adding that accommodative financial conditions will continue to
firmly support economic activity.
Following
the decision, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose about 5 basis
points to 2.019%, while the 20-year JGB yield climbed 3 basis points to 2.975%,
both reaching their highest since 1999.
The yen weakened
0.25% to 155.92 against the dollar, and the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock
index gained 1.28%.
Japan
embarked on policy normalization last year, abandoning the world’s only
negative interest rate regime that had been in place since 2016. Since then,
the BOJ has consistently maintained its stance on gradually lifting rates,
stating that its goal was to see a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and prices.
Inflation
has run above above the BOJ’s 2% target for 44 straight months, with data released
earlier in the day showing consumer price growth at 2.9% in November. High
inflation has pressured real wages that have
been declining for 10 months in a row, according to labor
ministry data.
The
BOJ projected that core inflation — which strips out the prices of fresh food —
is likely to decelerate below 2% from April to September 2026, due to a slower
rise in food prices as well as the effects of government measures aimed at
addressing rising prices.
Higher
rates risk exacerbating the downturn in the Japanese economy. Revised
GDP numbers for
the third quarter showed that economy shrank more than initially estimated,
contracting 0.6% quarter on quarter, and 2.3% on an annualized basis.
The
BOJ said in its statement that while weakness has been seen in the economy,
corporate profits were likely to remain high, and firms are expected to
continue raising wages in 2026.
More
Bank of Japan
raises short-term interest rates to highest in 30 years
Yen
falls after BOJ raises rates, stays vague on tightening path
By Tom Westbrook December 19, 2025 8:15 AM GMT
SINGAPORE,
Dec 19 (Reuters) - The yen weakened in volatile trade on Friday after the Bank
of Japan delivered a widely expected rate hike, while its
governor offered few hints on the timing of future increases even as he left
the door open to further tightening.
The
yen initially fell against the dollar after the BOJ raised its policy rate to
0.75% from 0.5% in a move that had been well telegraphed by policymakers, prompting
traders to sell the currency
on the fact.
Losses
in the Japanese currency extended following BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's
post-meeting press conference, where he remained vague on the exact timing and
pace of future interest rate hikes. It was last 0.6% weaker at 156.53 per
dollar.
The
euro rose to a record high of 183.25 yen . Sterling gained 0.52% to 209.16 yen
.
In
Friday's statement, the BOJ maintained its view that underlying inflation will
converge around its 2% target in the latter half of its three-year projection
period through fiscal 2027.
But
hawkish board members Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura dissented to the view.
Takata said underlying inflation has already achieved the target, while Tamura
said it would do so as soon as the middle of the three-year projection period.
"There
seems to be a conversation going on and the reaction we're seeing in the
market, in my belief, is about future moves from the BOJ...(they're) not dead
set on another hike," said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State
Street, in the wake of the BOJ decision earlier on Friday.
"I
do believe there's consensus that 1% or 1.25% is sort of the neutral rate at
the moment, it just seems like it's going to be a bit of a steeper hill for the
BOJ to get there."
The
BOJ again noted real rates were at "significantly" low levels even
after the hike, and pledged to continue tightening should the economy and
inflation pan out as forecast.
EURO
DIPS AS LAGARDE REBUFFS HAWKS
Overnight,
the dollar had briefly weakened following a sharp and unexpected fall in U.S. inflation, but investors
were not sure how far to trust the data since collection was interrupted by the
U.S. government shutdown, and the move soon retraced.
More
Yen falls after
BOJ raises rates, stays vague on tightening path | Reuters
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Could Iron–Sodium Batteries Replace Lithium Ion?
Iron–sodium
batteries gain momentum for long duration storage; Inlyte Energy milestone
shows potential to enhance grid reliability and resilience.
December 12, 2025
The energy storage market is entering a new phase where
non-lithium chemistries are gaining traction. Iron–sodium batteries, a
high-temperature sodium metal chloride chemistry that incorporates iron to
reduce cost and reliance on constrained metals, are among the most promising
contenders. The question isn’t whether they will replace lithium-ion in every
market, but where they can take the lead.
Market momentum for non‑lithium chemistries
Lithium-ion remains the workhorse for electric vehicles (EVs),
portable devices, and short- to medium-duration grid applications thanks to its
energy density, fast response, and mature manufacturing. Yet the industry’s
rapid growth and the need to diversify supply chains have increased interest in
chemistries based on abundant elements such as sodium and iron. These systems
avoid flammable liquid electrolytes, offer robust safety characteristics, and
aim to deliver utility‑scale capacity without the cost volatility tied to
lithium, nickel, and cobalt. As market volumes rise, portfolio
thinking—matching technology to task—becomes a commercial imperative, not just
a technical preference.
Bridging the long-duration gap
Long-duration
energy storage (LDES) is where iron–sodium can credibly shift the balance.
The U.S. Department of Energy projects the
future U.S. grid will need more than 225 gigawatts of LDES by 2050. Lithium-ion
batteries perform well for one to four hours, often up to six, but their
economic viability and temperature control become more difficult as the
duration extends to eight, twelve, or twenty-four hours.
Related:Long-Duration
Energy Storage Alternative Chemistries
Iron–sodium batteries are engineered for multi-hour to multi-day
output, leveraging a solid electrolyte and elevated operating temperatures to
deliver steady performance with strong safety margins. They’re designed to firm
variable renewables, improve resilience during extreme weather, and help defer
costly transmission and distribution upgrades—exactly the roles LDES must play
to make a clean grid reliable and affordable.
More
Could Iron–Sodium
Batteries Replace Lithium Ion?
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Exponent
Calculator
Enter
values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.
This
weekend’s music diversion, time for another Heinichen. Approx. 8 minutes.
Heinichen
Dresden Concerto in F Seibel 233
Heinichen Dresden Concerto
in F Seibel 233
Next,
more forgotten British maths history. Approx. 13 minutes.
Babbage's
Puzzle – Computerphile
Babbage's Puzzle -
Computerphile - YouTube
Finally,
how Admiral Nelson won at the Nile. Approx. 29 minutes.
Nelson's
Battles in 3D: The Nile
Nelson's Battles
in 3D: The Nile
Next
weekend, Nelson’s great victory at Trafalgar.
As a matter of fact, capitalist economy is not and cannot be
stationary. Nor is it merely expanding in a steady manner. It is incessantly
being revolutionized from within by new enterprise, i.e., by the intrusion of
new commodities or new methods of production or new commercial opportunities
into the industrial structure as it exists at any moment.
Joseph A. Schumpeter
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