Baltic
Dry Index. 2205 -89 Brent Crude 61.45
Spot Gold 4362 US 2 Year Yield 3.52 unch.
US Federal Debt. 38.411 trillion
US GDP 31.641 trillion.
A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul.
George Bernard Shaw
An interesting week lies ahead for stocks and metals. Today’s articles largely speak for themselves.
With the US central bank starting more “not QE” easing on Friday, precious metals and industrial metal copper, will likely close out the year at or near the year’s highs.
In the wheat, barley and sunflower oil markets, will Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s Odessa export port disrupt global supply?
But in the stock casinos, is the AI bubble over and if it is, how much year-end profit taking selling pressure will it generate?
South Korea stocks lead losses in Asia-Pacific as
investors parse key data from China
Published Sun, Dec 14 2025 6:48 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets fell Monday, after
Wall Street declined Friday stateside as investors took a breather from the AI
trade.
″[Friday] is a value-outperforms-growth
day,” said Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management.
“Investors are definitely skittish as it relates to AI — not outright
pessimistic, but just kind of, I think, cautious and nervous and hesitant.”
Traders in Asia will also look toward key
data from China, which will release its retail sales, fixed asset investment
and industrial output numbers for November.
South Korea’s Kospi fell 2.16% while the
small-cap Kosdaq was 1.17% lower. Index heavyweights memory chipmaker SK Hynix
was down over 4%, while Samsung Electronics declined 3.3%.
Japan announced its fourth-quarter Tankan
numbers. The index for business optimism among large Japanese manufacturers
increased to +15 for the fourth quarter, hitting the highest level in four
years.
The latest reading compared to the +14
increase in the previous quarter, and matched expectations of economists polled
by Reuters. The non-manufacturing index for the fourth quarter came in at +34.
The Tankan survey, conducted by the Bank
of Japan, measures business sentiment among companies in the world’s fourth
largest economy.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.66%.
On Sunday, the country suffered its worst
gun attack in over 30 years that left at least 15 dead.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 1.3%, while
the Topix declined 0.27%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 0.79%,
while the mainland CSI 300 was flat, after a slew of key economic data out of
China. Retail sales rose 1.3% last month from a year earlier, sharply missing
Reuters’ median forecast for a 2.8% growth, and slowing from the 2.9%
rise in the prior month.
Industrial production climbed 4.8% in
November from a year ago, down from 4.9% in the prior month and missing
expectations for a 5% increase.
On Friday in the U.S., the S&P 500 fell 1.07%,
retreating from a record, and the Nasdaq Composite declined
1.69%. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average finished down 0.51% after scoring a new
intraday all-time high earlier in the session.
AI-related stocks faced pressure during
the session, with stocks of Broadcom plunging
more than 11%, and dragging the broad market index and tech-heavy Nasdaq. AMD, Palantir Technologies and Micron also declined.
South
Korea stocks lead losses in Asia-Pacific as investors parse key data from China
Global week ahead: Europe under fire
Published Sun, Dec 14 2025 2:07 AM EST
President Donald Trump’s verdict
on Europe:
a “decaying” group of nations led by “weak” people.
His criticism in a
recent Politico interview adds to a tough period for the bloc, with
challenges on multiple fronts testing European leaders in the final weeks of
the year.
Next week looks set to be critical, with a
high-stakes summit in Brussels and the European Central Bank’s final policy
meeting of the year. Let’s take a look at some of the key topics for next week:
Defrosting frozen assets
At the summit in Brussels on Thursday (and
possibly extending into Friday), European leaders are expected to address the
most pressing challenge — how to sharpen military capabilities and support the
funding of the war in Ukraine.
Key to this is an agreement on how to
use billions of frozen
Russian assets to
underpin a 210-billion-euro loan ($246 billion) to Kyiv. Defending Ukraine’s
borders as part of any peace agreement will also remain critical, with
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposing a vote or referendum within Ukraine on
whether to allow parts of the Donbas region to be ceded to Russia as part of
the U.S. peace plan.
Tensions between the White House and
Europe following Trump’s comments will only challenge this process, with NATO
Secretary General Mark Rutte issuing a stark warning this week that “we
[Europe] are Russia’s next target, and we are already in harm’s way.”
EU vs U.S., trade vs tech
Another fractious front for Europe is the
Big Tech space. The bloc has been heavily criticized by the Trump
administration for its targeting of American tech giants. U.S. Trade
Representative Jamieson Greer said he was “disappointed” by the EU’s use of the
Digital Services Act, despite agreeing to “fair treatment” of U.S. digital
giants as part of the July trade agreement.
The bloc has issued fines to X for violating
content-moderation laws, and put Google under an
antitrust investigation for its use of content to inform its AI models.
Meanwhile, Meta has offered
to make changes to its Facebook and Instagram services to avoid further
investigation and fines from the EU.
Promising policy
There is a bright spot for Europe this
week. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday for its final policy-setting
meeting of the year. Speaking
to the Financial Times, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central
bank was likely to lift its growth forecasts again in December, after raising
its prediction for annual GDP growth to 1.2% back in September.
Broad consensus is that this improved
outlook will also support the central bank’s decision to keep rates on hold at
2% for another month. Throughout December, ECB board members themselves have
reinforced this messaging:
Isabel Schnabel: rates unlikely to change
soon
Francois Villeroy de Galhau: no reason to
raise rates soon
Gediminas Simkus: no need for change to
rates
Joachim Nagel: rates are currently in a
good place
Events in This Week:
Monday: EU foreign affairs council meeting
Tuesday: EU general affairs council
meeting
Wednesday: EU inflation data, UK inflation
data, German IFO index
Thursday: EU leaders summit, ECB meeting,
BOE meeting, Riksbank meeting, Norges bank meeting
Friday: EU leaders summit may continue
Global week ahead:
Europe under fire
Bank of England expected to cut interest rates to
nearly three-year low
14 December 2025
The Bank of England
is readying to cut interest rates to the lowest level in nearly three years,
delivering a bout of “festive news” to borrowers, economists think.
The Bank’s Monetary
Policy Committee (MPC)
is widely expected to reduce interest rates from 4% to 3.75% on Thursday.
This would bring borrowing costs down to
the lowest rate since the beginning of February 2023.
The next decision from policymakers, which
will be the last of the year, comes as economic data shows signs of cooling
inflation in the UK.
Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation fell
to a four-month low of 3.6% in October after gas and electricity prices rose at
a slower rate to the previous year.
Economists think that falling inflation,
alongside other signs that the economy is cooling, will encourage policymakers
to opt for a rate cut next week.
More
Bank of England
expected to cut interest rates to nearly three-year low
Copper could hit ‘stratospheric new highs’ as
hoarding of the metal in U.S. continues
Published Sun, Dec 14 2025 8:07 PM EST
Copper prices have soared this year,
hitting multiple record highs, fueled by supply disruptions and as fears over
U.S. tariffs have led to a surge in demand. The rally is set to continue into
2026.
Citi analysts expect prices of the red
metal to skyrocket on the back of stronger demand led by the energy transition
and artificial intelligence sectors. Electrification, grid expansion and
data-center build-outs require large amounts of the metal for wiring, power
transmission and cooling infrastructure.
According to Citi, projected copper
deficits due to constrained mine supply, and continued “hoarding” of copper in
the U.S. due to arbitrage opportunities are expected to contribute to price
surges: “We expect the U.S. to hoard global copper inventory and, in a bull
case, draw further on depleted ex-U.S. stock.“
The brokerage sees copper hitting $13,000 per ton in early 2026, and even
$15,000 by the second quarter of next year.
Similarly, Avatar Commodities’ CEO Andrew
Glass sees copper prices hitting “stratospheric new highs,” especially as
physical hoarding in the U.S. continues to erode international availability.
The current rally reflects a “highly
irregular distortion,” driven primarily by anticipation of tariffs rather than
traditional supply-demand fundamentals, he said, adding that Chinese copper
demand has disappointed in recent months.
ING’s commodities strategist Ewa Manthey,
who sees prices going up to $12,000 per ton in the second quarter of next year,
said that higher copper prices are set to squeeze margins in energy-intensive
sectors.
Spot prices of the red metal, which is
seen as a leading indicator for the global economy, hit another high on Friday
at $11,816 per ton on the London Metals Exchange, with 3-month futures closing
at $11,515.
LME copper spot prices, which is considered the global benchmark, have gained about 36% so far this year, and are up 9%
over the past month.
The latest leg of the rally has been
turbocharged by tariff concerns, experts told CNBC, with worries that
Washington could impose duties on refined copper imports from 2027 leading to a surge in demand.
“A huge amount of tightness has to do with
U.S. tariff concerns with refined copper inflows into the U.S.,” said Natalie
Scott-Gray, senior metals analyst at StoneX, in reference to copper supplies
outside the U.S.
According to data provided by the global
financial services firm, refined copper inflows into the U.S. have jumped by
about 650,000 tons over this year, pushing inventories in the country to
roughly 750,000 tons.
Because copper prices in the U.S. are
higher than elsewhere, traders have a strong incentive to ship large amounts of
copper into the country, said Scott-Gray.
----That pull has tightened supply
outside the U.S., especially copper stocks in the London Metal Exchange, which is often described as the
market of last resort because it absorbs surplus copper when demand is weak and
releases it when supply tightens elsewhere. LME inventory data is commonly
interpreted as a barometer of broader market tightness.
A growing share of LME copper stocks has
been reportedly tied up in the so-called canceled warrants, meaning the
metal has been reserved for physical delivery by other buyers and is
effectively no longer available in the market, intensifying fears of a supply
squeeze.
Data published by LME last week shows copper inventories in the exchange
stand at around 165,000 tons, with 66,650 tons, around 40%, marked for
delivery. Inventory levels are nearly 40% lower compared to the start of the
year.
More
Copper
prices could hit new highs as traders rush metal into the U.S.
In other news, Ukraine’s main grain export port was heavily attacked.
Ukraine's Odesa suffers major blackouts after
Russian attack
By Reuters December 13, 2025 6:31 PM GMT
KYIV, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Ukraine's
southern port city of Odesa and the surrounding region suffered major blackouts
on Saturday after a large overnight Russian attack on the power grid that left
more than a million households without power.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia
had attacked Ukraine with more than 450 drones and 30 missiles.
"The brunt of the attack was on our
energy system, on the south and Odesa region," Zelenskiy wrote on
Telegram, adding that thousands of families in seven regions across Ukraine
were left without power.
Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said it
was one of the war's largest attacks on Odesa, where supplies of electricity
and water had been knocked out. She said supplies of non-drinking water were
being brought in to areas of the city.
Ukraine's interior minister Ihor Klymenko
said more than a million households across Ukraine had been left without power
and five people had been wounded as a result of the attack.
Ukraine's power grid operator said a
"significant number" of households were without power in the southern
regions of Odesa and Mykolaiv, and that the Ukrainian-controlled part of the
frontline Kherson region was totally without power.
Moscow has regularly bombarded Ukraine's
energy system since its 2022 invasion, causing hours of daily blackouts
countrywide.
Russia's defence ministry said on Saturday
it had conducted strikes on Ukrainian energy and military-industrial
facilities.
Ukraine's Odesa
suffers major blackouts after Russian attack | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Global
central bank easing cycle is over
December
11, 202512:30 AM GMT Updated December 11, 2025
ORLANDO,
Florida, Dec 10 (Reuters) - The global interest rate landscape is suddenly
looking a lot less benign than it did only a few weeks ago, suggesting 2026
could be much more volatile than investors had bargained for.
Comments
this week from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock and European
Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel, signaling that
their next move could be rate hikes, have brought into sharp focus the hawkish
drift across major central banks that has emerged recently.
Bullock's
remarks caught markets off guard, while Schnabel's were less surprising. But
together, they underscore a much more challenging monetary policy environment
next year - borrowing costs are likely to rise.
The
common thread is inflation, which remains stubbornly above target in many
developed economies, while growth is still mostly solid.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday
cut rates as expected and signaled one more next year. Chair Jerome Powell said
policy is roughly in "neutral" territory, and added that the central
bank's next move is unlikely to be a hike.
HAWKISH
PIVOT
A
glance at market rate expectations for G10 central banks shows that only three
- the Fed, Bank of England, and Norges Bank - are expected to cut rates next
year, with the Fed easing by 75 basis points and the other two by 50.
The
Bank of Canada and RBA are now expected to raise rates by around 35 and 50 bps
next year, respectively. Only a few weeks ago rate cuts in both countries were
considered more likely than hikes.
What
explains the turnaround?
Many
major central banks are in a highly unusual position, having just conducted the
fastest rate-cutting cycle outside a recession in decades. In the case of the
Fed, it's since the mid-1980s, while the ECB has never eased policy this
aggressively absent a contraction, according to Deutsche Bank analysts.
History
shows that, unsurprisingly, rapid easing without a recession often leads to a
strong re-acceleration of economic activity, especially if the rate cuts are
coupled with fiscal largesse, paving the way for a quicker-than-expected return
to rate hikes. This may be what we see next year.
"Central
banks are very much walking a tightrope right now," Deutsche Bank's Jim
Reid wrote on Tuesday.
Of
course, the chances of the Fed raising rates any time soon are low. But given
the way the international wind is blowing, it's not something that can be
completely taken off the 2026 table, Reid says.
UPENDING
MARKET COMPLACENCY
As
investors reassess the global central bank landscape, currencies and bonds
could be particularly vulnerable, especially with volatility in these markets
so muted at the moment.
The
"MOVE" index, a measure of implied volatility in the U.S. Treasury
market, last week fell to a four-year low, while this week an index of implied
volatility across six major currencies against the U.S. dollar hit its lowest
since July last year.
One
likely implication of a hawkish lurch across G10 central banks is renewed
selling pressure on the Japanese yen.
The
consensus market view has long been that the Bank of Japan will hike rates in
2026, but the expectation was that few of its G10 counterparts would follow
suit, helping to prop up the flagging currency.
A
hawkish global pivot would complicate policy for the BOJ significantly and risk
sending the yen back to recent historic lows around 162 per dollar, raising the
specter of FX market intervention by the Ministry of Finance. It's not far from
that level today.
More
Global central
bank easing cycle is over | Reuters
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Off topic but close.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Qantas bans power bank battery packs
Rechargeable
power bank batteries can no longer be used on board from Monday December 15.
By David
Flynn, December 12 2025
Qantas, Jetstar and QantasLink will ban
the use of portable ‘power bank’ batteries accross all domestic and
international flights from Monday December 15, 2025.
This covers using a power bank to
recharge devices such as phones, tablets, laptops and cameras, as well as using
the plane’s USB or AC outlets to recharge the battery pack itself.
The move follows similar bans imposed by
an increasing number of airlines – including Virgin Australia, Emirates, Singapore Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Thai Airways, EVA Air and
Korean Air – after a series of incidents in which batteries have caught fire on
board and even in airport lounges.
What does this mean for travellers?
New Qantas rules for flying with power banks
While you can still bring a
rechargeable power bank onto your flight in carry-on, it can’t be used on
board:
- you can’t connect your phone, tablet or any other device to the
power bank to charge them up en route, and
- you can’t plug the power bank into the plane’s USB socket to charge
it up
For that reason, we strongly recommend
bringing along a USB charging cable with you so you can plug your phone, tablet
etc into the seat’s USB power outlet.
The majority of the Qantas fleet already
boasts USB charging ports for every passenger, with the newest Airbus A220 and A321XLR jets
featuring dual USB-A and USB-C outlets.
All the same, before you board the
flight it might also be worth taking advantage of a quick top-up using power
outlets in the airport lounge or the terminal.
Passengers on Qantas, QantasLink and
Jetstar are allowed to bring two power banks on board, each
with a maximum capacity of 160Wh.
Don’t confuse this rating with the
battery’s power output (measured in Watts) or its capacity (measured
in milliampere-hours, or mAh).
That 160Wh rating covers pretty much
every power bank on the market – even the chunky Anker Laptop Power Bank, which
has a maxumum 165W output and 25,000 mAh capacity, is rated at just 90Wh.
Also safe to bring on Qantas flights are
most Ryobi ONE+ 18V batteries used by tradies, right up to the beefy 8Ah/144Wh
model.
However, it’s worth noting that
Qantas also requires that exposed battery terminals must be
“protected” to prevent accidental discharge – this is easily done by putting
some tape across the terminals.
Battery packs exceeding 160Wh require
approval by the airline before they can be brought on board.
As before, power banks continue to be
prohibited from checked luggage – either bring them on board
in your carry-on baggage, or leave them at home.
Power bank batteries must also be kept
within easy reach – such as in a seat pocket or under the seat in front of you
– and not stored in the overhead luggage bin.
If you own a “smart bag” which contains
a battery, the battery must be removed from the bag and taken as carry-on, and
stowed in the same way as power banks.
More
Qantas bans power bank battery packs - Executive Traveller
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
If there was twenty ways of telling the truth and only one way
of telling a lie, the Government would find it out. It's in the nature of
governments to tell lies.
George Bernard Shaw
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