Baltic
Dry Index. 2294 -136 Brent Crude 61.80
Spot Gold 4309 US 2 Year Yield 3.52 -0.02
US Federal Debt. 38.398 trillion
US GDP 31.634 trillion.
If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're mis-informed.
Mark Twain
Starting today, the US central bank is beginning 40 billion of “not QE.” Calling it “not QE” doesn’t make it not QE, it’s still new QE.
Get gold and silver, because QE is intended to lower Uncle Scam’s interest costs, which means larger Federal deficits and faster, but a lower dollar spending power too. Currency debasement. More de-dollarisation.
Get copper too, but not because of QE, but because demand for electrification and for global AI data centers is about to generate excess copper demand over present and future supply. And not just next year, but in all likelihood out to the early 2030s. Copper price rationing will be the result. Copper price inflation.
In the stock casinos, what’s not to like about more QE, currency debasement. Look away from the soaring gold price and falling oil price due to a contracting global economy now.
Asia-Pacific markets trade higher after Wall
Street notches fresh record
Published Thu, Dec 11 2025 6:49 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets traded higher Friday,
tracking Wall Street gains after two key benchmarks hit new records on the
heels of the recent Federal Reserve decision to cut rates.
The central bank on Wednesday lowered its
key overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point, putting it in a
range of 3.5%-3.75%.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 1.33%, while
the Topix added 1.97%. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 1.13%, while the small-cap
Kosdaq traded around the flatline.
Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 was 1.23%
higher. India’s Nifty 50 was up 0.6%. The rupee weakened to a record low of
90.55 against the dollar.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index added 1.65%,
while the mainland’s CSI 300 rose 0.61%.
China’s top leaders wrapped up an annual
economic planning meeting Thursday by affirming broad economic support for the
year ahead, including boosting consumption and stabilizing the property sector.
Policymakers remained focused on bolstering domestic tech capabilities, a key
priority for the upcoming five-year plan that kicks off in 2026.
Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reached new
highs, with investors rotating out of high-flying tech stocks and into names
likely to benefit from a growing U.S. economy after the Federal Reserve cut
interest rates.
The 30-stock Dow rose 646.26 points, or
1.34%, to finish at 48,704.01, a fresh closing high. The index also scored
a new
record intraday high, supported by a rise in Visa shares after it was upgraded
by Bank of America. The broad market S&P 500 traded up 0.21%
to settle at 6,901.00, also a closing record. However, the Nasdaq Composite pulled back
0.26% to finish at 23,593.86.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Nikkei 225, Nifty 50, Kospi, Hang Seng Index
S&P 500, Dow close at record highs as Oracle
sparks rush out of AI trade into broader market
Updated Thu, Dec 11 2025 5:53 PM EST
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reached new
heights on Thursday, as a Federal Reserve interest rate cut followed by
disappointing Oracle results prompted investors to move out of high-flying tech
stocks and into names that can benefit from a growing U.S. economy.
The 30-stock Dow rose 646.26 points, or
1.34%, to finish at 48,704.01, a fresh closing high. The index also scored
a new
record intraday high, supported by a rise in Visa shares after the name
was upgraded
at Bank of America. The broad market S&P 500 traded up 0.21%
to settle at 6,901.00, which was also a closing record. However, the Nasdaq Composite pulled back
0.26% to finish at 23,593.86.
Oracle shares
tumbled nearly 11% after the cloud computing company posted disappointing
quarterly revenue and raised its spending forecast, heightening
concerns about the company’s debt. The report added more fuel to the debate
about how quickly tech companies will be able to see returns on their
artificial intelligence investments, spurring a rotation trade.
Other AI plays were trading lower,
including Nvidia and Broadcom, which were each down
more than 1%. Meanwhile, cyclical stocks like Home Depot were higher.
“The market is properly concerned with
Oracle and, by extension, with the AI trade in general, because there’s
literally trillions of dollars of commitments out there, but there’s clearly a
difficulty in figuring out how this is going to transpire, and Oracle, to some
extent, is acting like the canary in the coal mine,” said Steve Sosnick, chief
strategist at Interactive Brokers. “The market’s right to rotate a little bit
away from this.”
The downbeat sentiment toward tech put a
damper on the momentum garnered during the previous session, which saw the
S&P 500 close just inches away from a new record after a divided Fed announced
an interest rate cut for the third time this year. That places its key
overnight borrowing rate at a 3.5%-3.75% range. The central bank also ruled
out a rate hike in the path ahead.
With smaller companies tending to benefit
more from lower rates than larger companies because their borrowing costs are
more closely linked to market rates, the Russell 2000 index of
small-capitalization stocks hit new intraday and closing highs Thursday
alongside the Dow. The Russell 2000 had joined the three major indexes in
seeing a boost during Wednesday’s session after the Fed’s rate cut and even
notched a record close that day.
At this point, Sosnick said the so-called
Santa Claus rally “seems preordained” and could propel the S&P 500 to break
the 7,000 level. However, he expects some pressure on the broader market next
year, with a 2026 year-end S&P 500 price target of 6,500. He cited AI
headwinds as well as a new Fed chair and the midterm elections as catalysts for
downside.
“Ultimately, I do have to be a bit
concerned, because if the steam is coming out of the AI trade, there’s a lot of
heavy lifting that has to be done by everything else,” the chief strategist
told CNBC. “After three years of a huge bull market, there are, I think, some
underappreciated risk elements.”
Stock
market news for Dec. 11, 2025
‘Reflation is back’ says Deutsche Bank as global
central banks diverge from Fed
Published Thu, Dec 11 2025 6:19 AM EST
As central banks make different decisions
on rates this week and next, their economies all show one thing, according to
Deutsche Bank: Global reflation is back.
“Something’s cooking. In contrast to
US rates, the rest of the world looks far more interesting,” George Saravelos,
global head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank, said in a note issued ahead of the
announcement.
Reflation means an attempt to lift the
economy after weak growth, typically by lowering rates, buying government
bonds, and cutting taxes to encourage spending.
A “sharp re-pricing was underway” in
Australia, Saravelos said, as the market now expects a rate hike by the Reserve
Bank of Australia when it meets in February, having kept rates at 3.6% on
Tuesday.
“But it’s not just Australia, interest
rate expectations in many economies outside of the US have surged in recent
months,” Saravelos said, noting that U.S. 10-year treasury yields are unchanged
compared with Korea, Sweden, and Japan, among others, which have seen a 30 to
50bps sell-off.
“There is a common denominator in all
these countries: fiscal policy is easy, house prices are starting to accelerate
again, and central banks are not willing to accept any more currency
----
Switzerland’s central bank left rates unchanged at 0% on Thursday, while
the European Central Bank and Bank of England are set to meet next week.
The Bank of Japan meets on Dec. 19, when
it is expected to raise its key policy rate. This is arguably “more important”
than the Fed’s decision, according to Gautam Samarth, fund manager at M&G
Investments, told CNBC.
“We might be seeing a regime change in
Japan right now,” Samarth told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Wednesday.
“Inflation has been problematic,” he said, given recent rises after
decades of a low-rate environment, though the government is taking action
with new stimulus programs.
“So we’ve still got deeply negative
interest rates, and the bond markets have reacted in a weird way. So in terms
of the path to normalization and getting to a more neutral interest rate
stance, and its knock on effects and asset pricing, I think Japan is very, very
interesting,” Samarth added.
Inflation in Europe, meanwhile, is just
above the target of 2%, which explains why so many expect the European Central
Bank to take a neutral stance.
Deutsche Bank’s Saravelos pointed to
European equities “at record highs” and the Euro-area PMI data being
“consistent with annualized GDP growth of around 1.5%” as signs that the bloc’s
growth has picked up.
“This is already higher than consensus
expectations for next year, even before the German fiscal stimulus has kicked
in and with private saving rates at the highs,” he said, but added that “they
have plenty of potential to come down, especially in the event of a
Russia–Ukraine peace deal.”
More
'Reflation is
back' says Deutsche Bank as central banks diverge from Fed
In other news.
US farmers say Trump's $12 billion aid package
won't cover losses
December 10, 2025 7:39 PM GMT
WASHINGTON, Dec 10 (Reuters) - U.S.
farmers facing steep losses this year welcomed President Donald Trump's $12 billion aid
package announced
on Monday, but said they would need more than that to fully offset low crop
prices and lost export opportunities from his trade war.
The aid will help farmers prepare for the
next planting season, said five farmers and agricultural groups, four
agricultural economists and three bankers. Yet they added that it is a fraction
of farm losses and will not rescue the sagging farm economy.
"This support will serve as a
lifeline for those simply trying to make it to next year. But it is just a
lifeline, not a long-term solution," said Mike Stranz, vice president of
advocacy at the National Farmers Union.
Farmers have been saddled with low crop
prices, higher costs for labor and inputs,
opens new tablike
fertilizer and seeds. Meanwhile, exports of crops like soybeans have declined
due to Trump's trade disputes.
Farm losses this year range from $35
billion to $44 billion for the nine major commodity crops, including corn,
soybeans, wheat and peanuts, said Shawn Arita, associate director of the
Agricultural Risk Policy Center at North Dakota State University.
Trump administration officials have said
the aid is only meant to serve as a stopgap until favorable changes to farm
support programs from Trump's tax and spending bill take effect, which should
result in higher government farm payments.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said
the administration's ultimate aim is for farmers to have strong markets
"instead of farming for government checks."
In the meantime, "this bridge is
absolutely necessary based on where we are right now," she said at the
White House on Monday.
Agricultural lenders expect less than half
of farm borrowers to be profitable in 2026, with liquidity, income and
inflation as their top concerns, according to a November survey of agricultural
lenders by the American Bankers Association and Farmer Mac.
LOTS OF CASH, LITTLE RELIEF
Even before the new aid, the Trump
administration was set to supply farmers with a near-record $40 billion in
total government payments this year, fueled by ad hoc disaster and economic
support.
Trump's tax and spending law, called
the One Big Beautiful
Bill,
could push some farm payments higher next year. It increases reference prices -
below which farm safety net programs are triggered - for commodities like corn
and soybeans.
This week's aid program is "intended
to help producers stay afloat until the major improvements from the One Big
Beautiful Bill Act, including a 10% to 21% increase in reference prices, take
effect in October of 2026," said Richard Fordyce, the U.S. Department of
Agriculture's under secretary for farm production and conservation, on a Monday
call with reporters.
Reference price adjustments, though
welcome and significant, are not enough to help farmers get ahead of mounting
debt and higher expenses, said Wesley Davis, an independent agricultural
economist.
More than half of farmers expect to use
federal aid payments to pay down debt, rather than to invest in machinery or
working capital, according to an October Purdue University/CME Group survey.
The $12 billion in aid will "get
spread out quite a bit," said Jennifer Ifft, professor of agricultural
economics at Kansas State University. "If you're in a bad place
financially, this is just a bridge."
More
US farmers say
Trump's $12 billion aid package won't cover losses | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Copper
price rally resumes on supply warning
December
10, 2025 | 1:25 pm
Copper
prices rebounded to a near record on Wednesday amid fresh warnings of a sizable
supply shortage that is likely to fall short of demand.
Three-month
futures on the London Metal Exchange settled at $11,556.50 a ton, for an
intraday gain of 0.6%.
Earlier
this week, the metal — a raw material vital to renewable energy, electric
vehicles and data centers — hit a record of
$11,771 a ton after
promising economic outlook from China, its top consumer.
The
renewed rally comes on the back of further bullish calls on copper’s long-term
prospects, which in recent months have been lifted by a series of mine
disruptions and growing expectations of a US tariff on the metal.
“We
believe a period of higher prices is needed to spur investment in new copper
production, and the mining industry struggles to build new supply,” RBC Capital
Markets said in its latest note.
“The
interplay of AI-driven data center growth, EV expansion and a global shift
toward dovish economic policy sets up a strong case for copper demand.”
After
setting a record, copper had fallen as much as 1.3% following signs of slowdown
in Chinese demand, as new data revealed that producer prices in the
country fell for the 38th straight month.
The
earlier decline also came before Wednesday’s US interest rate decision, which
would have a bearing on the outlook for the world’s biggest economy next year.
Copper price rally
resumes on supply warning - MINING.COM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Off topic but close.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
EXCLUSIVE: Woman dies in horror house fire after e-bike battery
explodes as sister issues warning
Ehsia Johnson-Mall is warning Christmas shoppers to beware of
'bargain' deals online after her sister Natasha and friend Karlo died in a
horrific house fire when an e-bike battery exploded
10:43, 10 Dec 2025 Updated 13:56, 10 Dec
2025
A devastated woman has issued an urgent
warning to Christmas shoppers after her sister died in a horror
e-bike fire.
Ehsia Johnson-Mall’s sister, Natasha,
her friend Karlo and their two dogs, Tyagi and Medusa, were all killed in the resulting
blaze when the battery of a self-converted e-bike caught fire while on charge
overnight. It is believed the battery attached to the converted bike was bought
from private seller on an online marketplace.
Now, with Christmas just around the corner, she's urging festive
shoppers to avoid 'too good to be true' bargains on light electrical vehicles,
such as e-bikes and e-scooters, and accessories such as batteries.
---- "Natasha would have been so scared,
and that’s how she spent the last living moments of her life. That’s what makes
me feel heartbroken. Karlo had no clue his converted e-bike posed this sort of
danger. They both loved each other very much. They were so lovely together.
Karlo was so patient with Natasha and Natasha was so authentic and thoughtful.
"These are fires that are so fast
acting, they consume your whole environment within seconds, and the fumes and
toxicity that the fire projects are lethal. I think people think that if you
can buy a battery from a well-known marketplace that it must be okay.
"Externally a product might appear
safe but that might not be true. I also can’t stress enough that you make sure
your charger and battery are compatible. Something as simple as a mismatch in
battery and charger can be devastating."
New research by the charity Electrical
Safety First shows just under one in 10 people in Britain (9%) are considering
purchasing an e-bike, e-scooter or conversion kit this Christmas.
Ehsia and Electrical Safety First are
urging anyone who buys one of these, or purchases batteries for their existing
E-bike or scooter, to stick to reputable high street retailers and to avoid
doing any modifications themselves.
Warning of the deadly consequences of
'bargain' deals on these products online, Ehsia said: “It's important for
people to understand there are reasons why certain products cost so much money,
and it’s because they must go through rigorous safety testing. If you can’t
afford a proper well-made e-bike, simply don’t have one. My life will never be
the same because my sister is no longer here.”
Woman dies in horror house fire after e-bike battery explodes as sister
issues warning - The Mirror
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and the penultimate weekend before Christmas. What new mischief will
Team Trump think up for Christmas? Have a great weekend everyone.
The more I learn about people, the more I like my dog.
Mark Twain
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