Baltic
Dry Index. 2193 -12
Brent Crude 60.14
Spot Gold 4300 US 2 Year Yield 3.51 -0.01
US Federal Debt. 38.414 trillion
US GDP 31.643 trillion.
Nobody spends somebody else's money as carefully as he spends his own.
Milton Friedman
In the stock casinos, no sign of a Santa Claus rally. Perhaps this year Santa Claus isn’t coming due to AI messing up his sense of direction.
Will Berkshire Hathaway’s massive cash pile get deployed in a looming 2026 stock market crash?
South Korea stocks lead losses in Asia for a
second day as tech sell-off continues on Wall Street
Published Mon, Dec 15 2025 6:52 PM EST
Asia-Pacific market fell across the board
Tuesday, tracking Wall Street declines as investors continued to rotate out of
the artificial intelligence trade in the U.S.
Shares of AI plays, like Oracle and Broadcom, slipped more than 5% and
2% respectively, while Microsoft also
saw some losses.
Over in Asia, South Korea’s Kospi led losses in the
region for a second straight day, losing 1.78%, while the small-cap Kosdaq
plunged 2.12%.
Shares of Korea Zinc plunged as much as
11.24% after the company reportedly agreed to sell $1.9 billion of shares to a
joint venture controlled by the U.S. government and unnamed U.S.-based
strategic investors, according to Reuters.
Medical treatment company ADEL signed a
drug development deal with French pharma giant Sanofi worth up to $1.04
billion, according to the South Korean-based company late Monday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.27%,
dragged by basic materials and real estate stocks, while the Topix dropped
1.32%. Japan’s flash composite PMI indicated a softer
expansion in December, coming in at 51.5 compared to the previous month’s 52.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped
1.47%, weighed down by basic materials and energy stocks, while the mainland
Chinese CSI 300 was down 0.92%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.29%,
reversing earlier gains.
Flash purchasing managers index
numbers from S&P Global showed that business activity
expanded at a slower pace in Australia in December, with the composite PMI
falling to 51.1 from November’s 52.6.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 lost 0.16%
after beginning
the session in positive territory.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped
marginally, while the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.59%.
South
Korea stocks lead losses in Asia for a second day as tech sell-off continues on
Wall Street
CNBC Daily Open: Debt worries continue to weigh on
AI-related stocks
Published Mon, Dec 15 2025 8:34 PM EST
U.S. stocks of late have been shaky as
investors turn away from artificial intelligence shares, especially those
related to AI infrastructure, such as Oracle, Broadcom and CoreWeave.
The worry is that those companies are
running into high levels of debt to finance their multibillion-dollar deals.
Oracle, for instance, said Wednesday it
would need to raise
capital expenditure by an additional $15 billion for its current
fiscal year and increase its lease commitments for data centers. The company is
turning to debt
to finance all that.
The stock lost 2.7% on Monday, while
shares of CoreWeave, its fellow player in the AI data center trade dropped
around 8%. Broadcom also retreated over concerns over margin compression,
sliding about 5.6%.
That said, the broader market was not
affected too adversely as investors continued rotating into sectors such as
consumer discretionary and industrials. The S&P 500 slipped 0.16%,
the Dow Jones Industrial
Average ticked down just 0.09% and the Nasdaq Composite, comprising more
tech firms, fell 0.59%.
The broader market performance suggests
that the fears are mostly contained within the AI infrastructure space.
“It definitely requires the ROI [return on
investment] to be there to keep funding this AI investment,” Matt Witheiler,
head of late-stage growth at Wellington Management, told CNBC’s “Money Movers”
on Monday. “From what we’ve seen so far that ROI is there.”
Witheiler said the bullish side of the
story is that, “every single AI company on the planet is saying if you give me
more compute I can make more revenue.”
The ready availability of clients,
according to that argument, means those companies that provide the compute —
Oracle and CoreWeave — just need to make sure their finances are in order.
CNBC
Daily Open: Debt worries continue to weigh on AI-related stocks
Stock futures are little changed as traders await
payrolls report: Live updates
Updated Tue, Dec 16 2025 7:00 PM EST
Stock futures traded near the flatline
Monday night as traders anticipated the release of November’s jobs report.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
21 points, or 0.04%. S&P
500 futures slipped 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped
nearly 0.2%.
The three benchmark U.S. indexes closed
Monday in the red, pressured by losses in key artificial intelligence names.
In regular trading, Broadcom lost 5.6%,
while software company ServiceNow sank
11.5% and Oracle fell
2.7%. Microsoft shares
also ended the session lower as investors continued to take profits from
high-flying AI trades and move into other areas of the market, including health
care and utilities. The U.S. stock market is still heading for a winning year
with gains across each of the eleven S&P 500 sectors.
“I think for the next four, five, six
months, there is some runway here when you look at the real economy corners of
the market,” Chris Verrone, head of technical and macro research at Strategas,
said Monday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.”
“The groups that I think are starting to
inflect here have shown us that,” he added. “Where have we seen the new high
expansion? Industrials, financials, discretionary, materials. There’s a very
real economy feel to this.”
November’s jobs report, which will be out
Tuesday morning, could be a catalyst for stocks. Economists polled by Dow Jones
predict that nonfarm payrolls grew by 50,000, down sharply from the 119,000
jobs added in September. They also see the unemployment rate coming in
at 4.5%, compared to the rate of 4.4% in September. October’s retail sales
report is also due.
The November consumer price index will be
released on Thursday.
Stock
market today: Live updates
In other news.
US
squeeze on Venezuela oil won’t create global crunch
December
15, 2025 7:30 AM GMT
LONDON,
Dec 15 (Reuters) - The United States' tightening grip on Venezuela’s oil
exports could strangle the country's crude output and cut off President Nicolas
Maduro's main economic lifeline, but it will have limited impact on the global
market.
The
U.S. Coast Guard last week seized in
mid-ocean a
supertanker carrying Venezuelan crude to Cuba, marking a step-up in
Washington's campaign against Caracas as the U.S. military continues to build
up its biggest presence in the Caribbean since the Cuban missile crisis.
The
U.S. is preparing to
intercept more
ships transporting Venezuelan oil, Reuters reported last Thursday, while
Washington has also imposed new sanctions on Maduro's family, six crude tankers
and shipping companies linked to them.
The
military chokehold on Venezuela is intended to deter shipment of Venezuelan oil
via the expanding "dark fleet" - unregulated, sanctioned and
uninsured ships also used extensively by Russia and Iran.
There
are at least a dozen sanctioned crude tankers already inside Venezuela's
exclusive economic maritime zone, according to Reuters analysis of LSEG data –
many of which are now at risk of being seized.
CRUDE
REALITY
The
pressure is already having an impact on Venezuela's oil industry.
The
country’s crude exports had spiked in September to over 1 million barrels per
day, the highest since February 2019, likely because state-run oil company
PDVSA was depleting inventories in anticipation of tightening restrictions.
Venezuelan
crude exports are now set to drop in December to 702,000 bpd, the lowest since
May, according to data from analytics firm Kpler.
Meanwhile,
there are signs that Asian buyers are asking for deeper discounts for
Venezuelan crude to accommodate the growing trading risk.
The
tightening restrictions have also led to a drop in Venezuelan crude production,
which declined by roughly 150,000 bpd in November from a month earlier to
860,000 bpd, following several months of production hovering above 1 million
bpd, according to the International Energy Agency.
The
drop is partly due to declining exports, meaning output could decline further
if exports are constrained as Venezuela's storage fills up.
On
top of this, production could be severely curtailed if U.S. restrictions impede
imports of naphtha and diluents that are critical for the extraction and
processing of Venezuelan oil.
Over
two-thirds of Venezuela's oil production is of so-called heavy grade that is
tar-like when extracted. Naphtha is used to reduce the oil’s viscosity,
enabling it to flow through pipelines for export via terminals and tankers.
Venezuela's
six refineries can produce naphtha but have suffered from years of disrepair,
leading the country's upstream oil industry to become heavily reliant on
imports.
Venezuelan
imports of naphtha and chemicals are set to drop to 39,000 bpd in December,
compared with 54,000 bpd in November and 89,000 bpd in October, according to
Kpler.
It
is hard to estimate how much production will be impacted by naphtha shortages,
however, as Venezuela imported large volumes in recent years that may have been
placed partially into storage.
But,
regardless, a collapse in naphtha imports puts Venezuela’s production at high
risk.
A
U.S. CARVE-OUT
Venezuela's
heavy crude production is unlikely to stop completely, though, regardless of
the rising tensions, because President Donald Trump’s administration has issued
Chevron (CVX.N),
opens new tab ,
the second-largest U.S. oil producer, with a special licence to continue
operating its joint ventures in Venezuela’s Orinoco belt, which produce around
250,000 bpd.
Chevron
exports around 150,000 bpd of crude from Venezuela to the U.S. Gulf Coast,
where refineries were built decades ago to process heavy grades from Mexico,
Canada and Venezuela.
Putting
all of this together, Venezuela's oil production could decline by between
300,000 to 500,000 bpd because of lower exports and production restrictions,
according to Reuters estimates.
This
figure, however, is unlikely to have much of an impact on today's well-supplied
global oil market, which faces the prospect of a severe glut next year. Any
shortfalls in the production of heavy crude would likely be offset by sharply
increased output from Canada and the Gulf of Mexico, which also produce these
types of grades.
Indeed,
installing a U.S.-friendly government that will lead to the removal of
sanctions on Caracas could lead to a rapid revival of oil production in
Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest oil
reserves of
around 303 billion barrels.
The
escalating tensions around Venezuela are already having a profound impact on
the country's oil industry, but these effects are unlikely to reverberate
across the world – unless, of course, the Maduro regime does fall, kicking off
a rush of western energy majors back into the oil-rich nation.
US squeeze on Venezuela oil won’t create global crunch | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Japan business mood hits 4-year high, keeps alive BOJ rate-hike view
December 15, 2025 6:35 AM GMT
TOKYO, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Big Japanese
manufacturers' business sentiment hit a four-year high in the three months to
December, a closely watched survey showed on Monday, reinforcing market
expectations the central bank will raise interest rates this week.
But firms expect conditions to worsen
three months ahead as they fret over the impact of higher U.S. tariffs and soft
consumption, highlighting uncertainty over how far the Bank of
Japan (BOJ) could eventually push up borrowing costs.
The headline index measuring big
manufacturers' business confidence stood at +15 in December, the BOJ's
"tankan" survey showed, up from +14 in September and matching a
median market forecast.
The reading, which marked the third
straight quarter of improvement, was the highest since December 2021 in a sign
firms were weathering the hit from higher U.S. tariffs for now.
An index gauging big non-manufacturers'
sentiment stood at +34 in December, unchanged from September and roughly in
line with market forecasts for a reading of +35.
"All in all, the tankan backs up
dominant market views the BOJ will raise rates in December. Unless a huge shock
hits the economy or markets, it is likely to proceed with a hike," said
Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus.
Big firms expect to increase capital
expenditure by 12.6% in the current fiscal year ending in March 2026, the
tankan showed, compared with a median market forecast for a 12% rise.
Sources have told Reuters the BOJ is
likely to raise its short-term policy rate to 0.75% from 0.5% at its December
18-19 meeting on receding fears President Donald Trump's tariffs will severely
hurt the export-reliant economy.
Big firms saw sales prices as having risen
in the fourth quarter and expect prices to keep increasing in the coming three
months, the tankan showed, a sign solid demand was enabling them to pass on
higher costs to consumers.
Underscoring uncertainty over the outlook,
however, the tankan showed companies projecting business conditions to worsen
three months ahead.
While fading uncertainty over U.S. trade
policy helped brighten the business mood, many firms worried that labour
shortages and the hit to consumption from higher prices clouded the outlook, a
BOJ official told a briefing.
An index measuring job conditions showed
firms saw the job market at its tightest since 1991 when Japan was experiencing
an asset-inflated bubble, suggesting labour shortages could curb growth in an
economy facing a dwindling working-age population.
Still, analysts view the tightening job
market as working in favour of steady wage gains, a key prerequisite the
central bank has set to continue raising interest rates.
"With firms reporting acute labour
shortages, the Board can rest assured that the virtuous cycle between higher
wages and higher prices will remain intact," said Abhijit Surya, senior
APAC economist at Capital Economics, predicting the BOJ to push its policy rate
up to 1.75% in 2027.
Underscoring the BOJ's focus on wages, the
central bank on Monday released the findings of a separate and rare poll that
it conducted via its branch offices about next year's pay outlook.
The poll showed most of the BOJ's branches
expected firms in their regions to offer wage increases in 2026 that matched
those of 2025.
Japan's economy shrank in the third
quarter as exports fell in the face of U.S. tariffs. But analysts expect growth
to rebound in the current quarter, as exports and factory output show signs of
recovery.
With inflation exceeding its 2% target for
well over three years, a growing number of BOJ board members have signaled
their readiness to vote for a rate hike to avoid being behind the curve in
addressing the risk of too-high inflation.
Companies expect inflation to hit 2.4%
one, three and five years ahead, the tankan showed, suggesting corporate
inflation expectations are becoming anchored around the BOJ's 2% target.
Japan business
mood hits 4-year high, keeps alive BOJ rate-hike view | Reuters
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Off topic but close.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, more on a problem that’s only going to get worse with each passing year as batteries age and proliferate.
NSW inquest told how exploding lithium-ion batteries caused
volatile fires killing three
15 December 2025
An inquest into how and why lithium-ion
batteries catch fire has been told three people became trapped and died within
minutes after devices exploded.
Deputy State Coroner Kasey Pearce was
overseeing the inquest in Sydney that was focused on the specific circumstances
of four fires — two of which were fatal.
Her probe was aimed at so-called
micro-mobility vehicles, which mainly covered e-bikes, e-scooters and
hoverboards.
Burnt but alive
In his opening address, Counsel
Assisting David Kell today gave an overview of each fire, and how lithium-ion
battery fires burn.
"The volatile and complex fire
behaviour is difficult and dangerous compared to other fires," he said.
The first fire happened in short-stay
accommodation at Cabarita Beach in Northern NSW in September 2023, a day after
a man picked up his repaired e-bike battery.
"A fire ignited in his room and a
neighbour rescued him," Mr Kell told the inquest.
"He suffered severe burns to 40 per
cent of his body and was placed in an induced coma.
"Thankfully he survived."
Mr Kell said a food delivery driver was
injured in December 2023, when his second-hand e-bike battery exploded in his
Annandale bedroom in Sydney.
"Around 3am the man returned to his
unit, and at 5am plugged the battery into a power outlet in his room.
"He sustained significant burns and
another flatmate had burns to 20 per cent of his body."
Explosions and death
Mr Kell told the court the last two
fires were fatal.
The counsel assisting said two women
died in a two-storey townhouse at Teralba, south of Newcastle, in February
2024.
At the time, the women were identified
as Patricia Kerr and Therese Harris.
Mr Kell said evidence would show that a
compromised e-bike battery — belonging to a visiting family member — was to
blame.
More
NSW inquest told how exploding lithium-ion batteries caused volatile
fires killing three - ABC News
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
When a man spends his own money to buy something for himself, he
is very careful about how much he spends and how he spends it. When a man
spends his own money to buy something for someone else, he is still very
careful about how much he spends, but somewhat less what he spends it on. When
a man spends someone else's money to buy something for himself, he is very
careful about what he buys, but doesn't care at all how much he spends. And
when a man spends someone else's money on someone else, he does't care how much
he spends or what he spends it on. And that's government for you.
Milton Friedman
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