Baltic
Dry Index. 2694 -33 Brent Crude 62.29
Spot Gold 4208 US 2 Year Yield 3.57 +0.01
US Federal Debt. 38.385 trillion
US GDP 31.628 trillion.
“The American people don’t know how good they have it.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Sunday December 7, 2025. Stealing from UK P. M. Macmillan, 1957.
It is Fed meeting day one and the stock casinos are nervous. What if Chairman Powell’s gang don’t cut interest rates tomorrow, or cut but say that the days of rate cuts are over for 2026?
They wouldn’t do that, would they? Powell’s riposte to Donald J. Trump’s criticisms?
Below, despite good news for Nvidia and a takeover war for Warner Brothers, the punters in the stock casinos suspect a top.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly fall following Wall
Street losses ahead of Fed rate decision
Published Mon, Dec 8 2025 6:57 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets were mostly lower on
Tuesday after losses on Wall Street, with investors holding back ahead of the
U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on Dec. 10 stateside.
The central bank is widely expected to cut
rates by another 25 basis points at its final meeting of the year, bringing the
Federal Funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%. However, experts said the Fed will then take
a more data-dependent stance.
“I would not be surprised for Jerome
Powell to be like, ‘We’ve cut, and now we’re in a place where we really need to
watch the data,’ and he’ll stop just short of being hawkish, because we have
seen the softness in the labor market,” said Stephen Kolano, chief investment
officer at Integrated Partners.
The Nikkei 225 was up 0.16% in a
volatile trading session, while the broad-based Topix was flat. Tech gains
limited the Nikkei’s losses, with Disco Corp and Konica Minolta climbing
5.42% and 4.91% respectively.
South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.31%, but the
small-cap Kosdaq was 0.2% higher.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined
0.32% after the country’s central bank held its policy rate at 3.6% as
expected.
“The recent data suggest the risks to
inflation have tilted to the upside, but it will take a little longer to assess
the persistence of inflationary pressures,” the Reserve Bank of Australia
said in a statement following the rate decision.
Hong Kong Hang Seng index fell 0.84%,
while mainland China’s CSI 300 index was down 0.14%.
U.S. stock futures were slightly higher
Monday night, buoyed by President Donald Trump’s approval of Nvidia H200 chip sales to
China in a deal that gives the U.S. government a hefty cut.
In after-hours trading, Nvidia climbed 2.2% following
a Truth Social post Monday evening that said the
chipmaking giant could ship its H200 chips to “approved customers” in China and
elsewhere under the condition that a quarter of the sales will be paid to the
U.S. government.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 pulled back
0.35%, while the Nasdaq
Composite slid 0.14%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed
215.67 points, or 0.45%.
Asia
markets fall, mirroring Wall Street losses ahead of Fed decision
CNBC Daily Open: Investors are loving the
Paramount-Warner Bros-Netflix drama
Published Mon, Dec 8 2025 8:29 PM EST
Paramount
Skydance on Monday launched a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery,
following Netflix’s announcement
last week that it had reached a deal to buy the HBO owner.
The company is “here to finish what we
started,” CEO David Ellison told CNBC, upping the ante with a $30-per-share,
all-cash offer compared to Netflix’s $27.75-per-share, cash-and-stock offer for
WBD’s streaming and studio assets.
Investors were certainly pleased, sending
Paramount shares 9% higher and WBD’s stock up 4.4%.
Another development that traders cheered
was U.S. President Donald Trump permitting Nvidia to export its more
advanced H200 artificial intelligence chips to “approved customers” in China
and other countries — so long as some of that money flows back to the U.S.
Nvidia shares rose about 2% in extended trading.
Major U.S. indexes, however, fell
overnight, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s final rate-setting
meeting of the year on Wednesday stateside. Markets are expecting a nearly 90%
chance of a quarter-point cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Rate-cut hopes have buoyed stocks. “The
market action you’ve seen the last one or two weeks is kind of essentially
baking in the very high likelihood of a 25 basis point cut,” said Stephen
Kolano, chief investment officer at Integrated Partners.
But that means a potential downside is
deeper if things don’t go as expected.
“For some very unlikely reason, if they
don’t cut, forget it. I think markets are down 2% to 3%,” Kolano added.
In that case, investors will be waiting,
impatiently, for the Fed meeting next year — hoping for a more satisfying
conclusion.
CNBC
Daily Open: Investors are loving the Paramount-Warner Bros-Netflix drama
Central bank body BIS raises concerns of gold and
stocks double bubble
LONDON, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The combination
of gold and share prices soaring in unison is a phenomenon not seen in at least
half a century and raises questions of a potential bubble in both, global
central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements, says.
While equity markets continue to be driven
by AI and tech gains, gold's 60% surge this year is set to be its biggest since
1979, fuelling debate about whether its traditional role as a safe-haven asset
has changed.
"Gold has behaved very differently
this year compared to its usual pattern," Hyun Song Shin, Economic Adviser
and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the BIS said as it released
its final report of the year on Monday.
"The interesting phenomenon this time
has been that gold has become much more like a speculative asset."
Dubbed the central bank to the world's
central banks, the BIS has given regular warnings about potential stock market
bubbles in recent years, but its concern around the co-movement with gold is
two-fold.
Where would investors shelter if stocks
and gold both crash. And what could it mean for central banks and other reserve
managers given some have been heavy buyers of gold.
The BIS' analysis concluded that this year
has been the first time gold and the S&P 500 have jointly exhibited
"explosive behaviour" in the last 50 years.
Not only is gold up 60% this year, it is
up more than 150% since 2022 when the post-COVID pandemic surge in inflation
began to impact markets, alongside Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent
Western sanctions on Moscow.
Another possible bubble warning sign is
that retail investors have also been piling in.
Gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) prices
have been consistently trading at a premium relative to their net asset value
(NAV) this year, signalling "strong buying pressure coupled with
impediments to arbitrage," the BIS said.
Central banks' purchases have
"clearly set a very firm tone in the price of gold," Shin added.
"Whenever you have prices actually
doing quite well, you will see other investors jumping in, and certainly retail
investors have also taken part (in the rally), and not just in gold".
GROWING FRAGILITY
The BIS gave a broader warning too about
the "growing fragility" of the risk-on environment amid the concerns
about artificial intelligence (AI) valuations and the recent 20% dives in
cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.
The European Central Bank and Bank of
England have both raised their own AI bubble concerns in recent weeks and the
risk of an abrupt burst if investors' rosy expectations are not met.
Shin said the profits being made by the AI
firms - now spending enormous amounts on data centers - was an important
difference between now and the "dotcom bubble" of the early 2000s
when firms weren't making money.
The "fundamental question",
however, is whether those expenditures will be seen as being justified in the
long run, Shin said, adding that the other key determinant for markets will be
how the global economy holds up next year.
"So far, activity has been
surprisingly resilient," Shin said.
The BIS is also watching where the dollar
goes from here. This year it is headed for its biggest annual drop since the
Lehman Brothers collapse in 2007.
"After the April episode (when U.S.
President Donald Trump announced sweeping trade tariff plans), the dollar has
been relatively stable," Shin said.
"I think the hedging behaviour of
non-U.S. investors is going to be a very, very important input into how markets
will co-move from here."
Central bank body
BIS raises concerns of gold and stocks double bubble
In other news, trade wars are not so good for
US farmers, it turns out.
Trump unveils $12 billion aid package for farmers
hit by trade war
By Nandita Bose, Leah Douglas and Steve Holland
December 8, 2025 11:46 PM GMT
WASHINGTON, Dec 8 (Reuters) - U.S.
President Donald Trump on Monday unveiled a $12 billion aid package for American
farmers, the latest government effort to shore up a key political
constituency hurt by the financial fallout from his trade policies.
Farm groups and Republican farm-state
lawmakers have sought the aid in part to support farmers with purchases of
seeds, fertilizer and other expenses for next year's growing season.
The aid package aims to support a loyal
voting bloc that has largely stood by Trump despite facing billions
in lost sales from his trade war with China.
Trump announced the aid at a roundtable at
the White House alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Agriculture
Secretary Brooke Rollins and members of Congress. Growers of corn, cotton,
sorghum, soybeans, rice, cattle, wheat and potatoes attended the roundtable, a
White House official said.
"This relief will provide much needed
certainty to farmers as they get this year's harvest to market and look ahead
to next year's crops, and it'll help them continue their efforts to lower food
prices for American families," Trump said.
Rollins said that $11 billion of the aid
will go to row crop farmers and will be disbursed by February 28. The
administration is holding back the remaining $1 billion for fruits, vegetables
and other crops to finalize the details, Rollins said.
Bessent said the payments will be a
"liquidity bridge during a period of adjustment" to support farmers
until they see benefits from Trump's trade deals and other policies.
The money for the package will come from
the Commodity Credit Corporation, a discretionary USDA fund, and will be offset
by tariff revenue, Rollins told reporters at the White House later on Monday,
without providing further details.
Payments will be calculated based on how
many acres farmers have planted, their production costs and other factors, said
Richard Fordyce, USDA under secretary for farm production and conservation.
More
Trump
unveils $12 billion aid package for farmers hit by trade war | Reuters
China’s exports to U.S. extend double-digit
declines, dropping 29% in November, despite trade truce
Published Sun, Dec 7 2025 10:23 PM EST
China’s U.S.-bound goods fell for an
eighth straight month despite a recent trade deal between the two economies,
even as overall exports surpassed market expectations in November as
manufacturers loaded up shipments to other markets.
Outbound shipments surged 5.9% last month
in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, China’s customs data showed Monday,
topping economists’ forecast for a 3.8% growth in a Reuters poll. That growth
marked a rebound from an unexpected 1.1%
drop in October —
the first contraction since March 2024.
Imports rose 1.9% last month, missing
expectations for a 3% rise, as a protracted housing downturn and rising job
insecurity continued to be drag on domestic consumption. Growth was higher
compared to 1% in October.
Chinese officials have
renewed pledges to expand imports and work toward balancing trade amid
widespread criticism against its aggressive exports.
Exports to the U.S. plunged 28.6% in
November, marking the eighth straight month of double-digit declines in
shipments to the world’s largest consumer market, even after President Xi
Jinping and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump reached a deal in
South Korea in late October. Imports from America shrank 19% from a year earlier.
“Despite the trade truce, the U.S. still
imposes higher tariffs on China than on [many] other countries,” said Gary Ng,
senior economist at Natixis, adding that Chinese exporters have likely
continued to utilize their facilities in third markets to export to the U.S. “It
can become a future norm,” Ng noted.
Levies on Chinese goods remain at around
47.5% according
to Peterson Institute for International Economics. Beijing’s
tariffs on imports from the U.S. stand at around 32%.
So far this year, China’s exports to the
U.S. have declined 18.9% year on year, while imports have dropped 13.2%.
Shrinking U.S. exports in November were
more than offset by surging shipments to other markets, particularly China’s
two largest trading blocs, the European Union and the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations. China’s exports to ASEAN and the EU rose over over 8% and nearly
15%, respectively.
In the first 11 months this year, China’s
overall exports grew 5.4% compared to the same period in 2024 while imports
fell 0.6%, taking its trade surplus to $1.076 trillion this year as of
November, up 21.6% year on year.
More
China's exports in
November massively beat expectations on U.S. trade truce
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Bessent
says U.S. will finish the year with 3% GDP growth, sees ‘very strong’ holiday
season
Published
Sun, Dec 7 2025 3:14 PM EST Updated Sun, Dec 7 2025 3:22 PM EST
Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent said on
Sunday that it’s been a “very strong” holiday shopping season so far and
predicted that the U.S. economy would end the year on strong footing.
“The
economy has been better than we thought. We’ve had 4% GDP growth in a couple of
quarters,” he said in an interview on CBS
News’ ‘Face the Nation.’ “We’re going to finish the year, despite the
Schumer shutdown, with 3% real GDP growth.”
Gross
domestic product contracted by 0.6% year-over-year for the first three months
of 2025, according to the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. The second quarter of the year saw a 3.8% increase.
Initial
estimates from the BEA for the third quarter economic results are scheduled to
publish on
December 23. The latest estimate
from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, on December 5, puts third-quarter annual
GDP growth at 3.5%.
Consumers,
whose spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S.
GDP,
remain gloomy about the state of the economy. The University of
Michigan’s consumer sentiment
survey came
in at 53.3 in December, up 4.5% from November but down 28% from this time last
year.
The latest report on
inflation,
delayed by the government shutdown, showed consumer prices rising 3%
year-over-year in September, including a 3.1% uptick in cost for food at home.
As
rising prices continue to affect consumers, President Donald Trump has pushed
back on the idea that Americans are struggling financially.
“The
word ‘affordability’ is a con job by the Democrats,” Trump said during a
cabinet meeting on Tuesday. “The word ‘affordability’ is a Democrat scam.”
Lately,
voters have expressed frustration with Trump’s handling of the economy. Around
two-thirds of registered voters say the Trump administration has fallen short
on the economy and the cost of living, according to a recent
poll from NBC News.
When
asked about Trump’s comments on Sunday, Bessent said that the administration
was dealing with inflation issues leftover from the Biden administration and
pointed to media coverage as a source of Americans’ view of the economy.
“The
American people don’t know how good they have it,” he said. “Now, Democrats
created scarcity, whether it was in energy or over-regulation, that we are now
seeing this affordability problem, and I think next year we’re going to move on
to prosperity.”
Bessent: U.S. will
finish the year with 3% GDP growth
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Off topic but close.
What is the 'mystery virus' taking over Chinese hospitals as UK
officials issue warning
8 December 2025
Hospitals across China
are battling a fast-spreading wave of influenza that many on social media have
described as a “mystery virus”, as cases surge well beyond typical winter
levels.
The outbreak is being driven primarily by the H3N2 strain of influenza A, which is sweeping through major cities
including Beijing and Tianjin and spreading across provinces such as Hebei, Henan, Guangdong,
Fujian, Shandong and Shanxi. Seventeen provincial-level regions are reporting
high levels of flu activity, with the remainder at medium levels.
Reports from Chinese
hospitals describe corridors filled with children waiting for treatment, while
online pharmacy data shows a 500% surge in purchases of antiviral flu drugs.
Despite the dramatic
scenes, researchers say the outbreak is not an entirely new virus but an
aggressive and fast-moving wave of H3N2. Patients with flu-like symptoms are
currently testing positive for influenza in around 51% of cases, which is lower
than the peaks seen over the past three years.
However, infections
clustered in schools are rising sharply, with children aged between 5 and
fourteen being affected far more than other groups.
The H3N2 subtype accounts
for more than 95% of confirmed influenza A cases, although small numbers of
H1N1 and influenza B cases are also being detected.
Concerns intensified
after Peng Zhibin, a specialist at the China CDC, confirmed that China’s flu
infection rate had risen rapidly in late November.
Social media posts show
children queueing in packed hospital hallways, contributing to fears of another
widespread epidemic.
One Beijing resident
wrote online that they visited Beijing Children’s Hospital on the evening of
November 23 at around 8pm and did not return home until 1am, adding that the
flu situation had become “terrifying”.
More
What is the 'mystery virus' taking over Chinese hospitals as UK officials
issue warning
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
EMEC completes
demonstration work of battery storage, tidal power hydrogen project in Scotland
The
‘world-first’ project includes components from Orbital Power, Invinity Energy
Systems and ITM Power.
December 5, 2025
The European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC)
has completed demonstration work of a combined battery storage, tidal power and
hydrogen production plant in Orkney, Scotland.
The EMEC described the work as a
“world-first” integration of the three technologies; during periods of high
generation, power generated by the tidal turbine charged the battery, powered
the hydrogen electrolyser and exported power to the grid; during periods of low
generation, the battery discharged power to the electrolyser to keep it in
operation.
The successful testing follows a
recommendation made by EMEC and Offshore Renewable Energy (ORE) Catapult, which found as many as 30 tidal stream projects
around the Scottish coast that could
provide power to local users without having to connect to the national grid.
The addition of batteries to tidal power projects further improves their
resilience and flexibility, making them a more viable option for delivering
reliable power without the need for a grid connection.
Indeed, the EMEC said that this
combination of technologies “effectively smoothed out the cyclical nature of
tidal energy”, by ensuring a consistent supply of power, despite differences in
generation conditions. Technology was provided by Orbital Power, which
delivered its O2 tidal turbine; Invinity Energy Systems, which supplied
vanadium flow batteries; and ITM Power, which delivered the electrolyser.
“This unique project showcases the
strengths of our vanadium flow battery technology as a high-cycling,
non-degrading and fundamentally safe form of long-duration energy storage,”
said Invinity CEO Jonathan Marren. “With this exciting demonstration, EMEC have
proven the suitability of vanadium flow batteries for two emerging applications
in the form of green hydrogen production and tidal power firming.
The news follows the advancement of Invinity’s 20.7MWh vanadium flow
battery, the UK’s largest, which the company
expects to enter into commercial operation, alongside a solar PV project in the
south-east of England, next year.
‘Responding swiftly’ to testing
scenarios
The project has received support and
funding from a number of organisations, including the €310 million (£270.69
million) Interreg North-West Europe initiative and the €26.7 million
FORWARD2030 programme, both of which receive funding from the EU.
The EMEC also completed testing work on
“all planned operational scenarios”, including successfully responding to the
tripping of an electrolyser “within seconds” to prevent a complete shutdown.
The testing also highlighted potential areas for improvement, including in
better battery management and improved electrolyser controls.
“Bringing together three innovative
technologies was a complex challenge, but reaching this milestone has provided
invaluable insights,” said EMEC operations and maintenance manager Leonore Van
Velzen.
“Running all planned scenarios,
responding swiftly to an electrolyser trip and identifying opportunities for
greater automation have given us a clear roadmap for optimising future systems.
The trial also highlights an alternative pathway for tidal energy in scenarios
where grid export capacity is limited, a likely feature in the future as we
transition to a fully renewable energy system.”
EMEC completes battery storage, tidal power hydrogen project
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Everyone knew it was impossible, until a fool who didn't know
came along and did it.
Albert Einstein
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