Baltic
Dry Index. 2727 -87 Brent Crude 63.78
Spot Gold 4236 US 2 Year Yield 3.56 +0.04
US Federal Debt. 38.381 trillion
US GDP 31.626 trillion.
The history of government management of money has, except for a few short happy periods, been one of incessant fraud and deception.
Friedrich August von Hayek
It is Fed week in the US stock casinos once again. Anything less than at least another quarter percentage point interest rate cut will come as a shock to the US stock casinos.
I don’t see Fed Chairman Powell and his gang about to deliver a pre-Christmas shock to the stock casinos.
But what if that cut is already priced in?
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors
parse China trade data
Published Sun, Dec 7 2025 6:50 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on
Monday as investors parsed fresh trade data from China.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid 0.84%,
while the CSI 300 rose 1.11% after
China’s exports jumped more than expected in November.
Outbound shipments surged 5.9% in November
in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, beating economists’ forecast for a
3.8% growth in a Reuters poll. That growth marked a rebound from an unexpected
1.1% drop in October, the first contraction since March 2024.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 slid 0.14%, while
the Topix added 0.25%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.35%, and the
small-cap Kosdaq traded 0.45% higher.
Revisions released by Tokyo on Monday show Japan’s
economy shrank more sharply between July and September than first estimated.
Official data showed that third-quarter GDP fell at an annualized rate of 2.3%,
worse than economists’ median forecast of a 2.0% drop and a
preliminary reading of a 1.8% decline.
Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 slid 0.17%.
Investors will be keeping an eye on the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia
decision as it kicks off its two-day meeting.
India’s Nifty 50 was flat at the
open. Shares of IndiGo fell
more than 5% after India’s aviation authority warned
the carrier on Saturday of potential regulatory action following
the airline’s cancellation of thousands of flights last week, leaving
passengers stranded.
The cancellations also prompted the
government to intervene and curb the spike in airfare prices caused by the
disruption. IndiGo, the nation’s largest airline, cited a pilot shortage.
According to a Reuters poll of economists,
the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain its cash rate at 3.60% on
Tuesday and keep it there through 2026.
Shares of Moore Threads, a Beijing-based
graphics processing unit (GPU) manufacturer, slipped over 5% after soaring by
more than 400% on its Shanghai debut last Friday following a $1.1 billion listing. The stock closed at 600.500
yuan, over five times its IPO price of 114.28 yuan.
Last Friday in the U.S, the three major
averages closed higher as the market sorted through a fresh slate of U.S.
economic releases. The S&P
500 edged higher to secure its fourth straight winning day, closing
0.19% higher at 6,870.40 and putting the index about 0.7% off its intraday
record.
The Nasdaq Composite increased
0.31% to settle at 23,578.13, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed
104.05 points, or 0.22%, to end the day at 47,954.99.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Hang Seng Index, CSI 300, Kospi, Nikkei 225
Stocks, bonds cautiously hopeful for Fed rate
relief
December 8, 2025 4:01 AM GMT
SYDNEY, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Share and bond
markets seemed guardedly optimistic on Monday that the Federal
Reserve would deliver a much-needed rate cut this week, though the
meeting looks set to be one of the most fractious in recent memory.
Futures imply around an 85% chance of a
quarter-point reduction in the 3.75% to 4.0% funds rate, so a steady decision
would be a seismic shock. A Reuters
poll of 108 analysts found only 19 tipping no change, and the rest a
cut.
"We expect at least two dissents in
favour of no action and that only a slim majority of the 19 FOMC participants
will indicate in their updated dots that a December cut was appropriate,"
wrote Michael Feroli, head of U.S. economics at JPMorgan, in a note.
The Federal Open Market Committee has not
had three or more dissents at a meeting since 2019, and that has happened just
nine times since 1990.
Feroli also thinks the Fed will cut in
January as insurance against a sustained weakening in the labour market, before
going on a lengthy policy pause. Markets currently see only a 24% chance of a
January move and a further easing is not fully priced until July.
Central banks in Canada,
Switzerland and Australia also meet this week and all are poised to hold
steady. The Swiss
National Bank might like to ease again to offset the strength of its
franc, but is already at 0% and reluctant to go negative.
A run of hot economic data has led markets
to abandon any hope of another easing from the Reserve
Bank of Australia and even price in a rate hike for late 2026.
Hopes for more Fed stimulus have helped
support equities in recent weeks, and both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq
futures were 0.1% firmer in Asian trade.
Earnings this week from Oracle (ORCL.N),
opens new tab and Broadcom will test the appetite for all things
AI-related, while Costco will provide colour on consumer demand.
More
Stocks,
bonds cautiously hopeful for Fed rate relief | Reuters
Wall St Week Ahead Fed's internal split puts
spotlight on Powell's rate guidance, dissents
December 6, 2025 7:27 AM GMT
NEW YORK, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The Federal
Reserve meeting next week is expected to be one of its most contentious in
years, and investors are focused on how divided policymakers are over an
expected interest-rate cut and what Chair Jerome Powell signals about the path
ahead.
Five of the 12 voting members of the
Federal Open Market Committee have voiced opposition
or skepticism about further easing, while three members of the
Washington-based Board of Governors favor a cut.
The FOMC has not had three or more
dissents at a meeting since 2019, and that has happened just nine times since
1990.
That split puts the dissents under a
microscope as investors look for signals at the Tuesday-Wednesday meeting on
the Fed's policy direction and internal dynamics.
"The Fed seems to be more divided
than it has been in a very, very long time, and just how divided will be of
interest because that will give some sense of perhaps where the Fed might lean
in the future," said Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles
Investments.
Rosen added that the uncertainty stems
from the Fed's challenge of balancing its twin goals of full employment and
stable inflation.
Inflation, as measured by the Personal
Consumption Expenditures Price Index, met expectations on Friday, while U.S.
consumer sentiment improved in December. The reports didn’t change expectations
for a cut next week.
Economic data on Thursday showed jobless
claims last week fell to the lowest
in more than three years, easing fears of a sharp labor market deterioration
and feeding rate cut expectations. A Chicago Fed
estimate suggested
the unemployment rate held near 4.4% in November.
Markets are pricing in an 84% chance of a
quarter-point cut at next week's meeting, LSEG data show.
The Fed last lowered the policy rate on
October 29, to a range of 3.75%-4.00% from 4.00%-4.25%, the second consecutive
25-basis-point cut this year.
Powell later jolted markets when he said
the likelihood of a cut in December was "not a foregone
conclusion".
Stocks reversed gains after that comment, as many investors had priced a rate
cut as a done deal.
Jeremiah Buckley, equities portfolio
manager at Janus Henderson, said the December meeting does not matter much for
markets in the long term. "Certainly, there could be some short-term
volatility, but what they do over the first half of 2026, I think, matters more
than December," he added.
Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new
tab index
has risen 16.6% so far this year. Tony Roth, CIO, Wilmington Trust, does not
expect stocks to move much if the Fed delivers a cut.
"The Fed move is really baked in at
this point. It's really going to be just about the Fed guidance," Roth
said. "And I think they're going to be pretty cautious. They're going to
talk about being data dependent."
Complicating the Fed's deliberations is a
backlog of economic data. The 43-day government shutdown, the longest in
history, delayed the November employment print until December 16, after
policymakers meet. The unemployment rate
for October will remain unknown as the shutdown prevented the
collection of data for the household survey used to calculate it.
Although somewhat dated, the Job Openings
and Labor Turnover Survey data, due December 9, would give markets a glimpse
into October's labor trends - especially layoffs - amid the current low-hiring,
low-firing environment.
More
Wall St Week Ahead
Fed's internal split puts spotlight on Powell's rate guidance, dissents |
Reuters
In other news, on the one hand and on the
other.
Here’s what lies ahead for the economy in 2026
December 7, “025
The prevailing opinion of what lies in
store for the U.S. economy in 2026 is a whole lot of uncertainty, according to
experts.
Across the board, financial institutions
and economists held a relatively positive outlook of growth in 2026 – though
they warn several factors could disrupt that.
Over the past year, President Donald
Trump’s trade wars have caused
the stock market to fluctuate wildly, while his mission
to deport millions of undocumented immigrants has shrunk
the labor market and reduced
Social Security revenue.
Trump’s tariff policies have also raised
U.S. household costs by an estimated $1,100 in 2025, according to the
nonpartisan group The Tax Foundation.
Some finance experts appear cautiously
optimistic that economic growth will be steady, albeit slow. But the looming
unknown is investment in artificial intelligence.
The economic experts relied on trends in
GDP, employment levels, consumer prices, inflation and other economic markers
to make their estimations.
The Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group made up of 38 countries
including the U.S., predicts Real GDP to slow by 1.7 percent next year, citing
sluggish employment growth, a slowdown in immigration, tariffs increasing
prices and the government’s cuts to non-defense, discretionary spending.
The economic group warns that “fiscal
policy is on an unsustainable trajectory” and that the “full impact of the
tariff increases… has likely not yet been felt.”
Some financial institutions held a more
positive outlook for U.S. Real GDP - the percentage change of the country’s
economic output, adjusted for inflation.
The Royal
Bank of Canada Wealth Management predicts 2.2 percent growth next
year. S&P
Global Inc. predicts Real GDP
growth of 2 percent but caveats that outlook by saying that “consumer spending
growth will hit a cycle low over the next two years.”
Morgan Stanley somewhat vaguely
predicted “Moderate Growth With a Range of Possibilities” in 2026,
but suggested the GDP could grow by 3.2 percent. While the bank expressed
positivity toward AI investments, it warned that other factors, such as tariffs
and immigration, could hit the economy harder than expected.
Consumer spending and price trends are
also key markers to determine how confident households are feeling in the
economy. More spending shows that people are able to afford goods, thus
stimulating the economy and job market.
Many have waited with bated breath over
recent months to see how tariffs would impact consumer prices.
For many investors, the boogeyman of 2026
is the supposed AI bubble.
There is widespread concern that financial
investment in the high-tech space is due to speculative excitement, and that
the technology’s practical application isn’t at a point where it can generate
genuine profit.
More
Here’s what lies
ahead for the economy in 2026
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Gold’s
bubble behaviour may signal paradigm shift
December
5, 2025 12:00 PM GMT
LONDON,
Dec 5 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Assets that rise rapidly above their long-term
trend are usually set for a fall. That’s what happened to gold after it peaked
in late 1979. Over the following five years, the price of the yellow metal fell
by nearly two-thirds. This year, gold has risen more than 60% in dollar terms,
its best performance in 46 years. Adjusted for inflation, gold has never been
more expensive. Either we are witnessing another bubble or it’s a paradigm
shift.
The
precious metal known as the eternal store of value has retained its purchasing
power over millennia. On examination, its market valuation tends to reflect
different monetary regimes. Gold reset higher following the credit collapse of
the 1920s, and jumped in the second half of the 1970s as the so-called “Great
Inflation” took hold; over the next two decades it remained in the doldrums as
price increases abated and real interest rates remained high; after Alan
Greenspan’s Federal Reserve slashed interest rates in the early 2000s, gold
enjoyed a long bull run. During the era of zero interest rates and quantitative
easing from 2008 to 2022 the price was volatile but its upward trend continued.
By
the turn of this decade it had become received wisdom that gold moves inversely
with long-term real interest rates. Thus its value swooned in 2022 when central
banks tightened the cost of borrowing and bond yields climbed. Then something
unexpected happened: gold started to rise exponentially even as inflation
turned down and inflation-adjusted bond yields rose.
Daniel
Oliver of Myrmikan Capital, a firm that invests in microcap gold miners, says
this regime shift was caused by then U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to
seize Russian foreign exchange reserves following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of
Ukraine in February 2022. This act shook the foundations of the international
monetary system in which the U.S. dollar had long served as lynchpin. Reserve
managers at a number of central banks started looking for an asset that could
not be seized and was not the liability of another sovereign. They returned to
the original reserve asset: gold.
During
each of the past three years, central banks have purchased over a thousand of
tonnes of bullion. Goldman Sachs expects these official purchases to continue
into next year. A number of central banks in the emerging world still own
relatively little gold. Earlier this year, for instance, China’s reported
holdings as a share of its total foreign exchange reserves stood at only 6.5%,
although some analysts believe Beijing’s official gold reserves massively
understate the true size of its hoard.
At
first glance, the gold chart over the past three years looks like a classic
investment bubble. But the irrational exuberance that normally accompanies a
mania is absent. Speculators are too busy obsessing about cryptocurrencies and
anything related to artificial intelligence to pay much attention to the
barbarous relic. The number of ounces of gold held in exchange-traded funds
remains more than 10% below the October 2020 high, according to Caesar Bryan,
portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund. Furthermore, the number of shares
outstanding in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF, which invests in publicly traded
companies involved in gold and silver mining, has fallen by around a third from
the 2020 peak.
More
Gold’s bubble
behaviour may signal paradigm shift | Reuters
UBS may cut further 10,000 jobs by 2027,
SonntagsBlick reports
December 7, 2025 9:27 AM GMT
VIENNA, Dec 7 (Reuters) - UBS (UBSG.S), opens
new tab may
cut an additional 10,000 jobs by 2027, Swiss paper SonntagsBlick reported on
Sunday, without citing where it obtained the information.
Responding to the report, UBS did not
confirm this number, but said it would "keep the number of jobs cuts in
Switzerland and globally as low as possible".
"The role reductions will take place
over the course of several years and will be mostly achieved through natural
attrition, early retirement, internal mobility and inhousing of external
roles," UBS said.
UBS has been cutting jobs as a result of
the integration of former rival Credit Suisse, which it bought in 2023.
A reduction of 10,000 jobs would equate to
a 9% cut in total jobs for the Swiss bank, which had around 110,000 employees
at the end of 2024.
UBS may cut further 10,000 jobs by 2027, SonntagsBlick reports | R
US consumer spending slows in September as high
prices curb demand
December 5, 2025 9:49 PM GMT
WASHINGTON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - U.S.
consumer spending increased moderately in September after three straight months
of solid gains, suggesting a loss of momentum in the economy at the end of the
third quarter as a lackluster labor market and rising cost of living curbed
demand.
The report from the Commerce Department on
Friday also showed annual inflation rose at its fastest pace in nearly 1-1/2
years in September. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on imported goods have raised
prices for consumers, though the increase has been gradual.
Trump is taking heat from Americans
frustrated over
high inflation, with his approval rating declining in recent weeks. A survey
from the University of
Michigan said
the overall tenor of households' views in early December was "broadly
somber as consumers continue to cite the burden of high prices."
"Many consumers, especially middle-
and lower-income households, face widespread affordability issues that force
them to be more cautious and value-based shoppers," said Kathy Bostjancic,
chief economist at Nationwide.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more
than two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.3% after a downwardly revised 0.5%
gain in August, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast
spending would advance 0.3% after a previously reported 0.6% rise in August.
The report was delayed by the 43-day U.S. government shutdown.
The increase in spending reflected higher
prices, particularly for gasoline and other energy goods. Outlays on motor
vehicles, recreational goods and vehicles as well as other long-lasting
manufactured products fell. Spending on clothing and footwear declined. Overall
outlays on goods were unchanged.
Spending on services increased 0.4%, led
by housing and utilities. Consumers also boosted spending on healthcare,
financial services and insurance as well as hotel and motel rooms, and
transportation services like airline tickets.
HIGH-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS DRIVING SPENDING
Economists have attributed the increased
spending on services to high-income households whose wealth was boosted by a
stock market rally. Labor market stagnation has hurt middle- and lower-income
consumers, who are also being squeezed by tariffs, economists said, creating
what they called a K-shaped economy.
Wages increased 0.4% in September, helping
to lift personal income by 0.4%. The saving rate was unchanged at 4.7%.
The Bank of America Institute said on
Friday an analysis of internal data showed the gap between after-tax wage and
salary growth of higher-income households and that of lower-income households
remained large at 2.6 percentage points in November.
Economists at Goldman Sachs said in a note
this week they expected weak income growth because of tepid job growth and cuts
to government assistance programs like Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition
Assistance Program, formerly known as the Food Stamp program, to weigh on
spending by low-income households in 2026.
"Unless one lives in the upper spur
of the K-shaped economy it is easy to get the idea that, at best, down-market
households are treading water at this time," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief
economist at RSM US.
When adjusted for inflation, spending was
unchanged after rising 0.2% in August, a weak handover to the fourth quarter.
More
US consumer
spending slows in September as high prices curb demand | Reuters
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Understanding why America’s biggest solar thermal project is
coming to an end
December 3, 2025
One of the most ambitious solar projects
in history is quietly heading for shutdown after just a decade of operation.
The Ivanpah Solar Power Facility in California’s Mojave Desert was once hailed
as a symbol of America’s clean energy future. A $2.2 billion, utility-scale
solar thermal plant that promised to power 140,000 homes and prove that big,
futuristic renewable projects could work.
Instead, Ivanpah has become a cautionary
example about timing, technology bets, politics, and the unforgiving realities
of engineering at scale. Its closure is not the end of solar power, but it does
show how quickly an industry can change, and how even bold ideas can be
overtaken by economics.
A child of the post-crisis green stimulus
To understand Ivanpah, you have to go
back to the late 2000s. The US was reeling from the 2008 financial crisis.
Unemployment was high, the housing bubble had burst, and the Obama
administration was under pressure to revive the economy while tackling climate
change.
The 2009 American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act poured billions into clean energy as part of a historic
stimulus. The idea was simple. Create jobs, cut emissions, and spur a new
generation of green infrastructure.
Ivanpah emerged directly from this wave
of optimism. BrightSource Energy, led by CEO John Willard, was a pioneer in
concentrated solar thermal technology. NRG Energy, headed by CEO David Crane,
saw Ivanpah as a bold bet that could reposition the company as a leader in
renewables. Google invested $168 million.
Together, they pitched a 392-megawatt
solar thermal facility that would generate around 1 million megawatt-hours of
electricity a year. Backed by a $1.6 billion federal loan guarantee, Ivanpah
was framed as both an engineering marvel and a political statement. Proof that America could build big,
clean, high-tech energy projects. Construction began in 2010, and thousands of
workers poured into the Mojave Desert to bring it to life.
---- A
changing market undercut the business case
Ivanpah’s core problem wasn’t just
technical. It was economic timing. While the plant was being built between 2010
and 2014, the entire solar industry went through a transformation. The cost
of photovoltaic (PV)
solar panels fell by nearly 80%, driven largely by massive manufacturing
capacity in China. Suddenly, simple PV farms, both rooftop and utility-scale,
became cheaper, faster, and easier to deploy than complex CSP systems.
At the same time, the US shale boom sent
natural gas prices plunging. Gas-fired power plants became some of the cheapest
sources of electricity to build and operate. By the time Ivanpah went online in
2014 with great fanfare, it was entering a completely different market from the
one in which it had been conceived. It was a slow, capital-intensive project
built for a world where renewables were expensive and needed heavy support.
Instead, it arrived in a world where PV and gas were already undercutting it on
cost.
To make matters worse, Ivanpah struggled
to hit its performance targets. In its first year, it generated only about
two-thirds of its promised output. That shortfall frustrated its utility
customers and handed critics an easy talking point. Why support a
billion-dollar solar plant that couldn’t deliver what it promised?
For David Crane and NRG, the project
became a high-risk bet that cooled investor enthusiasm. The vision was bold,
but the timing was brutal.
More
Understanding why America’s biggest solar thermal project is coming to an
end
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the
safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
Friedrich August von Hayek
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