Baltic
Dry Index. 1877 -12
Brent Crude 61.23
Spot Gold 4295 Spot Silver 70.53
US 2 Year Yield 3.45 unch.
US Federal Debt. 38.477 trillion US GDP 31.676 trillion.
"In politics stupidity is not a handicap."
Napoleon Bonapart, French Dictator.
It is the last trading day of 2025 and what a year it’s been. A stellar year for gold, silver and copper. A year to forget for most paper fiat currencies led by US dollar de-basement.
In other commodities, the usual up and down year driven by crop growing conditions and supply and demand economics.
In the G-7 economies, largely a year to forget, but 2026 looks likely to be even worse, if President Trump get to pack the US central bank with ”one percent or lower” interest rate cutters.
Back about 1800, Napoleon seems to have summed up 2025 and 2026.
Asia-Pacific markets fall in year-end trade;
investors parse China manufacturing data
Published Tue, Dec 30 2025 7:03 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets fell on the
holiday-shortened and final trading day of the year.
Markets in Hong Kong and Australia will
close early for the holidays, while Japan and South Korea are shut for the day.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.17%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined
0.42%, while the mainland CSI 300 was flat. China’s
economy ended the year on a slightly less gloomy note, as factory activity
expanded in December for the first time since March, beating expectations,
according to official data released Wednesday.
The official manufacturing purchasing
managers index rose to 50.1 in December, above the 49.2 forecast by economists
polled by Reuters, and higher than 49.2 in November. A reading above 50
indicates expansion.
The MSCI All Country World Index,
which measures the performance of over 2,500 large and mid-cap equities from
developed and emerging markets, has climbed over 21% since the start of the
year, hitting a record high of 1,024.29 on Dec. 26, data from LSEG showed.
U.S. equity futures were flat in early
Asian hours.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 fell modestly,
notching a third consecutive losing session. The broad market index lost
0.14% and closed at 6,896.24, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped
0.24% and settled at 23,419.08. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed
0.20%, and ended at 48,367.06.
The three major averages have slumped to
start the week, dragged down by losses in tech. Nvidia posted back-to-back
losing sessions, as did fellow AI play Palantir Technologies.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Hang Seng Index, Nifty 50, CSI 300
Dollar dismal, yen muted in 2025 but euro and
sterling shine
31 December 2025
SINGAPORE, Dec 31 (Reuters) - The U.S.
dollar held steady on Wednesday but was headed for its biggest annual drop
since 2017 as interest rate cuts, fiscal worries and erratic trade policies
under U.S. President Donald Trump cast a shadow on currency markets in 2025.
Many of those worries are likely to remain
in 2026, suggesting the dollar's dire performance could extend and underpin the
behaviour of some of its rivals, including the euro and sterling, that have
made significant gains this year.
Adding to the dollar's woes, concerns
about the Federal Reserve's independence under the Trump administration remain
in focus. Trump said he plans to announce his pick for the next Fed chair
sometime in January, replacing Jerome Powell whose term ends in May and who has
faced constant bashing from the president.
That backdrop has kept the
"sell-dollar" trade firmly in place with positioning remaining
net-short since April, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
Japanese markets are closed for the rest
of the week, and with most markets closed on Thursday for the New Year's Day
holiday, volumes are likely to be razor-thin.
The euro was steady at $1.1747 and the
pound last bought $1.3463 on the last trading day of the year. Both are poised
for their biggest yearly gains in eight years.
The dollar index, which measures the U.S.
currency versus six other major units, was at 98.228, holding onto its
overnight gains. The index has declined 9.5% in 2025 while the euro gained
13.5% and the pound surged 7.6%.
Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific
rates strategist at TD Securities, said the bearish dollar thesis for 2026
remains a well-subscribed view with "short dollars vs EUR and the AUD
expected to perform".
The greenback got a bit of a boost in the
previous session after minutes of the Fed's December meeting showed deep
divisions among policymakers as they cut rates earlier this month.
Traders are pricing in two cuts for 2026,
although the central bank itself has projected just one more next year.
Goldman Sachs strategists said the dollar
probably will weaken next year against the backdrop of solid global growth, and
rate cuts from the Fed with other central banks standing pat.
"But it is probably a much shallower
move ... greater concern around a labour market recession, deeper cuts or a
sharp derating in U.S. tech exceptionalism could see a larger move lower,"
they said in a note.
The dollar's weakness in 2025 has helped
push many of the major currencies as well as emerging markets to strong gains
for the year.
China's yuan broke through the key
psychological level of seven to the dollar on Tuesday for the first time in
2-1/2 years, defying weaker central bank guidance. The currency is on course
for a 4% increase in the year, its sharpest gain since 2020.
FRAGILE YEN THE OUTLIER
The Japanese yen is one of the few
currencies that failed to take advantage of the soft dollar in 2025, broadly
flat for the year even as the Bank of Japan raised rates twice during the
period, once in January and another earlier this month.
More
Dollar
dismal, yen muted in 2025 but euro and sterling shine
Gold set for best year in nearly half a century,
silver heads for largest annual gain
By Ishaan Arora December 31, 2025 5:06 AM GMT
Dec 31 (Reuters) - Gold was steady on
Wednesday but remained on track for its strongest annual gain in over four
decades, while other precious metals fell sharply as investors booked profits
after a strong, record-setting rally.
Spot gold was steady at $4,345.75 per
ounce as of 0404 GMT after hitting a record high of $4,549.71 on Friday.
U.S. gold futures for February delivery
lost 0.5% to $4,365.0/oz.
Bullion has climbed 66% in 2025, marking
its largest annual gain since 1979 when prices were driven higher by
geopolitical factors, including the Iranian revolution.
Gold's rally has been driven by interest
rate cuts and bets of further easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, geopolitical
conflicts, robust demand from central banks and rising holdings in
exchange-traded funds.
However, analysts said that recent
declines in precious metals were linked to technical factors alongside thin
trading.
"CME announced an increase in margins
on metals futures and that was a very painful adjustment for (precious metals
on Monday), it seems we have very thin markets here with the holidays,"
Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive, said.
The U.S. dollar (.DXY), opens
new tab rose to a more than one-week high, making greenback-priced
bullion more expensive for other currency holders.
Minutes from the Fed's December meeting showed
policymakers agreed to cut interest rates only after a deeply nuanced debate,
though traders expect two more reductions next year.
Low interest rate environments typically
support non-yielding assets such as gold.
"Maybe towards the end of the first
(quarter of 2026), we could see (gold) test $5,000. Certainly, it seems like
the sort of catalysts animating gold, especially over the course of the past
year, have become self-sustaining," Spivak said.
Spot silver fell 4.5% to $73.06 per ounce
on Wednesday after hitting an all-time high of $83.62 on Monday.
Silver has gained over 150% year-to-date,
far outpacing gold, and is set for its best year ever.
The metal broke multiple milestones in
2025, supported by its designation as a critical U.S. mineral, supply
constraints, low inventories and rising industrial and investment demand.
Spot platinum shed 6.1% to $2,065.80 per
ounce after rising to a lifetime high of $2,478.50 on Monday. It is up over
120% for the year, its strongest gain ever.
Palladium fell 7.1% to $1,496.75 per
ounce, set to close the year up 65%, its best performance in 15 years.
Gold
set for best year in nearly half a century, silver heads for largest annual
gain | Reuters
In other commodities news.
Soaring prices spark Australia gold rush for new
generation of fortune hunters
December 30, 2025 10:40 AM GMT
MELBOURNE, Dec 30 (Reuters) - In the
hinterlands of Australia's historic goldfields, Vicki Plumridge jumps for joy
when she digs a small golden nugget out of the earth.
The retired retail worker was learning how
to use her new metal detector when it started bleeping by the moss-covered
ruins of a building. After Plumridge dug the nugget out of the shallow dirt
with a plastic trowel, a guide estimated it was around 0.2 of a gram of gold,
worth about A$40 ($26.58).
“But to me, it’s worth a million dollars,”
said the 63-year-old, who had bought the detector only a few days before. “My
heart is singing.”
Plumridge's story is becoming more common,
as hobbyists flock to Australia's 9,600 sq km "golden triangle" in
the heart of Victoria state, known as one of the world's most prospective
regions for gold nuggets.
Prospectors have been spurred on by record
gold prices, social media, the success of TV show Aussie Gold Hunters, and a
love for the outdoors, according to Reuters interviews with a dozen gold
hunters.
Plumridge's detector, Minelab's Gold
Monster 2000, which she bought for A$2,999, sold out across the country within
weeks of its October 20 launch, according to Leanne Kamp, joint owner of Lucky
Strike Gold, a prospecting shop in Geelong.
"It’s a great price point and we have
seen a big jump in sales this year, partly because the gold price has got
everyone’s interest," said Kamp, who has led prospecting tours since 2007.
"We get a lot of internationals. Next
week we have some Germans coming. Germans love the gold. The Swiss seem to love
the gold too. And we have some coming over from the U.S.,” she said.
The chance of finding nuggets on historic
sites improves with each iteration of detectors, which is why there is a rush
for new models as soon as they are released, she added.
WORLD'S BIGGEST NUGGETS
Hobbyists have flocked to 19th-century
gold rush towns like Ballarat, which laid the foundation for Melbourne's early
wealth and helped make Australia one of the world's top three gold producers.
The region has yielded the world's biggest
nugget, the Welcome Stranger at 72 kg, found in the 1860s, as well as the Hand
of Faith, the largest nugget found with a metal detector at 27.2 kg in 1980. As
recently as February 2023, an amateur prospector unearthed a 4.6 kg nugget in
the region with a detector, according to the state government.
The lure of large nuggets is one of the
draws for Damian Duke, 39, who works in construction. Duke used to go
prospecting with his father who died three years ago. Now he takes his own son,
Ethan.
The 11-year-old inherited his
grandfather’s detector, and Duke has recently upgraded his machine, he told
Reuters.
“Where prices are now, you do have the
chance of striking a life-changing piece of gold," he said.
Gold has chalked up successive records
this year, surging above $4,500 a troy ounce on Friday. Goldman Sachs expects
prices will reach $4,900 by the end
of 2026, with further gains likely if private investors continue diversifying
their portfolios amid geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty.
More
Soaring prices
spark Australia gold rush for new generation of fortune hunters | Reuters
India's domination of global rice trade stokes
looming water crisis
December 30, 2025 2:35 AM GMT
NEW DELHI, Dec 30 (Reuters) - When India
overtook China as the world's largest producer of rice this year, the country's
politicians and agriculture lobby marked the moment by praising resilient
farmers and innovative government policy.
India has nearly doubled the amount of
rice it exported over the past decade, with shipments crossing 20 million
metric tons in the latest fiscal year.
But many rice farmers in the country's
agricultural heartlands are in a less celebratory mood.
Interviews with growers, government
officials and farm scientists, as well as a review of groundwater data, reveal
widespread concern that thirsty rice crops are unsustainably draining India's
already-low aquifers, forcing farmers to borrow heavily to
drill ever-deeper
borewells.
In the rice-basket states of Haryana and
Punjab, groundwater was reachable at around 30 feet a decade ago, according to
50 farmers and eight water and agriculture officials.
But drainage has accelerated in the past
five years and borewells must now go between 80 and 200 feet, according to the
farmers, whose accounts were corroborated with government data and research by
Punjab Agricultural University.
"Every year, the borewell has to go
deeper," said Balkar Singh, a 50-year-old farmer in Haryana. "It's
getting too expensive."
At the same time, government subsidies
that incentivize rice cultivation discourage farmers from switching to less
water-intensive crops, said Uday Chandra, a South Asia politics expert at
Georgetown University in Qatar.
The subsidies - some of them a legacy from
past decades when India struggled to feed its growing population - include a
state-guaranteed minimum price for rice that has climbed by around 70% over the
past decade, as well as heavy power subsidies that encourage extracting water
for farm use.
The net effect, said Avinash Kishore at
the International Food Policy Research Institute think-tank in Washington, is
that one of the world's most water-stressed countries is paying farmers to
consume vast amounts of precious groundwater.
The Indian Ministries of Agriculture and
Farmers' Welfare and of Water Resources did not respond when presented with
Reuters' findings.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi previously
attempted to reform agricultural laws, including measures that would
incentivize more private-sector crop purchases.
But that raised fears that the government
might reduce the quantity of grain it purchases at guaranteed prices,
prompting protests by
millions of farmers that
paralysed the nation five years ago and forced Modi into a rare retreat.
India accounts for 40% of the world's rice
exports, so any changes in production will have global implications, Kishore
said.
In addition, India grows far more rice
than it needs to feed its domestic population, which overtook China's
in 2023 to
become the world's largest, at more than 1.4 billion people.
"The sheer volume of rice India
produces and exports gives it a pivotal role in global trade," Kishore
said. "But it also raises a question: should the country be growing and
selling so much rice?"
More
India's domination
of global rice trade stokes looming water crisis | Reuters
Argentine farmers bag last fields of a dream wheat
season
December 29, 2025 7:15 PM GMT
- Argentina's
wheat harvest expected to exceed previous record by up to 25%
- Ideal
weather conditions led to unprecedented wheat yields, Rosario Grain
Exchange reports
- Soybeans
and corn also show good prospects, pending January rains
- Only 13% of wheat area remains unharvested nationwide
BENITO JUAREZ, Argentina, Dec 29 (Reuters)
- Diego Ugrotte, like many other Argentine farmers, is wrapping up what could
be described as a near-perfect wheat season.
The 51-year-old farmer from the southern
part of the Buenos Aires province, Ugrotte examines his wheat plants near the
steady roar of a combine harvester combing through his fields. The verdict is
hard to argue with: this one turned out exceptionally well.
"We knew it was going to be a good
harvest, but not to the extreme of the figures we ended up with," said the
farmer from the town of Benito Juarez, about 400 kilometers south of the
Argentine capital.
With the country's two main grain
exchanges estimating the 2025/26 wheat harvest at a record between 27.1 and
27.7 million tons, the farmer's words resonate not only in his region, the
wheat heartland of the country, but throughout Argentina.
With only a few hectares left to harvest,
production is expected to exceed the country's record wheat harvest of 22.2
million tons for the 2021/22 season by up to 25%, according to official data.
A hot, dry day in the austral summer is
helping wrap up the harvest on Ugrotte’s farm, where he has been working since
he was 17.
IDEAL SEASON
Argentina, one of the world's top grains
suppliers, relies on the agricultural sector to generate foreign currency.
Dry conditions have smoothed the path for
combines on rural roads and across fields nationwide, after Argentina
enjoyed almost ideal
weather at
every stage of wheat development, resulting in what the Rosario Grain Exchange
described as "unprecedented" yields for the crop.
"There were low temperatures in the
winter when the crop was in its vegetative stage, which is what it needs. Then
it had a period of very regular rainfall that resulted in good tillering, good
ear development, and finally, excellent grain filling," said Ugrotte.
According to the producer, in Benito
Juarez only 20% to 30% of the wheat area remains unharvested, marking the end
of an "excellent" season. Nationally, just 13% of the planted area
remains unharvested, according to the latest government data.
And while producers are bagging their last
batches of wheat, in adjacent fields, Argentine soybeans and corn are nearing
maturity, also with good prospects according to Ugrotte.
"For the main crops, the weather has
also been cooperating" he said. "The main crops harvest still depend
on what happens with January rains, but the outlook looks good."
Argentine farmers
bag last fields of a dream wheat season | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
But
President Trump intends to pack the Fed with “one percent or lower” interest
rate cutters in 2026!
Interest
rates could be on hold ‘for some time,’ Fed minutes show
A
pause would give Federal Reserve officials time to assess the effects of the
three rate cuts made this year
Last
Updated: Dec. 30, 2025 at 3:19 p.m. ET First Published: Dec. 30,
2025 at 2:13 p.m. ET
Some
Federal Reserve officials want to keep interest rates unchanged “for some time”
after making three rate cuts this year, minutes from the latest Fed meeting
showed.
These
officials said that pausing would allow policymakers to gauge the impact of the
rate cuts on the economy and also to see if inflation will move lower.
Officials
want time “to acquire more confidence about inflation,” officials said.
“The
Fed is not in a rush to cut interest rates again in early 2026. Fed leaders
think they have done a lot not to help the labor market and the overall economy
and they want to wait and see what happens,” said Heather Long, chief economist
at Navy Federal Credit Union, in an email.
The
Fed cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point in December, the third
straight meeting with such a move. The vote was 9-3 with three dissents — two
who supported no change in rates and one who pushed for a larger cut.
“A
few of those who supported lowering the policy rate at this meeting indicated
the decision was finely balanced or that they could have supported keeping the
target range unchanged,” according to the minutes of the Dec. 9-10 meeting,
which were released on Tuesday.
Concern
about the health of the labor market was a large factor in the decision to cut
rates. The unemployment rate has risen slowly but steadily this year, hitting
4.6% in November after being at 4% at the beginning of 2025.
Those
who argued against the cut expressed concern that progress on bringing
inflation down had stalled this year. This raised worries that the public could
begin to expect higher prices. Fed research shows that once that happens,
inflation can go up quickly.
The
Fed will next vote on interest rates at its meeting Jan. 27-28. At the moment,
market participants expect no change. The Fed’s own forecast expects one cut
next year, while the market has priced in just under one rate cut by April and
another one later in 2026.
The
economic outlook is making life difficult for the Fed. Inflation is expected to
remain elevated in the near term, while any improvement in the labor market
appears to be months away.
At
their December meeting, Fed officials agreed it would be prudent to start to
slowly expand the central bank’s balance sheet through purchases of Treasury
bills.
The
minutes show that officials saw signs that liquidity was drying up in money
markets, especially as the spreads of the effective federal funds rate and
other key money-market rates relative to the interest rate on reserve balances
had increased since September. Some Fed officials said that the recent increase
in spreads was happening faster than in 2019, when money-market rates spiked
and the Fed had to intervene.
Interest
rates could be on hold ‘for some time,’ Fed minutes show - MarketWatch
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
At 15 – 20 grams of silver paste per
solar panel, get silver.
Miliband plots
£13bn solar panel blitz to create ‘zero-bill homes’
Energy
Secretary will also offer grants for heat pumps as part of £13bn green energy
fund
29 December 2025 11:14pm GMT
Ed Miliband is planning to offer grants
for solar panels and heat pumps worth
up to £13bn in an attempt to create “zero bill” homes.
The Energy Secretary hopes to give
millions of homeowners financial support to adopt green energy over the next four years.
Mr Miliband will reportedly set out
plans next month for his “warm homes fund” to spend billions on solar energy,
battery storage and heat pumps.
The Department for Energy Security
and Net Zero is said to believe grants could
see the emergence of “zero bill” homes where householders pay nothing for
power.
Its “warm homes plan”, to be published
in January, is likely to also include an end to restrictions on “plug-in solar
panels” which cost between £180 and £300 and can be installed on balconies,
patios and flat roofs, according to The Times.
Nigel Banks, technical director at
Octopus Energy, told The Times that one million homes with strong insulation
could reduce their bills to zero if they installed solar panels, batteries and
a heat pump.
“With flexible energy tariffs, the
opportunity is now there for homeowners to effectively pay no energy bills at
all,” he said.
The energy supplier estimated that some
homeowners could cut their bills by up to £90 a month by switching to green
energy.
The Government has previously focused
subsidies on improvements to energy efficiency through insulation and double
glazing initiatives but ministers are now said to be considering a shift
towards solar power.
The warm homes plan is designed to lower
bills for poorer households by hundreds of pounds per year.
Mr Miliband once pledged that household
energy bills would come down by £300 a year by 2030 but later dropped the claim
in a flagship policy document.
Figures published in September showed
that British industry was paying the highest electricity prices in the
developed world. The price paid in the UK for power was 63 per cent higher than
in France and 27 per cent higher than in Germany.
Britain was the second-most expensive
country in the world for household electricity, after Slovakia, with households
paying twice as much as those in the US.
The Department for Energy Security and
Net Zero said: “We are investing an additional £1.5bn into our warm homes plan,
taking it to nearly £15bn – the biggest ever public investment to upgrade homes
and tackle fuel poverty ever.
“We are doubling down on support for
home upgrades and will set out our plans to help households, and support
thousands more clean energy jobs soon.”
Ed Miliband plots £13bn solar panel blitz to create ‘zero bill’ homes
How Much Silver is in a Solar Panel? Key Insights
The Hidden Value of Silver in Solar Technology
Why Silver Matters in Solar Panels
As the world shifts towards renewable energy sources, solar panels
have emerged as a cornerstone of sustainable technology. These sleek,
glass-covered structures not only harness sunlight to generate electricity but
also embody a complex interplay of materials that contribute to their
efficiency and effectiveness. Among these materials, silver plays a crucial yet
often overlooked role.
Silver is known for its exceptional conductivity, making it an
ideal choice for the electrical components of solar panels. But how much silver
is actually used in these energy-generating devices? This question is more than
just a technical curiosity; it touches on broader themes of resource
management, environmental impact, and the economics of renewable energy. As we
strive for a greener future, understanding the materials that power our
technologies becomes essential.
In this article, we will explore the specific amount of silver
found in various types of solar panels, including monocrystalline,
polycrystalline, and thin-film technologies. We will also delve into the
reasons behind the use of silver, its impact on the overall performance of
solar panels, and the implications for sustainability. Additionally, we’ll
touch on the recycling potential of silver in solar panels, highlighting how
this precious metal can be reclaimed and reused, thus minimizing waste and maximizing
resource efficiency.
By the end of this article, you will have a clearer picture of the
role silver plays in solar technology, its significance in the renewable energy
landscape, and why it matters for both consumers and manufacturers alike.
Whether you’re a solar enthusiast, an environmental advocate, or simply curious
about how solar panels work, this exploration into the silver lining of solar
technology will provide valuable insights into the materials that help power
our planet sustainably.
More
How Much Silver is
in a Solar Panel? Facts and Insights
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
"I wasn't worth two cents two years ago, and now I owe $2
million dollars.”
Uncle Scam Quoted by Mark Twain.
