Baltic Dry Index. 514 -20 Brent Crude 29.86
Spot Gold 1714
Coronavirus Cases 08/5/20
World 3,917,944
Deaths 270,740
Nothing in life is so
exhilarating as to be shot at without result.”
Winston Churchill.
Our new normal in 2020
is devastating economic news causes stock market surges on optimism that things
can only get better.
Well yes, but that
was also true after the British “victory” at Dunkirk in May-June 1940, though
it took until near the end of 1942 and the battles of El Alamein and Stalingrad
to come true. And even then, it took almost 3 more years to get to Victory in Europe
Day.
I think misplaced
optimism in current stock rallies will only end badly. Stocks are still a sell not a buy. Today we’ll likely get more bad news on the
US unemployment front, and while it’s widely anticipated, that doesn’t make it
into good news.
Below, reasons to
be cautious rather than reckless.
‘It’s devastating’ — The jobs number will be bad, but the reality is actually much worse, warns the Fed’s Neel Kashkari
Published: May 7, 2020 at 9:54
a.m. ET
That’s the cautious view Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank
President Neel Kashkari shared on NBC’s Today Show in an interview ahead of Friday’s monthly employment report,
which he says won’t give the clearest picture of job losses amid the
coronavirus pandemic.“That bad report tomorrow is actually going to understate how bad the damage has been,” Kashkari explained, adding that the reported unemployment rate could be as high as 17% — a brutal number, no doubt — but he says the true number may be as high as 24%. “It’s devastating.”
Still, he said that he remains optimistic that the U.S. can avoid a Great Depression scenario. “The Federal Reserve is acting aggressively, we will continue to act aggressively,” he said. The central bank’s balance sheet has ballooned to a record $6.7 trillion as it rolls out an unprecedented amount of stimulus to help limit the harm of business closures and seized up economic activity on financial markets.
Even then, however, Kashkari said the economic rebound will be “gradual” until a vaccine or a therapy allows the country to get fully back to work. And that could take a while.
“When are we all going to feel safe to go sit in a crowded movie theater with a couple hundred other strangers around us?” he asked. “Unfortunately, the recovery looks like it is going to be slow.”
Last month, Kashkari also grabbed headlines with his gloomy outlook, saying that America should get ready for 18 months of shutdowns in a “long, hard” road ahead.
“It’s hard for me to see a V-shaped recovery under that scenario,” he said.
Another 3.17 Million Filed for U.S. Jobless Benefits Last Week
By Reade Pickert
May 7, 2020, 1:31 PM GMT+1 Updated on May 7, 2020, 1:34
PM GMT+1
Millions more Americans filed for unemployment benefits
last week, bringing the total to about 33.5 million since the coronavirus began
closing restaurants, factories and offices from coast to coast in mid-March.Initial jobless claims totaled 3.17 million in the week ended May 2 following 3.85 million in the prior week, according to a Labor Department report released Thursday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 3 million.
Continuing claims, or the total number of Americans receiving
unemployment benefits, rose to a fresh record of 22.6 million in the week ended
April 25. That, in turn, sent the insured unemployment rate, or the number
receiving benefits as a share of the labor force based on eligibility, to
15.5%.
Those data are reported with a one-week lag.
California, Texas and Georgia reported the highest levels of unadjusted
initial claims last week. Most states posted declines from the prior week.
Bank of England warns of deepest recession on record
7 May 2020
It said the economy was on course to shrink 14% this year, based on the lockdown being relaxed in June.
Scenarios drawn up by the Bank to illustrate the economic impact said Covid-19 was "dramatically reducing jobs and incomes in the UK".
Policymakers voted unanimously to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.1%.
However, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that sets interest rates was split on whether to inject more stimulus into the economy.
Two of its nine members voted to increase the latest round of quantitative easing by £100bn to
£300bn.
The Bank's analysis was based on social distancing measures being gradually phased out between June and September.
The Bank's scenario showed the UK economy plunging into its first recession in more than a decade. The economy shrinks by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2020, followed by an unprecedented 25% decline in the three months to June.
This would push the UK into a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of economic decline.
For the year as a whole, the economy is expected to contract by 14%. This would be the biggest annual decline on record, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data dating back to 1949.
It would also be the sharpest annual contraction since 1706, according to reconstructed Bank of England data stretching back to the 18th Century.
More
German industrial production sees historic plunge
Published: May 7, 2020 at 2:19 a.m. ET By Maria Martinez
German industrial production collapsed on month in March because of the
coronavirus pandemic, having the largest decline since the beginning of the
series in January 1991, federal statistics office Destatis said Thursday.
Total industrial output--comprised of output in manufacturing, energy
and construction--fell 9.2% in March from February, in calendar-adjusted terms.
Economists had forecast an 8.8% decline in March, according to a poll by The
Wall Street Journal.
Compared with March 2019, total industrial output fell 11.6% in
calendar-adjusted terms.
The office also said production contracted 1.8% in February
year-on-year, more than in the preliminary figure of 1.2%. The 0.3% increase
month-on-month of the preliminary estimate in February was confirmed.
Production in industry excluding energy and construction was down 11.6%
in March and energy production fell 6.4%, while construction increased 1.8%.
The data follows the largest drop on record in manufacturing orders data
Wednesday, which showed a 15.6% decline in orders on an adjusted basis.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/german-industrial-production-sees-historic-plunge-2020-05-07?mod=home-page
French industrial production plunges in March
Published: May 7, 2020 at 2:46 a.m. ET
French industrial production fell sharply on month in March due to the
coronavirus crisis, France's statistics agency Insee said Thursday.
Total industrial output--comprised of output in manufacturing, energy
and construction--fell 16.2% in March from February in calendar-adjusted terms.
Economists had forecast a 14.5% decline in March, according to a poll by The
Wall Street Journal.
Insee revised February's reading to 0.8% from 0.9% previously.
Compared with March 2019, total industrial output fell 7.3% in calendar-adjusted
terms.
Manufacturing output--excluding energy and construction--was down 18.2%
in March, energy production fell 4.1% and construction suffered a deep decline
of 40.1%.
The French industrial sector data comes after German industrial
production figures showed Thursday the largest decline since the beginning of
the series in January 1991, falling 9.2% in March from February.
“War never pays its dividends in cash on
the money it costs.”
Winston Churchill.
Covid-19 Corner
Though
hopefully, we are passing/have passed the peak of new cases, at least of the
first SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this section will continue until it becomes
unneeded.
Black and Pakistani people more likely to die from COVID-19 - UK data
May 7, 2020 /
10:04 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - Black people and those of
Bangladeshi and Pakistani ethnicity have a significantly higher chance of dying
from COVID-19 than white people, even when adjusting for deprivation, the
British statistics office said on Thursday.
Using models that adjusted for a range of socio-economic factors, the
statistics office said it was clear that there were significant differences in
the risk of COVID-19 among different ethnic groups.
“The risk of death involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) among some
ethnic groups is significantly higher than that of those of white ethnicity,”
the Office for National Statistics said.
“People of Bangladeshi and Pakistani, Indian, and Mixed ethnicities also
had statistically significant raised risk of death involving COVID-19 compared
with those of white ethnicity.”
Scientists studying the novel coronavirus caution that there were vast
holes in their knowledge and cite striking differences in the death rates based
on age, sex and ethnicity.
Genetics, they say, might hold many clues that could help eventually
reveal a path to medicines or a vaccine that could treat the disease.
Without adjusting for a variety of factors including deprivation,
education and health, the ONS found that black males were 4.2 times more likely
to die from a COVID-19-related death and black females were 4.3 times more
likely than white ethnicity males and females.
The adjusted model showed that black males and females were 1.9 times
more likely to die from COVID-19 than the white ethnic group.
More
Explainer: South Korean findings suggest 'reinfected' coronavirus cases are false positives
May 7, 2020 /
6:03 AM
SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korean health authorities raised new concerns
about the novel coronavirus after reporting last month that dozens of patients
who had recovered from the illness later tested positive again.
The findings suggested that some people who survived COVID-19 could
become reinfected with the virus that causes it, potentially complicating
efforts to lift quarantine restrictions and to produce a vaccine.
But after weeks of research, they now say that such test results appear
to be “false positives” caused by lingering - but likely not infectious - bits
of the virus.
South Korea had reported more than 350 such cases as of Wednesday,
according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC).
As more and more South Koreans were released from treatment for
COVID-19, authorities discovered a disturbing trend. Some ostensibly cured
patients were later testing positive again.
While officials examined several possible explanations, including reinfection
of patients, or reactivation of the virus, an expert panel convened by the
government concluded last week that the most likely explanation was that the
tests are returning “false positives”.
South Korea uses reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction
(RT-PCR) tests, which detect the coronavirus’s genetic material.
The RT-PCR process can quickly return results and is considered the most
accurate way to find out if a patient is infected with the coronavirus.
But in some cases, the tests may detect old particles of the virus,
which may no longer pose a significant threat to the patient or others, said
Seol Dai-wu, an expert in vaccine development at Seoul’s Chung-Ang University.
“The RT-PCR machine itself cannot distinguish an infectious viral
particle versus a non-infectious virus particle, as the test simply detects any
viral component,” Seol said.
This so-called false positive result is likely behind the cases of
recovered patients testing positive again, the KCDC says.
Authorities are still gathering evidence to support their theory that
the particles are from “dead” virus cells, KCDC director Jeong Eun-kyeong said
on Wednesday.
More
Coronavirus Hijacks the Body From Head to Toe, Perplexing Doctors
More than a respiratory infection, Covid-19 wreaks havoc on many organs; inflammation and abnormal blood clotting are likely culprits
May 7, 2020 11:10 am ET
----As the number of Covid-19 patients grows, doctors are learning its damage can extend well beyond the lungs, where infection can lead to pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome, the sometimes fatal condition Mr. Russell had. The disease can also affect the brain, kidneys, heart, vascular and digestive system. Some patients have sudden strokes, pulmonary embolisms or heart-attack symptoms. Others have kidney failure or inflammation of the gut.
Infection can affect the nervous
system, causing seizures, hallucinations or a loss of smell and taste. It may
affect pregnancies, though the science is nascent: The placenta of a
patient who miscarried during her second trimester tested positive for the
virus and showed signs of inflammation, according to a paper published April 30
in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
More
Covid-19's Scary Blood Clots Aren't That Surprising
There's more than a century of research
linking clogged blood vessels to infectious diseases.
05.07.2020 08:00
AM
As if it weren’t enough that the new coronavirus can steal away your ability
to breathe and make your immune system turn against you, now we know this
fearsome pathogen can also literally curdle your blood. News of the “bizarre,
unsettling” complication—one that’s been killing young and middle-aged patients
with Covid-19—made headlines last month. “ It
crept up on us,” one doctor told The Washington Post for a story
published on April 22. “We are scared,” said another.Other outlets quickly added to the terrifying coverage. Vox cited a hematologist who called the disturbing new outcome “unprecedented … This is not like a disease we’ve seen before.” AFP described the “mysterious” clotting phenomenon as the coronavirus’s “latest lethal surprise.” The New York Times wondered if it might explain another unexpected symptom seen in patients: swollen, red and purple “Covid toes.” There was coverage of a 41-year-old Broadway star, hospitalized with the virus, who’d had to have his leg amputated due to a clot. Yet for all the seeming strangeness of these cases, it’s stranger still that so many people would be acting so bewildered. In fact, researchers have long known about the link between infectious diseases and blood clotting. There’s even data to suggest a heightened risk of fatal heart attacks—a related complication—among those who get plain old influenza.
The study of
disease-induced clotting stretches back more than a century. Writing in 1903,
pathologists described the same phenomenon in typhoid
fever. Adam Cunningham, an immunologist at the University of Birmingham,
notes that many common bacteria, such as Helicobacter
pylori and Escherichia coli, have also been associated with
an increased risk of blood clots. If this fact has mostly been forgotten, it
may be on account of our success at treating such infections. “One of the
things that probably made a big difference was the introduction of the
antibiotic era, so many of the pathogens didn’t get that severe,” Cunningham
says.
More
Blood thinners may boost COVID-19 survival
May 7, 2020 /
1:20 PM
“It is not in our power to anticipate our destiny.”
Winston Churchill.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Supercapacitor promises storage, high power and fast charging
Date:
May 5, 2020
Source:
Penn State
Summary:
A new supercapacitor based on manganese oxide could combine the storage
capacity of batteries with the high power and fast charging of other
supercapacitors, according to researchers.
A new supercapacitor based on manganese oxide could combine the storage
capacity of batteries with the high power and fast charging of other
supercapacitors, according to researchers at Penn State and two universities in
China.
"Manganese oxide is definitely a promising material," said
Huanyu "Larry" Cheng, assistant professor of engineering science and
mechanics and faculty member in the Materials Research Institute, Penn State.
"By combining with cobalt manganese oxide, it forms a heterostructure in
which we are able to tune the interfacial properties."
The group started with simulations to see how manganese oxide's
properties change when coupled with other materials. When they coupled it to a
semiconductor, they found it made a conductive interface with a low resistance
to electron and ion transport. This will be important because otherwise the
material would be slow to charge.
"Exploring manganese oxide with cobalt manganese oxide as a
positive electrode and a form of graphene oxide as a negative electrode yields
an asymmetric supercapacitor with high energy density, remarkable power density
and excellent cycling stability," according to Cheng Zhang, who was a
visiting scholar in Cheng's group and is the lead author on a paper published
recently in Electrochimica Acta.
The group has compared their supercapacitor to others and theirs has
much higher energy density and power. They believe that by scaling up the
lateral dimensions and thickness, their material has the potential to be used
in electric vehicles. So far, they have not tried to scale it up. Instead,
their next step will be to tune the interface where the semiconducting and
conducting layers meet for even better performance. They want to add the
supercapacitor to already developed flexible, wearable electronics and sensors
as an energy supply for those devices or directly as self-powered sensors.
The National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Science
Research Fund of Guizhou Province, China supported this research.
Another weekend and
the 75th Victory in Europe celebrations too. Much more subdued than
originally intended due to the continuing coronavirus crisis. Still with
lockdowns easing in America, parts of Europe and Hong Kong, we will very soon
find out if new cases start to rise again. Assuming the best, our new normal
will be far rom the old normal of 2019. Have a great weekend everyone.
“Never…was so much owed by so many to so few.”
Winston Churchill.
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished April
DJIA: 24,346 +26 Down. NASDAQ: 8,890 +162 Up.
SP500: 2,912 +89 Down.
The NASDAQ has rebounded to
up. The S&P and the DJIA remain down.
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