Covid-19
cases 18/04/20 World 2,261,658 Deaths 154,341
Covid-19
cases 25/04/20 World 2,817,790 Deaths 197,087
Covid-19
cases 02/05/20 World 3,401,318 Deaths 239,614
They went to sea in a sieve, they did;
In a sieve they went to sea:
In spite of all their friends could say,
On a winter’s morn, on a stormy day,
In a sieve they went to sea.
And when the sieve turned round and round,
And every one cried, “You’ll all be drowned!”
They called aloud, “Our sieve ain’t big;
But we don’t care a button, we don’t care a fig:
In a sieve we’ll go to sea!”
The Fed and BOE, with apologies to Edward Lear.
Our
central banksters, ever more desperate to shore up the assets of the one
percent, are leading the global economy deeper and deeper into economic madness,
yet the world, like the Pied Piper’s children, seems all too willing to go
along. Stay long fully paid up physical gold and silver, held outside of the still
collapsing financial system.
Modern
Monetary Theory is a socialist fraud that sooner or later ends in monetary
disaster. In monetary disaster usually lies vast social disorder, poverty, and
the rise of “strong men” “leaders.”
Our
unelected, crooked central banksters are playing with fire, egged on by
desperate global politicians, and a US presidential race fast turning into race
between the parties and candidates as to who can offer the most “free money” to
the voters. Nothing but future disaster lies ahead, although for now I seem to
be a lone voice crying out in the wilderness.
Below,
a picture of our sad global economy that Nixon, Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen and
Powell made.
Stocks fall as Trump's China
tariff threat adds to fears over virus-hit economies
May 1, 2020 / 10:32 AM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street took a nosedive on
Friday on fears that the world’s two largest economies could resume a trade
war, dragging down a global stocks index on a day that many financial markets
were closed for a holiday.
The euro rose and the U.S. dollar fell against most of its
peers, while the pound succumbed to weak economic data. Crude oil prices traded
in and out of negative territory.
A threat by President Donald Trump to impose new tariffs on
China in retaliation for its handling of the novel coronavirus outbreak soured
investor sentiment.London, Tokyo and New York markets were all open on Friday,
although much of Europe and Asia were closed for International Workers’ Day.
Trump offered no evidence after claiming on Thursday he had
seen proof that the virus originated in a Chinese laboratory. The pandemic,
which has cost more than 60,000 lives in the United States alone, has sparked a
steep economic contraction and is threatening Trump’s chances of re-election in
November.
“A rise in tension between China and the U.S. certainly
could have a negative impact on the U.S. economy and business confidence, which
is already hurt from the shutdowns,” said Carin Pai, director of equity
management at Fiduciary Trust International in New York.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI fell
622.03 points, or 2.55%, to 23,723.69, the S&P 500 .SPX lost
81.72 points, or 2.81%, to 2,830.71, and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC
dropped 284.60 points, or 3.2%, to 8,604.95.
----The market looked ahead to next week’s projection for U.S. borrowing in the
second quarter to finance enormous stimulus efforts aimed at combating the
economic fallout of the coronavirus outbreak.
Tom Simons,
money market economist at Jefferies in New York, said the Treasury’s projection
for second-quarter borrowing is going to be “astronomical.”
“There’s a
lot of uncertainty how Treasury is going to handle the financing issues because
the total number they have to come up with is so big,” he said.
Will the stock market tumble
back to its coronavirus lows in March? About 92 years of S&P 500 history
says there’s a good chance
Published: May 1, 2020 at 9:15 p.m. ET
Will the
U.S. stock market retest bear-market lows put in on March 23?
That is
perhaps the most prevalent question on Wall Street. And while there’s no way of
knowing the answer for sure, if history is any guide, when the stock-market
slips into a bear market, typically defined by a decline of at least 20% from a
recent peak, it tends to return to return to that low more often than not,
according to data from Bespoke Investment Group.
---- The Dow is up about 28%
from its March 23 low at 18.591.93, the S&P 500 is up 27% from its low at
2,237.40 and Nasdaq is has returned 26% from its bear-market nadir at 6,850.67,
according to FactSet data.
MarketWatch has written about the likelihood of a so-called
retest of those levels, which may result in the indexes returning to or
exceeding March’s drop, with Mark Hulbert suggesting that small-capitalization
stocks are sending a bullish signal.
JPMorgan
Chase & Co., analysts warned last month that investors should get ready
for a “vicious spiral” that is twice as severe as the 2008 financial crisis,
while MarketWatch’s Hulbert wrote a separate piece
pointing to August as a possible last stand for the bears.
Bespoke’s
data, however, says that since 1928, reviewing the past 25 bear markets, there
has been a lower price put in by the S&P 60% of the time.
“In the
first bear market of the Great Depression, the S&P fell 44.57% over 58 days
and then rallied 20%+ to enter a new bull market,” the analysts at Bespoke
wrote in a Friday report. “Unfortunately, the S&P went on to make a lower
low 338 days later, and then kept going lower and lower for years,” the report
continued.
Making a
finer point, however, Bespoke notes that of the 11 bear markets from 1928
through 1940, 9 of them saw the S&P 500 make a lower low, but since 1940
most bear markets have tended not to see retest (see attached table):
---- Many investors believe
that the monetary and fiscal stimulus could be a sufficient cocktail to help
ward off a revisit to the depths of March, but economic reports that point at
stark deterioration in economic activity compared with a few months ago may be
enough to shake the nerve of even the most rock-solid bulls.
Indeed, the Institute for Supply Management said its
manufacturing index fell to 41.5% last month from 49.1% in March. This is the
lowest since April 2009 and the reading showed
the biggest monthly drop for new orders since 1951.
ECB says virus may hobble euro
area growth until 2022
May 1, 2020 / 9:27 AM
FRANKFURT
(Reuters) - The euro zone economy is likely to rebound in the second half of
this year but it may fail to grow back to last year’s level until as late as
2022 due to the coronavirus pandemic, the European Central Bank said on Friday.
The ECB kept
its monetary policy largely unchanged on Thursday, reaffirming a pledge to buy
1.1 trillion euros ($1.21 trillion) worth of assets this year, or more if
needed, while offering to pay banks if they borrow from it to lend to companies
and households struggling with the outbreak.
In a
bulletin published on Friday, the ECB said it expected the euro area’s Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) to shrink by as much as 15% percent this quarter before
“a protracted and incomplete recovery” in the remainder of the year.
“The annual
figure under the severe scenario reflects a quarterly real GDP growth reaching
a trough of around -15% in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a protracted
and incomplete recovery, entailing quarterly growth rates of around 6% and 3%,
respectively, in the third and fourth quarters,” the ECB said.
It said
uncertainty surrounding the containment of the virus meant that, under it most
pessimistic scenario, GDP could remain “well below” the level observed at the
end of 2019 for as long as two more years.
Heathrow Airport sees April
passenger numbers down 97%
May 1, 2020 / 7:18 AM
LONDON
(Reuters) - London’s Heathrow Airport, traditionally the busiest in Europe,
said passenger numbers were expected to be down by around 97% in April and they
were likely to remain weak until governments fighting the coronavirus outbreak
deem it safe to travel.
For the
first quarter, revenue fell 12.7% to 593 million pounds and adjusted EBITDA
fell by 22.4% to 315 million pounds.
Heathrow
said it had 3.2 billion pounds in liquidity,sufficient to maintain the business
at least over the next 12 months, even with no passengers.
New report says coronavirus
pandemic could last for two years – and may not subside until 70% of the
population has immunity
By Christopher Brito May 1, 2020 / 2:24 PM
As coronavirus
restrictions around the world are being lifted, a new report warns the pandemic that has already killed more than 230,000
people likely won't be contained for two years. The modeling study from the
Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of
Minnesota also says that about 70% of people need to be immune in order to
bring the virus to a halt.
For the study, experts looked at eight major influenza pandemics dating back to
the 1700s, as well as data about the new coronavirus, to help forecast how COVID-19 may
spread over the coming months and years. Out of the eight past flu pandemics,
scientists said seven had a second substantial peak about six months after the
first one. Additionally, some had "smaller waves of cases over the course
of 2 years" after the initial outbreak.
A key factor in their prediction for the current pandemic
revolves around herd immunity, which refers to the community-wide resistance to
the spread of a contagious disease that results when a high percentage of
people are immune to it, either through vaccination or prior exposure.
Following the markets on both sides of the Atlantic since 1968. A dinosaur, who evolved with the financial system as it was perverted from capitalism to banksterism after the great Nixonian error of abandoning the dollar's link to gold instead of simply revaluing gold. Our money is too important to be left to probity challenged central banksters and crooked politicians.
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