Happy Birthday
Great Britain. You are 313 years old today.
The Treaty of Union is the name usually now given to the
agreement which led to the creation of the new state of Great Britain,
stating that England (which
already included Wales)
and Scotland were
to be "United into One Kingdom by the Name of Great Britain",[1]
At the time it was more often referred to as the Articles of Union.
First
the good news. Yes, on what was another very bad day for US unemployment, there
was still some good news for our Fed fantasy stock market bubbles. The Dow and
SP 500 had a very good April.
After the best April for the Dow
and S&P 500 in 82 years, is ‘sell in May’ in the coronavirus era a smart
strategy?
April 30, 2020 /
12:39 AM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - World equity benchmarks dipped on
Thursday to close their best month in 11 years as a rebound in oil prices,
encouraging early results from a COVID-19 treatment trial and expectations of
more government stimulus helped ease the pain of February and March.
Safe-haven assets including the dollar and government bonds
were little changed, reflecting an unsettled market weighed down by concerns
about containing the coronavirus outbreak and jobs data in the United States
that was worse than expected.
“It’s a hope-based rally rather than an evidence-based
rally,” said Anthony Doyle, cross-asset specialist at fund manager Fidelity
International in Sydney.
There were still worries about a second wave of infections,
Doyle said, adding that huge piles of cash waiting to go back into the markets
suggest investors remained nervous.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS shed
0.79% following broad losses in Europe and gains in Asia that pushed Japan's
Nikkei .N225
to a seven-week high.
The index gained 10.5% in April, its best month since an
11.3% gain in April 2009 as the markets were recovering from the 2008 financial
crisis.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI fell
288.14 points, or 1.17%, to 24,345.72, the S&P 500 .SPX lost
27.08 points, or 0.92%, to 2,912.43 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC
dropped 25.16 points, or 0.28%, to 8,889.55.
U.S. jobless claims climb 3.8
million in late April to push coronavirus total to 30 million
Published: April 30, 2020 at 10:35 a.m. ET
The numbers: Some
3.8 million American workers who just lost their jobs applied last week for
unemployment benefits, bringing a record number of layoffs during the
coronavirus crisis to about 30 million in a month and a half.
The weekly pace of layoffs has slowed since peaking at 6.9
million at the end of March, but millions more are still expected to apply in
the next several weeks. And many are still waiting for states to process and
approve their claims.
The unprecedented surge in layoffs as business shutdown to combat the coronavirus
pandemic has pushed the unemployment rate to the highest levels since the Great
Depression of the 1930s. Pinning down the true level of unemployment isn’t
easy, but senior economist Sal Guatieri of BMO Capital Markets points out that
about 19% of the pre-crisis labor force has applied for benefits.
The official jobless rate will be released next week with the Labor
Department’s employment report for April.
What happened:
Last week, the states of Florida, Georgia, California, Texas and New York
reported the biggest increases in new claims, according to the
Labor Department.
The stunningly large number of job losses each week appears
to be winding down, but the damage has been deep and widespread.
The number of people collecting unemployment benefits,
known as continuing claims, jumped to 18 million as of April 18. These figures
are reported with a two-week lag.
Gallup: 25% of U.S. workers fear
they'll lose their jobs due to the coronavirus pandemic
Published: April 24, 2020 at 10:18 a.m. ET
The coronavirus pandemic has erased nearly all the jobs gains of the
last decade in just one month — and millions of people who still have their
jobs fear they’ll be next. New jobless claims in recent months have hit 26
million. Economists estimate the unemployment rate has jumped to between 15%
and 20%.
This is reflected in a new Gallup poll released this week, which paints
a dour picture for American workers: 25% of employed Americans now say it is
likely they will lose their jobs or be laid off in the next 12 months, compared
to 8% last year. Some 32% of employed Americans of color feel the same way,
versus 21% last year.
Employed women, lower-income Americans (those earning less than $40,000
per year) and non-college graduates worry more about the prospect of losing
their jobs compared to their counterparts, and nearly one quarter of employed
Americans earning less than $40,000 say they could be without a job for a week
or less before experiencing “significant financial hardship,” Gallup said.
---- Low-income renters are at a
high risk of eviction, according to Mary Cunningham, a fellow at the Urban
Institute, a left-of-center nonprofit policy group. The recent $2 trillion
CARES Act, a federal stimulus package, “didn’t do enough to address increases
in housing insecurity for the nearly 11 million low-income renter households
paying more than half their income toward rent,” she said.
South Korea's exports suffer worst
slump in 11 years as pandemic shatters world trade
May 1, 2020 / 3:43
AM
SEOUL (Reuters) -
The coronavirus crisis sent South Korean exports plunging in April at their
sharpest pace since the global financial crisis, signalling a bleak outlook for
international trade as the pandemic paralyses the world economy and shatters
demand.
Exports dived 24.3% year-on-year in April, trade ministry data showed on
Friday, the worst contraction since May 2009 but slightly slower than a 25.4%
fall tipped in a Reuters survey. It slid 0.7% in the previous month.
The average exports per working day, excluding the calendar effect,
however, tumbled 17.4%, far worse than a 6.9% fall seen in March.
South Korea, Asia’s fourth-largest economy, is considered a bellwether
for world trade and is the first among major exporting economies to release
data on shipments.
The grim numbers underline the sweeping impact of the pandemic and
points to a rough period for international trade as factories struggle amid
collapsing global demand. On Thursday, factory surveys for China, the world’s
biggest exporter, showed plummeting export orders.
Drug proves effective against
virus as economic damage rises
30 April 202006:15 am JST
NEW YORK
Scientists on Wednesday announced the first effective treatment against
the coronavirus — an experimental drug that can speed the recovery of COVID-19
patients — in a major medical advance that came as the economic gloom caused by
the scourge deepened in the U.S. and Europe.
The U.S. government said it is working to make the antiviral medication
remdesivir available to patients as quickly as possible.
“What it has proven is that a drug can block this virus,” said Dr.
Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government's top infectious-disease expert. “This will
be the standard of care.”
---- Still, word of the new drug came as the U.S.
government reported that American economic
output is shriveling in the biggest and fastest collapse since the
Depression. The virus has killed over 220,000 people worldwide, including more
than 60,000 confirmed deaths in the U.S., and led to lockdowns and other
restrictions that have closed factories and other businesses around the globe.
The U.S. said its gross domestic product, or output of
goods and services, shrank at an annual rate of 4.8% in the January-March
period, the sharpest quarterly drop since the global financial meltdown of more
than a decade ago.
And the worst is yet to come: The Congressional Budget
Office has estimated that the GDP of the world’s biggest economy will plunge at
a 40% annual rate during the three-month period that ends in June.
The latest figures on people applying for unemployment
benefits in the U.S. come out Thursday, with economists estimating perhaps 1 in
6 American workers, or nearly 30 million people, have lost their jobs over the
past six weeks.
The U.S. unemployment rate for April will be released at
the end of next week, and economists have said it could range as high as 20% —
a level last seen during the Depression.
Mario Franco, who worked at a McDonald’s at a rest stop
along Interstate 95 in Darien, Connecticut, for 26 years, rising to night
manager in charge of the kitchen staff, was laid off in late March. The
50-year-old said he has little savings and now relies on a food bank and union
donations.
“They didn’t give us any notice,” he said through an
interpreter. “They didn’t tell us about it. Just suddenly the night shift ended
and that was it. There was no more work.”
Confirmed infections globally reached about 3.2 million,
including 1 million in the U.S., according to a tally by Johns Hopkins
University. The true numbers of deaths and infections are believed to be much
higher because of limited testing, differences in counting the dead and concealment
by some governments.
California-based biotech company Gilead Sciences and the
U.S. government reported that in a major study, remdesivir
shortened the time it takes for COVID-19 patients to recover by four days on
average — from 15 days to 11. Also, a trend toward fewer deaths was seen among
those on the drug, Fauci said.
The study was run by the U.S. National Institutes of Health
and involved 1,063 hospitalized coronavirus patients around the world.
An effective treatment could have a profound effect on the
outbreak, since a vaccine is probably a year or more away.
Economic damage, meanwhile, is piling up around the world.
The United Nations’ main labor body predicted the world
will lose the equivalent of about 305 million full-time jobs in the second
quarter.
It also projected that 1.6 billion workers in the “informal
economy,” including those working beyond the reach of the government, “stand in
immediate danger of having their livelihoods destroyed.” That is nearly half
the global workforce of 3.3 billion people.
In Europe, almost every measure of the economy is in free
fall. Figures due to be released Thursday are expected to show a drop of about
4% in the first three months of the year in the eurozone, and an even steeper
hit is projected this quarter. Unemployment is expected to rise to about 8% in
March.
The figure would be worse if not for massive amounts of
government aid to keep millions of workers on payrolls. Government debt is
exploding to cover the costs of such relief.
“The lockdowns to contain the COVID-19 pandemic are taking
an unprecedented toll on the European economy,” said Florian Hense, an
economist at Berenberg Bank.
In Paris, aircraft maker Airbus reported
a first-quarter loss of 481 million euros ($515 million), laid off thousands of
workers and sought billions in loans to pull through the crisis. U.S.-based
rival Boeing said it is cutting 10% of its workforce and reducing the
production rate of commercial jets.
Italy’s credit rating was lowered in the first downgrade of
a major economy as a result of the crisis. Its rating stands just one level
above junk bond status. Italy expects its economy to shrink 8% this year.
Germany’s economy minister said the government is
projecting a contraction of about 11% in GDP by the end of the quarter. But he
also predicted a sharp recovery in 2021.
Many economists are skeptical the U.S. economy will bounce
back quickly later in the year, noting that the virus could flare up again or
consumers and employees might be too worried to return to business as usual.
“The virus has done a lot of damage to the economy, and
there is just so much uncertainty now,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at
Moody’s Analytics.
In other developments, Britain raised its death toll to
more than 26,000 after adding more than 3,800 nursing home deaths that were
previously not included.
With the crisis easing in places like Italy, France and
Spain, European governments are making adjustments in their transportation
networks to try to get their economies running again without setting
off a second wave of infections.
In Italy, Milan is putting red stickers on the floor to
tell bus passengers how far apart to stand. The Dutch are putting on longer,
roomier trains. Berlin and many other cities are opening up more lanes to bicyclists.
And in Britain, bus passengers are using the middle or rear doors to reduce the
risk to the driver.
Hollywood’s Great Depression:
Meet the Entertainment Workers Left Jobless by the Coronavirus Pandemic
Apr 29, 2020
6:00am PT
Mac Brandt was one of the lucky ones.
For the past six years, he’s made a living purely from
acting, appearing in television shows like “Kingdom” and “Arrested
Development,” and scrounging up enough jobs to pay the bills without having to
tend bar or wait tables. But life changed drastically for Brandt and much of
the entertainment industry in March, when work ground to a halt as the coronavirus swept across the
country. Movie theaters have gone dark, soundstages have shut their doors and
productions have been delayed indefinitely, leaving tens of thousands of people
like Brandt jobless and forced to navigate a grim economic landscape.
“I was on ‘Station 19’ the other night and people must be
going, ‘Oh this guy’s on TV; he must make a lot of money,” says Brandt. “But
it’s a working-class industry. You have to string together enough work and keep
auditioning in order to keep going. I can’t do that with everything shut down.”
In the meantime, Brandt has filed for unemployment and
obtained deferrals on his mortgage and car lease payments. He’s going to
refrain from paying off his credit cards, so he’ll have enough money to buy
essentials. And he’s waiting for a $1,200 stimulus check from the federal
government.
“If I paid all my bills, I wouldn’t have money for groceries,”
says the 39-year-old actor. “So you prioritize. I’ve got two young kids, and
the other night I was freaking out and thinking maybe I should get a job at
Amazon.”
The shutdown has lasted for less than two months, but in
that short time the fallout from the pandemic has brought the film, television,
music and theater businesses to their knees. It’s the greatest economic
calamity to ever hit Hollywood, Broadway and other entertainment business hubs,
dwarfing the wreckage left by such recent catastrophes as 9/11 and the Great
Recession. And it’s being felt most acutely by production designers, camera
operators, makeup artists, grips, stagehands, ticket takers, casting directors
and character actors, whose names may not adorn cinema marquees but whose work forms
the backbone of the business.
In February, the Motion Picture Assn. estimated that the
film and TV industry directly employs 892,000 people. It’s not yet known how
many of those jobs have been lost, but it’s possible to make a rough guess.
According to federal data, about 125,000 of those employees are movie theater
ushers and concessionaires — nearly all of whom have been furloughed or laid
off. Another 170,000 work as actors, directors, camera operators, lighting
technicians, set designers and other production workers — a large percentage of
whom are also not working.
Related industries have entirely shut down. Nationwide,
about 72,000 people work for theater companies. Some 210,000 people work for
amusement parks in the U.S., of which about 150,000 are employed in frontline
capacities like food service, ride operations, security and janitorial service.
The vast majority of them are now on furlough. In sum, several hundred thousand
people in the entertainment business, broadly defined, have likely lost their
jobs since the first week of March — many times more than lost their jobs in
the Great Recession.
New York Post Publisher Tells
Staff That Business Is ‘Drastically Disrupted’ by Coronavirus, Announces Layoffs
Updated Apr. 29, 2020 8:28PM ET / Published Apr. 29, 2020 6:54PM ET
The publisher of one of New York’s last remaining daily tabloids said
its business had been “drastically disrupted” by the economic impact of the
coronavirus crisis.
During a series of calls with staffers on Wednesday, New York Post publisher
Sean Giancola, announced that the company will take significant cost-cutting
measures to keep the publication afloat following the “significant decrease in
the advertising demand,” as business closures have shrunk budgets.
People familiar with the matter told The Daily Beast that more than a
dozen staffers were laid off. “The paper is dying,” said one staffer who was
axed.
---- The cuts come after News Corp announced they would stop printing 60
newspapers in Murdoch’s native Australia and the appointment
of consultants Deloitte to help slash costs and restructure the business down
under that boasts mastheads including The Australian and The Daily
Telegraph.
Meanwhile across the pond Murdoch’s News U.K.—which owns The
Times and The Sun—has asked some staff to take unpaid leave.
The Post’s top competitor, The New York Daily
News, last week announced furloughs while other staffers were earlier hit
with pay cuts of between 2-10% for any employee earning $67,000 or more.
Ominous and risky trends were around long before Covid-19,
making an L-shaped depression very likely
After the 2007-09 financial crisis, the imbalances and
risks pervading the global economy were exacerbated by policy mistakes. So,
rather than address the structural problems that the financial collapse and
ensuing recession revealed, governments mostly kicked the can down the road,
creating major downside
risks that made another crisis inevitable. And now that it has arrived, the
risks are growing even more acute. Unfortunately, even if the Greater Recession
leads to a lacklustre U-shaped recovery this year, an L-shaped “Greater
Depression” will follow later in this decade, owing to 10 ominous and risky
trends.
The first trend concerns deficits and their corollary
risks: debts and defaults. The policy response to the Covid-19 crisis entails a
massive increase in fiscal deficits – on the order of 10% of GDP or more – at a
time when public debt levels in many countries were already high, if not
unsustainable.
Worse, the loss of income for many households and firms means that
private-sector debt levels will become unsustainable, too, potentially leading
to mass defaults and bankruptcies. Together with soaring levels of public debt,
this all but ensures a more anaemic recovery than the one that followed the
Great Recession a decade ago.
Elsewhere, as expected, restarting China is easier said
than done. I suspect that will be the case everywhere. After viewing the
graphic in the section below of how a cough quickly spreads through a plane,
there’ll be no fast rush back onto planes and the cruise line prison ships.
Chinese factories struggle to
fire in April as slump in export orders deepens
April 30, 2020 /
2:25 AM
BEIJING
(Reuters) - China’s factories suffered a collapse in export orders in April,
twin surveys showed, suggesting a full-blown recovery appeared some way off as
the coronavirus health crisis shut down large parts of the world economy.
The sobering result comes amid moves by major nations to ease up on
lockdowns, underlining the stiff challenges facing businesses as policymakers
brace for the worst global slump since the Great Depression.
China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased to 50.8 in April
from 52 in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday, but
stayed above the neutral 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction
on a monthly basis.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a PMI reading of 51.
Worryingly, a sub-index of export orders for the world’s biggest
exporter dived to 33.5 in April from 46.4 in March with some factories even
having their orders cancelled after reopening, said Zhao Qinghe, senior
statistician at the NBS.
Export orders in the private Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing
Managers’ Index (PMI) survey, also released on Thursday, contracted at the
fastest pace since global financial crisis. The survey, which focuses mostly on
small and export-oriented businesses, showed activity for Chinese factories
unexpectedly shrank this month.
“It is still too early to conclude that the Chinese economy is growing
again,” said Iris Pang, Greater China chief economist at ING.
“The Western world has yet to relax some of its city lockdowns. And even
after the lockdowns are relaxed, it is uncertain when demand will return to
pre-Covid levels due to strict social distancing measures implemented
domestically and in foreign economies.”
----“The market’s optimism of a quick recovery in China
is fading,” Nomura analysts said in a note. “We expect export growth to slump
further to -30.0% in Q2 from -13.3% y-o-y in Q1 and real GDP growth to remain
negative at -0.5% y-o-y in Q2.”
China’s economy took a heavy blow in the first quarter, shrinking an
annual 6.8%, the first contraction since current quarterly records began almost
30 years ago.
“The survey shows that as many as 57.7% of the factories surveyed have
reported a lack of orders. Some have said market demand is tepid, product sales
are difficult and it will take time for orders to come back again,” NBS’ Zhao
said.
"We shouldn't pour cold water on everything. We, the eight
or nine players in global investment banking, have a very good future."
Deutsche Bank, CEO Josef Ackermann. Davos, January 2007.
Two financial crises in eleven years requiring massive
bailouts. What product do banks produce that mankind needs?
Covid-19 Corner
Though
hopefully, we are passing the peak of new cases, at least of the first
SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
The Medical Mystery of Positive
Covid-19 Tests in Recovered Patients
Apr 29, 2020
07:05 AM
Doctors and scientists are still grappling with the mystery
of patients who continue testing positive for the Covid-19 virus weeks after
recovery, even as China declared the pandemic’s initial epicenter Wuhan free of
cases.
More than 30 patients in Hubei province, including Wuhan,
have recovered from disease but continue to test positive, said Jiao Yahui, an
inspector at the National Health Commission, in an April 24 interview with the
state broadcaster.
Most patients who recovered from the coronavirus tested
negative on nucleic acid throat swabs around 20 daysafter the disease was first
detected. But some took an excessively long period of more than 40 days to get
negative readings, doctors said. And some patients who tested negative later returned to positive without showing symptoms,
doctors found.
The emergence of recovered patients remaining positive in tests for the
virus raises the questions of whether they can still be infectious and how long
such people can continue spreading the virus. It also poses challenges to
global efforts to continue containing the disease while bringing society back
to normal as the outbreak seemingly wanes.
This visualization shows how
droplets from a single cough can infect an entire airplane
April 29, 2020
The coronavirus pandemic has likely turned people off from
air travel for a bit, and this visualization produced by Purdue University probably won't change their minds.
The
motion graphic shows the aftermath of just a single cough on an airplane, with
tiny invisible droplets dispersing widely throughout the cabin, potentially
infecting a large number of fellow travelers. That's not a pleasant thought,
even in non-pandemic times.
A new analysis found that during the early weeks of the
coronavirus outbreak, the number of excess deaths in the US far exceeded the
number of deaths attributed to COVID-19, according
to The Washington Post.
In other words, the numbers suggest that the pandemic’s
death toll could be vastly higher than what the government has been reporting
so far.
Official records collected from the beginning of March
through early April and released by the National Center for Health Statistics
(NCHS) were analyzed by a team of Yale School of Public Health experts. The
analysis showed an estimated 15,4000 excess deaths — twice as many as those
attributed to the deadly coronavirus at the time.
The excess deaths, however, can’t directly be blamed on the
virus itself, as the number likely includes those who didn’t seek medical
treatment for other illnesses due to fear of catching the coronavirus at a
medical treatment facility. Other factors, including statistical variabilities
and fluctuations in different causes of death, could also explain the
difference.
Even correcting for lags in reporting numbers — something
the NCHS’s tally takes into consideration — only two thirds of excess deaths
are accounted for, according to the Yale researchers.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Rolls-Royce to work with graphene
experts to pioneer the next generation of aero engines
The initial programme will use the state-of-the-art
chemical vapour deposition (CVD) equipment located within the GEIC.
The collaboration will look to explore, understand and
create technological advances surrounding the use of graphene and other 2D
materials used in wiring for next-generation aerospace engine systems.
The work will seek to use the unique properties of these 2D
materials to reduce the weight of electrical components, improve electrical
performance and also increase resistance to corrosion of components in future
engine systems.
The programme aims to present potential economic benefits,
through the possibility of significant cost reductions, and global
environmental benefits, through the reduction of energy use and lower emissions
from electrification.
Neill Ricketts, Chief Executive of Versarien, said: “The
pursuit of sustainability has become an important goal for many companies in
recent years. Rolls-Royce is one of the world’s leading industrial technology
companies and today, the size and impact of the markets its serves makes this
task more urgent than ever.
“Taking advantage of advanced materials such as graphene,
has the potential to revolutionise these markets and add real benefit.
“The partnership with Rolls-Royce is a significant
endorsement to 2-DTech’s work over the years and we are delighted it has been
chosen by such a renowned business and look forward to working together.”
Dr Al Lambourne, Materials Specialist at Rolls-Royce, said:
“Partnering with the GEIC and its members makes perfect sense
to Rolls-Royce as we explore the opportunities and properties of a new class of
2D materials.
“Using the unique capabilities of 2-DTech and the GEIC we
hope to address some of the challenges facing materials in the global aerospace
industry, as we pioneer the electrification of future aircraft.”
Another
weekend and a scary weekend for the rising unemployed.We may not be doing a very good job of
killing off the Sars-Cov-2 virus which leads into Covid-19, but we have
collectively done an amazing job of killing off capitalism and the global
economy 1945 – January 2020.
Whether
we can do such an amazing job of restarting capitalism and the economy again seems
less certain. Have a great weekend everyone.
"a company for carrying out an
undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is"
Following the markets on both sides of the Atlantic since 1968. A dinosaur, who evolved with the financial system as it was perverted from capitalism to banksterism after the great Nixonian error of abandoning the dollar's link to gold instead of simply revaluing gold. Our money is too important to be left to probity challenged central banksters and crooked politicians.
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