Baltic Dry Index. 489 -13 Brent Crude 35.08
Spot Gold 1720
Coronavirus Cases 29/5/20
World 5,939,401
Deaths 369,857
Reality is a question of perspective; the further you get
from the past, the more concrete and plausible it seems — but as you approach
the present, it inevitably seems incredible.
Salman
Rushdie
It’s Friday, and
the end of the month occasion to dress up the stock casinos closing indexes to
delay hedge and mutual fund redemptions, and boost performance bonus payments
to the very few professional investment money managers that haven’t just been
bailed out by the central banksters.
Today we take a
sober look at the global reality outside of the gilded cage of the central bankster
bailout club.
40.8 Million Out Of Work In The Past 10 Weeks — 26% Of Labor Force
More than 1 in 4 U.S. workers have lost their jobs since the coronavirus crisis shut down much of the economy in March.
Just last week, another 2.1 million
people filed for unemployment benefits, the Labor Department said
Thursday. That's down 323,000 from the previous week but brings the
total for the past 10 weeks to 40.8 million, which represents 26% of the
civilian labor force in April.
Employment dropped steeply in most
areas of the country in recent weeks, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday. A Fed
survey found that "employment continued to fall sharply in
retail and in leisure and hospitality sectors."
"Contacts cited challenges in
bringing employees back to work, including workers' health concerns, limited
access to childcare, and generous unemployment insurance benefits," the
Fed said in its Beige Book survey.
Signs of an ailing job market are
everywhere:
- Boeing is cutting more than 12,000 jobs after the sudden drop in air travel hit the airplane manufacturing giant hard.
- A number of major retailers, including J.C. Penney, Neiman Marcus and J. Crew, have filed for bankruptcy.
- With tax revenues dwindling, cities large and small are facing deep budget deficits, forcing them to furlough municipal workers. Nearly 1 million government workers were laid off in April alone.
And Amazon announced
Thursday that it's offering full-time jobs to 125,000 of the 175,000
temporary employees it hired during the pandemic.
Retail Announces 114,327, Most on Record, as Retailers Close More Stores, File Bankruptcy
Retailer Pier 1 Imports announced it would close all remaining 540
stores and try to find a buyer for its online business. It follows bankruptcy
announcements from JC Penney, J. Crew, and Neiman Marcus.
"Retail has been undergoing technological updates, shifting
consumer behavior and low foot traffic over the last three years that has led
to mass closures of brick-and-mortar establishments and job cuts," said
Andrew Challenger, SVP of global outplacement and executive coaching firm
Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
"The current COVID crisis is exacerbating Retail woes. Companies
that did not have a robust online offering are being hit particularly
hard," he added.
In fact, according to an analysis from Business Insider, 9,300 stores
closed in 2019, breaking the record of 8,000 store closures in 2018. According
to Coresight Research, another 15,000 stores could close in 2020.
Meanwhile, Retailers have announced 114,327 job cuts through April in
2020, not only the highest January-April total, but also the highest annual
total on record. It shatters the previous high of 100,518 cuts announced by
Retailers in all of 2003.
"While the Entertainment/Leisure sector leads all job cut
announcements this year, Retailers come in second and have led job cut
announcements in all industries since 2017," said Challenger.
Retailers have already announced 47% more job cuts than in all of 2019
when 77,475 were announced. In 2018, Retailers announced 98,563 job cuts, then
the highest annual total since 2009 when 98,807 Retail job cuts were announced.
More
Fashion Stockrooms Are Bursting at the Seams
Unsold merchandise has piled up at clothing retailers during lockdowns. That is bad news for profit margins but great for shoppers.
By May 28, 2020 5:50 am ET
With fashion retailers sitting on a glut of unsold
clothing, shoppers can expect serious bargains once shops reopen. The hit to
profit margins could be dire.
Merchandise has piled up at stores
since they were closed by lockdown
measures. For all U.S. retailers, the inventory-to-sales ratio—a
measure of how much stock they hold relative to monthly sales—hit an almost
11-year high of 1.53 in March, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis. April data, due to be released in a few weeks, will likely show another
jump.
Clothing retail’s dependence on
fast-changing seasons and fashion trends makes it particularly exposed to the
problems caused by high inventory levels. Swedish chain H&M
Hennes & Mauritz reported a 10% jump in stock-in-trade for the end
of April compared with two months earlier.
Weak online demand means retailers
haven’t been able to shift as much merchandise as they would like via home
deliveries. At Zalando, one of Europe’s biggest fashion e-commerce
players, garments now spend a median of five weeks on the site before being
sold, up from two weeks in the fourth quarter of last year, according to
research by UBS
analyst Olivia Townsend.
Retailers have taken some action to
tackle the stock overhang, but the effects will be limited. The average fashion
chain can cancel less than one-fifth of orders placed with suppliers, according
to supply-chain experts. Since many large retailers source garments from Asia
up to six months in advance, most of their inventory for the spring and summer
was already in warehouses or in transit when stores closed.
And while some stock can be carried
over to next year to increase the chance of selling it at full price, few
brands are in a position to tie up precious cash in working capital for months
on end. One of Britain’s biggest fashion retailers, Next
PLC, has said it would carry over just 15% of its collection.
More
Pandemic hit to Japan's factory, retail sectors deeper than expected; jobless rate up to 2.6%
TOKYO
Japan's April factory output fell at a much faster-than-expected pace
and retail sales tumbled the most in more than two decades as a
coronavirus-triggered state of emergency dealt a heavy blow to the economy.
Global activity ground to a halt in April as government-imposed
lockdowns due to the pandemic disrupted supply chains and led consumers to
postpone many purchases, putting a damper on the outlook for the world's
third-largest economy.
Official data on Friday showed factory output slipped 9.1% in April from
the previous month, the biggest drop since comparable data became available in
2013 as automakers and iron and steel manufacturers suffered sharp output
declines due to weak global demand.
That was a much larger decline than the 5.1% drop in a Reuters forecast.
Separate data showed retail sales tumbled at their fastest pace since
March 1998 as the nationwide state of emergency led service-sector businesses
such as restaurants to close and encouraged consumers to stay home.
Retail sales plunged 13.7% in April from a year earlier, heavily weighed
by slumping demand for general merchandise and clothing as well as motor
vehicles.
The gloomy data comes after Japan's export-reliant economy fell into
recession for the first time in 4-1/2 years in the first quarter.
The government this week lifted the state of emergency and approved a
second 117 trillion yen ($1.1 trillion) stimulus package, bringing the total
pledged to save the economy from the pandemic to $2.2 trillion, or about 40% of
gross domestic product (GDP).
Japan was already trying to shake off weak demand before the outbreak
after the government raised the nationwide sales tax to repair its public debt
burden, which is more than twice the size of GDP.
Other government data on Friday further highlighted the widening hit to
the jobs market from the outbreak.
The April jobless rate rose to 2.6%, its highest since December 2017,
while the number of non-regular workers posted the biggest year-on-year drop on
record.
Job availability slipped to 1.32, its lowest since March 2016.
The factory output data showed manufacturers surveyed by the government
expect output to fall another 4.1% in May, followed by a 3.9% rise in June.
Japanese automakers' April sales more than halved
May 28, 2020 /
10:47 AM
(Reuters) - Global auto sales for Japanese carmakers more
than halved in April as the coronavirus pandemic forced governments to impose
lockdowns that left streets empty and showrooms deserted. Japan’s top eight automakers together posted a decline of 54.4% in April sales, according to a Reuters calculation.
Toyota Motor’s (7203.T) worldwide sales including units Daihatsu and Hino (7205.T) fell 45% to 472,703 vehicles - the fourth straight month of declines. Toyota’s performance was dragged down by a 51% slump in sales outside Japan.
Japan’s largest automaker this month said it expected profit this year to drop by 80% to its lowest in nine years, underscoring the challenge that even the most profitable carmakers are having to contend with during the pandemic.
Auto sales have slumped all around the world, including the two biggest markets, China and the United States.
While China reported an upturn in April auto sales from a year earlier by virtue of pent up demand after weeks of lockdown, annual sales could still fall by 15-25%.
Auto retail sales in the United States are likely to have halved in April, according to analytics firm J.D. Power. However, sales in May are expected to improve as most carmakers offer attractive incentives to boost demand as lockdowns ease.
Honda Motor’s (7267.T) global April sales fell 43% and Nissan Motor (7201.T) sold nearly 42% fewer cars than the same month last year.
Nissan on Thursday posted its first annual loss in 11 years and unveiled a plan to become a smaller, more cost-efficient automaker.
German economy likely to shrink 6.6% this year due to coronavirus: Ifo
May 28, 2020 /
7:12 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) - The German economy is likely to shrink by 6.6% this
year as a consequence of the coronavirus crisis before growing by 10.2% in
2021, the Ifo Institute said on Thursday in its latest update.
On average, businesses expected operations to return to normal in nine
months after severe lockdowns in the second quarter, Ifo said. Under this
scenario, the economy would shrink 12.4% in the second quarter of this year.
A slew of recent surveys suggests Europe’s largest economy is slowly
recovering after economic life was frozen in late March to contain the
coronavirus pandemic, but the latest data underlines the unprecedented impact.
Under a worst-case scenario in which a return to normal took 16 months,
the economy would shrink 9.3% this year and grow 9.5% the next. The most benign
scenario had companies recovering in five months, with the economy shrinking by
just 3.9% and growing 7.4% next year.
All three scenarios, based on business sentiment as well as production,
turnover and foreign trade data, assumed a gradual relaxation of restrictions
from the end of April.
Some businesses were braced for a longer, more painful recovery,
however: in particular the aviation sector expected normalisation to take 16
months. The travel, hospitality and carmaking sectors also expected lengthier
recovery periods.
Berlin Tegel Airport to close as passenger numbers plummet
Berlin's busiest airport looks set to close
on June 15 for at least two months, and perhaps for good if a long-stalled new
airport ever actually opens. The measure aims to save money amid ongoing travel
bans.
28 May 2020
Berlin's Tegel Airport is likely temporarily close from June 15 to save
costs amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, after shareholders agreed to this
measure on Wednesday.
The federal government and the states of Berlin and Brandenburg agreed
in principled to the decision during a video conference with shareholders.
Airport operator FBB would close Tegel for around two months, aiming to save
around €200,000 ($220,000) a day.
"In the next few months we will see if the capital region needs one
or two airports," FBB chief Lütke Dalrup told the Deutsche Presse-Agentur.
"Now it is about taking the next steps responsibly. Our next job is to
ensure the recovery of the air industry and not hinder it."
All traffic would be handled by Berlin Schönefeld airport, which
operates mainly budget airlines like easyJet and Ryanair.
Tegel and Schönefeld have seen only around 2,000 passengers per day in
recent weeks.
Despite being earmarked for closure for years now, amid faltering plans
to open a larger replacement hub for the capital, Berlin Tegel remains
Berlin's busiest airport. At least 24 million people flew via Tegel in
2019, making it Germany's fourth busiest airport.
Tegel was once set to close for good in June 2012, ceasing operations
after the newly constructed Berlin Brandenburg airport (BER) was scheduled to
open in 2011. But the BER airport is still unfinished after repeated delays,
attributed to everything from design flaws to corruption scandals.
The FBB announced last year that Berlin Brandenburg would begin
operations in October of this year. The coronavirus pandemic has cast further
doubt onto an opening date that was elevated to the status of a running joke in
Berlin years ago — but the FBB remains optimistic it can open on
schedule.
It's no longer entirely clear if Tegel will close completely if and when
Berlin Brandenburg airport is ever operational: a public referendum in 2017
called for Tegel to remain in operation regardless.
French jobless total surged 22.6% in April to record high
May 28, 2020 /
11:09 AM
PARIS (Reuters) - The number of people in France looking for jobs surged
in April by 22.6% to a record high as a nationwide coronavirus lockdown shut
down swathes of the economy, Labour Ministry data showed on Thursday.
The number of people registered as seeking work jumped by 843,000 from
March to 4,575,500, the highest since records began in 1996, the Labour
Ministry said.
The ministry said that the surge was due to a nearly 35% drop in the
number of people getting new jobs while the number of people of joining the
tally fell 19%.
The data do not include people who have been put on state-subsided
furloughs during the crisis, which the ministry said on Wednesday numbered
nearly 13 million.
France’s government put the country under one of the most strict
lockdowns in Europe in mid March and the country is only gradually emerging
after most restrictions were lifted on May 11.
Reality
is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one.
Albert Einstein
Covid-19 Corner
Though
hopefully, we are passing/have passed the peak of new cases, at least of the
first SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this section will continue until it becomes
unneeded.
South Korea re-imposes some coronavirus restrictions after spike in new cases
Museums, parks, and art galleries will all be closed again from Friday for two weeks, with authorities struggling to identify transmission routes
Thu 28 May 2020 11.53 BST
South Korea has reimplemented strict lockdown measures in the capital Seoul following the biggest spike of new coronavirus infections in nearly two months.
Museums, parks, and art galleries will all be closed again from Friday for two weeks, health minister Park Neung-hoo said. Companies are being urged to reintroduce flexible working hours among other measures.
The move follows the biggest daily increase in coronavirus cases in 53 days, in a country that appeared to have brought the outbreak under control. The new lockdown will take effect in the capital’s metropolitan area, which is home to half of South Korea’s 51 million people. It will remain in place until June 14.
Residents of Seoul have also been advised to avoid social gatherings or going to crowded places, including restaurants and bars. Religious facilities have been asked to be extra vigilant with quarantine measures.
More
First results from human COVID-19 immunology study reveal universally effective antibodies
by Rockefeller
University May 26, 2020
Antibodies vary widely in their efficacy. While many may latch on to the virus, only some are truly "neutralizing," meaning that they actually block the virus from entering the cells.
Since April 1, a team of immunologists, medical scientists, and virologists, has been collecting blood samples from volunteers who have recovered from COVID-19. The majority of the samples they have studied showed poor to modest "neutralizing activity," indicating a weak antibody response.
However, a closer look revealed everyone's immune system is capable of generating effective antibodies—just not necessarily enough of them. Even when neutralizing antibodies were not present in an individual's serum in large quantities, researchers could find some rare immune cells that make them.
"This suggests just about everybody can do this, which is very good news for vaccines," says Michel C. Nussenzweig, head of the Laboratory of Molecular Immunology at Rockefeller. "It means if you were able to create a vaccine that elicits these particular antibodies, then the vaccine is likely to be effective and work for a lot of people."
Moreover, the researchers identified three distinct antibodies that were shown to be the most potent of the bunch in neutralizing the virus. They are working to develop them further into therapeutic and preventive drugs.
The findings are shared on BioRxiv ahead of submission to peer-reviewed scientific journals. Nussenzweig's collaborators include, Davide F. Robbiani, Marina Caskey, Paul Bieniasz, Theodora Hatziioannou, and Charles M. Rice.
Immunity to coronaviruses: What do we know so far?
Date:
May 21, 2020
Source:
Microbiology Society
Summary:
A new article discusses the existing knowledge about immune responses to
SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses, and how this could be used to inform virus
control strategies.
A new review discusses the findings from over 40 studies on coronavirus
immunity and what they could mean for the Covid-19 pandemic.
Written by top UK virologists, the article discusses the existing
knowledge about immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses, and how
this could be used to inform virus control strategies. The review, which is
free to read in the Journal of General Virology (JGV), collates the
available scientific evidence in a number of key areas, including how long
immunity to coronaviruses lasts and the prospect of antibody testing.
In the review, Professors Paul Kellam and Wendy Barclay from Imperial
College London examine what is so far known about immunity to coronaviruses
including SARS, MERS and the four strains of seasonal coronaviruses that
circulate in humans every winter. The article goes on to suggest that
SARS-CoV-2 could become the fifth seasonal coronavirus with epidemics of the
virus occurring over the next several years.
"SARS-CoV-2 is a new virus in humans and because of this we are
having to learn quickly many of its basic properties. In the absence of such
data right now, we can try to make predictions about the immune response to
SARS-CoV-2 by re-examining what we know about the two epidemic coronavirus of
humans, SARS and MERS and the four seasonal human coronavirus. We need to be
cautious about inferring too much, but it is a good place to start.'
"We do not really know what happens on the pathway of a new
coronavirus in humans becoming an endemic seasonal infection, but it could be
that when the four seasonal coronavirus first jumped from animals into humans
they were much like SARS-CoV-2 in their transmission and pathogenesis. Over
time as population immunity to the seasonal coronavirus became widespread, the
amount of severe disease probably declines. However, seasonal coronavirus can
still cause pneumonia in some people," said Professor Kellam.
A number of factors, including severity of disease influence how long antibody
protection against both SARS and MERS lasts. Studies have shown that antibody
protection wanes over time. For seasonal coronaviruses where disease is mild,
there have even been reports of reinfection after as little as 80 days.
"We need to find out many things about SARS-CoV-2 immunity, such as how
good is the immune response and how long does it last. We also need to
understand if people with mild or asymptomatic infections develop a strong or
weak immune response and what measurable properties of immunity predict
protection from infection. When we know more about these things, we will be
better able to understand how SARS-CoV-2 infections will continue over time.
However, vaccines are not infections, therefore it is likely that some of the
vaccines candidates will be better at inducing long lasting immunity and
protection from infection," said Professor Kellam.
The authors also discuss the currently available antibody tests for
SARS-CoV-2 and explain the differences between these tests, their accuracy and
limitations. Knowing the level of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in the population
could be key in controlling the spread of disease and understanding how many
people are at risk of infection.
"Understanding immune responses to these viruses is on many people's
minds- from the public hearing about vaccines, testing and antibodies, to
policy makers, and scientists working on or with an interest in the current
pandemic." said Alain Kohl, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of JGV). The
Editor-in-Chief Paul Duprex added: "This review gives an up to date, and
superbly researched overview of this field. Many people will find areas or
topics of interest in this article, that should help them understand the
important discussions going on. We are delighted to see it published in the
journal."
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Surface treatment makes aluminum antiviral and antibacterial
Ben Coxworth May 27, 2020
If
there's one place where you don't want viruses or harmful bacteria to be
present, it's in hospitals, where people are already vulnerable. A new process
could help, by allowing aluminum surfaces in such buildings to kill the bugs.
Led
by Prof. Prasad Yarlagadda, scientists at Australia's Queensland Institute of
Technology started by exposing discs of ordinary 6063 aluminum alloy to
corrosive sodium hydroxide (aka: lye) for three hours. Doing so altered the
metal's smooth surface on a microscopic level, etching a series of ridges into
it. The surface also became hydrophilic, meaning that it attracted water.
When viruses and bacteria (such as Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus) were subsequently placed on the treated aluminum, they were drawn across the tiny ridges. This caused the microbes' outer membranes to sag between the ridges and rupture, killing them. Certain insects' wings neutralize bacteria in the same fashion.
Most of the bacteria were eliminated within three hours of contact, while numbers of common respiratory viruses dropped considerably within two hours. These figures were considerably better than those that were observed for plastic or smooth aluminum surfaces. In fact, even after testing that simulated the wear and tear that might occur in a hospital setting over time, the treated discs remained effective.
The scientists believe that the technology could also be applied to frequently touched surfaces in other busy public settings, such as cruise ships or airports.
A paper on the research was recently published in the journal ACS Biomaterials Science & Engineering.
Source: American Chemical Society
Another weekend and with each passing week, fewer shutdown
SMEs are likely to reopen, or if they do, reopen at full pre-March 2020
strength.
Today’s lead article puts positive spin on Amazon about
to offer permanent jobs to 125,000 recently hired temporary workers. The negative
spin, how many of the other 50,000 recent temporary hires are about to be let
go?
No matter how the stock casinos spin it, we are not about
to return to 2019 anytime soon, if ever, if Covid-19 becomes an annual seasonal
flu like event. South Korea’s rebound in new cases is a major cause for
concern.
Stay safe and have a great weekend everyone.
Few people have the imagination for reality.
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished April
DJIA: 24,346 +26 Down. NASDAQ: 8,890 +162 Up.
SP500: 2,912 +89 Down.
The NASDAQ has rebounded to
up. The S&P and the DJIA remain down.
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