Baltic Dry Index. 502 -04 Brent Crude 33.67
Spot Gold 1715
Coronavirus Cases 28/5/20
World 5,799,575
Deaths 359,413
When
things are bad, we take comfort in the thought that they could always be worse.
And when they are, we find hope in the thought that things are so bad they have
to get better.
Malcolm
Forbes.
In central
bankster/Trump re-election land, all is well. The stock casinos are booming,
poised to rush on to taking out the all time highs in America. What could
possibly go wrong?
The Fed continues
flooding the casino gamblers with oceans of new cash. The algo traders front
run the order stream of the Muppets, as they are affectionately known at Goldie.
In the rear view
mirror picture, lies a nuclear wasteland of shuttered, malls, shops,
manufacturing, old fashioned casinos, eateries of all sizes and types, meat
processing plants, parked planes, cruise ships, idled nodding donkeys.
A struggling, workless
population, forms massive miles long lines at food banks, in vehicles they can
no longer pay for, with rising calls for rent strikes, ala 1918-1919 and the “Spanish
flu” pandemic.
Later today, the
latest new US unemployment filings, plus an estimate on how much US GDP fell in
the first quarter of 2020.
But, but, but, the
view out of the windscreen is much better, say the casino gamblers, it’s all a wonderful
Utopia, a sunny well watered, fertile plain of milk and honey, with free cash
for all. A Covid-19 vaccine by September. What’s not to like?
Below, our 2020
version of the South Sea Bubble.
Stocks gain on economic hopes, but Hong Kong risk clouds outlook
May 28, 2020 /
1:11 AM
TOKYO/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Asian shares
and U.S. stock futures rose on Thursday as growing optimism about a global
economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic trumped immediate concerns
about a standoff between the United States and China over Hong Kong.
Australian shares rose 2.22% to the firmest in more than two months, while Japan's Nikkei stock index .N225 rose 2.01% to the highest since late February as investors cheered the re-opening of economic activity in both countries.
U.S. stock futures, S&P 500 e-minis, rose 0.36% on Thursday in Asia following another positive session on Wall Street overnight, highlighting the optimistic mood.
However, the biggest risk to equities is the Sino-U.S. relationship, which is likely to worsen after U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Hong Kong no longer warranted special treatment under U.S. law.
“The overall tone is in support of risk-on trades, and we can see less short-selling and more willingness to test the upside in equities,” said Yukio Ishizuki, FX strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.
“There remains a fair amount of concern about Hong Kong, but for now markets look like they will remain calm.”
The S&P 500 .SPX had closed above 3,000 for the first time in almost 12 weeks, bolstered by bank stocks, as investors hoped that the world economy can recover as it re-opens. [.N]
More
The Dow just punched above an important line in the sand that may signal that a record high is next
Published: May 27, 2020 at 9:57
p.m. ET
The Dow closed above a key technical level that is viewed
by market technicians as a signal that a new bullish trend may be at hand. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +2.21% finished up 2.2% at 25,548.27 on Wednesday, with the market buoyed by optimism around business reopenings after being locked down for the past several weeks due to efforts to curb the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Dow’s rally on Wednesday afternoon represents a steady move toward retracing 61.8% of the 124-year old benchmark’s coronavirus selloff from its record high in February to a low late March.
The blue-chip benchmark’s finish above 25,364.89 on Wednesday, indicates to market technicians that a new trend has been established and that the next move for the Dow may be eclipsing its record high put in on Feb. 12 at 29,551.42 (see attached chart).
“The breakout supports a full 100%
retracement of the downdraft, so targets February’s high, and the same will
apply for the [Dow industrials],” Katie Stockton, market technician and founder
of Fairlead Strategies, told MarketWatch of the Dow’s retracement, while also
referencing the S&P 500’s retracement, which was decisively
cleared last week.
More
Published: May 27, 2020 at 2:47
p.m. ET
The outlook: The U.S. economic downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic
remained in full strength in the middle of May, with activity falling sharply
and steep job losses seen, according to the latest survey of economic
conditions, known as the Beige Book, released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The report, a
summary of a survey of business contacts, found that most were pessimistic
about the potential pace of recovery.What happened: Some sectors, like leisure and hospitality continued to be hit hardest by the stay-at-home orders. Factory activity was down sharply and agricultural conditions were deteriorating. One bright spot was an upturn in auto sales towards the middle of May. Wage pressure was mixed. Pricing pressures varied but “were steady to down modestly” on balance.
Big picture: Economic growth in the April-June quarter is going to contract at sharp rate. Policy-makers are starting to turn their attention to what happens next. New York Fed President John Williams and St Louis Fed President James Bullard on Wednesday said the economy was either at or near bottom and that there would be a rebound in the second half of the year.
What are they saying? “The bottom line is that the U.S. economy is quite far from being out of the woods yet. If there is anything to be gleaned about policy, it is that more needs to be done on the fiscal and monetary front, or perhaps both, before a meaningful recovery can take hold,” said Thomas Simons, money market economist at Jefferies.
Market reaction: Stocks were higher on Wednesday afternoon in a volatile session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +2.21% was up 253 points in afternoon trading, with the Nasdaq COMP, +0.77% took a late U-turn into positive territory.
May 28, 2020 /
5:05 AM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Job cuts by U.S.
state and local governments whose budgets have been crushed fighting the
COVID-19 pandemic and more second-wave layoffs in the private sector likely
contributed last week to a 10th straight week of more than 2 million Americans
seeking unemployment benefits.
The Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims report on Thursday, the
most timely data on the economy’s health, is also expected to show the number
of people on jobless benefits hitting a new record high in mid-May.
The report is being watched to assess how quickly the economy rebounds
after businesses shuttered in mid-March to control the spread of COVID-19 and
almost ground the country to a halt. While non-essential businesses are
starting to reopen, claims have stayed at astonishingly high levels.
“I am concerned that we are seeing a second round of private sector
layoffs that, coupled with a rising number of public sector cut backs is
driving up the number of people unemployed,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist
at Naroff Economics in Holland, Pennsylvania.
“If that is the case, given the pace of reopening, we could be in for an
extended period of extraordinary high unemployment. And that means the
recovery will be slower and will take a lot longer.”
The number of people filing new claims for state unemployment benefits
likely totaled a seasonally adjusted 2.1 million for the week ended May 23,
down from 2.438 million the prior week, according to a Reuters survey of economists.
----The Commerce Department is expected to confirm in another report on
Thursday that gross domestic product contracted at a 4.8% annualize rate in the
first quarter, the deepest decline in output since the 2007-09 Great Recession.
The second wave of layoffs could grow bigger, with Boeing (BA.N) announcing on Wednesday it was eliminating more than 12,000 U.S. jobs and also disclosing it planned “several thousand remaining layoffs” in the next few months.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on Wednesday, comprising anecdotal information on business activity from contacts nationwide on or before May 18, was equally grim. Its depiction of the labor market said “employment continued to decrease in all districts” and “continued to fall sharply in retail and in leisure and hospitality sectors.”
More
By Lauren VictoryMay 27, 2020 at 5:27 am
About 30 miles west of Chicago’s hustle and bustle lies the
quiet Glen Ellyn; the suburb’s neatly-kept homes bring in an average six
figures each year.That makes the scene at Grace Lutheran Church in the middle of the village, frankly, unexpected.
“It is a surprise to people,” said Paula Nugent, who helps run the Glen Ellyn Food Pantry out of the church.
The unloading, sorting, and packing operation has fed needy people in Glen Ellyn and 10 surrounding communities for more than 40 years, but this kind of frenzy is new. Suddenly, 42% more food is heading out the door.
“All of the restaurants, shops, everything is closed; and so I think people that have been able to make ends meet suddenly can’t do that,” Nugent said.
Appointments are up 98%. More than 1,500 people came through in the month of April alone.
More
Next, European
news. Luckily, no stock brokers, traders, banksters, or financiers, who were
all bailed out by their friends at the central banks, have suffered in the
”we’re all in it together,” coronavirus crisis.
Euro zone economy to shrink between 8% and 12% in 2020: Lagarde
May 27, 2020 /
8:55 AM
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The euro zone economy is likely to shrink between
8% and 12% this year as it struggles to overcome the impact of the coronavirus
pandemic, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday.
The ECB earlier said the economy could shrink by between 5% and 12%, but
speaking in a youth dialogue, Lagarde said that the “mild” scenario is already
outdated and the actual outcome would be between the “medium and “severe”
scenarios.
French economy could contract 20% in second quarter: INSEE
May 27, 2020 /
7:10 AM
PARIS (Reuters) - France’s economy is on course to contract 20% in the
second quarter from the previous three months as the country emerges from a
nationwide coronavirus lockdown, the INSEE official statistics agency estimated
on Wednesday.
That would mark a sharp deterioration in France’s recession after the
euro zone’s second-biggest economy contracted 5.8% in the first quarter.
INSEE said the economy could contract 8% for the whole of 2020 in the
unlikely scenario that activity returned to pre-crisis levels by July.
INSEE estimated that France’s economic activity was running at 21% below
normal levels after the lockdown in place from mid-March was lifted on May 11.
Activity was down 33% in early May.
Consumer spending was only 6% below normal levels since most stores were
allowed to re-open after nearly two months, a sharp improvement from the 33%
seen in early May.
A monthly survey from INSEE showed consumer confidence continued to
weaken in May, falling to its lowest level since January 2019 when the country
was in the grip of anti-government protests.
Households’ concerns about the general economy remained in May at levels
unseen since the survey began in 1972, while unemployment fears were the highest
since the global financial crisis in 2009.
Meanwhile, business confidence improved from record lows reached in
April, but remained at deeply depressed levels, a separate monthly survey from
INSEE showed.
Frozen UK property funds face existential crisis
May 26, 2020 /
8:11 AM
LONDON (Reuters) -
British property funds are set to remain frozen for months as the market is
impossible to value due to the coronavirus crisis, and some may need to change
structure to survive, industry sources say.
Ten big open-ended property funds tracked by Morningstar, with a total of 6.5 billion pounds under management, stopped investors from getting their money out in mid March, saying valuers could not accurately assess real estate assets in a plunging economy.
With question marks over the future of office working, the retail industry in crisis and the housing market only just reopening, the price of property is set for a major readjustment, but a dearth of transactions means the scale of change is still unclear.
“This is a crisis unlike any other,” said Ben Sanderson, a director at Hermes Real Estate Investment Management
“In the short term, it’s going to be hugely challenging.”
Many of the Morningstar-tracked funds are aimed at retail investors who could take their money out daily, managed by household names like Aviva (AV.L) and Legal & General (LGEN.L).
Such funds also suspended during the 2008/09 financial crisis and after the 2016 Brexit vote because their hard-to-sell assets meant they could not meet daily redemption requests.
But this crisis has extended further into the 70 billion pound UK property fund sector.
For the first time, funds aimed at institutional investors like charities and pension funds have also locked their doors.
These funds typically only allow redemptions monthly or quarterly.
Twenty of the 29 institutional-focused funds in the MSCI/AREF UK All Balanced Property Fund Index have suspended or deferred redemption payments, according to a Reuters survey, including funds managed by BlackRock (BLK.N), Federated Hermes (FHI.N), Savills and Schroders (SDR.L).
Three with different structures have remained open and six did not respond to requests for comment.
Industry sources
said it was unlikely funds would unfreeze before September, and what happens
then is unclear.
More
British Land pretax loss widens, revenue falls
Published: May
27, 2020 at 2:32 a.m. ET
British Land Co. PLC said Wednesday that its pretax loss widened and
revenue fell in fiscal 2020, hit by the coronavirus pandemic in its fourth
quarter.
The real-estate company posted a widened pretax loss of 1.12 billion
pounds ($1.38 billion) for the year ended March 30, compared with a loss of
GBP319 million a year earlier. Revenue fell 32% to GBP613 million, driven down
by a volatile market reflecting Brexit uncertainty and coronavirus-related
damage to the retail market, as non-essential goods and services were forced to
temporarily close during the lockdown period.
Around 68% of the rent due for the period from March 2 to April 30 has
been collected, lowered primarily by the retail division collecting just 43% of
rents, the company said. A further 40% of retail rent has been deferred, and 5%
forgiven or switched to monthly payments, it added. Occupancy remains high at
96% in retail, and 97% across London campuses, British Land said.
EPRA net asset value--an adjusted figure that strips out one-off
items--decreased 14.5% to 774 pence.
British Land added that it is financially resilient with GBP1.3 billion
of undrawn facilities and cash, low debt and significant headroom on its
covenants.
In Spain, food aid queues grow as poverty outpaces 2008 crisis
Issued on: 27/05/2020 - 11:38
Accepting food handouts for the first time has become reality for
thousands in Spain where poverty has soared during the epidemic, echoing the
2008 crisis from which many have barely recovered.
Jacqueline Alvarez, 42, is picking up basic foodstuffs in the
working-class neighbourhood of Aluche.
"I cover my face because I feel really ashamed because I've never
had to ask (for food) before in my life," she admits.
Behind her, a queue of nearly 700 people snakes around the buildings,
all waiting to receive something to help feed their families from an emergency
food bank based in the neighbourhood association.
And such images are popping up increasingly across Spain where food aid
handouts have leapt by 40 percent during the lockdown, the Spanish Association
of Food Banks (FESBAL) says.
For many people, it is the first time they've had to seek help, like
Alvarez who has three children and says neither she nor her husband have had
any money coming in for the past two months.
"My husband is a waiter and he has been furloughed but we still
haven't received anything," says Alvarez, who is of Honduran origin.
"I work as a domestic help but my employers haven't declared
me," -- meaning she can't claim benefits.
The problem is global, with Oxfam saying the economic crisis caused by
the pandemic could push 500 million people into poverty.
In Spain, the lockdown has hammered an economy with one of the highest
rates of unemployment in the eurozone, second only to Greece.
- Worse than 2008? -
"This situation has impacted, first and foremost, people who were
already vulnerable before the pandemic," acknowledged Spain's Socialist
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, "those who had not managed to recover from
the effects of the crisis in 2008."
As the economic crisis took hold, unemployment soared past 26 percent in
2013 before dropping to around 14 percent last year. This year, it is expected
to hit 19 percent.
More
Finally, as that
Atlantic hurricane season gets underway, NOAA predicts a busy season. With the
Covid-19 pandemic still active, this is an ominous prediction for the summer
ahead.
NOAA Predicts ‘Busy’ Atlantic Hurricane Season for Fifth Year in a Row
Disaster responses are also likely to be complicated by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, according to FEMA and the Red Cross
By Alex Fox smithsonianmag.com May
26, 2020 9:00AM
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center announced in a statement that they expect this year's Atlantic hurricane season will produce more storms than usual. That could mean as many as 19 named storms and as many as six major hurricanes at a time when the United States is already reeling from COVID-19, report John Schwartz and Christopher Flavelle for the New York Times. (For reference, an average season yields 12 named storms and six hurricanes, with three becoming major hurricanes.)
If 2020’s Atlantic hurricane season turns out to be unusually active, it would be the fifth year in a row with above average storm activity, reports Andrew Freedman for the Washington Post. The chances of the season turning mild sit at just 10 percent.
Should any storms make landfall in the United States, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic will likely stymie the federal response. Carlos J. Castillo, acting deputy administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), indicated on a call with reporters that the pandemic could make responding to hurricanes more challenging, reports the Times.
A document issued last week says FEMA will “minimize the number of personnel deploying to disaster-impacted areas” during hurricane season.
The statement tells state and local governments to prepare by “supporting health and medical systems that are already stressed, with an expectation that those emergency services will continue to be taxed into hurricane season,” according to the Times.
Hurricane
shelters will present a particular challenge. Typically, local gymnasiums,
church basements and other venues have been used as "congregate
shelters" that cover nearly all available floor space with rows of cots to
accommodate as many people as possible, reports the Times. This
strategy does not dovetail with social distancing and could create hotbeds of
disease.
More
“A good
politician is quite as unthinkable as an honest burglar.”
H. L.
Mencken.
Covid-19 Corner
Though
hopefully, we are passing/have passed the peak of new cases, at least of the
first SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this section will continue until it becomes
unneeded.
South Korea coronavirus cases jump to highest since early April as warehouse outbreak widens
May 28, 2020 /
2:30 AM
SEOUL
(Reuters) - South Korea reported 79 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, the most
since April 5 and the third straight day of rising infections, raising the spectre
of a second wave of disease in a country widely praised for containing the
initial outbreak.
Health Minister Park Neung-hoo said at least 69 cases so far this week
have been linked to a cluster of infections at a logistics facility operated by
Coupang Corp, one of the country’s largest online shopping firms, in Bucheon,
west of Seoul.
According to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
(KCDC), the new cases brought the country’s total as of midnight on Wednesday
to 11,344 with 269 deaths. South Korea’s robust programme of testing earlier
this year was credited with helping the number of deaths comparatively low in a
global pandemic that has now killed more than 350,00.
The warehouse cluster appears linked to an outbreak that emerged in
several Seoul nightclubs and bars in early May, the KCDC said, and comes as the
country seeks to ease social distancing rules, reopen schools, and keep new
virus infections in check.
Unlike many countries, South Korea didn’t impose a strict lockdown to
counter the new coronavirus, but officials said if new cases keep rising, they
may consider issuing new guidelines.
More
Chinese scientists find new evidence that Huanan seafood market in Wuhan may not be the origin of the coronavirus
Source:Global
Times Published: 2020/5/26 22:33:40
Chinese
scientists have discovered a novel coronavirus clade that is different from
that shared among patients connected to the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan,
which provides new evidence that the market may not be the origin of the virus
that caused the deadly COVID-19 pandemic.
Chinese scientists collected viral genome samples from 326 patients in Shanghai between January 20 and February 25. They identified two major clades, both of which included cases diagnosed in early December 2019, according to a pre-review paper published online by Nature magazine on May 20.
They noticed that genomes of six patients with contact history related to the Huanan seafood market fell into one kind of clade while those of three other patients diagnosed in the same period but without exposure to the market clustered into the other clade, suggesting multiple origins of transmission in Shanghai, the paper said.
Two major lineages of the virus deriving from one common ancestor may have originated independently from Wuhan in December 2019 and contributed to the current pandemic, although no major difference in clinical manifestation or transmissibility was found between them, the paper explained.
The study was jointly conducted by research teams from the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center and the National Research Center for Translational Medicine.
The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases around the world had reached nearly 5.5 million as of 3:30 pm Tuesday.
The Huanan seafood market was previously deemed to be the origin of the novel coronavirus that caused the pandemic, but recent research indicates that the speculation may not be right.
The Huanan seafood market is more like a victim of COVID-19 rather than the origin of the novel coronavirus, Gao Fu, director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and member of the National Committee of the 13th Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, told the media on Monday.
Gao said he had gone to Wuhan to collect samples for COVID-19 researchers in early January, but no viruses were detected in the animal samples. Viruses were only found in environmental samples, including sewage.
Chinese scientists collected viral genome samples from 326 patients in Shanghai between January 20 and February 25. They identified two major clades, both of which included cases diagnosed in early December 2019, according to a pre-review paper published online by Nature magazine on May 20.
They noticed that genomes of six patients with contact history related to the Huanan seafood market fell into one kind of clade while those of three other patients diagnosed in the same period but without exposure to the market clustered into the other clade, suggesting multiple origins of transmission in Shanghai, the paper said.
Two major lineages of the virus deriving from one common ancestor may have originated independently from Wuhan in December 2019 and contributed to the current pandemic, although no major difference in clinical manifestation or transmissibility was found between them, the paper explained.
The study was jointly conducted by research teams from the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center and the National Research Center for Translational Medicine.
The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases around the world had reached nearly 5.5 million as of 3:30 pm Tuesday.
The Huanan seafood market was previously deemed to be the origin of the novel coronavirus that caused the pandemic, but recent research indicates that the speculation may not be right.
The Huanan seafood market is more like a victim of COVID-19 rather than the origin of the novel coronavirus, Gao Fu, director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and member of the National Committee of the 13th Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, told the media on Monday.
Gao said he had gone to Wuhan to collect samples for COVID-19 researchers in early January, but no viruses were detected in the animal samples. Viruses were only found in environmental samples, including sewage.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Belectric builds solar system for Dutch hybrid plant
The German firm is constructing a 38MW PV system for
Vattenfall's Haringvliet Zuid energy park
26 May 2020
German solar firm Belectric is constructing a solar power system for
Vattenfall’s first full hybrid power plant.
The Haringvliet Zuid energy park (pictured) will consist of a
22MW wind farm, a 12MW battery storage system and a large-scale photovoltaic
system.
The solar power system alone will cover an area of around 30 hectares,
with an installed capacity of 38MW.
The hybrid power plant, designed to generate and store renewable energy,
will be built on the island Goeree-Overflakke, around 30 kilometres southwest
of Rotterdam.
Construction has already begun on the large-scale photovoltaic system.
Belectric also plans to assume the operation and maintenance of the
solar power system for an initial period of two years.
Belectric solar and battery chief executive Ingo Alphéus said: “Our
customer’s hybrid power plant is a truly forward-thinking concept. The solar
farm complements the power generation profile of the wind farm, so that there
are significantly fewer peaks.
"These components are combined with a battery storage system to
produce a utility-scale green power plant – one which will play an important
role in stabilising the power grid.”
Belectric has constructed over 400 large-scale solar power plants around
the world, capable of generating a total of 3,000MW.
The company has also implemented battery storage systems and hybrid
systems that combine multiple technological components to create fully
autonomous plants.
"We
finished the year, and we reported that we had $17 billion of cash sitting at
the bank's parent company as a liquidity cushion. As the year has gone on, that
liquidity cushion has been virtually unchanged."
Alan Schwartz, CEO Bear Stearns, March 12, 2008.
Bust March 16, 2008.
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished April
DJIA: 24,346 +26 Down. NASDAQ: 8,890 +162 Up.
SP500: 2,912 +89 Down.
The NASDAQ has rebounded to
up. The S&P and the DJIA remain down.
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