Baltic Dry Index. 474 -40 Brent Crude 29.78
Spot Gold 1701
Coronavirus Cases 12/5/20
World 4,256,053
Deaths 287,336
"To turn $100 into $110 is
work. To turn $100 million into $110 million is inevitable."
Edgar Bronfman, Chairman,
Seagrams.
Don’t look now but
the Baltic Dry (shipping) Index is sinking again. Let’s pretend it isn’t and
buy more stocks. Look away from crude oil too.
Nor is that the
only bad news around for our delusional stock markets, busy front running the
day Washington’s Fedster’s start buying up stocks. After all, anywhere and
everywhere in the casino economy, central banksters are the only game in town.
They’ve become the ultimate “greater fool buyers.” After them, who?
But in the real
world, it’s far from business as usual, just the reverse. Decline in the
economy is widespread and still spreading.
While unemployment
is still rising albeit at, thankfully, a slowing rate, in large segments of the
employed economy, salaries and wages are being cut, hours reduced, rents deferred
or withheld, the food supply chains disrupted. And there is little to nothing
our failed central banksters and polarised politicians can do about it.
Until an effective
vaccine is developed and widely available, or effective anti-Sars-Cov-2 drugs
found, we are never getting back to business as usual 2019.
We are living
through The Great Disruption.
When the Roman
Legions left England and Wales, town and city life quickly failed, country
villa farming became unsustainable, luxury goods from Roman continental Europe
virtually unobtainable, money increasingly lost its usefulness.
A new order slowly
developed into what’s often called the dark ages. The standard of living didn’t
just fall for most, it collapsed!
We may not be
facing quite such a disastrous future, but to misquote the Duke of Wellington “it
may be a close run thing.”
Below, reasons not
to be reckless.
Exclusive: Toyota to cut North American output by 29% through October - source
May 11, 2020 /
2:37 PM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T)
plans to slash production in North America by nearly a third through October
due to the coronavirus crisis and expects it will take some time for output to
return to normal, a person familiar with the matter said.
Toyota will build about 800,000 vehicles, including its RAV4 SUV
crossovers and Camry sedans, at plants in the United States, Canada and Mexico
from April through to the end of October, the person told Reuters.
That’s down 29% from the Japanese automaker’s output in the same seven
months of 2019 and 32% lower than its forecast in January for production during
the period.
The source declined to be identified because the information is not
public.
A Toyota spokeswoman declined to comment on production plans.
The drop in Toyota’s production highlights the pain for carmakers around
the world due to the fallout from the virus. Besides weak demand, problems with
procurement and social distancing measures at plants are also expected to hit
output.
Analysts expect a slow and patchy recovery from the pandemic to curtail
spending while social distancing may also curb the need for some to commute,
dampening the need for new cars.
More
Italy March industry output plunges 28% month-on-month on coronavirus lockdown, steepest drop on record
May 11, 2020 /
9:11 AM
ROME,
May 11 (Reuters) - Italian industrial output plummeted 28.4% in March from the
previous month, more than expected and the steepest drop on record, as a
lockdown imposed to contain the coronavirus pandemic shuttered most businesses.
The fall in output was larger than any of the 18 forecasts in a Reuters
survey of analysts which pointed to a 20.0% decline.
National statistics bureau ISTAT, which issued the data on Monday, said
it was the steepest fall in industrial production since the current series
began in 1990.
February’s data was revised to show a 1.0% decline, originally reported
at -1.2%.
On a work-day adjusted year-on-year basis, output in March was down
29.3%, also the steepest drop since the start of the series, following a 2.3%
fall in February.
The restrictions to contain one of Europe’s worst outbreaks of the
coronavirus were in place through most of March and closed all factories except
those considered essential to the supply chain. They were partially eased from
May 4.
In the first quarter, output in the euro zone’s third largest economy
was down 8.4% compared with the previous three months, ISTAT said, following a
1.1% drop in the fourth quarter of last year.
---- The euro zone’s third-largest economy shrank 4.7% in the first quarter from the previous three months, preliminary data showed last week, as the lockdown took a heavy toll on activity.
The government forecasts gross domestic product to post a full-year
contraction of 8.0%.
Italian industrial output fell by around a quarter during a steep double
dip recession between 2008 and 2013, and has regained only a small part of that
during a modest recovery in the subsequent years.
Frozen fare cold comfort for fishing industry battered by coronavirus
May 11, 2020 /
7:11 AM
CAPE
COD, Massachusetts/LONDON (Reuters) - Frozen fish sticks and canned salmon have
made a comeback as the coronavirus crisis keeps people home, forcing a change
of tack for the fishing industry that usually turns to restaurants from Paris
to New York and Shanghai to serve their fresh seafood.
Fishing crews from Alaska in the United States to Zhejiang in China have
been battered by lockdowns that have shut fine dining halls and fancy hotels,
leaving customers to stock up from supermarkets rather than pick a platter from
a table menu.
Manhattan eateries that draw in the Wall Street crowd were a major
market for Jake Angelo’s razor clams, a delicacy dug from the mud along the
shores of Cope Cod, Massachusetts.
But prices have hit rock bottom and shut down a vital source of income
for the fisherman who has a boat named Ripped Tide.
Angelo said the whole seafood industry was on its backside, although he
used much saltier language to voice his anxiety.
---- Scientists say the $161 billion global industry’s travails could offer one bright spot: the downturn may give some depleted fish stocks a brief chance to recover, as they did in the World Wars, although at that time fish had years of relief not months.
Yet, for boat owners, seafood firms and others involved in the industry,
which produced 178 million tonnes of fish worldwide in 2019, the immediate
challenge is to survive until demand returns or to adapt swiftly to cater for
new tastes.
“There is no point going out to fish and then not be able to sell,” said
Bruno Margolle, president of the French fishing federation FEDOPA and co-owner
of a family trawler in Boulogne.
In France and Britain, fleets are trying to stagger landings to avoid
flooding the market and fewer boats are going to sea.
But crews that still head out fear their cramped quarters raise the risk
of infection if a co-worker carries the virus.
“Our major markets have collapsed and, of course, social distancing is
impossible on a fishing vessel,” said Harry Wick, chief executive of the
Northern Ireland Fish Producers’ Organisation.
Northern Ireland’s prawn catch is usually a hit in Spain, while its
crabs are popular in the world’s No. 1 seafood market, China. But with many
eateries around the globe closed or limited to offering a restrictive takeaway
service demand has plummeted.
---- The coronavirus crisis, meanwhile, posed a dilemma for Alaska’s Bristol Bay region, the most productive salmon ecosystem in North America, and its $300 million industry.
Residents feared the influx of people working to catch salmon, which can
double the region’s residents to 14,000 once the season get underway in June,
might overwhelm medical facilities in an area with just 16 hospital beds.
But instead of cancelling, Alaska’s Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy
has imposed safety measures, seeking to balance the risk to residents against
damage to a vital local industry.
If salmon numbers are not kept in check, they can deplete oxygen in
rivers, causing hypoxia, killing fish and other life.
More
Qantas pauses plane deliveries from Airbus, Boeing due to virus
May 11, 2020 /
3:29 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN.AX) said on Monday it
had advised Airbus SE (AIR.PA)
and Boeing Co (BA.N) that
it did not expect to take delivery of any new planes in the near term as it grapples
with a plunge in demand due to the coronavirus pandemic. The airline had expected to add three Boeing 787-9 jets to its fleet by the end of 2020 and to start taking delivery in August of the first of 18 Airbus A321neos due by 2022.
There is no longer a specific timeline for them to arrive because the market is too uncertain, a Qantas spokesman said, confirming a report on travel website Executive Traveller.
Many carriers around the world have grounded the bulk of their fleets and halted aircraft deliveries in response to the pandemic, leading Airbus and Boeing to cut production rates.
Qantas last week said it had shelved plans to order this year up to 12
A350s capable of the world’s longest commercial flights from Sydney to London.
It said it was reviewing its fleet with the expectation that most international
travel could take years to rebound.
More than 25,000 of the airline’s staff have been stood down until at
least the end of June as the carrier is flying only 5% of its pre-crisis
domestic passenger network and 1% of its pre-crisis international network.
More
Hyatt to lay off 1,300 employees as pandemic cripples travel
May 12, 2020 /
3:39 AM
(Reuters) - Hyatt Hotels Corp (H.N) said late Monday it
would lay off 1,300 people globally as it tries to cope with the coronavirus
crisis, which has virtually halted global travel by keeping people indoors. Hyatt said it had also cut pay for senior management, board members and all employees as part of a restructuring, adding that the staff who were being laid off would be eligible for receive severance pay.
“Due to the historic drop in travel demand and the expected slow pace of
recovery, Hyatt has made the extremely difficult decision to implement layoffs
and restructure roles across its global corporate functions, beginning June 1,
2020,” Hyatt said in a statement.
The hotel chain reported a wider-than-expected quarterly loss last week
and suspended its dividend and share buyback program. It had 55,000 employees
as of Dec. 31, 2019, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.
The hotel industry is estimating a loss of $1.4 billion in revenue every
week on account of the outbreak and a 30% drop in hotel occupancy over a year,
according to statements from the American Hotel and Lodging Association and the
U.S. Travel Association in March.
George Soros: Coronavirus endangers our civilisation
The billionaire investor and
philanthropist explains in an wide-ranging new interview how the Covid-19
pandemic puts everything about capitalism up for grabs, how Donald Trump is
destroying himself and how the recent German constitutional court ruling could
result in ‘the end of the European Union as we know it’
11
May 2020
GREGOR PETER SCHMITZ (INTERVIEWER): You have seen many crises. Is the
Covid-19 pandemic comparable to any previous one?
GEORGE SOROS: No. This is the crisis of my lifetime. Even before the
pandemic hit, I realised that we were in a revolutionary moment where what
would be impossible or even inconceivable in normal times had become not only
possible, but probably absolutely necessary. And then came Covid-19, which has
totally disrupted people’s lives and required very different behaviour. It is
an unprecedented event that probably has never occurred in this combination.
And it really endangers the survival of our civilisation.
Could this crisis have been prevented if governments had been better
prepared?
SOROS: We have had infectious disease pandemics ever since the bubonic
plague. They were quite frequent in the 19th century, and then we had the
Spanish flu at the end of the First World War, which actually occurred in three
waves, with the second wave being the deadliest. Millions of people died. And
we have had other serious outbreaks, such as the swine flu just a decade ago.
So it’s amazing how unprepared countries were for something like this.
---- Will this crisis change the nature of capitalism? Even before Covid-19 led to the current catastrophic recession, the downsides of globalisation and free trade were attracting greater attention.
SOROS: We will not go back to where we were when the pandemic started.
That is pretty certain. But that is the only thing that is certain. Everything
else is up for grabs. I do not think anybody knows how capitalism will evolve.
Could this crisis bring people – and nation states – closer together?
SOROS: In the long run, yes. At the present time, people are dominated
by fear. And fear very often makes people hurt themselves. That is true of
individuals as well as institutions, nations, and humanity itself.
More
"It doesn't matter if you're rich or poor, as long as
you've got money."
Joe E. Lewis
Covid-19 Corner
Though
hopefully, we are passing/have passed the peak of new cases, at least of the
first SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this section will continue until it becomes
unneeded.
Paris salons, Shanghai Disney reopen despite global alarm over second coronavirus wave
May 11, 2020 /
1:34 PM
BERLIN/PARIS
(Reuters) - Global alarm was sounded on Monday over a potential second wave of
coronavirus cases after Germany, relatively successful in slowing the outbreak,
reported that infections had accelerated again after the first tentative steps
to ease a lockdown.
But in the United States, which has by far the highest COVID-19 death
toll in the world, President Donald Trump accused Democrats of reopening states
too slowly, for political advantage, albeit without providing evidence.
News that the “reproduction rate” - the number of people each person
with the disease goes on to infect - had surged back to 1.1 in Germany cast a
shadow over the reopening of businesses ranging from Paris hair salons to
Shanghai Disneyland. A rate that stays above 1 means the virus is spreading
exponentially.
Fears that a second wave of infections could thwart the reopening of the
global economy helped send share prices lower across the world, and pushed
depressed oil prices down still further.
The past month has seen investors bet strongly on a rapid economic
recovery in spite of data far worse than any in living memory. That has opened
a rift between soaring stock markets and the freefalling economies they are
meant to reflect.
Trump, now running for re-election in November against the background of
a crippled economy, is pushing U.S. states for a rapid reopening, against the
recommendations of health experts to move more cautiously to avoid a resurgence
of the virus, which has killed more than 80,000 people in the United States.
Some of the hardest-hit states are led by Democratic governors, such as
Pennsylvania; the Republican president has encouraged reopening in those states
in defiance of their governors with tweets urging people to “liberate” them.
“The great people of Pennsylvania want their freedom now, and they are
fully aware of what that entails,” he tweeted on Monday. “The Democrats are
moving slowly, all over the USA, for political purposes.”
More
This frighteningly packed flight out of Newark has doctor saying he won’t fly again anytime soon
Published: May
10, 2020 at 5:34 p.m. ET
A San Francisco doctor returning from volunteering at a New York City
hospital to help fight the coronavirus says he was forced to endure a packed
flight on United Airlines — despite the carrier’s promise to enforce social
distancing.
Dr. Ethan Weiss, a University of California-San Francisco cardiologist,
shared a photo Saturday of nearly every seat full on the plane out of Newark
Airport in New Jersey.
“I guess United is relaxing their social distancing policy these days?
Every seat full on this 737,” Weiss wrote.
There were many passengers on board who were “scared” and “shocked” by
the airline’s lack of social distancing measures, he said.
“They could have avoided this by just communicating better,” Weiss wrote
of the airline. “They literally just sent an email 10 days ago telling all of
us the middle seats would be empty.”
Weiss said he was traveling with around 25 other nurses and doctors who
have been volunteering on the frontlines of Big Apple hospitals for the past
few weeks.
He noted that he previously praised the airline for flying medical
workers there for free, but said the nightmare return trip was the “last time
I’ll be flying again for a very long time.”
Just days before flying, he had told ABC7: “I’m scared of getting on the
airplane on Saturday. I’ve been taking care of COVID-19 patients for the last
two weeks, and I’m more scared of getting on the airplane on Saturday than I’m
walking into the hospital.”
Another physician returning home, Dr. Rebecca Palvin, also blasted the
airline for not doing more to protect travelers.
---- United UAL, +11.73% responded to the frontline workers’ complaints in a statement, saying it can no longer guarantee all customers will be booked next to an empty seat.
“Last month, we began limiting advanced seat selection for adjacent seats in all cabins, including middle seats where available and alternating window and aisle seats when seats are in pairs,” the company said in a statement to ABC7.
“Though we cannot guarantee that all customers will be seated next to an unoccupied seat, based on historically low travel demand and the implementation of our various social distancing measures that is the likely outcome.”
Germany Sees Fewer Cases; N.Z. to Ease Further: Virus Update
Bloomberg News
May 10, 2020, 11:00 PM GMT+1 Updated on May 11, 2020,
8:04 AM GMT+1
---- Global cases topped 4 million, though the situation improved in Europe, with Germany reporting the smallest number of new infections in six days. The U.K. outlined plans to ease a lockdown beginning Wednesday, and New Zealand said it will further relax restrictions this week.
South Korea is seeing a flare-up in cases tied to nightclubs in Seoul. Shanghai Disneyland reopened, in one of the largest tests of whether mass gatherings can take place safely.
----- China Car Sales Seen Falling as Much as 25% This Year (2:54 p.m. HK)
China’s vehicle sales may decrease by 25% this year if the global coronavirus epidemic continues to spread, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said at a briefing. Sales may drop 15% if the epidemic is effectively controlled.The China Passenger Car Association gave a more positive spin earlier Monday, saying government policies aimed at reviving demand are gaining traction. Car retail sales fell at a slower pace of 5.5% in April, following a 40% drop in March and a 79% plunge in February, PCA said.
Tokyo May Have Omitted 100 People From Virus Tally (2:42 p.m. HK)
Tokyo found that at least 100 coronavirus cases have been omitted from the total, Yomiuri newspaper reported, citing an unidentified official. The city is still recounting after multiple health centers found errors including omissions and double counting. Tokyo’s official tally was 4,868 as of Sunday.Denmark Cuts Distancing Requirement (2:40 p.m. HK)
Denmark has cut in half the physical distance at which citizens can stand apart, as the country takes a key step toward ending restrictions on movement. The social distancing requirement has been reset to 1 meter (3 feet) from 2 meters, according to a statement from the Danish Health Authority.Denmark is now in the second phase of a return to something resembling pre-Covid life, with all shops opening on Monday. Restaurants and cafes will follow next week while cinemas, museums and amusement parks will open in June.
Asahi Withdraws Forecast as Virus Hits Beer Demand (2:23 p.m. HK)
Asahi Group Holdings Ltd. withdrew its earnings outlook for the current fiscal year, hit by the impact of economic shutdowns due to the coronavirus in the Japanese beermaker’s overseas business and the domestic market. The Tokyo-based company said it has been hit by the shutdowns of restaurants and bars around the world, and that the uncertainty made it “difficult to quantify the business impact at this time.”Germany Reports Fewest New Cases in Six Days (1:44 p.m. HK)
Germany recorded the smallest number of new coronavirus infections in six days, as the country moves ahead with a broad easing of restrictions put in place to fight the disease.
There were 555 additional cases in the 24 hours through Monday morning,
the third straight decline and lifting the total to 171,879, according to data
from Johns Hopkins University. Fatalities rose by 20 to 7,569.
Chancellor Angela Merkel announced a widespread lifting of national
restrictions last week. Restaurants and shops are allowed to reopen, children
will be returning to school in stages before the summer vacation and
professional soccer matches will resume as soon as this weekend. Social-distancing
rules will stay in place until at least June 5.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Twisted graphene gets weirder at a "magic angle"
May 10, 2020
They don’t call graphene a “wonder
material” for nothing – it’s ultra-thin, ultra-strong, and has some weird
electrical properties. MIT researchers previously found a particularly strange
pattern emerged in “twisted” graphene structures, and now they’ve studied it
more closely and found it works better with more layers.
Graphene is made up of sheets of carbon that are just a single atom thick. That makes them functionally two-dimensional, since electrons moving through them can only move forward/backward and side-to-side, not above and below each other. That allows graphene to conduct electricity extremely well.
When graphene layers are stacked on top of each other, their electrical properties change. And in 2018, an MIT team discovered something incredible occurs when two of these layers were stacked slightly askew. By twisting the top layer to a “magic angle” of 1.1 degrees off-kilter, the double-layer structure could suddenly shift between being an electrical insulator and a superconductor.
In two new studies, the same team has now examined these twisted bilayer graphene structures even closer. In the first, the team tested the effects of different angles, using a scanning technique that was precise enough to measure angle differences down to 0.002 degrees.
The team found that the strange insulation and superconducting
properties were more pronounced when the range of angles stuck closer to 1.1
degrees. These effects seemed to weaken in stacks that had a wider range of
angles.
“This is the first time an entire device has been mapped out to see what
is the twist angle at a given region in the device,” says Pablo
Jarillo-Herrero, an author on the study. “And we see that you can have a little
bit of variation and still show superconductivity and other exotic physics, but
it can’t be too much. We now have characterized how much twist variation you
can have, and what is the degradation effect of having too much.”
In the second study, the researchers experimented with more layers. When
they stacked four layers of graphene and twisted them to the magic angle, the
structure became an insulator, just as the two layer version had. But this
time, the team was able to use an electric field to fine-tune the insulating
ability, which wasn’t possible previously.
This work is still in the very early stages, but the team says that eventually these twisted graphene systems could make for some unusual electronic devices.
The two papers were both published in the journal Nature.
Source: MIT
"Rarely have so many people been so
wrong about so much."
Richard M. Nixon.
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished April
DJIA: 24,346 +26 Down. NASDAQ: 8,890 +162 Up.
SP500: 2,912 +89 Down.
The NASDAQ has rebounded to
up. The S&P and the DJIA remain down.
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