Saturday, 16 May 2020

Special Update 16/05/2020 An Economic Catastrophe?


Baltic Dry Index. 407 +14  Brent Crude 32.50
Spot Gold 1744

Covid-19 cases 09/05/20 World 4,014,265
Deaths 276,236

Covid-19 cases 16/05/20 World 4,628,785
Deaths 308,651

All is change; all yields its place and goes.

Euripides.

We are on the cusp of an economic catastrophe, just don’t let on to the gamblers partying away in our global stock casinos.

The on again, off again nasty trade war between America and China is about to get red hot again, but yet again, don’t let on to anyone in the stock casinos.

Don’t tell any of the revelers either, that new Covid-19 cases just jumped 600,000 in a week.

A wave of US corporate and personal bankruptcies is about to sweep over the stock casinos this summer, with or without a new outbreak of Sars-Cov-2, although if a new outbreak starts due to reopening too soon, that catastrophe will likely turn into a global calamity.

Up first this weekend, America, China, and Europe fiddling while Rome burns.

U.S. moves to cut Huawei off from global chip suppliers as China eyes retaliation

May 15, 2020 / 11:34 AM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Trump administration on Friday moved to block global chip supplies to blacklisted telecoms equipment giant Huawei Technologies, spurring fears of Chinese retaliation and hammering shares of U.S. producers of chipmaking equipment.

A new rule, unveiled by the Commerce Department and first reported by Reuters, expands U.S. authority to require licenses for sales to Huawei of semiconductors made abroad with U.S. technology, vastly expanding its reach to halt exports to the world’s No. 2 smartphone maker.

“This action puts America first, American companies first, and American national security first,” a senior Commerce Department official told reporters in a telephone briefing on Friday.

Huawei, the world’s top telecoms equipment maker, did not respond to a request for comment.

News of the move against the firm hit European stocks as traders sold into the day’s gains, while shares of chip equipment makers such as Lam Research (LRCX.O) and KLA Corp (KLAC.O) closed down 6.4% and 4.8%, respectively, in U.S. trading.

The reaction from China was swift, with a report on Friday by China’s Global Times saying Beijing was ready to put U.S. companies on an “unreliable entity list,” as part of countermeasures in response to the new limits on Huawei.

The measures include launching investigations and imposing restrictions on U.S. companies such as Apple Inc (AAPL.O), Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO.O) and Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O), as well as suspending purchases of Boeing Co (BA.N) airplanes, the report said here citing a source.

The Commerce Department’s rule, effective Friday but with a 120-day grace period, also hits Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (2330.TW), the biggest contract chipmaker and key Huawei supplier, which announced plans to build a U.S.-based plant on Thursday.

TSMC said on Friday it is “following the U.S. export rule change closely” and working with outside counsel to “conduct legal analysis and ensure a comprehensive examination and interpretation of these rules.”
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Wave of COVID-19 bankruptcies poses next threat to US economy

John BIERS, AFP  May 14, 2020
New York (AFP) - Larger companies have generally survived the initial blow from the coronavirus crisis, but still face existential challenges to get through what will probably be a long and grinding recovery.

Since COVID-19 shuttered much of the global economy, airlines, major retail chains, oil companies and other hard-hit businesses have been able to tap bank facilities and public debt markets for the funds they need to keep paying the bills and stay afloat.

But many firms now bleeding cash are in for a tough ride until the economy fully rebounds, which likely will come only after a vaccine is developed and broadly employed.

That has raised worries about a much bigger wave of bankruptcies beyond the handful of retailers that have sought to restructure through the US process known as "Chapter 11."

The US Congress moved with remarkable speed to approve rescue measures for small businesses, large industries and workers, amounting to nearly $3 trillion.

But that infusion simply "bought time... it postponed" bankruptcies, David Kotok, cofounder of Cumberland Advisors, said of the massive federal push to support the economy.

Kotok -- who thinks it will take around five years for the US economy to fully recover -- expects casualties in other sectors, including travel, leisure, real estate, energy and "more that haven't surfaced yet," he told AFP this week.

Federal Reserve Chief Jay Powell warned Wednesday of a potential "wave of bankruptcies" that could cause lasting harm to the world's largest economy, and said more fiscal support may be needed to prevent the devastation, despite the massive cost.

Powell, who has launched a host of key programs to support credit markets and provide funds directly to companies, said there are limits to how far the Fed can go.

"We can make loans to solvent businesses," Powell said, but cautioned that "The passage of time is all that is needed for a liquidity problem to turn into a solvency problem."
More
https://news.yahoo.com/wave-covid-19-bankruptcies-poses-next-threat-us-012544535--finance.html

Germany plunges into recession as coronavirus hits - posts sharpest GDP contraction since global financial crisis

Shalini Nagarajan  May. 15, 2020, 02:51 PM
·  The German economy plunged into recession as the country's federal statistics authority released grim data showing a contraction of 2.2% on Friday.
·  The economy's decline reflects its biggest quarterly drop since the global financial crisis and its second largest fall since German unification.
·  Germany is the latest country in Europe to enter recession during the coronavirus pandemic. Recently, the UK posted a first-quarter contraction of 2.2%. France and Spain shrank by 5.8% and 5.2%, respectively. The eurozone economy fell by its "sharpest on record" at 3.8%.

Germany plunged into recession at the start of 2020, with Europe's biggest economy shrinking 2.2% in the first three months of the year, according to data released Friday by the German statistics authority.

"The corona pandemic hits the German economy hard. Although the spread of the coronavirus did not have a major effect on the economic performance in January and February, the impact of the pandemic is serious for the 1st quarter of 2020," Destatis, the country's data authority, said in its statement.

The German economy's decline reflects its biggest quarterly drop since the global financial and economic crash of 2009 and the second-largest decrease since German unification. 
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Fitch lowers outlook on France debt rating to negative

Issued on:
The international ratings agency Fitch on Friday lowered the outlook on France's sovereign debt from "stable" to "negative" in view of the anticipated deterioration in the country's public finances and economy this year because of the coronavirus pandemic.

But Fitch said in a statement that it was nevertheless maintaining France's long-term credit rating at "AA" for the time being.

"The revision of the outlook reflects the substantial worsening in public finances and economic activity expected this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic," Fitch said.

"The combination of much reduced economic activity due to containment measures introduced from March and government policies to support the economy in the period of enforced reduced activity will sharply increase government borrowing and indebtedness."

The deterioration of France's public finances comes at a time when its debt levels were already comparatively high and when it had made only "limited progress in fiscal consolidation since the global financial crisis" of 2008 and when real economic growth was only "moderate", the statement said.

Fitch now has two years during which it may possibly downgrade France's debt rating.

At the beginning of April, rival ratings agency S&P maintained France's credit rating at "AA" and the outlook at "stable".

UK manufacturers less confident about swift return to work - survey

May 15, 2020 / 12:11 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - British manufacturers think it will take longer to recover from the economic impact of COVID-19 than just a couple of weeks ago, according to an industry survey on Friday.

Three-quarters do not think business will be back to normal within six months, and 36% think it will take more than a year - twice the proportion two weeks ago, trade body Make UK said.

“It’s clear that it is going to be a long road back to anything like normal trading conditions and, despite the lockdown beginning to be lifted, there will be a significant impact on companies and jobs for some time to come,” Make UK’s chief executive, Stephen Phipson, said.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Sunday that workplaces such as factories and building sites that had not been told to close due to the coronavirus should resume operations where it was safe to do so.

Ford (F.N) said on Wednesday that it would restart production at two British engine factories on May 18.

---- Official figures on Wednesday showed factory output fell by 4.6% in March, and the economy as a whole shrank by an unprecedented 5.8% in what is likely to be a far bigger collapse in activity in the months when the lockdown is in full effect.

Make UK said almost 90% of manufacturers were operating to some extent but more than 83% had suffered a fall in orders. Some 22% said their order book had fallen by more than half.

The survey of 197 companies was carried out between May 4 and May 11.

On the coronavirus crisis front, some good news and some not so good news. But ready or not, more and more places are easing or lifting their lockdown restraints. Right or wrong we should know over the next month.

Antimicrobial surface coating kills coronavirus for 90 days: study

Issued on:
A specially formulated antimicrobial coating can keep surfaces clear of a human coronavirus for up to 90 days with just one application, a preliminary study said Friday, suggesting a new line of defense against COVID-19.

The paper by researchers at the University of Arizona (UA), which has not yet been peer-reviewed, found that the amount of virus on coated surfaces reduced by 90 percent in 10 minutes and by 99.9 percent in two hours.

Charles Gerba, a microbiologist at UA who was the study's senior author, told AFP the technology was "the next advancement in infection control."

"I think it's mostly important for high-use surfaces like subways and buses, because you could disinfect them but then the next people that come in there will recontaminate the surfaces," he said.

"It's not a substitute for regular cleaning and disinfecting, but it covers you in between regular disinfecting and cleaning."

The UA team tested a coating specifically designed to act against viruses that was developed by the company Allied BioScience, which also funded their study.

The researchers carried out their testing on human coronavirus 229E, which is similar in structure and genetics to SARS-CoV-2 but causes only mild cold symptoms and was therefore safer to use.

The coating works by "denaturing" the virus' proteins -- effectively twisting them out of shape -- and attacking its protective layer of fat.

The colorless substance is sprayed on surfaces, and has to be reapplied every three to four months.

The technology behind so-called self-disinfecting coatings has been around for almost a decade, and has previously been used in hospitals to fight against the spread of infection, including against antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

A 2019 paper by UA researchers found that coatings reduced hospital-acquired infections by 36 percent.
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Nearly 40% of low-income workers lost their jobs in March

By Tami Luhby, CNN Business Updated 1825 GMT (0225 HKT) May 14, 2020
New York (CNN Business)The Federal Reserve Bank on Thursday reported just how unequally the coronavirus-induced economic downturn is hitting Americans.

On one hand, lower-income people are getting slammed. Nearly 40% of those with a household income below $40,000 reported a job loss in March, according to the Economic Well-Being of US Households report.

At the same time, for the majority of adults, their income and ability to pay current bills appeared to remain generally stable during the initial weeks of the coronavirus pandemic. Also essentially unchanged was the percentage of people who reported they could pay off an unexpected $400 emergency expense entirely using cash, savings, or a credit card at the next statement.

The findings back up other reports that show that lower-income Americans, as well as black and Hispanic people, are bearing the brunt of the outbreak's financial fallout. They are more likely to work in sectors that are laying off or furloughing workers, such as food services. More than one in five Americans have filed initial jobless claims since the pandemic began.

From the start of March through early April 2020, 19% of adults said they lost a job, were furloughed or had their hours reduced, the Fed report found. More than one-third of these folks expected to have difficulty paying their bills in April.

Some 64% of adults who reported a job loss or reduction in hours expected to be able to pay all their bills in full in April, compared to 85% of those without an employment disruption.

But nine in 10 people who lost a job reported that their employer indicated that they would return to 
work, though their bosses did not say when that would occur.
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Why millions of Americans are losing health coverage during COVID-19 pandemic

Posted: May 14, 2020 4:00 AM ET
Millions of Americans have been hit with a double blow during this pandemic: they're out of work and without health insurance if they get sick.

Not only is the U.S. different from other developed nations by not providing universal coverage. It's also distinct in that most working-age people rely on their job to provide health insurance.

The way it usually works is people get an insurance package when they start a new job. In normal times, most Americans tell pollsters they like their plan.

These aren't normal times. 

Unemployment is skyrocketing, with a historic 10-percentage-point jump in one month. Thirty-six million people have applied for jobless benefits since mid-March, according to the latest release from the U.S. Department of Labour.

A new estimate from the non-profit Kaiser Family Foundation says nearly 27 million people will lose their health plan, and while most will qualify for a subsidized backup plan, nearly six million won't.

That follows similar findings from the Economic Policy Institute and Urban Institute that suggest at least seven million people will be left without coverage.

It's creating a medical crisis-within-a-crisis with the potential to shape the U.S. presidential campaign.

One of the country's best-known health-policy experts sees an alignment of conditions that could trigger a reform that has eluded U.S. politicians for generations: guaranteed health care for all citizens. 

"What [the pandemic] really does is force us to figure out how we're going to get to universal coverage," said Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, who not only served a senior role in the Obama White House but has been tapped for health-policy advice by President Donald Trump.

The U.S. medical system is really four systems that wind up covering most Americans: workplace plans; plans sold to individuals under the so-called Obamacare law; and two public programs, Medicare for seniors and Medicaid for low-income people.

Most people who lose a job are eligible for a backup health plan. But then they face a hodge-podge of regulations, and whether they qualify depends on the rules in their state, their income and the date they apply. 
More
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-health-insurance-woes-1.5567896 

China confirms unauthorised labs were told to destroy early coronavirus samples

·         National health authority says this was done for biosafety reasons and to ‘prevent secondary disasters caused by unidentified pathogens’
·         US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said Beijing declined to provide samples and destroyed them at the start of the outbreak
Zhuang Pinghui in Beijing  Published: 8:04pm, 15 May, 2020

China on Friday confirmed it had ordered unauthorised laboratories to destroy samples of
the new coronavirus  in the early stage of the outbreak, but said it was done for biosafety reasons.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has repeatedly said that Beijing declined to provide virus samples taken from patients when the contagion began in China late last year, and that Chinese authorities had destroyed early samples.

Liu Dengfeng, an official with the National Health Commission’s science and education department, said this was done at unauthorised labs to “prevent the risk to laboratory biological safety and prevent secondary disasters caused by unidentified pathogens”.

“The remarks made by some US officials were taken out of context and intended to confuse,” he said at a briefing in Beijing.

When the pneumonia-like illness was first reported in Wuhan, “national-level professional institutes” were working to identify the pathogen that was causing it, Liu said.

“Based on comprehensive research and expert opinion, we decided to temporarily manage the pathogen causing the pneumonia as Class II – highly pathogenic – and imposed biosafety requirements on sample collection, transport and experimental activities, as well as destroying the samples,” he said.

---- Tensions have escalated between Beijing and Washington as they trade accusations over the origin of the virus, which has killed more than 300,000 people worldwide, and China is under mounting international pressure to allow an inquiry into its handling of the pandemic.
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How official figures may hide true virus death toll

Issued on: 15/05/2020 - 11:30
The coronavirus has now taken 300,000 lives globally, according to official figures. But depending on the way deaths are counted, the real human cost could be far greater.

The official figures include only those deaths attributed to coronavirus, but experts are increasingly looking at data comparing this year's death rates with previous years -- regardless of the official cause.

This "excess deaths" metric raises the spectre of a much higher toll, as it includes fatalities indirectly related to the virus -- for example, people suffering from other illnesses who could not access treatment because of the strain the pandemic has placed on hospitals.

Throughout the crisis, methods of data compilation have differed widely between nations, making direct comparisons difficult.

In Italy, between February 20 and March 31, 12,428 people were recorded as having died of the coronavirus. But in the same period, authorities noted 25,354 "excess deaths" compared with the average of the five previous years.

For the United States, the difference is even more striking: according to data for March, before the country was hit by the worst of the pandemic, the number of excess deaths reached 6,000 -- more than triple the official COVID-19 toll.

Even in Germany, widely considered by experts to have handled the outbreak better than other EU countries, 3,706 deaths more than the average were noted in March, even as the official virus toll was 2,218.

In France, by contrast, for the period from March 1 to April 27, the COVID-19 toll of 23,291 is very close to the total number -- 24,116 -- of additional deaths compared with 2019.

- 'Indirect effects' -

Even without a standardised counting method, excess mortality data is the best indicator of how the virus has impacted different countries, said professor Yvonne Doyle, the medical director of Public Health England.

"This is a comparable measure internationally. So we would then be able to understand how we have been impacted internationally as well," she said.
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Next, without a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine, can Broadway ever reopen?

Many of the theaters are over 100 years old, and feature narrow aisles, seats arranged very close together and tiny bathrooms.”

I’m not sure why 100 years ago, theater designers arranged for the seats to be close together and tiny bathrooms? Were people smaller, thinner and more incontinent back then?

‘It’s a completely different world’: Tourists make up two-thirds of Broadway’s audience and theatergoers skew older

Published: May 15, 2020 at 8:02 a.m. ET
Theater fans won’t be able to give their regards to Broadway in person until September at the earliest. And certain factors could prevent New York City’s theaters from reopening for quite some time.

The Broadway League, the trade group that represents theater owners and producers, announced Tuesday that Broadway performances would be canceled through at least Sept. 6 because of the coronavirus outbreak. Theaters are offering exchanges and refunds for tickets purchased for performances through then.

The closure of Broadway, which began in March, has already led producers to pull the plug on some productions. Disney DIS, +2.90% said Thursday that it would close its Broadway musical production of “Frozen” because of the pandemic. Previously, producers said the curtain had fallen for good on the productions of two plays, “Hangmen” and “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?”

There’s a significant chance though that performance cancellations will be extended further, said Charlotte St. Martin, president of the Broadway League, because the arts and entertainment industry is in the fourth phase of New York state’s official reopening plan, which calls for gradually putting certain business sectors back online as long as the state meets certain metrics.

“We literally cannot reopen unless there is a confidence in the safety of the cast and crew and theatergoers,” St. Martin told MarketWatch. “So we don’t really know when that will be and that’s part of the challenge we’re facing.”

Guaranteeing the safety of audiences and theater professionals will be difficult given the limitations presented by the theaters themselves. Social distancing isn’t possible in most Broadway theaters, St. Martin said.

‘Social distancing just doesn’t allow a show to be viable financially.’

Many of the theaters are over 100 years old, and feature narrow aisles, seats arranged very close together and tiny bathrooms. Audience sizes would need to be reduced significantly to adhere to health experts’ guidelines to keep people six feet away from each other.

---- But even setting aside the troublesome logistics of reopening, there are other factors that will limit Broadway’s ability to bounce back from the coronavirus pandemic.

Tourists make up two-thirds of Broadway’s audience

During the 2018-2019 season, tourists from outside the New York metropolitan areas purchased 65% of the tickets sold for Broadway shows, according to data from the Broadway League. And nearly one in five Broadway audience members was visiting from abroad.

With such a large share of the audience for a Broadway show on any given day being made up of out-of-town visitors, Broadway’s ability to bounce back will very much depend on New York City’s tourism sector’s ability to return to full strength.

---- New York is highly dependent on Broadway reopening in order to thrive in a post-coronavirus world. In its last season, Broadway contributed $14.7 billion worth of economic impact to the Big Apple.

“That’s people who stay in the hotels and eat in the restaurant because they’re here to see a Broadway show,” St. Martin said.
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Finally, a glimpse into our future once we get either a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine, or effective and cheap anti-Sars-Cov-2/Covid-19 drugs.

Those readers looking to invest in that future might want to take a look at SRG Mining, whose Executive Chairman of the Board was kind enough to send me the link to the WB Report.

Mineral Production to Soar as Demand for Clean Energy Increases

May 11, 2020
WASHINGTON, May 11, 2020 — A new World Bank Group report finds that the production of minerals, such as graphite, lithium and cobalt, could increase by nearly 500% by 2050, to meet the growing demand for clean energy technologies. It estimates that over 3 billion tons of minerals and metals will be needed to deploy wind, solar and geothermal power, as well as energy storage, required for achieving a below 2°C future.

The report “Minerals for Climate Action: The Mineral Intensity of the Clean Energy Transition” also finds that even though clean energy technologies will require more minerals, the carbon footprint of their production—from extraction to end use—will account for only 6% of the greenhouse gas emissions generated by fossil fuel technologies. The report underscores the important role that recycling and reuse of minerals will play in meeting increasing mineral demand. It also notes that even if we scale up recycling rates for minerals like copper and aluminum by 100%, recycling and reuse would still not be enough to meet the demand for renewable energy technologies and energy storage.

In the current global context, COVID-19 is causing major disruptions to the mining industry across the world. In addition, developing countries that rely on minerals are missing out on essential fiscal revenues and, as their economies start to reopen, they will need to strengthen their commitment to climate-smart mining principles and mitigate any negative impacts. 

“COVID-19 could represent an additional risk to sustainable mining, making the commitment of governments and companies to climate-smart practices more important than ever before,” said Riccardo Puliti, World Bank Global Director for Energy and Extractive Industries and Regional Director for Infrastructure in Africa. “This new report builds on the World Bank’s long-standing expertise in supporting the clean energy transition and provides a data-driven tool for understanding how this shift will impact future mineral demand.”  

The report reveals that some minerals, like copper and molybdenum, will be used in a range of technologies, while others, such as graphite and lithium, may be needed for just one technology: battery storage. This means that any changes in clean energy technology deployments could have significant consequences on demand for certain minerals. 

The report is designed to help governments, especially resource-rich developing countries, the private sector and civil society organizations (CSOs), understand how the clean energy transition will impact future mineral demand. It is part of the joint World Bank-IFC Climate-Smart Mining initiative and builds upon the World Bank’s 2017 report “The Growing Role of Minerals and Metals for a Low-Carbon Future.” 
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Welcome to SRG Mining

SRG Mining Inc. – (TSXV.SRG) is a Canadian-based resource company with the goal of creating shareholder value by becoming a leader in the production and delivery of low-cost, quick-to-market, quality graphite.

SRG is focused on developing the Lola graphite deposit, which is located in the Republic of Guinea, West Africa. The Lola Graphite occurrence has a prospective surface outline of 3.22 km2 of continuous graphitic gneiss, one of the largest graphitic surface areas in the world.  SRG owns 100% of the Lola Graphite Project.

Management is also very optimistic about the nickel-cobalt-scandium deposit, known as the Gogota deposit, located on the same permit as the Lola graphite deposit. SRG will be resuming activities on the Gogota deposit and expects to file a National Instrument (“NI”) 43-101 compliant maiden mineral resource estimate in 2018.
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This weekend’s musical diversion.  Beethoven for once, and possibly his greatest piano concerto.  Performed here by a father and son combination.

For clarity, the father is the very gifted old geezer working hard on the ivories. His son is the conductor of the very large, noisy orchestra. Both race each other to see who can get to ending first. The result, a tie.

Will we ever be able to hold such meetings again? I wouldn’t like to try this with the orchestra and audience all sitting 6 feet apart. With such a large orchestra, the audience and orchestra might have to swap places.

Beethoven: Piano Concerto No. 5 "Emperor" Op. 73 - Daniele & Maurizio Pollini - Sinfónica de Galicia


There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things.

Machiavelli.

The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished April


DJIA: 24,346 +26 Down. NASDAQ: 8,890 +162 Up. SP500: 2,912 +89 Down. 

The NASDAQ has rebounded to up. The S&P and the DJIA remain down. But the game is now totally rigged by the Fed.

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