Baltic Dry Index. 1138
-03 Brent
Crude 62.57
Never ending Brexit
now October 31st, maybe.
Nuclear Trump
Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war
postponed to November, maybe.
USA v
Mexico tariffs 3 days away.
Truth is confirmed by inspection
and delay; falsehood by haste and uncertainty.
Tacitus
Today, it’s largely a
day of waiting. Will the Mexico – USA migration talks deliver enough to stop
President Trump imposing a 5 percent import tariff on Mexican exports from
Monday? Will later today’s US employment
figures back up the Fed’s Tuesday’s hint at a coming interest rate cut? Will President Trump back from Europe, tweet
again on China?
Given the short term uncertainty
it’s a good time to be safely in cash. In current conditions, the odds are more
certain in the world’s gambling casinos. In the longer term, the global economy
still seems to me to be slowing. Consumers in Asia and Europe cutting back on
consumption.
The question is, are they cutting back voluntarily or because they
have to? If the latter, is the next recession already underway?
Asia shares dazed by trade uncertainty, U.S. jobs risks
June 7, 2019 /
1:40 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) -
Asian share markets dithered on Friday as investors waited for concrete signs
of progress in the U.S.-Mexican trade standoff, while bracing for a U.S. jobs
report that could sway the course of interest rates there.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged 0.04%
higher and looked set for another cautious session being up just 0.6% for the
week so far.
Japan’s Nikkei firmed 0.3%, but South Korea slipped 0.5%. E-Mini futures
for the S&P 500 were mostly flat.
Mexican and U.S. officials had held a second day of talks on trade and
migration on Thursday amid reports President Donald Trump might delay the
imposition of tariffs that was due on Monday.
That had helped the Dow end Thursday up 0.71%, while the S&P 500
gained 0.61% and the Nasdaq 0.53%.
However, the White House later said the tariffs would go ahead as
scheduled, and there were reports Trump might declare a national emergency to
dodge any Senate objections.
The uncertainty kept investors from getting too bullish, particularly
with the U.S. payrolls report promising to be an unknown quantity later in the
session.
Market forecasts are for jobs to rise a solid 185,000 in May and
unemployment to stay at a low 3.6%, though much was in doubt after dismal data
on private hiring released earlier in the week.
“We haven’t adjusted our projection of 185,000 for overall nonfarm
payrolls in May,” said Kevin Cummins, senior U.S. economist at RBS.
“However, any major surprises in May payrolls seem tilted to the low
side of our forecast, which wouldn’t be too surprising given the rising
uncertainty in the outlook in the U.S. and the above-trend gain registered in
April.”
Oddly, a weak number might actually prove positive for equities since it
would bolster the case for an early rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
More
Pence Warns Mexico Tariffs Are Coming With More Talks Set Friday
By Margaret Talev, Jennifer Jacobs, and Eric Martin
6 June 2019, 19:33 BST Updated on 7 June 2019, 05:05 BST
·
·
Mexico offers to send 6,000 troops to its
southern border
Negotiations wrapped up on Thursday evening without an agreement,
Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said, adding that another round of
discussions would take place on Friday in Washington to head off the tariffs.
More
Trump threatens China with tariffs on further $300 billion of goods
June 6, 2019 /
8:43 AM
SHANNON,
Ireland/BEIJING (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to hit China
with tariffs on “at least” another $300 billion (£236.5 billion) worth of
Chinese goods but said he thought both China and Mexico wanted to make deals in
their trade disputes with the United States.
Tensions between the world’s two largest economies have risen sharply
since talks aimed at ending a festering trade war broke down in early May.
While Trump said on Thursday that talks with China were ongoing, no
face-to-face meetings have been held since May 10, the day he sharply increased
tariffs on a $200 billion (£157.9 billion) list of Chinese goods to 25%,
prompting Beijing to retaliate.
“Our talks with China, a lot of interesting things are happening. We’ll
see what happens... I could go up another at least $300 billion and I’ll do
that at the right time,” Trump told reporters, without specifying which goods
could be impacted.
“But I think China wants to make a deal and I think Mexico wants to make
a deal badly,” said Trump before boarding Air Force One at the Irish airport of
Shannon on his way to France for D-Day commemorations.
In Beijing, China’s Commerce Ministry struck a defiant tone.
“If the United States wilfully decides to escalate tensions, we’ll fight
to the end,” ministry spokesman Gao Feng told a regular news briefing.
“China does not want to fight a trade war, but also is not afraid of
one. If the United States wilfully decides to escalate trade tensions, we’ll
adopt necessary countermeasures and resolutely safeguard the interests of China
and its people.”
More
Trump to make China tariffs decision 'right after G20'
June 6, 2019 /
3:32 PM
CAEN, France (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he
would make a decision about whether to impose a further series of tariffs on
Chinese goods after meeting his Chinese counterpart at the G-20 meeting in
Japan later this month.
Trump earlier threatened to hit China with tariffs on “at least” another
$300 billion (236.33 billion pounds) worth of goods, but said he thought both
China and Mexico wanted to make deals in their trade disputes with the United
States.
“I will make that decision I would say over the next few weeks, probably
right after the G20,” Trump said ahead of talks with French President Emmanuel
Macron in Normandy, where they attended a ceremony for the 75th anniversary of
D-Day.
“One way or another I’ll make that decision after the G20. I’ll be
meeting with President Xi (Jinping) and we will see what happens,” Trump said.
More
Strong U.S. jobs growth expected in May, trade tensions a threat
June 7, 2019 /
5:16 AM
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - U.S. job growth likely increased solidly in May, with wage gains
expected to pick up, showing strength in the labor market before an escalation
in trade tensions that analysts have cautioned could pressure an already
slowing economy.
With the trade war drums beating loudly in the background, a strong
employment report from the Labor Department on Friday will probably do little
to dial back market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest
rates this year. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Tuesday the central bank
was closely monitoring the implications of the trade tensions on the economy
and would “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”
President Donald Trump in early May slapped additional tariffs of up to
25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods, which prompted retaliation by Beijing.
Last week, Trump said he would impose a tariff on all goods from Mexico in a
bid to stem the tide of migrants across the U.S.-Mexican border.
Talks are ongoing to prevent the duties from kicking in at 5% on June
10.
Nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 185,000 jobs last month after
surging 263,000 in April, according to a Reuters survey of economists. That
would be well above the roughly 100,000 needed per month to keep up with growth
in the working-age population.
“The trade wars the United States finds itself ensnared in are going to
cause hiring to slow as business sentiment eases, productivity-enhancing
capital expenditures fall off, and the damage eventually spills over into the
consumer sector,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US in New York.
Manufacturing payrolls will be watched closely for signs of the impact
of the tariffs on the economy. Factory output has been weak and sentiment
dropped to a 31-month low in May, with manufacturers worried mostly about the
trade tensions.
But May’s job growth could disappoint after a report on Wednesday from
payrolls processing firm ADP showed the smallest gain in private payrolls in
nine years last month. Another report this week showed a drop in online adverts
by businesses looking for help.
More
Markets are constantly in a state
of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and
betting on the unexpected.
George Soros
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, the rest of the world moves on from all the Trump trade wars.
As allies remember D-Day, Putin and Xi look ahead to an alliance for the 21st century
Adam Taylor, The Washington Post
This week, Western allies are gathering in Britain and France to
commemorate the largest seaborne invasion in history. But far from the English
Channel, another significant gathering is taking place that aims to cement a
new alliance for this century.
Leaders from countries including the United States, Britain and France
met Wednesday in Portsmouth, England, on the 75th anniversary of the D-Day
landings, the Allied invasion of Normandy during World War II. On Thursday,
those leaders headed to Normandy to commemorate the assault on Nazi-occupied
France in June 1944.
Representatives of the countries that formed that World War II alliance
were slated to be in attendance, as well as envoys from Germany.
The leaders of Russia and China, two countries that made their own
sacrifices to the Allied war effort, will not be present, however. They are
meeting on their own, beyond the eastern edge of Europe.
Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping
to Moscow on Wednesday for the start of his three-day visit to Russia. An event
on Wednesday marked the 70 years of diplomatic relations between Moscow and
Beijing, and both sides claim the relationship is better than ever. Putin
"is my best and bosom friend," Xi told Russian state news agency Tass
ahead of his visit.
The two international gatherings stand in stark contrast: old and new,
East and West, democratic and autocratic. But these differences weren't always
so obvious. The Russian president first attended D-Day ceremonies in 2004.
Although Moscow was not directly involved in the invasion, Soviet soldiers
played the most significant role in defeating Nazi Germany, on the Eastern Front,
and paid a deadly cost for it.
Putin's later presence at D-Day commemorations in 2014 was tense and
came amid attempts by world leaders to isolate Moscow after its annexation of
Crimea. The Russian leader was not invited this year: The French said this was
because heads of government, rather than heads of state, were invited.
Meanwhile, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry this week
dismissed the importance of D-Day, describing the Normandy landings as
"not a game-changer."
So the Kremlin organized its own bilateral summit. And the awkward guest
in Normandy this year is not Putin, but President Donald Trump.
If the D-Day ceremonies celebrate the past glories of one historical
alliance, Putin and Xi may be hoping to emphasize a new one. Xi said this week
that Putin is his closest foreign colleague.
According to the Kremlin, the two
have met 29 times since 2013.
This is something of a change for both nations, which were at
loggerheads for much of the 20th century after diverging interpretations of
communism caused China and the Soviet Union to cut diplomatic ties.
They are neighbors, sharing borders and regional interests in Asia, and
they both have made turns away from 20th-century communism to contemporary
authoritarianism.
But most importantly, they find themselves increasingly at odds with the
United States. Russia and China are simultaneously mired in economic conflicts
with America. Moscow is facing down a barrage of sanctions from Washington,
while Beijing is in the midst of an economically damaging trade war.
"If America assumes that Russia and China are a threat and decides
to confront the two countries at the same time, then a temporary alliance
between them becomes inevitable," Bruno Maçães, a Beijing-based analyst
and author, wrote for the Moscow Times.
Putin and Xi present themselves as champions of free trade and opponents
of protectionism, and both believe their export-driven economies are under
threat. In Russia, the Chinese president will be the guest of honor at an
international economic forum in St. Petersburg - a meeting the U.S. ambassador
is boycotting over the detention of an American investment banker.
The two sides signed an agreement that pledges to move away from the
U.S. dollar using trade with the ruble and the yuan, and to move to allow
Chinese telecom giant Huawei to develop a 5G network in Russia - despite U.S.
warnings that the company's products present a security threat.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
A rose inspires smart way to collect and purify water
Date:
May 29, 2019
Source:
University of Texas at Austin
Summary:
A new device for collecting and purifying water was inspired by a rose and,
while more engineered than enchanted, is a dramatic improvement on current
methods. Each flower-like structure costs less than 2 cents and can produce
more than half a gallon of water per hour per square meter.
A team led by associate professor Donglei (Emma) Fan in the Cockrell
School of Engineering's Walker Department of Mechanical Engineering developed a
new approach to solar steaming for water production -- a technique that uses
energy from sunlight to separate salt and other impurities from water through
evaporation.
In a paper published in the most recent issue of the journal Advanced
Materials, the authors outline how an origami rose provided the inspiration
for developing a new kind of solar-steaming system made from layered, black
paper sheets shaped into petals. Attached to a stem-like tube that collects
untreated water from any water source, the 3D rose shape makes it easier for
the structure to collect and retain more liquid.
Current solar-steaming technologies are usually expensive, bulky and
produce limited results. The team's method uses inexpensive materials that are
portable and lightweight. Oh, and it also looks just like a black-petaled rose
in a glass jar.
Those in the know would more accurately describe it as a portable
low-pressure controlled solar-steaming-collection "unisystem." But
its resemblance to a flower is no coincidence.
"We were searching for more efficient ways to apply the
solar-steaming technique for water production by using black filtered paper
coated with a special type of polymer, known as polypyrrole," Fan said.
Polypyrrole is a material known for its photothermal properties, meaning
it's particularly good at converting solar light into thermal heat.
Fan and her team experimented with a number of different ways to shape
the paper to see what was best for achieving optimal water retention levels.
They began by placing single, round layers of the coated paper flat on the
ground under direct sunlight. The single sheets showed promise as water
collectors but not in sufficient amounts. After toying with a few other shapes,
Fan was inspired by a book she read in high school. Although not about roses
per se, "The Black Tulip" by Alexandre Dumas gave her the idea to try
using a flower-like shape, and she discovered the rose to be ideal. Its
structure allowed more direct sunlight to hit the photothermic material -- with
more internal reflections -- than other floral shapes and also provided
enlarged surface area for water vapor to dissipate from the material.
---- The device removes any contamination from heavy metals and bacteria, and it removes salt from seawater, producing clean water that meets drinking standard requirements set by the World Health Organization.
"Our rational design and low-cost fabrication of 3D origami photothermal
materials represents a first-of-its-kind portable low-pressure
solar-steaming-collection system," Li said. "This could inspire new
paradigms of solar-steaming technologies in clean water production for
individuals and homes."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/05/190529145144.htm
Another weekend and an uncertain weekend at that. Will
President Trump U-turn on imposing 5 percent tariffs on Mexican exports to the USA? Will
today’s US employment figures be enough to trigger an early Federal Reserve
interest rate cut? Will Monday’s USDA
corn crop report confirm or put an end to America’s very early weather market
in grains? With a G-20 meeting coming up at the end of the month in Japan, will
USA v China trade talks resume to give Presidents Trump and Xi a chance at
resolving the trade war?
At this point the answers seem likely to be no, no, maybe,
and no. Have a great weekend everyone.
All economic forecasts are
subject to considerable uncertainty. There is always a wide range of plausible
outcomes for important economic variables, including the federal funds rate.
Jerome Powell
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May
DJIA: 24,815 +49 Down. NASDAQ: 7,453 +71 Down.
SP500: 2,752 +46 Down.
The S&P has reversed again to down after only one month. What
happens next to stocks largely depends on whether President Trump goes through
with his insane attack on Mexico’s economy. The US and Mexican economies are so
inter-dependent, President Trump is proposing to attack a sizable section of
the US economy itself. Not just economic madness, MADNESS!
No comments:
Post a Comment