Monday, 24 June 2019

Trade War Chess. The Opening.


Baltic Dry Index. 1239 +45   Brent Crude 65.45

Never ending Brexit now October 31st, maybe. 
Nuclear Trump China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to November, maybe.

“The game of chess is not merely an idle amusement. Several very valuable qualities of the mind, useful in the course of human life, are to be acquired or strengthened by it… Life is a kind of Chess, in which we have often points to gain, and competitors or adversaries to contend with.”

Benjamin Franklin

This week it’s all about that coming two Presidents meeting in Osaka Japan at the G-20 meeting, and dressing up the markets for the coming end of quarter and end of half year.

One of three things can happen at that two Presidents meeting. They can reach an agreement to end the trade war. Unlikely. They reach no agreement at all, and the trade war intensifies. Unlikely.  They can declare that they had a great meeting, and that constructive further negotiations are to be held shortly, and that both sides will hold off further tariffs for now. Likely.

In reality, President Trump needs the trade war ended more than President Xi. President Xi isn’t facing re-election, and hasn’t made how the stock market is doing the yardstick of how to judge his success. That gives President Xi the luxury of playing a long game if he wants to. Just waiting out next year's election   and seeing who wins.

He probably won’t go for that option, preferring instead to bring Trump’s economic technology war to an end, probably before the end of this year. That means making some concessions and getting some concessions in return. Including releasing Canada’s Huawei prisoner.

All of which means both sides will be spinning all week long, before, during and after the two Presidents meeting. If the spinning goes badly wrong, a week of high volatility and whiplash will be the end result. If the spinning remains positive and reasonable, President Trump might just get a breakout to new highs for the end of the half year. Re-election Team Trump and the Trump Fed will be working flat out for that result.

Below, the opening gambits.

Asian stocks subdued, oil rises on U.S.-Iran tensions

June 24, 2019 / 2:17 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares were off to a cautious start on Monday as investors pinned their hopes on any signs of a thaw in Sino-U.S. trade negotiations while oil prices firmed on worries over heightened tensions between the United States and Iran.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.16% in early trade while Japan’s Nikkei ticked down 0.26%. 

Wall Street shares closed slightly lower on Friday after hitting a record high thanks to signals last week from the Federal Reserve that it would cut interest rates soon to bolster its economy from protracted trade conflicts.

The Chinese state-run Xinhua news agency said on Sunday China’s President Xi Jinping will attend the G20 summit in Japan this week, giving the first official confirmation of his attendance at a gathering where he is expected to meet U.S. President Donald Trump.

The news came after U.S. Vice President Mike Pence on Friday decided to call off a planned China speech, which also increased optimism on upcoming trade talks with Beijing. Pence had upset China with a fierce speech in October in which he laid out a litany of complaints ranging from state surveillance to human-rights abuses.

“Event-driven players are buying back stocks as U.S. and China at least appear to be talking to each other,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

Still, there remain doubts on whether the two sides could come to any meaningful agreement as the tensions have extended beyond tariffs, particularly after Washington put Huawei, the world’s biggest telecoms gear maker, on a blacklist that effectively bans U.S. firms from doing business with the company.

The U.S. Commerce Department said on Friday it was adding several Chinese companies and a government-owned institute involved in super computing with military applications to its national security “entity list” that bars them from buying U.S. parts and components without government approval.

In China, the Global Times newspaper said FedEx Corp is likely to be added to Beijing’s ‘unreliable entities list’.
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China says will not allow Hong Kong issue to be discussed at G20 summit

June 24, 2019 / 3:27 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Zhang Jun said on Monday that China will not allow the Group of 20 nations to discuss the Hong Kong issue at its summit this week.

Millions of people demonstrated on the streets of Hong Kong this month against a bill that would allow people to be extradited to the mainland to face trial in courts controlled by the Communist Party. 

It triggered the most violent protests in decades when police fired rubber bullets and tear gas to disperse the crowds. The extradition bill and police reaction to the protests drew international criticism from rights groups.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump will meet at the G20 summit in the Japanese city of Osaka this week amid heightened trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

“What I can tell you for sure is that G20 will not discuss the Hong Kong issue. We will not allow G20 to discuss the Hong Kong issue,” Zhang said, when asked whether Trump and Xi would discuss Hong Kong at the G20.

“Hong Kong is China’s special administrative region. Hong Kong matters are purely an internal affair due China. No foreign country has a right to interfere,” Zhang said.

“No matter at what venue, using any method, we will not permit any country or person to interfere in China’s internal affairs.”

How the Trump-Xi trade meeting could set the stock-market tone for the summer

Published: June 23, 2019 9:16 p.m. ET
Stock-market bulls might find their summer riding on what happens when President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meet at the Group of 20 summit in Japan in the coming week.

Skeptics argue that investors, after spending May in a painful reassessment of the U.S.-China trade fight, have become complacent once again in the run-up to the gathering on expectations that the leaders will be eager to at least tone down tensions.

If the gathering disappoints, investors are likely in for a “rough July and August” as it finally becomes clear that the trade fight is likely to drag on far longer and than they had anticipated, said Sandy Villere, portfolio manager at New Orleans-based Villere & Co., in an interview.

Trump stoked expectations for the summit after tweeting on Tuesday about a “very good telephone conversation” with Xi and announcing plans for an “extended meeting” during the G-20 summit in Osaka, which begins June 28. That was credited with helping soothe fears over a protracted trade battle.

“We see Trump’s phone call to Xi as a small blink in the trade war,” said Allan von Mehren, chief analyst at Danske Bank, in a note. “It reveals that he is keen on meeting with Xi at the G-20, which China had not confirmed before the call. We now see a higher than 50% probability that the meeting will end with a cease-fire and resumption of trade talks.”

Stocks pulled back significantly in May after Trump accused China of backtracking on commitments made earlier in talks, raised existing tariffs on a range of goods and threatened to impose levies on the remainder of Chinese imports. The U.S. also moved to blacklist China’s Huawei Technologies Co. by restricting access to U.S. technology. Beijing has threatened retaliation. The impasse has stoked fears of a spiraling trade fight that could pose a significant danger to global growth and corporate earnings.

---- The Federal Reserve also did its part. Investors took the policy statement and remarks by Chairman Jerome Powell that followed the central bank’s policy meeting on Wednesday as a signal significant rate cuts are in the offing before the end of the year — a prospect that’s served to cheer stock-market bulls who appear confident the central bank’s efforts will ensure the expansion continues.

The rally in stocks this month suggests Fed rate cuts are already priced into the market, wrote UBS strategists Keith Parker and Stuart Kaiser, in a Friday note. That leaves the outlook for equities and other assets viewed as risky to be driven by expectations for economic growth, “with the G-20 potentially another key fulcrum.”

“Within equities, stocks that benefit most from lower rates (defensives, growth) are trading at a record 120% price-to-earnings premium to stocks hurt most by lower rates (financials, cyclicals),” Parker and Kaiser wrote. A neutral or positive outcome to the G-20 meeting could narrow that “extreme premium” somewhat, they said.
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China says both U.S., China should make compromises in trade talks

June 24, 2019 / 2:53 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - Both China and the United States should make compromises in trade talks, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said on Monday, ahead of a much anticipated meeting between the Chinese and U.S. presidents at this week’s G20 summit in Japan.

China and the United States last week said they were reviving talks ahead of the meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Hopes that it will lead to a de-escalation of a trade war that is damaging the global economy has cheered financial markets.

Talks to reach a broad deal broke down last month after U.S. officials accused China of backing away from previously agreed commitments.

Speaking at a news briefing on the G20 summit, Wang, who is also part of the trade negotiating team with the United States, said talks between the two countries’ trade teams were underway, though he gave no details.

China’s principles are clear, he said - mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit and meeting each other halfway.

“Mutual respect means each side must respect the other’s sovereignty,” Wang said.

“Equality and mutual benefit means the consultations have to happen on an equal basis, the agreement to be reached has to be beneficial for both sides,” he said.

“Meeting each other half way means both sides have to compromise and make concessions, not just one side.”

Wang declined to answer a question about what specific compromises Xi may offer to win a trade deal with Trump.

Both the Chinese and U.S. teams are making preparations for the Xi-Trump meeting, Assistant Foreign Minister Zhang Jun told the same briefing, again without offering details.

Wang said rising protectionism has dampened global trade and posed a threat to the global economy, while Chen Yulu, a vice governor of China’s central bank, warned that global economic and financial risks are rising significantly.

“Signs of reversing monetary policy in major developed countries are becoming more evident,” Chen told the same briefing.

“At the same time, policy room of many countries after the crisis has been reduced and room for coping with a sharp economic slowdown is limited.”
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“Chess is a war over the board. The object is to crush the opponent’s mind.”

Bobby Fischer

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, FedEx. Honest “errors,” or is the US “deep state” alphabet soup playing games? Will FedEx make China’s “unreliable foreign firms” blacklist?

FedEx, in another error, misses delivery of Huawei package to U.S.

June 23, 2019 / 6:19 AM
(Reuters) - FedEx Corp said on Sunday an operational error prevented a Huawei Technologies package from being delivered to the United States, just weeks after the U.S. delivery company said an error led to the Chinese firm’s packages being misdirected.

“The package in question was mistakenly returned to the shipper, and we apologise for this operational error,” FedEx told Reuters in an emailed statement. A company spokeswoman confirmed that the package was U.S. bound but declined to say what it contained.

China's Global Times newspaper said in a tweet bit.ly/2ZB6isY later that FedEx is likely to be added to China's 'unreliable entities list' due to the incident.

Amid a bruising trade dispute between Washington and Beijing, China threatened late in May to unveil an unprecedented hit-list of “unreliable” foreign firms, groups and individuals that harm the interests of Chinese companies.

Huawei, the world’s biggest telecoms gear maker, is at the centre of the U.S.-China trade dispute.

China’s commerce ministry and FedEx did not respond immediately to a request for comment on the likelihood of the company being added to the ‘unreliable’ list. Global Times is published by the ruling Communist Party’s People’s Daily.

China launched an investigation into FedEx earlier this month over Huawei parcels delivered to the wrong address, without giving details about the deliveries in question.

China’s state news agency Xinhua had said back then that the investigation into FedEx over misdirected mail should not be regarded as retaliation against the U.S. company, amid the trade spat.

The United States and China have been engaged in a trade dispute for months on issues such as tariffs, subsidies, technology, regulations and cyber security, among others, with Washington putting Huawei on a blacklist last month citing national security.

“FedEx can accept and transport all Huawei products except for any shipments to listed Huawei entities on the U.S. Entity List,” the company said on Sunday.
More

Huawei files lawsuit against U.S. Commerce Department over seized equipment: filing

June 21, 2019 / 10:39 PM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Huawei Technologies Co Inc filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Commerce Department on Friday challenging whether telecommunications equipment it sent from China to the United States, and then back to China, is covered by Export Administration Regulations, according to a court filing.

The lawsuit is the latest salvo in a battle between the U.S. government and Huawei. Washington says the Chinese company’s telecommunications gear could be used by Beijing to spy. Huawei denies that is the case. 

In the lawsuit, Huawei said that it shipped telecommunications equipment from China, including a computer server and Ethernet switch, to a testing laboratory in California. After the testing was done, the equipment was shipped back to China. No application for a license was made because none was needed, the lawsuit claims.

But the equipment was seized in Alaska by the U.S. government, and no decision has been made about whether a license is required to ship it, the filing said.

“The equipment, to the best of HT USA’s knowledge, remains in a bureaucratic limbo in an Alaskan warehouse,” Huawei said in its lawsuit.

The Commerce Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Huawei contends that the equipment did not require a license because it did not fall into a controlled category and because it was made outside the United States and was being returned to the same country from which it came.

Huawei asked for the equipment to be either released for shipment or for the Commerce Department to decide that it was shipped illegally.
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“Chess holds its master in its own bonds, shackling the mind and brain so that the inner freedom of the very strongest must suffer.”

Albert Einstein

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Millions with neurological diseases could find new option in neurostimulation devices

Date: June 20, 2019

Source: Purdue University

Summary: Researchers are using graphene to help people with neurological diseases who use implantable devices. 

The United States is seeing an increase in the number of neurological diseases. Stroke is ranked as the fifth leading cause of death, with Alzheimer's being ranked sixth. Another neurological disease -- Parkinson's -- affects nearly 1 million people in the U.S. each year.

Implantable neurostimulation devices are a common way to treat some of these diseases. One of the most commonly used elements in these devices is platinum microelectrodes -- but it is prone to corrosion, which can reduce the functional lifetime of the devices.

Purdue University researchers have come up with a solution to help -- they are adding a graphene monolayer to the devices to protect the microelectrodes. The research is published in the June 6 edition of 2D Materials.

"I know from my industry experience that the reliability of implantable devices is a critical issue for translating technology into clinics," said Hyowon "Hugh" Lee, an assistant professor in Purdue's College of Engineering and a researcher at the Birck Nanotechnology Center, who led the research team. "This is part of our research focusing on augmenting and improving implantable devices using nano and microscale technologies for more reliable and advanced treatments. We are the first ones that I know of to address the platinum corrosion issue in neurostimulation microelectrodes."

Lee said he learned about the advantage of using graphene from his colleague at Birck Nanotechnology Center, Zhihong Chen, who is an expert in graphene technology. The team has shown the graphene monolayer to be an effective diffusion barrier and electrical conductor.

"If you attempt to deliver more charge than the electrode can handle, it can corrode the electrode and damage the surrounding tissues," Lee said. He also thinks that microscale electrodes are going to play a key role in the future with more demand for precise and targeted neurostimulation therapy. "We think neurosurgeons, neurologists, and other scientists in neuroengineering field will be able to use this electrode technology to better help patients with implantable devices for restoring eyesight, movement, and other lost functionalities."
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“I don’t believe in psychology. I believe in good moves.”

 Bobby Fischer

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May

DJIA: 24,815 +49 Down. NASDAQ: 7,453 +71 Down. SP500: 2,752 +46 Down.  

The S&P has reversed again to down after only one month. Time for the Fed to step in again to buy stocks.

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