Baltic Dry Index. 1179
+44 Brent
Crude 62.62
Never ending Brexit
now October 31st, maybe.
Nuclear Trump
China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war
postponed to November, maybe.
Richard Wittington, an honest dreamer, travels to London “where the streets are paved with gold”. Fairy Bow Bells realises his destiny, and supplies him with an introduction to the leading London bitcoin gambler, Bernie Buymore, a 22 year old dropout from the London School of Economics, who’s fighting extradition to America over an unintended flash crash in shady Chicago.
A Panto for modern times. With apologies to Richard Gauntlett
author of pantomime scripts.
Faced with news
stories of President Trump looking to demote Federal Reserve Chairman Powell
back to a mere board member and replace him with a new chairman, Chairman
Powell and the rest caved in on interest rate cuts and all but promised a cut
in July. The Fed’s second cave in in less than 6 months following their Christmas
Eve cave in back in December.
With a now politicised
Fed at the helm of the world’s leading global trade currency, our world is entering
a new phase of the Great Nixonian Error of fiat currency. Under the erratic President
Trump, I suspect we will not wait long for the next shoe to fall. I suspect
that long term gold will be the eventual ultimate winner. Our world has reached
one of those global tipping points, like Bretton Woods, or August 15, 1971.
Below, now we all set
out on a new monetary misadventure. What could possibly go wrong?
Stocks rally, bond yields plunge as Fed fuels rate cut hopes
June 20, 2019 /
2:04 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
A gauge of global stock markets rose on Thursday while the dollar dropped and
global bond yields plunged, with the 10-year U.S. yield falling below two
percent, after the Federal Reserve signalled possible interest rate cuts later
this year.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.6%
while Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.6%.
The MSCI ACWI, which incorporates readings of 49 equity markets across
the world, gained 0.3% on Thursday. It has recovered a large part of its 6.7%
losses made after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on all of
China’s imports last month.
Signs that China and the United States are returning to the negotiating
table after a six-week hiatus also bolstered risk sentiment.
The rally in stocks comes as a host of Asian central banks are scheduled
to hold policy meetings later in the day, with most expected to flag moves
toward looser monetary settings.
The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady on Thursday, preferring to
save its dwindling ammunition, but speculation is rising it may further loosen
its ultra-easy stance later this year.
“As the Fed’s policy is turning, central banks in many other countries
will face pressure, including those from markets, to ease their policy,” said Hiroshi
Yokotani, portfolio strategist at State Street Global Advisors.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 gained 0.3% to 2,926, just 19 points off
its record closing high hit on April 30.
The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday signalled interest rate cuts beginning
as early as July, saying it is ready to battle growing global and domestic
economic risks as it took stock of rising trade tensions and growing concerns
about weak inflation.
The bulk of Fed policymakers slashed their rate outlook for the rest of
the year by roughly half a percentage point, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell
said others agree the case for lower rates is building.
More
Asian markets rise as Fed leaves itself wiggle room, hopes for trade talks rekindled
By Marketwatch
and Associated
Press Published: June 19, 2019 11:29 p.m. ET
Asian markets gained in early trading Thursday, after the
U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but indicated it is ready to
make ease monetary policy if needed.The Fed said it will “closely monitor” the economy given increasing uncertainty about government policy, though it signaled it may not need to lower rates before 2020. But Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is prepared to cut interest rates if necessary.
There was also encouraging news on the trade front, as U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said he plans to meet his Chinese counterpart ahead of the G-20 summit next week. “When actual negotiations begin again, I can’t say at this point,” Lighthizer said. “We’re talking. We’re going to meet.” The U.S. and China broke off trade negotiations in early May and have not met since.
More
U.S. Yield Falls Past 2%, Gold Hits Five-Year High: Markets Wrap
By Adam Haigh
Updated on 20 June 2019, 04:11 BST
·
·
S&P 500 rose 0.3%, short-end Treasuries
climbed; oil gains
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 2% to its lowest since November 2016 and two-year rates continued to fall. Stocks surged in China, saw modest gains in Tokyo and Hong Kong, and were little changed in South Korea. U.S. futures rose. Earlier, the S&P 500 Index edged higher as the Fed indicated an increased readiness to cut interest rates. The yen maintained gains after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged.
More
Trump Moves From Trade War Toward Currency War
19 June 2019, 07:48 BST
President’s ECB
tweets mark rare intervention by a U.S. leader
He’s backed off ‘strong dollar’ policy of his
predecessors
President Donald Trump has already given the global economy trade wars.
Now there are signs he may be gearing up for a currency war, too.
It was not the first time Trump has blamed currency manipulation overseas for a strong dollar that raises the cost of U.S. exports. He has already become unique among recent American presidents in a shift away from the “strong dollar’’ policy of his predecessors.
More
Trade disputes to dominate as ASEAN meets in Bangkok
Date created :
Southeast Asian leaders will dissect the impact of the US-China tariff
war this weekend at a Bangkok summit, with Beijing determined to drive forward
a trade pact sweeping in 40 percent of global commerce -- but excluding
America.
Disputes in the flashpoint South China Sea and Myanmar's treatment of
Rohingya Muslims are also likely to make the agenda at the two-day Association
of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting starting Saturday in the Thai
capital.
But commerce will dominate, with the trade war between the world's two
biggest economies pushing some major manufacturers to flee China to Southeast
Asia and casting doubts over the future of free trade.
US President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese
goods, from sneakers and socks to washing machines and furniture, prompting
Beijing to hit back with levies on $60 billion of American imports.
"One of the biggest beneficiaries is ASEAN," said Drew
Thompson, a research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in
Singapore, in reference to the gains Asia's low-cost manufacturing nations
stand to make from trade tensions between China and the United States.
Firms including Brooks Running Company and washing machine maker Haier
have already started migrating from China, seeking friendlier, lower-tariff
markets in Vietnam, Thailand or Indonesia.
With the spat grinding on, Beijing is intensifying its drive to sign a
massive trade pact that sweeps in Southeast Asia.
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) includes all 10
ASEAN economies, plus India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
It links about half the world's population
and is seen as a way for China to draft the architecture of Asian-Pacific
trade, following a US retreat from the region.
More
In other US news, the Fed’s interest rate relief may
already be too late. While consumer debt isn’t a problem now, it fast becomes
one in any downturn and one seems to be approaching fast.
U.S. consumer debt is now breaching levels last reached during the 2008 financial crisis
By Mark
DeCambre Published: June 19, 2019 4:45 p.m. ET
U.S. consumer debt hit $14 trillion in the first quarter of 2019
Consumer debt is growing to worrisome levels.
Ben Mohr, senior research analyst of fixed income at investment
consultant Marquette Associates, calculated that total U.S. consumer debt hit
$14 trillion in the first quarter of 2019, surpassing the roughly $13 trillion
of leverage accumulated in credit cards, auto loans and mortgages and other
debt back in 2008, when those souring loans and securities pegged to them
helped to send global markets into a tailspin (see attached chart).
Mohr told MarketWatch that the increase in
student loans — often cited as a source of consternation for economists and
strategists — saw a notable increase. At the end of the first three months of
2019, student loan debt hit $1.486 trillion, according to credit data from the
New York Federal Reserve. By comparison, student loan at the height of the
financial crisis was $611 billion and has been mostly rising since, Mohr said.
“It has ballooned and that’s a dramatic increase,” the fixed-income analyst
said of the student-debt expansion.
Analyzing growing consumer leverage another way, Mohr said the ratio of debt compared against the U.S. population estimated at 327 million, according to U.S. Census Bureau data, translates to a record per-person debt ratio at $41.77, surpassing the ratio of $41.68 back in 2008.
Check out: The richest 10% of households now represent 70% of all U.S. wealth
Concerns about ballooning debt come as U.S. equity markets have been drifting toward records, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.15% and the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.30% within about 1.5% of all-time highs, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, -1.82% is hovering not far from its lowest levels in months at 2.09%.
Those market moves come against a backdrop of a Federal Reserve that is considering reducing borrowing costs for individuals and corporations from an already relatively benign range of 2.25%-2.50%.
More
“It is hard for us, without being flippant, to even
see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing one
dollar in any of those [CDS] transactions.”
Joseph J. Cassano, a former A.I.G. executive,
August 2007, on Credit Default Swaps that wiped out A.I.G in 2008.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, are Iran, Europe, and
America finally at the end of the peace road?
Iran will not give Europe more time to shield it against U.S. sanctions
June 19, 2019 /
8:57 AM
LONDON (Reuters) -
Iran said on Wednesday it will start enriching uranium at a higher level in
July and won’t give European powers any more time to prevent this move by
protecting Tehran from U.S. sanctions.
Iran stopped complying in May with some commitments in the 2015 nuclear deal
that was agreed with global powers, a year after the United States unilaterally
withdrew from the accord and re-introduced sanctions on Tehran.
Iran said in May it would start enriching uranium at a higher level,
unless world powers protected its economy from U.S. sanctions within 60 days.
The deadline is July 8.
The spokesman for Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Behrouz Kamalvandi,
was quoted as saying by Tasnim news agency on Wednesday as saying: “Iran’s
two-month deadline to remaining signatories of the JCPOA (nuclear deal) cannot
be extended, and the second phase will be implemented exactly as planned.”
On May 8, in the first phase of pulling out of some nuclear commitments,
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced a halt to Iran’s sales of enriched
uranium and heavy water to other countries.
The nuclear deal allows such sales so Iran can keep reducing its
stockpiles below maximum thresholds.
Iran said on Monday it would breach curbs on its stock of low-enriched
uranium in 10 days.
Britain, France and Germany plan a new push to keep Iran in the 2015
nuclear deal despite Tehran’s threat to violate one of its central limits, but
they may be nearing the end of the diplomatic road they embarked on more than
15 years ago.
Worries about a military confrontation between Iran and the United
States have mounted since attacks last week on two oil tankers near the Gulf.
Washington blamed long-time foe Iran for the incidents but Tehran denies
responsibility.
Pentagon announced on Monday deployment of about 1,000 more U.S. troops
to the Middle East, citing concerns about a threat from Iran.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
How Not To Prevent a Cyberwar With Russia
Author:
Andy Greenberg Andy Greenberg06.18.19
In the short span of years in which the threat of
cyberwar has loomed, no one has quite figured out how to prevent one. As
state-sponsored hackers find new ways to inflict
disruption and paralysis on one another, that arms race has proven far
easier to accelerate than to slow down. But security wonks tend to agree, at
least, that there's one way not to prevent a cyberwar: launching a
preemptive or disproportionate cyberattack on an opponent's civilian
infrastructure. As the Trump administration increasingly beats
its cyberwar drum, some former national security officials and analysts
warn that even threatening that sort of attack could do far more to escalate a
coming cyberwar than to deter it.Over the past weekend, The New York Times reported that US Cyber Command has penetrated more deeply than ever before into Russian electric utilities, planting malware potentially capable of disrupting the grid, perhaps as a retaliatory measure meant to deter further cyberattacks by the country's hackers. But judging by Russia's response, news of the grid-hacking campaign may have already had the immediate opposite effect: The Kremlin warned that the intrusions could escalate into a cyberwar between the two countries, even as it claimed that Russia's grid was immune from such threats.
President Trump, meanwhile, quickly denied the Times' report. But officials like White
House national security adviser John Bolton have for months hinted at a more
aggressive approach to cyber operations against US adversaries, "opening
the aperture, broadening the areas we’re prepared to act in,” as Bolton put it
in remarks at a Wall Street Journal conference last week. And
since 2017, Trump has been elevating Cyber
Command's authority and reversing Obama administration rules that required other
agencies' sign-off before it launched an offensive hacking operation.
But former White House cybersecurity officials caution against
that cyberwar hawkishness. "The idea that we can use cyber offense
capabilities to impose sabotage-like effects, and to do so in increasingly
large scale and costly ways until they get it through their head that they
can’t win, I don’t think that's going to work," says Tom Bossert, who served as
White House homeland security advisor and the president's most senior
cybersecurity-focused official until
April of last year. "I want to make sure we don’t end up in an
escalatory cyber exchange where we lose more than they do."
Bossert points out that in many respects the US economy and
infrastructure is far more reliant on digitization and automation than
Russia's, giving the Kremlin an inherent advantage in any future
no-holds-barred cyberwar. He paraphrases former secretary of defense Ash
Carter: "If you're doused in gasoline, don't start a match-throwing
contest."
Bossert didn't confirm or deny the facts of the Times' grid-hacking report, but criticized current Trump officials for not doing enough to deter cyberattacks from adversaries like Russia with other, more traditional means, such as diplomacy or economic incentives and punishments
---- Obama administration cybersecurity coordinator J. Michael Daniel echoed that warning, arguing that if Trump administration and Cyber Command are indeed taking a more offensive approach to penetrating Russia's grid, they're doing so without truly knowing the potential consequences. "This is uncharted territory in many ways. Are we setting ourselves up for a pre-World War I situation, where activities that are designed to deter instead prompt a response," says Daniel, now the president of the nonprofit Cyber Threat Alliance. "Are these activities so threatening to countries that they have to take action against them? I think this is still very much an undecided."
Even if Cyber Command restrains itself to merely gaining access to Russian networks and placing malware "implants" that could cause disruption without ever pulling the trigger, the threat alone would no doubt convince the Kremlin it had to maintain the same access to American utilities' networks. After all, Russia's hackers have already demonstrated perhaps the world's most aggressive targeting of foreign electric utility networks, triggering blackouts in Ukraine in 2015 and 2016, and Even if Cyber Command restrains itself to merely gaining access to Russian networks and placing malware "implants" that could cause disruption without ever pulling the trigger, the threat alone would no doubt convince the Kremlin it had to maintain the same access to American utilities' networks. After all, Russia's hackers have already demonstrated perhaps the world's most aggressive targeting of foreign electric utility networks, triggering blackouts in Ukraine in 2015 and 2016, and gaining deep access to American utilities’ industrial control systems in 2017.
More
https://www.wired.com/story/russia-cyberwar-escalation-power-grid/?CNDID=52110326&CNDID=52110326&bxid=MjM5NjgxODk5ODEzS0&hasha=51795d9ef38d316d0a8b791c47d95a9d&hashb=327a6dd0733c699cd325f763961d024592a4e823&mbid=nl_061819_daily_list1_p4&source=DAILY_NEWSLETTER&utm_brand=wired&utm_mailing=WIRED%20NL%20061819%20(1)&utm_medium=email&utm_source=nl
Alan Schwartz, CEO Bear Stearns, March 12, 2008.
Bust March 16, 2008.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May
DJIA: 24,815 +49 Down. NASDAQ: 7,453 +71 Down.
SP500: 2,752 +46 Down.
The S&P has reversed again to down after only one month. Time for
the Fed to step in again to buy stocks.
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