Baltic Dry Index. 1080
-25 Brent
Crude 60.30
Never ending Brexit
now October 31st, maybe.
Nuclear Trump
China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war
postponed to November, maybe.
It is
the maxim of every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home
what it will cost him more to make than to buy...What is prudence in the
conduct of every private family, can scarce be folly in that of a great
kingdom.
Adam
Smith. The Wealth of Nations, 1776.
With the Trump trade
war against China showing no sign of a win for either side, China seems to be
digging in for a protracted trade war. No sign that either Trump nor Xi are
preparing for compromise at the coming G-20 meeting in Japan at the end of the month. Americans face higher imported
consumer prices, China, and Asia supply chains, a slowing Asian economy.
Both the Baltic Dry
(shipping) Index and the price of crude oil are now indicating a slowing global
economy, or worse, the start of the next global recession. Who knew trade wars
aren’t easy to win, short, or without unpredictable consequences?
Below, a world
economy on the cusp of who knows what, thanks to Trump’s trade war team
hooligans.
Hong Kong leads Asian stocks lower, oil near five-month lows
June 13, 2019 /
2:06 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Asian shares were led lower on Thursday as the Hong Kong market fell for second
consecutive session following a day of massive street protests, while oil
prices flirted with five-month lows due to higher U.S. crude inventories and a
bleak demand outlook.
Hopes that the United States and China will clinch a deal on the
sidelines of a Group of 20 summit meeting in Osaka on June 28-29 have been
fading, also hurting sentiment and driving bond yields down.
“There’s not even a plan of ministerial-level bilateral meetings ahead
of the G20 summit. You can’t expect any major agreement,” said Hirokazu Kabeya,
chief global strategist at Daiwa Securities.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell as much
as 1%, as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1.5% following Wednesday’s 1.7%
fall.
The selling pressure in Hong Kong came after a mass demonstration
against legislation that would allow citizens to be extradited to China
triggered a mass protest and some of the worst unrest seen in the territory
since Britain handed it back to Chinese rule in 1997.
Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.8% while U.S. stock futures lost 0.3% in Asia,
following small losses the previous day when the S&P 500 shed 0.20%.
Oil hovered near five-month lows, pressured by another unexpected rise
in U.S. crude stockpiles, as well as the bleaker outlook for demand posed by
prospects of a protracted trade war between China and the United States.
More
China launches Nasdaq-style tech board in Shanghai, expects challenges
June 13, 2019 /
3:51 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China on Thursday officially launched Shanghai’s Nasdaq-style
tech board, with the country’s top securities regulator cautioning that the
hotly-anticipated STAR Market will face various challenges initially.
Yi Huiman, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC)
also unveiled plans for a slew of capital markets reform measures at a
financial forum in Shanghai.
First announced by President Xi Jinping in November, Shanghai’s new tech
board is largely seen as Beijing’s move to become self-sufficient in core
technologies such as chips, IT and biotech. So far, 120 companies have applied
to list on the board.
Underscoring importance of the STAR Market, Chinese vice premier Liu He
participated in the launch ceremony in Shanghai on Thursday, along with CSRC’s
Yi.
Complete with a U.S.-style registration-based IPO system, the STAR
Market would be mainland China’s first exchange-run board that allows
pre-profit firms to list.
It will also do away with paternalistic guidance from regulators on IPO
pricing and timing - developments that have some bankers and investors calling
it China’s boldest market reform yet.
More
China economists expect interest rate, RRR cuts in coming weeks - China Daily
June 13, 2019 /
1:24 AM
SHANGHAI/BEIJING
(Reuters) - China is expected to adjust money and credit supply in coming
weeks, including cuts to interest rates or reserve ratio requirements, to
counter “downside risks” if trade tensions escalate further, China Daily said,
citing economists.
Stronger measures are required to maintain liquidity in the financial
market and support infrastructure investment, the state-controlled newspaper
said.
China’s broad money supply and new yuan loans grew more slowly than
expected in May, official data on Wednesday showed, giving authorities room
move on policy if desired.
Consumer inflation also remained moderate last month, quickening to
2.7%, below the annual official target of around 3%.
PBOC chief Yi Gang said last week that there was “tremendous” room to
make policy adjustments if the China-U.S. trade war worsens.
“We have plenty of room in interest rates, we have plenty of room in
required reserve ratio rate, and also for the fiscal, monetary policy toolkit,
I think the room for adjustment is tremendous,” Yi said.
Last month, the PBOC stepped up efforts to increase loan growth and
business activity, announcing a three-phase cut in regional banks’ reserve
requirements to reduce financing costs for small and private companies.
It has now delivered six RRR cuts since early 2018.
---- Further cuts in banks’ reserve requirements are expected this year, especially after an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war last month, when both sides hiked tariffs on each other’s goods and Washington threatened more.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday declined to set a deadline for
levying tariffs on another $325 billion of Chinese goods and called the
relationship with Beijing good but “testy”.
More
A recession shock could wipe 30% off U.S. stocks, warns Oxford Economics
By Barbara
Kollmeyer Published: June 12, 2019
7:50 a.m. ET
An uneasy mood is rippling through markets.For starters, we’ve had chaotic scenes out of Hong Kong where police have been firing tear gas on protesters who amassed in the thousands to push back against a China extradition bill. That news has hit local stocks hard, and may be partly why we’re seeing some safe haven moves to gold, Treasury bonds and the Japanese yen.
But there’s also some buyer’s remorse playing out across Wall Street, as remarks by President Donald Trump on Tuesday curtailed some optimism over a China trade deal, and amid talk that investors are too optimistic about U.S. rate cuts. Consumer price inflation coming ahead of the open may shed more light on those rate-cut prospects.
Onto our call of the day from Oxford Economics, which has updated its quarterly outlook and admits the global economic is looking slightly weaker. The good news? Their base case isn’t alarming, as they say the world’s economy should still grow 2.7% this year and a bit more in 2020.
But they’ve got a couple of grim worst-case scenarios. One envisages the U.S. economy slowing sharply from the third quarter of this year, then falling into recession as corporate profits, hitting business and investor sentiment. The fallout from this could trigger a 30% drop in the S&P 500 SPX, -0.03% in the third quarter. Within a year the U.S. would be in recession, with the Fed cutting interest rates aggressively to “stave off the worst of the shock,” says the economic forecasters.
The other downbeat scenario pictures bleak fallout from a trade-war escalation. The U.S. slaps a 25% tariff on China and Mexico imports, and a 10% blanket tariff on Europe goods, and 25% on non-North American cars. Based on those assumptions, U.S. stocks could be 15% lower by late 2019, the firm says.
More
It is the highest impertinence and
presumption… in kings and ministers, to pretend to watch over the economy of
private people, and to restrain their expense... They are themselves always,
and without any exception, the greatest spendthrifts in the society. Let them
look well after their own expense, and they may safely trust private people
with theirs. If their own extravagance does not ruin the state, that of their
subjects never will.
Adam
Smith. The Wealth of Nations, 1776.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, more on those US rains. South China joins in too. India?
AccuWeather’s new analysis predicts substantial 2019 crop yield shortfall
By John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer June 11, 2019
AccuWeather’s latest analysis predicts a big variation from the early U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates for the corn and soybean yield in 2019 as a result of flooding and continued wet, difficult growing conditions throughout the U.S. Corn Belt.
The latest AccuWeather analysis predicts corn yield will be a whopping 11.3% lower than an April USDA estimate. The USDA predicted 14.96 billion bushels, but AccuWeather’s new analysis estimates this year’s total at 13.26 billion bushels. Last year’s corn yield was 14.3 billion bushels.
On Tuesday June 11th, the USDA released its latest estimate for corn yield and lowered its projected total to 13.68 billion bushels.
AccuWeather’s projected soybean yield of 3.952 billion bushels is 4.7% below the USDA’s April estimate of 4.15 billion bushels. Last year’s record season produced 4.54 billion bushels of soybeans.
The USDA's June 11th estimate remains unchanged at 4.15 billion bushels.
Corn and soybean planting remain well below normal, according to Monday’s latest USDA Crop Progress compared to the average from 2014-18. The Crop Progress indicated just 83% of corn was planted in 18 key corn-producing states. The 2014-18 average for corn planted by June 9 is 99%, so planting is off 16.1% in comparison.
Corn planting has been at an all-time low percentage for the last four reports and remains behind schedule in 15 of the 18 states monitored.
Soybean planting is behind in 16 of the 18 key soybean-producing states, according to the report. So far, just 60% of soybean planting has taken place, compared to the five-year average of 88% by June 9, meaning soybean planting is off 31.8%.
“Soybeans won’t be impacted as much because you can plant them all the way through the end of June and you won’t lose much in yield,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. “At this point, the vast majority of farmers who haven’t planted corn yet are filing for insurance or planting soybeans.
Farmers can file for Prevented Planting insurance coverage to cover a percentage of the loss of crops. Also, President Trump recently announced a $16 billion farm aid package to offset possible losses from U.S-China trade tensions.
---- Farmers’ struggles won’t be solved simply by insurance and a farm aid package, though. Kevin Kloesel, director of the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, told AccuWeather, “We’re talking about probably a billion-dollar disaster in the region on the ag side.”
And Indiana farmer Don Lamb wrote on his blog, “The geographical area of this challenge is huge. Every farmer is affected, of course, but with every farmer there are multiple relationships that will suffer financial consequences. The amount of seed, pesticides, fuel, fertilizer, and services that are NOT going to be sold is staggering." He added, "Of course, I am concerned about the financial impact to our farm, but I am more concerned about the ‘unknown’ impact this might have on the entire agriculture sector and rural communities.”
Thousands stranded, five killed, as heavy rain lashes south China
June 11, 2019 /
12:56 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters)
- Thousands of people have been stranded and at least five killed amid
torrential rain throughout central and southern China, with authorities bracing
themselves for at least another four days of downpours, state media reported on
Tuesday.
The official China
Daily said floods had wiped out 10,800 hectares of crops and destroyed hundreds
of houses in the Jiangxi province by Monday, with a total of 1.4 million people
affected and direct economic losses amounting to 2.65 billion yuan ($382.41
million).
In the region of Guangxi in the southwest, 20,000 households had their
power cut and roads, bridges and other infrastructure were severely damaged,
the China Daily said.
Rainfall in Jiangxi reached as much as 688 millimeters (27 inches),
according to a notice by China’s meteorological administration. It said rain in
parts of Jiangxi and Hunan had hit record highs for June.
The administration said rainstorms were expected to spread to Guangdong,
Fujian, Jiangxi, Yunnan, Sichuan and Taiwan by Thursday. It also warned
authorities to be on their guard against severe thunderstorms and the
possibility of small rivers bursting their banks in coming days.
India evacuates hundreds of thousands as cyclone Vayu builds fury
June 12, 2019 /
6:58 AM
MUMBAI (Reuters)
- India evacuated hundreds of thousands of people to shelters along the coast
in its western state of Gujarat as a cyclone gathering intensity over the
Arabian Sea was expected to hit land on Thursday.
Weather officials said Cyclone Vayu, with wind speeds equivalent to
those of a Category 1 hurricane, is set to cross the coast with sustained wind
speeds of 145 kph to 155 kph (90 mph to 96 mph), and could gust as high as 170
kph (106 mph).
The state government said it had begun moving about 300,000 people from
the most vulnerable areas into shelters.
“We have started evacuation in coastal districts today morning,” a
Gujarat disaster management official said on Wednesday.
The state’s chief minister, Vijay Rupani, has asked India’s military and
its National Disaster Response Force for help with rescue and relief efforts if
the cyclone causes widespread damage and disruption.
The federal home minister, Amit Shah, also urged officials to ensure
swift restoration of utilities such as power, telecoms and drinking water if
they are disrupted by the cyclone.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned the cyclone could hold up the progress of annual monsoon rains, as the storm drew rain clouds from over the sea.
The monsoon was already about a week late in arriving at Kerala on the southern coast this year, and much of the country has broiled in a summer heatwave in recent weeks.
Gujarat is also home to large refineries and sea ports near the storm’s path.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
The most complete study of battery failure sees the light
Date:
May 30, 2019
Source:
European Synchrotron Radiation Facility
Summary:
An international team of researchers just published the widest study on what
happens during battery failure, focusing on the different parts of a battery at
the same time.
An international team of researchers just published in Advanced
Energy Materials the widest study on what happens during battery failure,
focusing on the different parts of a battery at the same time. The role of the
ESRF, the European Synchrotron, in France, was crucial for its success.
We have all experienced it: you have charged your mobile phone and after
a short period using it, the battery goes down unusually quickly. Consumer
electronics seem to lose power at uneven rates and this is due to the
heterogeneity in batteries. When the phone is charging, the top layer charges
first and the bottom layer charges later. The mobile phone may indicate it's
complete when the top surface level is finished charging, but the bottom will
be undercharged. If you use the bottom layer as your fingerprint, the top layer
will be overcharged and will have safety problems.
The truth is, batteries are composed of many different parts that behave
differently. Solid polymer helps hold particles together, carbon additives
provide electrical connection, and then there are the active battery particles
storing and releasing the energy.
An international team of scientists from the ESRF, SLAC, Virginia Tech
and Purdue University wanted to understand and quantitatively define what leads
to the failure of lithium-ion batteries. Until then, studies had either zoomed
in on individual areas or particles in the cathode during failure or zoomed out
to look at cell level behavior without offering sufficient microscopic details.
Now this study provides the first global view with unprecedented amount of
microscopic structural details to complement the existing studies in the
battery literature.
If you have a perfect electrode, every single particle should behave in
the same fashion. However, electrodes are very heterogeneous and contain
millions of particles. There's no way to ensure each particle behaves the same
way at the same time.
To overcome this challenge, the research team relied heavily on the
synchrotron X-ray methods and used two synchrotron facilities to study
electrodes in batteries, the ESRF, the European synchrotron in Grenoble, France
and Stanford's SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, in US. "The ESRF
allowed us to study larger quantities of battery particles at higher
resolution" says Feng Lin, assistant professor at Virginia Tech.
Complementary experiments, in particular nano-resolution X-ray
spectro-microscopy, took place at SLAC.
----"Before the experiments we didn't know we could study these many particles at once. Imaging individual active battery particles has been the focus of this field. To make a better battery, you need to maximize the contribution from each individual particle," says Yijin Liu, scientist at SLAC.
Virginia Tech lab manufactured the materials and batteries, which were
then tested for their charging and degradation behaviors at the ESRF and SLAC.
Kejie Zhao, assistant professor at Purdue University, led the computational
modelling effort in this project.
The findings from this publication offer a diagnostic method for the
particles utilization and fading in batteries. "This could improve how
industry designs electrodes for fast-charging batteries," concludes Yang.
To widen the market and to narrow the
competition, is always the interest of the dealers…The proposal of any new law
or regulation of commerce which comes from this order, ought always to be
listened to with great precaution, and ought never to be adopted till after having
been long and carefully examined, not only with the most scrupulous, but with
the most suspicious attention. It comes from an order of men, whose interest is
never exactly the same with that of the public, who have generally an interest
to deceive and even oppress the public, and who accordingly have, upon many
occasions, both deceived and oppressed it.
Adam
Smith. The Wealth of Nations, 1776.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May
DJIA: 24,815 +49 Down. NASDAQ: 7,453 +71 Down.
SP500: 2,752 +46 Down.
The S&P has reversed again to down after only one month. Time for
the Fed to step in again to buy stocks.
ReplyDeleteMy name is Leah Brown, I'm a happy woman today? I told myself that any loan lender that could change my life and that of my family after having been scammed separately by these online loan lenders, I will refer to anyone who is looking for loan for them. It gave me and my family happiness, although at first I had a hard time trusting him because of my experiences with past loan lenders, I needed a loan of $300,000.00 to start my life everywhere as single mother with 2 children, I met this honest and God fearing online loan lender Gain Credit Loan who helped me with a $300,000.00 loan, working with a loan company Good reputation. If you are in need of a loan and you are 100% sure of paying the loan please contact (gaincreditloan1@gmail.com)
We are specialized in producing raschel blanket for 16 years, our quality is always good and stable , we have QC department to control the blanket quality , any quality problems we will take responsibility . Our designs and colors are very popular in middle-east market also , our salesmen visit the market at least 4 times every year , we have 41 years' experience in the market , we know what our customers need , and also know very well about the market popular tendency China Blanket
ReplyDelete