Baltic Dry Index. 1138
unch. Brent
Crude 63.60
Never ending Brexit
now October 31st, maybe.
Nuclear Trump
China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war
postponed to November, maybe.
“I'm
really very sorry for you all, but it's an unjust world, and virtue is
triumphant only in theatrical performances.”
The Mikado
Get long some fully
paid up physical gold and silver held securely outside of the financial system,
our central banksters are trapped in a free fiat money system that will likely
collapse during the next global recession. A recession that may already have
started, thanks to all the trade wars. An arriving recession fear that has the
USA Federal Reserve already talking up interest rate cuts.
Below, the Great
Nixonian Error of fiat money, communist money, August 15, 1971, gets closer to
its end – revulsion. The benefits of fiat money were all front loaded and long
ago dissipated, in wars, bribes to voters and special interests, louche
lifestyle, and a massive build-up of largely unrepayable debt.
The 2008-2009 central
bank game plan will be tried again, but next time with a very different result.
But first a relief rally on no Mexican tariffs. An exit rally.
“Let
the punishment fit the crime.”
The Mikado.
Stocks gain as Mexico tariffs averted, yuan falls to 2019 lows
June 10, 2019 /
12:29 AM
TOKYO (Reuters)
- U.S. stock futures and Asian shares rose on Monday after the United States
dropped its threat to impose tariffs on Mexico in a deal to combat illegal
migration from Central America, and as weak U.S. jobs data raised hopes for
U.S. interest rate cuts.
The Mexican peso jumped about 2.0% in early Monday trade to 19.2285 on
the dollar on news of the deal, while the Chinese yuan slipped to its lowest
levels this year on weak Chinese imports data and as talks to end the Sino-U.S.
dispute remained deadlocked.
S&P500 mini futures rose as much as 0.8% and was last up 0.4%. The
10-year U.S. Treasuries yield jumped back 3.5 basis points to 2.119 percent,
after hitting a 21-month low of 2.053 percent on Friday on soft U.S. jobs data.
Global investors had feared that opening up another trade conflict,
while still battling with China, could tip the United States and other
economies into recession.
---- The improved risk sentiment also helped lift the dollar against the yen 0.15% to 108.38 yen.
“The deal with Mexico is boosting sentiment while expectations of U.S.
rate cuts will be also supporting share prices,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior
strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management.
“Still, with limited progress seen so far in U.S-China trade talks, the
most important issue for markets, stock prices will be able to rise only so
much,” he added.
That cautionary note was driven home by Chinese data on Monday morning
showing imports contracted 8.5% in May from a year-earlier, a much worse than
expected outcome that signalled weak domestic consumption.
Exports, however, unexpectedly rose 1.1% last month, though many suspect
the uptick is linked to front-loading of shipments by firms to avoid higher
U.S. tariffs.
More
Opinion: It’s game over for the Fed as the central bank’s credibility crumbles
By Sven
Henrich Published: June 7, 2019
10:44 a.m. ET
Game over.
The grand central bank experiment of the past 10 years has ended in
utter and complete failure. The games of cheap money and constant intervention
that have brought you record global debt to the tune of $250 trillion and
record wealth inequality are about to embark on a new round of peddling blue meth
again.
Australia has already cut interest rates, and so has India. The European
Central Bank (ECB) is talking about it, and markets are already pricing in
multiple Federal Reserve cuts. The new global rate-cutting cycle begins anew
before the last one ever ended. Brace yourselves as no one, absolutely no one,
can know how this will turn out.
We are witnessing a historic unraveling here. Everything every central
banker has uttered last year was completely wrong. Every projection they made
over the past 10 years has been wrong. No wonder Fed boss Jay Powell wants to
toss the dot plot. It’s a public record of failure.
Why place confidence in people who are staring at the ruins of the
policies they unleashed on the world and are about to unleash again?
All the distortions of 10 years of cheap money, debt, wealth inequality,
zombie companies, negative debt, “TINA,” you name it, will be further
exacerbated by hapless and scared central bankers whose only solution to
failure is to embark on the same cheap money train again. All under the banner
to “extend the business cycle” at all costs. Never asking whether they should,
nor considering the consequences. But since they are not elected by the people
and face zero consequences for failure, they don’t have to consider the
collateral damage they inflict.
I repeat: Structural bears who have predicted that central bankers would
never be able to normalize the construct they created and has produced the
world’s greatest debt explosion ever were 100% correct. We’re all staring at a
colossal policy failure with no accountability.
----One is virtually enticed to chase assets again for that big grand finale perhaps.
Not because of earnings, not because of revenues or growth. Because they
have to, as yields are once again collapsing and central bankers are
again promising free money.
As I’ve outlined for quite some time: Stock markets can’t sustain gains
or record prices without intervention, without a helping hand, without dovish
and intervening central banks. This has been true for 10 years, and it
continues to be true in 2019 because that’s where all the big gains are:
This
is not capitalism, nor does this ongoing farce constitute free-market price
discovery. It’s politburo-based central planning, desperately trying to keep
the balls in the air.
----The pretense is gone; it’s all about keeping the illusion alive that the Fed knows what it’s doing, that it’s always there to save markets from any trouble.
But its track record is obvious: It has failed to meet its inflation
targets (ill-guided as they may be) for 10 years. It has failed to normalize
policy despite years of promises to do so, and will never be able to normalize.
Between 2008-2019, the Fed was non-accommodative for three months. It blew up
in their faces in December. They’ll never be non-accommodative again. They
can’t.
This week investors are happy to chase the coming free-money train
again. They may well be rewarded for the same gig that has worked for 10 years
with the consequences already apparent: Ever more record government, corporate
and consumer debt and, yes, ever more extreme wealth inequality. Bravo.
More
World bonds wave recession flags as future inflation evaporates
June 7, 2019 /
2:22 PM
LONDON (Reuters) -
After almost three years of successfully predicting a global economic revival,
world bond markets are furiously flagging the risk of yet another recession, as
well as low inflation for a generation.
Spooked by the escalating U.S.-China trade war, long-term interest rates
embedded in government bond markets - widely seen as the most accurate
predictors of future economic activity and inflation - have relapsed into deep
troughs.
U.S. Treasury yields have plunged 50 basis points in seven weeks, while
sub-zero German 10-year bond yields are at record lows. In Japan, Britain,
Switzerland and France, borrowing costs are at their lowest since 2016 - when
financial markets were hit by a combination of blows including Britain’s shock
decision to leave the European Union and an economic slowdown in China.
Recession is not a given. Bond markets may be pointing that way but some
other indicators, such as equity markets, are not as bearish.
More
In stagnant Japan, ECB policymakers catch glimpse of their own future
June 9, 2019 /
10:34 AM
FUKUOKA, Japan
(Reuters) - Europe’s top central bankers who met their global peers in Japan
this weekend may have caught a glimpse of their own future.
With a stagnant economy and declining population for the past two
decades, Japan has long been seen as a harbinger for the euro zone.
Talk of the “Japanification” of the currency bloc is set to gain further
traction after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi last week shelved
plans to raise interest rates from record lows and opened the door to ease
policy further.
That evoked parallels with the Bank of Japan’s prolonged stimulus policy
under Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, which has seen it gobble up 45 percent of the
country’s government debt as it tries to hit an elusive 2 percent inflation
target.
“There’s a real risk of Japanification right now,” one euro zone central
bank official said at the meeting of finance ministers and central bank
governors in Fukuoka, southern Japan.
More
Bundesbank's Weidmann: U.S.-China row may reduce world trade by 1%
June 9, 2019 /
11:09 AM
FUKUOKA, Japan (Reuters) - A trade dispute between the United States and
China could reduce global trade by 1% in the medium term, Bundesbank President
Jens Weidmann said on Sunday.
“The world economy is suffering a lot from the uncertainty,” Weidmann
said after a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors,
adding Germany’s economy may shrink slightly in the second quarter but no
stimulus was needed.
Bundesbank slashes German growth forecasts on industry's plight
June 7, 2019 /
7:41 AM
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The Bundesbank slashed its growth projections for
Germany on Friday, saying industrial groups in the euro zone’s biggest economy
would suffer from weak demand through the rest of the year.
Having been Europe’s engine of growth for years, Germany is now the
biggest drag on the bloc, threatening to derail the euro zone’s long and
protracted recovery from years of crisis as a global trade war exacerbates its
troubles.
The European Central Bank took the prospect of an interest rate hike off
the table on Thursday and said it could even cut its already record rates or
restart a massive asset purchase programme given weak growth.
The Bundesbank now
sees 2019 GDP growth at just 0.6%, well below the 1.6% it forecast in December
and it expects growth rebounding only to 1.2% next year, short of the 1.6%
projected earlier.
More
Fitch downgrades Deutsche Bank in latest blow for German lender
More
In other news, China fights back for Huawei. Seems to this old dinosaur market watcher,
there’s soon going to be a whole lot of collateral damage on both sides.
China warns tech giants after US Huawei ban: report
Date created : 09/06/2019 - 04:50
The Chinese government convened top tech companies this week and warned them
of consequences if they cut off technology sales to the country, US media
reported on Saturday.
The meeting followed US President Donald Trump's move last month to
blacklist Chinese tech giant Huawei over national security concerns,
threatening the firm's global ambitions and ramping up the months-long trade
battle between the two countries.
Earlier this week, the Chinese government summoned executives from
American firms Dell and Microsoft and South Korea's Samsung, among others, to
warn them that any moves to ramp down their businesses in China may lead to
retaliation, The New York Times reported.
American companies were told "that the Trump administration's move
to cut off Chinese companies from American technology had disrupted the global
supply chain, adding that companies that followed the policy could face
permanent consequences," the newspaper reported.
Companies based outside the United States were told that as long as they
maintained business as usual, they wouldn't be punished, the newspaper reported.
Last Friday, Facebook announced it would cut Huwaei off from its popular
social networking app to comply with the US sanctions, further isolating the
company that has become the world's second-largest smartphone vendor.
Google made a similar announcement in May.
Washington and Beijing resumed their trade battle last month when
negotiations in the US ended without a deal and US President Donald Trump
raised tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods.
Beijing retaliated with its own tariff hike on billions of dollars worth
of US goods.
The US move to cut Huawei off from American hardware came next, but was
delayed by 90 days to prevent economic disruptions.
China to curb some technology exports to U.S.: Global Times editor
June 8, 2019 /
1:09 PM
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China is preparing to curb some technology exports
to the United States, the chief editor of China’s Global Times newspaper said
on Saturday.
If enacted, the measures suggest Beijing would retaliate over U.S.
restrictions imposed on Shenzhen-based Huawei Technologies Co Ltd due to what
Washington said were national security issues.
In a tweet, the pro-CCP paper’s editor-in-chief Hu Xijin said that China
“is building a management mechanism to protect China’s key technologies.”
“This is a major step to improve its system and also a move to counter
U.S. crackdown,” he added. “Once taking effect, some technology exports to the
U.S. will be subject to the control.”
Hu did not cite any named sources in his tweet. The Global times is not
an official mouthpiece for the Communist Party though its views are believed to
at times represent those of its leaders.
Around the time of Hu’s tweet, Chinese state media outlet Xinhua
reported that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) would
organize a study to establish a “national technological security management
list system.”
More
“To sit
in solemn silence on a dull, dark dock
in a pestilential prison with a life-long lock
awaiting the sensation of a short, sharp shock
from a cheap and chippy chopper on a big, black block.”
in a pestilential prison with a life-long lock
awaiting the sensation of a short, sharp shock
from a cheap and chippy chopper on a big, black block.”
The Mikado
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, as we wait on the
USDA’s latest crop report out later today, some related weather news. Could an
US agri-business slump swamp the Fed and
turn into something much bigger? A few central bankster interest rate cuts won’t
plant fields underwater, nor spur a surge in tractor sales, fertiliser, and
weedkiller.
Drenched U.S. documented second-wettest May on record
Updated June 8,
2019 at 9:56 AM
While the continental United States recorded its wettest 12-month
period in recorded
history this year, historic flooding and record-shattering rainfall amounts
landed May 2019 as the second-wettest month in the United States.Precipitation across the contiguous United States that accumulated over the June 2018 to May 2019 12-month period shattered the previous record for any 12-month period with 37.68 inches, 7.73 inches above average.
"The previous
June-May record was 35.47 inches and occurred from June 1982 to May 1983. The
previous all-time 12-month record was 36.20 inches and occurred from May 2018
to April 2019," Reppert said.
While the drought relief has been welcomed in some areas, the wet weather has resulted in disastrous flooding for many communities across the country.
"Most of the wetness has been focused from the Plains through the mid-Atlantic. Rainfall for May 2019 was also quite high in the Southwest as well. In fact, the wettest May on record was had in Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska," Reppert said.
NOAA reported 126 counties in the contiguous U.S. had their wettest May on record.
"Over the 12 months, the lone state that averaged below normal was Washington. Every other state was average to record wettest, with 18 states having a record wettest June-May period," Reppert said.
Dozens of cities from the lower Mississippi Valley to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley received 125-180 percent of their normal yearly rainfall in 2018.
---- The floods have also claimed the loss of many crops and continue to affect crop planting. Flood-damaged grain has to be destroyed because of the potential for many contaminants to enter through the water.
Corn planting has
been at an all-time low percentage and remains behind schedule in 17 of the 18
states monitored, according to the most recent crop progress
report.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2019/06/08/Drenched-US-documented-second-wettest-May-on-record/3901559999439/?lh=7‘Punched in the Face’: U.S. Floods Snarl Trucks, Trains, Barges
By Brian K Sullivan, Shruti Singh, and Mario Parker
8 June 2019, 12:00 BST
·
Hundreds of barges stalled on Mississippi, other
waterways
·
Transport plans for supplies change daily as
rain pours down
Hundreds of barges are stalled on the Mississippi River, clogging the main circulatory system for a farm-belt economy battered by a relentless, record-setting string of snow, rainstorms and flooding.
Railways and highways have been closed as well, keeping needed supplies from farmers and others, and limiting the crops sent to market. For Chris Boerm, who manages transportation for Archer-Daniels-Midland Co., one of the nation’s largest agricultural commodities dealers, the weather is an unyielding, ever-changing challenge.
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-08/-punched-in-the-face-by-floods-traffic-snarls-on-u-s-rivers
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Organic electronics: a new semiconductor in the carbon-nitride family
Date:
June 6, 2019
Source:
Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin für Materialien und Energie
Summary:
Researchers have explored a new material in the carbon-nitride family.
Triazine-based graphitic carbon nitride (TGCN) is a semiconductor that should
be highly suitable for applications in optoelectronics.
Teams from Humboldt-Universität and the Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin have
explored a new material in the carbon-nitride family. Triazine-based graphitic
carbon nitride (TGCN) is a semiconductor that should be highly suitable for
applications in optoelectronics. Its structure is two-dimensional and
reminiscent of graphene. Unlike graphene, however, the conductivity in the
direction perpendicular to its 2D planes is 65 times higher than along the planes
themselves.
Some organic materials might be able to be utilised similarly to silicon
semiconductors in optoelectronics. Whether in solar cells, light-emitting
diodes, or in transistors -- what is important is the band gap, i.e. the
difference in energy level between electrons in the valence band (bound state)
and the conduction band (mobile state). Charge carriers can be raised from the
valence band into the conduction band by means of light or an electrical
voltage. This is the principle behind how all electronic components operate.
Band gaps of one to two electron volts are ideal.
A team headed by chemist Dr. Michael J. Bojdys at Humboldt University
Berlin recently synthesised a new organic semiconductor material in the
carbon-nitride family. Triazine-based graphitic carbon nitride (or TGCN)
consists of only carbon and nitrogen atoms, and can be grown as a brown film on
a quartz substrate.The combination of C and N atoms form hexagonal honeycombs
similar to graphene, which consists of pure carbon.Just as with graphene, the
crystalline structure of TGCN is two-dimensional.With graphene, however, the
planar conductivity is excellent, while its perpendicular conductivity is very
poor. In TGCN it is exactly the opposite: the perpendicular conductivity is about
65 times greater than the planar conductivity. With a band gap of 1.7 electron
volts, TGCN is a good candidate for applications in optoelectronics.
More
Yes, I
am indeed beautiful! Sometimes I sit and wonder, in my artless American way,
why it is that I am so much more attractive than anybody else in the whole
world. Can this be vanity? No! Nature is lovely and rejoices in her loveliness.
I am a child of Nature, and take after my mother.
Donald J. Trump, with apologies to W. S.
Gilbert and Yum-Yum.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May
DJIA: 24,815 +49 Down. NASDAQ: 7,453 +71 Down.
SP500: 2,752 +46 Down.
The S&P has reversed again to down after only one month. Time for
the Fed to step in again to buy stocks.
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