Baltic Dry Index. 1093
+08 Brent
Crude 60.91
Never ending Brexit
now October 31st, maybe.
Nuclear Trump
China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war
postponed to November, maybe.
Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute
master of all industry and commerce.
James A. Garfield
Today and tomorrow it’s
all about the price of money at the Federal Reserve. Will they lower the price
of US money at this week’s Fed meeting or will they wait until July? The market
is betting on July, but betting nevertheless on an interest rate cut to drive stocks
higher.
Stock bulls think
they have the Fed over a barrel and that the Powell Fed dare not thwart them
this week or more likely next month. They expect more Fed capitulation by Fed
Chairman Powell in tomorrow’s press conference after the end of tomorrow’s
final session.
With President Trump
on the warpath for Chairman Powell’s scalp and lower interest rates, it will
take a brave or foolhardy Fed Chairman to block him.
Below, markets pause,
before the Fed fuels them higher. Whether in the face of a slowing global
economy pushing very high stocks higher is a good thing, is a dubious
proposition. If it all goes wrong, they simply have further to fall, destroying
more “wealth” in the process. 12 voting central banksters in Washington take on
a pretence of knowledge far beyond their competence.
The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The
process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight-of-hand that was ever
invented.
Josiah Stamp
Asian markets mostly gain ahead of central bank meetings
By Marketwatch
and Associated
Press Published: June 17, 2019 11:46 p.m. ET
Asian markets mostly gained in muted early trading Tuesday,
as investors awaited key central bank meetings later this week.Japan’s Nikkei NIK, -0.78% slipped 0.2% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, +0.73% rose 0.7%. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +0.08% inched up 0.1%, about the same as the smaller-cal Shenzhen Composite 399106, +0.24% . South Korea’s Kospi 180721, +0.38% gained 0.5% while benchmark indexes in Taiwan Y9999, +0.10% , Singapore STI, +0.81% and Indonesia JAKIDX, +0.75% advanced. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, +0.59% rose 0.4%.
----The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee will hold a two-day meeting starting Tuesday. Traders will keep a close watch on a policy statement, to be released Wednesday, and a news conference held by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell shortly after that.
Powell will likely stick to the theme of a speech he made earlier this
month: That the Fed will act if it thinks the Trump administration’s trade
conflicts are threatening the U.S. economy.
Financial markets had rallied on the remarks, which fueled hopes that
the Fed would cut interest rates this year. Although a rate cut isn’t expected
this time around, fresh comments from Powell could support another wave of
buying or have investors swing the other way.
“With scant data releases and no significant developments on the trade
front, the mood in Asia will likely remain cautious with investors awaiting the
FOMC meeting and possible adjustments to the dot plots before taking on
substantial bets,” ING economists Nicholas Mapa and Prakash Sakpal said in a commentary.
Central banks in Britain and Japan will also announce their latest
monetary policy decisions this week.
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia released minutes from a policy
meeting in June, which saw it easing its cash rate to 1.25%. According to the
minutes, members agreed that further rate cuts were “more likely than not” in
the period ahead, although there were other ways to reduce unemployment.
More
Empire State manufacturing index posts largest-ever drop into negative territory in June
By Greg Robb
Published: June 17, 2019 9:15 a.m. ET
Index declines 26 points to -8.6, first negative reading in more than two years
The numbers: The New York Fed’s Empire State business conditions index took a sharp
turn for the worse in June, falling into negative territory for the first time
in more than two years.
The Empire State manufacturing index plummeted 26.4 points to negative
8.6 in June, the New York Fed said Monday. That’s a record decline. Economists
had expected a reading of positive 10, according to a survey by Econoday.
Any reading below zero indicates a contraction in activity. The last
time the index was negative was in October 2016.
What happened: There was broad-based weakness in the report. A key metric, the new-orders index, sank 21.7 points to -12 in June. Shipments fell 6.6 points to 9.7. Unfilled orders also fell sharply and inventories sank into negative territory. The index of future activity fell only 4.9 points to 25.7 in June.
Big picture: Manufacturing has been a weak link in the economy this year, buffeted by
uncertainty caused by tough U.S. trade policy against China and Mexico and a
slowing of activity overseas. Auto sales are set to be lower this year. The
large pullback might bolster the case for an interest-rate cut when Federal
Reserve officials meet on Tuesday and Wednesday.
More
Five things to watch in the pivotal Fed meeting
By Greg Robb
Published: June 17, 2019 3:11 a.m. ET
Economists expect central bank to move away from patient stance and adopt easing bias
At its last policy meeting in early May, the Federal Reserve said it was going to be patient for some time before changing interest rates.“Some time” may turn out to be all of two months.
Economists expect the Fed to try to back away gracefully from that stance with a new pledge to cut interest rates, if warranted.
Over the last few weeks, escalating trade tensions and a sense that the economy is on a slowing trend have led the market to price in over two cuts this year, according to futures trading as shown by the CME Group’s Fed Watch tool.The market is pricing in an 80% chance of a quarter-point reduction in July.
So a Fed remaining on hold, if poised to act, presents a communications challenge to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
“It’s not a soft shoe that I envy,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Capital Management.
Here
is what to watch when the Fed announces its decision at 2 p.m. Eastern on
Wednesday.
1. Patient but ready. In its last policy statement in early May,
the FOMC said: “in light of global economic and financial developments and
muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what
future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be
appropriate to support these outcomes.”
Economists are expecting the central bank to hold the benchmark
federal-funds target rate in a range between 2.25% and 2.5% while rewriting the
language to signal some greater degree of readiness to adjust policy.
“It may do this by adding language on sensitivity to data and
developments to its conception of patience,” said Daniel Ahn, chief U.S.
economist at BNP Paribas.
Some economists think the statement might also might highlight the
“downside risks” posed by global and financial developments.
More
Businesses clamor for Trump's ear as $300 bn in new China tariffs loom
Date
created : 17/06/2019 - 03:18
Washington is planning another tidal wave of tariffs on Chinese imports
that represent a worst-case scenario for markets and major industries on both
sides of the Pacific.
And on Monday, seven days of public hearings are due to begin as major
businesses issue their loudest warnings yet about layoffs, lost business and
America's waning industrial predominance.
Some industries, such as steel and aluminum producers, have benefitted
from President Donald Trump's trade policies and strongly support tariffs.
But the lion's share so far are pleading with his administration to
spare the imports they depend on -- if not to step back from the brink of an
unprecedented all-out trade conflict that economists say would prove dire for
global growth.
Should they take effect, the newest $300 billion round of tariffs --
which follow last month's sudden crackup in trade negotiations with Beijing --
would mean stinging duties cover just about all of the more than half trillion
dollars in goods that Americans buy from China every year.
Major trade bodies share Trump's principle grievances with Beijing,
accusing it of rampant industrial espionage and massive state intervention in
markets.
But in a letter to Trump on Thursday, hundreds of US companies large and
small, including retail giants Target and Walmart, warned Trump the new tariff
round could cost two million jobs and cut US GDP growth by a full percentage
point.
So far, Trump has imposed tariffs on more than $250 billion in Chinese
goods but this has spared most consumer items from major price increases.
Still, William Reinsch, a trade policy expert at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies, told AFP the new tariffs were likely to
pinch ordinary consumers far more.
"Unlike the previous times, I think there'll be a sharp negative
reaction from the public," he said.
"If these things go into effect in July, what you're going to see
is fairly immediate price increases on a whole bunch of things right at the
point where people are gearing up to shop for the fall season, for winter
clothes and for Christmas."
More
In other news, in America’s grain
belt this year, it’s too much rain for far to long.
Corn prices rise as relentless rain wipes out crops
June 17, 2019 /
6:31 PM
EVANSVILLE, Ind., June 17 (UPI) -- Corn prices are rising this spring as
heavy rains across the Midwest lay waste to this year's crop.
On Monday, the corn futures price for July opened at $4.54 per bushel --
the highest it's been in five years, according to the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange.
The price leap comes as growers continue battling to get their corn in the ground.
"When the bomb cyclone hit Nebraska in March, that was really the beginning of the whole thing," said Gale Lush, a Nebraska farmer who serves as chairman of the American Corn Growers Association. "Then the rain started and it hasn't stopped."
American farmers are usually finished planting corn by early June. But, as of Monday afternoon, 92 percent of the nation's fields were planted, making this the slowest planting season recorded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Of the nation's key corn-growing states, Ohio is farthest behind, with 68 percent of its fields planted. South Dakota is next, with 78 percent, followed by Indiana and Kentucky, each with 84 percent.
---- Across most of the Midwest, corn yields begin to suffer if the seeds are not in the ground by about May 10. And by June 1, so much is lost that most farmers give up on planting altogether.
But late last week, farmers across the region continued hustling to get
their seeds in the ground.
"For some of the guys, they have livestock that rely on corn as a feed
source," Sam Custer, an Ohio State University extension educator.
"The availability of corn is going to be difficult in our area with the
pressure from the other livestock and the ethanol plants. There's a lot of
demand in our area, so they've just got to get their corn planted."
But as another week of heavy rain is forecast, even that window if fast
closing, Custer said.
More
Finally, Huawei
again. Who in Washington knew that Huawei was important to US chip makers,
before someone in D.C. suddenly decided to blacklist Huawei? Economic warfare,
gets more complicated with each passing month.
U.S. chipmakers quietly lobby to ease Huawei ban - sources
June 17, 2019 /
12:05 AM
SAN
FRANCISCO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Huawei’s American chip suppliers, including
Qualcomm and Intel, are quietly pressing the U.S. government to ease its ban on
sales to the Chinese tech giant, even as Huawei itself avoids typical government
lobbying, people familiar with the situation said.
Executives from top U.S. chipmakers Intel and Xilinx Inc attended a
meeting in late May with the Commerce Department to discuss a response to
Huawei’s placement on the black list, one person said.
The ban bars U.S. suppliers from selling to Huawei, the world’s largest
telecommunications equipment company, without special approval, because of what
the government said were national security issues.
Qualcomm has also pressed the Commerce Department over the issue, four
people said.
Chip makers argue that Huawei units selling products such as smartphones
and computer servers use commonly available parts and are unlikely to present
the same security concerns as the Chinese technology firm’s 5G networking gear,
according to three people.
“This isn’t about helping Huawei. It’s about preventing harm to American
companies,” one of the people said.
Out of $70 billion that Huawei spent buying components in 2018, some $11
billion (£8.75 billion) went to U.S. firms including Qualcomm, Intel and Micron
Technology Inc.
Qualcomm, for example, wants to be able to continue shipping chips to
Huawei for common devices like phones and smart watches, a person familiar with
the company’s situation said.
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), a trade group,
acknowledged it arranged consultations with the U.S. government on behalf of
the companies to help them comply and brief officials on the impact of the ban
on the companies.
“For technologies that do not relate to national security, it seems they
shouldn’t fall within the scope of the order. And we have conveyed this
perspective to government,” said Jimmy Goodrich, vice president of global
policy at SIA.
More
I sincerely believe that banking establishments are more
dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be
paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a
large scale.
Thomas Jefferson
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, the EUSSR
again. To bad 90 percent of Italian banksters give the other ten percent a bad
name, to misquote Henry Kissinger, who knew a thing or two about fraud and
deceit.
Nice to see that old
Three Card Monte di Siena, the world’s oldest bank, kept their hand in the game.
After 547 years in the game, still as sharp as ever with the clients.
Mind you, Germany’s
banksters can fit the bill too.
Exclusive: Banks face new challenges in Italian diamond scandal
June 17, 2019 /
7:06 AM
MILAN (Reuters) -
A long-running criminal probe into diamond sales by Italian banks has uncovered
what prosecutors say is further evidence of corruption by officials at
UniCredit, Italy’s largest lender, and smaller rival Banco BPM.
The allegations, some previously unreported, are laid out in documents
used by prosecutors when they sought a magistrate’s order seizing assets from
the banks and two diamond brokers. Reuters viewed the documents, which also
included excerpts of wire taps and witness statements.
The allegations relate to suspected crimes and do not necessarily mean
that prosecutors will charge the companies and their employees when their
investigation, which has been running since 2016, is concluded.
The number of bank officials under suspicion, and the allegations they
may face if they are charged, however, are widening.
In a new development, officials from UniCredit and Banco BPM are also
suspected of corruption because broker Intermarket Diamond Business (IDB)
invested some of its profits from the diamond sales in the banks’ shares,
according to evidence gathered by prosecutors.
In addition to UniCredit and Banco BPM, Intesa Sanpaolo and Banca Monte
dei Paschi di Siena are also under investigation.
In February, magistrates guiding the probe ordered the seizure of more
than 700 million euros in assets from the two brokers and five banks.
UniCredit said in a statement to Reuters it was cooperating closely with
authorities and its policy was not to comment on an ongoing investigation. It
would “continue to offer appropriate customer care services to its affected
clients”.
Lawyers for Banco BPM, Banca Aletti, Intesa Sanpaolo and IDB did not
respond to requests for comment. Monte dei Paschi’s lawyers declined to
comment.
In a long-running scandal in a sector already tarnished by controversy,
Italy’s biggest banks are suspected of colluding with diamond brokers to scam
their own customers — allegedly selling them diamonds at vastly inflated prices
while marketing them as sound financial investments.
---- Prosecutors also allege that UniCredit and Banco BPM worked out a deal with IDB where, in return for the banks selling IDB’s diamonds, the broker would channel money into their stock, boosting their share capital at a time when it was under pressure from a rising tide of bad debts.
Under Italian law it is deemed to be corruption when one party abuses
its commercial position to induce the counterparty to provide it with favors —
in this case, the alleged purchase of shares. The IDB officials involved are
also under investigation.
More
Deutsche Bank’s Top Executives Embroiled in German Tax Scandal
By Karin Matussek and Donal Griffin
17 June 2019, 09:22 BST Updated on 17 June 2019,
12:47 BST
·
Bank provided services to clients exploiting tax
loophole
·
Lender says it never directly participated in Cum-Ex
deals
For over a decade, one of the biggest financial scandals in German history has been snaking its way through Deutsche Bank AG.
Now, it’s approaching the highest levels of the German lender, with three key figures -- investment banking chief Garth Ritchie, former co-Chief Executive Officer Anshu Jain and his predecessor Josef Ackermann -- among 80 suspects linked to the bank and being probed by prosecutors in the so-called Cum-Ex affair, according to people familiar with the matter. For CEO Christian Sewing, who’s trying to turn the tide at Germany’s biggest bank after years of painful missteps, the escalation couldn’t come at a more precarious time.
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-17/deutsche-bank-s-ties-to-cum-ex-scandal-ran-deep-in-prime-unit?srnd=premium-europe
It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand
our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a
revolution before tomorrow morning.
Henry Ford
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Today something
different. How many cosmologists can dance on the head of a pin?
Cosmologists Clash Over the Beginning of the Universe
In 1981, many of the world’s leading cosmologists gathered at the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, a vestige of the coupled lineages of science and theology located in an elegant villa in the gardens of the Vatican. Stephen Hawking chose the august setting to present what he would later regard as his most important idea: a proposal about how the universe could have arisen from nothing.
Before
Hawking’s talk, all cosmological origin stories, scientific or theological, had
invited the rejoinder, “What happened before that?” The Big Bang theory, for
instance—pioneered 50 years before Hawking’s lecture by the Belgian physicist
and Catholic priest Georges Lemaître, who later served as president of the
Vatican’s academy of sciences—rewinds the expansion of the universe back to a
hot, dense bundle of energy. But where did the initial energy come from?
The
Big Bang theory had other problems. Physicists understood that an expanding
bundle of energy would grow into a crumpled mess rather than the huge, smooth
cosmos that modern astronomers observe. In 1980, the year before Hawking’s
talk, the cosmologist Alan Guth realized that the Big Bang’s problems could be
fixed with an add-on: an initial, exponential growth spurt known as cosmic
inflation, which would have rendered the universe huge,
smooth, and flat before gravity had a chance to wreck it.
----- Hawking, in his brilliance, saw a way to end the
interminable groping backward in time: He proposed that there’s no end, or
beginning, at all. According to the
record of the Vatican conference, the Cambridge physicist, then 39 and
still able to speak with his own voice, told the crowd, “There ought to be
something very special about the boundary conditions of the universe, and what
can be more special than the condition that there is no boundary?”
The “no-boundary proposal,” which Hawking and his frequent
collaborator, James Hartle, fully formulated in a 1983 paper, envisions the cosmos
having the shape of a shuttlecock. Just as a shuttlecock has a diameter of zero
at its bottommost point and gradually widens on the way up, the universe, according
to the no-boundary proposal, smoothly expanded from a point of zero size.
Hartle and Hawking derived a formula describing the whole shuttlecock—the
so-called “wave function of the universe” that encompasses the entire past,
present, and future at once—making moot all contemplation of seeds of creation,
a creator, or any transition from a time before.
----- But two years ago, a paper by Turok, Job
Feldbrugge of the Perimeter Institute, and Jean-Luc
Lehners of the Max Planck Institute for Gravitational Physics in Germany
called the Hartle-Hawking proposal into question. The proposal is, of course,
only viable if a universe that curves out of a dimensionless point in the way
Hartle and Hawking imagined naturally grows into a universe like ours. Hawking
and Hartle argued that indeed it would—that universes with no boundaries will
tend to be huge, breathtakingly smooth, impressively flat, and expanding, just
like the actual cosmos. “The trouble with Stephen and Jim’s approach is it was
ambiguous,” Turok said—“deeply ambiguous.”
In their
2017 paper, published in Physical Review Letters, Turok and his
co-authors approached Hartle and Hawking’s no-boundary proposal with new
mathematical techniques that, in their view, make its predictions much more
concrete than before. “We discovered that it just failed miserably,” Turok
said. “It was just not possible quantum mechanically for a universe to start in
the way they imagined.” The trio checked their math and queried their
underlying assumptions before going public, but “unfortunately,” Turok said,
“it just seemed to be inescapable that the Hartle-Hawking proposal was a
disaster.”
More,
Much, much, more.
The real truth of the matter is, as you and I know, that a
financial element in the larger centers has owned the Government ever since the
days of Andrew Jackson.
Franklin D. Roosevelt
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May
DJIA: 24,815 +49 Down. NASDAQ: 7,453 +71 Down.
SP500: 2,752 +46 Down.
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