Thursday, 27 June 2019

A Coin Toss. Synthetic Double Options. Gold.


Baltic Dry Index. 1317 +37   Brent Crude 66.27

Never ending Brexit now October 31st, maybe. 
Nuclear Trump China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to November, maybe.

Meetings are indispensable when you don't want to do anything.

John Kenneth Galbraith

We are two days away from the end of the quarter and half year, classic dress up markets time. One day away from the start of the G-20 bash in Osaka Japan. Who will emerge bashed and who basher? Two days away from the great showdown between Presidents Xi and Trump. Who will emerge winner and who loser? Four days away from when President Trump can impose more 25 percent new tariffs on about 300 billion of Chinese exports to the USA.

In the runup to the two Presidents showdown, an increasingly rattled President Trump is all over the place in his comments. More desperate for a “win” than President Xi, President Xi isn’t facing re-election next year, President Trump proclaimed that Xi “want to make a deal. They want to make a deal more than I do.”

Below, a presidential one liner for all men.  A deal is on and a deal’s off. Place your bets accordingly. To this old dinosaur trader and bettor, coin toss bets rarely pay off. But if betting, a short term synthetic double option play on the US stock market seems about right. Who knows which side of President’s Trump’s mouth is telling the truth. But only one side can be right.

Trump says trade deal 'possible' with China's Xi, tariffs could be lower

June 26, 2019 / 1:42 PM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that a trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping was possible this weekend but he is prepared to impose U.S. tariffs on virtually all remaining Chinese imports if the two countries continue to disagree.

Trump, who departed for the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, on Wednesday, also raised the possibility that he may impose a lower, 10% duty on a $300 billion (£236.4 billion) list of Chinese imports, instead of the proposed 25% rate. 

Trump is expected to meet with Xi on Saturday in Osaka, a conversation that could revive stalled negotiations between the world’s two biggest economies or launch a much deeper, costlier trade war that would drag down global growth and roil financial markets.

“It’s absolutely possible. ... We have to get a good deal,” Trump said in an interview with Fox Business Network. “It’s possible that we’ll make a deal, but I’m also very happy where we are now.”

Relations between Washington and Beijing have spiralled downward since talks collapsed in May, when the United States accused China of reneging on pledges to reform its economy.

Trump said Chinese leaders “want to make a deal. They want to make a deal more than I do.”

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are due to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross also was added to the U.S. delegation at the last minute at Trump’s request, a senior U.S. official said at a Washington event where Ross had been scheduled to speak.

Some Chinese officials who were not previously part of China’s delegation were also applying for Japanese visas, an industry source briefed on the matter said, adding that this was a possible sign of momentum for the Trump-Xi meeting.

Shortly after Trump returns from the Osaka summit, he will be in a position to impose a 25% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese consumer goods from cellphones, laptop and tablet computers to tube socks and baby carriers.

A public comment period on the tariffs ends on July 2 following seven days of public hearings in which U.S. companies large and small begged to be spared from the tariffs and warned of hardships in shifting production out of China..
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Asian shares creep higher on hopes of Sino-U.S. trade truce

June 27, 2019 / 1:51 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian share markets turned higher on Thursday following a media report the United States and China have tentatively agreed to a truce in their trade war, ahead of a closely-watched meeting between the two nations this weekend.

The South China Morning Post (SCMP), citing sources, said in Washington and Beijing were laying out an agreement that would help avert the next round of tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports. 

On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said a trade deal with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping was possible this weekend though he was prepared to impose tariffs on virtually all remaining Chinese imports if talks fail.

“But the truce cake seems to have been baked,” the SCMP cited one of its sources as saying.

Hopes the world’s two biggest economies would finally reach an agreement were enough to cheer investors, sending MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 0.6%.

China led the gains with its blue-chip index up 1.4%. South Korea’s KOSPI index was up 0.6% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Japan’s Nikkei jumped 0.8%.

Relations between Washington and Beijing have spiralled downward since talks collapsed in May, when the United States accused China of reneging on pledges to reform its economy.

The ongoing trade war has already rattled investors who have ditched shares for the safety of bonds and gold this year. It has also prompted the U.S. Federal Reserve to pause its rate tightenings and, in fact, signal a cut as soon as next month.
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U.S. aims to restart China trade talks, will not accept conditions on tariff use

June 26, 2019 / 1:14 AM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States hopes to re-launch trade talks with China after President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping meet in Japan on Saturday, but Washington will not accept any conditions around the U.S. use of tariffs in the dispute, a senior administration official said on Tuesday.

Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on another $325 billion (256 billion pounds) of goods, covering nearly all the remaining Chinese imports into the United States - including consumer products such as cellphones, computers and clothing - if the meeting with Xi produces no progress in resolving a host of U.S. complaints around the way China does business. 

The two sides could agree not to impose new tariffs as a goodwill gesture to get negotiations going, the official said, but he said it was unclear if that would happen.

The United States was not willing to come to the Xi meeting with concessions, said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Washington wants Beijing to come back the table with the promises it withdrew before talks broke down, he said.

China has shown no softening in its position and said on Monday that both sides should make compromises in the trade talks and that a trade deal has to be beneficial for both countries.

The back-and-forth set up what could prove to be a tricky meeting between Trump and Xi at the Group of 20 summit meeting in Osaka. The session will be the first time they have met since trade talks between the world’s two largest economies broke down in May, when the United States accused China of reneging on reform pledges it made.
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Trump says he would impose additional tariffs on China - Fox Business

June 26, 2019 / 1:42 PM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he would impose additional tariffs on China if he did not reach a trade deal with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

“I would do additional tariffs, very substantial additional tariffs, if that doesn’t work, if we don’t make a deal,” Trump said in an interview with Fox Business Network.

He left open the possibility that the two leaders could make a deal to avert further tariffs at the G20 summit in Japan this weekend.

China and the United States have been embroiled in trade tensions marked by tit-for-tat tariffs but talks between the two countries broke down in May. Trump said in the interview China knows what the United States needs to have for a trade deal to go through.

Trump said if Washington was unable to reach a trade deal with Beijing, his plan was to reduce business with China. Asked about companies relocating production from China to Vietnam, he said Vietnam treated the United States even worse than China.

Europe Is Running Out of Options to Hold Back Trump’s Aggression

By Patrick Donahue and Jonathan Stearns
·        
The EU has little hard power to back up its measures on trade
·         Logic of Trump’s attacks still baffles leaders in Europe

As Donald Trump heads to a showdown with China’s Xi Jinping and the costs of his trade war start to become clear, the European Union is baffled by his determination to open a second front.

The U.S.’s estranged allies may not follow the logic of Trump’s offensive but they have become reconciled to persistent attacks from Washington, EU officials said. As Trump ramps up his effort to win a second term in 2020, they expect no letup. They are even getting used to fighting back.

“Should Trump get serious about his threats, we’re prepared,” Cecilia Malmstrom, the EU’s trade commissioner, told Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine this week. “Our list of counter measures is set.”

If talks at the Group of 20 meeting in Osaka and in the coming weeks fail to head off U.S. tariffs on Europe’s car industry, EU officials are confident that their response will be sharp enough to hit the president where it hurts.

Earlier levies on Harley Davidson motorcycles and bourbon whiskey specifically targeted Trump’s political base. Other measures against U.S. tech firms prompted members of Congress to write asking Brussels to back off, according to one official familiar with the contacts.

The problem is that Europeans can do little else.

The EU can hold its own in a trade dispute, but its locker is empty when it comes to hard-power tools needed at the sharp end of geopolitics. That means the EU has limited leverage to shape the U.S. agenda in hotspots like Syria, the Persian Gulf, or the South China Sea.

Part of the struggle for EU leaders is that they feel they would be natural allies with the Trump administration against China, one official said. They share many of his grievances over Chinese practices, even if they’d favor a more diplomatic approach to Beijing.

Trump’s attacks on China over unfair trade and investment practices and of the rise of Huawei Technologies Co. in ultra-fast telecommunications networks echo European reservations. But instead of forging a united front against the communist government in Beijing, Trump has taken the Europeans to task over an even longer list of complaints that go beyond trade to defense spending and energy.

“Europe treats us worse than China,” he said in an interview with Fox News Wednesday, reeling off a familiar list of complaints about German defense spending a new gas pipeline to Russia.

So will Europe be the target of his next trade offensive?

“Oh yeah,” the president said.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-27/europe-is-running-out-of-options-to-hold-back-trump-s-aggression?srnd=premium-europe

In other wealth and jobs destroying EUSSR news, the ECB is about to step up its competitive devaluation currency war. Poor continentals foolish enough to put their trust in the euro. If I didn’t know better, I’d say that the ECB, the Fed and the BOJ, are now deliberately re-incentivising the ownership of gold and silver. Is the long term plan the re-monetisation of gold?

Loophole may clear ECB's way to buying more state debt - sources

June 26, 2019 / 1:03 PM
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - An obscure clause in government bond contracts may help the European Central Bank clear a key hurdle to launching a fresh stimulus programme by allowing it to own even more government debt, according to central bank officials.

With the euro zone’s growth and inflation prospects dimming, ECB President Mario Draghi has strongly hinted at more monetary easing in the form of interest rate cuts or new asset purchases.

But after hoovering up 2 trillion euros (£1.8 trillion) worth of public sector bonds in the past four years, the ECB has precious little room for buying more, if it is to respect a self-imposed ban on owning more than a third of each country’s debt.

This so-called issuer limit is designed to prevent the ECB from becoming a “blocking minority” if a country applies for a debt restructuring and its bondholders have to vote on it.

This limit already looms large in smaller jurisdictions such as Finland, the Netherlands and Portugal, curtailing the ECB’s firepower if it launches a new programme.

But under possible solutions studied by staff of the euro zone’s 19 national central banks, this constraint may be circumvented by stripping central banks of their voting rights, two sources familiar with the matter said.

This would be done through a clause, known as “disenfranchisement”, which excludes bondholders directly connected to the issuer of a bond from votes.

That way, the ECB and the national central banks that carried out the bulk of the government bond purchases under the previous programme could go over the issuer limit and still avoid getting involved in any vote on debt restructuring.

An ECB spokesman declined to comment.
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Finally, truth or deception on Iran? GB’s foreign minister wouldn’t lie to Parliament, would he? Is the American War Party about to start another War?

Never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied.

Bismarck.

UK foreign minister Hunt says cannot envisage joining U.S.-led war with Iran

ReutersJune 25, 2019
LONDON, June 25 (Reuters) - Britain does not expect the United States to request that the United Kingdom joins a war with Iran and London would be unlikely to agree to join such a conflict, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said on Tuesday.

"The U.S. is our closest ally, we talk to them the whole time, we consider any requests that they say carefully, but I cannot envisage any situation where they request or we agree to any moves to go to war," Hunt told parliament.

"The message we are sending with our partners in the European Union particularly the French and the Germans is that with respect to Iran's nuclear programme, this is a crucial week.

"It is absolutely essential that they stick to that deal in its entirety for it to preserve and for us to have a nuclear free middle east," Hunt said.

Trump threatens 'obliteration,' Iran calls White House 'mentally retarded'

June 25, 2019 / 5:10 AM
WASHINGTON/DUBAI (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump threatened on Tuesday to obliterate parts of Iran if it attacked “anything American,” in a new war of words with Iran which condemned fresh U.S. sanctions on Tehran as “mentally retarded.” 

But Trump later left the door open for talks, saying that Iran should speak to the United States “peaceably” to ease tensions and potentially lift U.S. economic sanctions.

The U.S. president on Monday signed an executive order imposing additional, largely symbolic, sanctions against Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior figures, with punitive measures against Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif expected later this week.

Iran shot down a U.S. drone last week and Trump said he had called off a retaliatory air strike with minutes to spare, saying too many people would have been killed. It would have been the first time the United States had bombed the Islamic Republic in four decades of mutual hostility.

In rhetoric similar to the kind of harsh words he used to aim at North Korea, Trump tweeted: “Any attack by Iran on anything American will be met with great and overwhelming force. In some areas, overwhelming will mean obliteration.”

In a televised address on Tuesday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the new sanctions against Khamenei would have no practical impact because the top cleric had no assets abroad.

Rouhani, a pragmatist who won two elections on promises to open Iran up to the world, said the White House’s actions were “mentally retarded” - an insult that other Iranian officials have used in the past about Trump, but a departure from Rouhani’s own comparatively measured tone over the years.

“Tehran’s strategic patience does not mean we have fear,” said Rouhani, who with his cabinet runs Iran’s day-to-day affairs while Khamenei, in power since 1989, is the country’s ultimate authority.
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Finally, 69 years ago this week the Korean War started. It has never officially ended.

Korean War Timeline

----·  August 15, 1948

The Republic of Korea (South Korea) is established. Less than a month later the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) is established.

·  January 12, 1950

In a speech to the National Press Club, U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson outlines a U.S. Pacific defense posture that includes Japan and the Philippines but does not explicitly include Korea. In fact, he states that, “so far as the military security of other areas in the Pacific is concerned, it must be clear that no person can guarantee these areas against military attack.”

·  January 17, 1950

North Korean leader Kim Il-Sung proposes the “liberation” of South Korea to Soviet officials. Weeks of telegram exchanges between Beijing, Moscow, and P'yŏngyang follow, and by early spring Kim has secured assurances of support for the invasion from Soviet premier Joseph Stalin and Chinese leader Mao Zedong.

·  June 25, 1950

A massive artillery barrage from the North signals the beginning of the Korean War. Roughly 100,000 North Korean troops pour across the 38th parallel, and, although South Korean forces are driven back, they retire in good order.

·  June 27, 1950

The United Nations Security Council adopts Resolution 83, authorizing UN member states to provide military assistance to South Korea. The Soviets, who could have vetoed the resolution, are boycotting the proceedings because the Nationalist government on Taiwan still occupies China’s seat on the Security Council. Seoul falls the following day.

·  September 12, 1950

North Korean troops reach their farthest point of advance. Although thousands of UN troops have arrived to reinforce South Korea, months of fighting have reduced the area under their control to a 5,000-square-mile rectangle centered on the critical southeastern port of Pusan. By the time the North Korean invasion force reaches the “Pusan Perimeter,” its strength has been nearly cut in half and it is almost entirely lacking in armor.

·  September 15, 1950

X Corps, a force led by U.S. Maj. Gen. Edward M. Almond, stages an audacious amphibious landing at Inch’ŏn, some 150 miles behind enemy lines. The plan, conceived by UN commander Gen. Douglas MacArthur, is an unqualified success; 10 days later Seoul is liberated.
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Be polite; write diplomatically; even in a declaration of war one observes the rules of politeness

Bismarck.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner


The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, China hits back at Canada. A real food problem, or more retaliation for Canada playing patsy for Trump’s Huawei attacks? Both?
Meanwhile, despite a “security issue,” US companies have resumed trading with Huawei again.

China halts Canadian meat exports over fake certificates

Michel COMTE, AFPJune 26, 2019
Ottawa (AFP) - China asked Canada on Tuesday to suspend all meat exports after discovering bogus veterinary health certificates attached to a batch of pork, while Canadian federal police launched a criminal probe.

The forgery allegations against Frigo Royal Inc. come amid frosty relations between the two nations following Canada's arrest of a senior Chinese telecoms executive on a US warrant and China's detention of two Canadian nationals in apparent retaliation.

In days, the US and China could also seek to relaunch talks to settle a trade dispute that may be key to resolving the Canada-China row.

China's embassy in Ottawa said a customs investigation -- launched after the discovery of traces of a banned feed additive -- revealed that up to 188 forged documents had been provided to Chinese officials.

"In order to protect the safety of Chinese consumers, China has taken urgent preventive measures and requested the Canadian government to suspend the issuance of certificates for meat exported to China since June 25," it said on its website.

"We hope the Canadian side would attach great importance to this incident, complete the investigation as soon as possible and take effective measures to ensure the safety of food exported to China in a more responsible manner," it added.

A Canadian government official confirmed that the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) had been called in to investigate.

Meanwhile, according to Agriculture Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) has reached out to its Chinese counterpart for more information about the forgery allegations.

In a statement, she said the CFIA "has identified a problem with false export certificates that could affect exports of pork and beef products to China."

- 'National interest' -

The agency, she added, "has taken steps to remedy the situation" while continuing to work with industry partners and Chinese authorities.

China is Canada's third-largest export market for pork.

Bibeau noted that this issue "does not affect export certificates to other countries."

The official Xinhua news agency earlier this month said customs officials in the eastern city of Nanjing had found that recent pork shipments from Frigo Royal contained Ractopamine.

The feed additive, which boosts the growth of animals, is widely used in the United States but banned in the European Union and China.

Chinese customs this month increased inspections of Canadian imports in what observers said was more payback for the December arrest of Huawei chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou on a US extradition request related to alleged Iran sanctions violations.
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U.S. Companies Find Legal Ways Around Trump’s Huawei Blacklist

By Ian King and Jenny Leonard
26 June 2019, 04:08 BST Updated on 26 June 2019, 07:13 BST
American technology companies have resumed selling certain products to Huawei Technologies Co. after concluding there are legal ways to work with the Chinese telecom giant in spite of its inclusion on a Trump Administration blacklist.

Micron Technology Inc., the largest U.S. maker of computer memory chips, said on Tuesday that it had started shipping some components to Huawei after its lawyers studied export restrictions. Intel Corp., the largest microprocessor maker, has also begun selling to Huawei again, according to a person familiar with the matter. It’s not clear how many other suppliers have reached the same conclusion.

The U.S. Commerce Department added Huawei last month to what’s known as an entity list, a move designed to bar the Chinese company from buying American components and software. The Trump Administration said Huawei helps Beijing in espionage and represents a security threat -- charges the company denies. Officials at Commerce and the White House are frustrated that companies have resumed Huawei shipments, according to another person familiar with the matter. The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The chipmakers are taking advantage of certain exceptions to the export restrictions. Even when companies have headquarters in the U.S., they may be able, through ownership of overseas subsidiaries and operations, to classify their technology as foreign, according to Cross Research analyst Steven Fox. If less than 25% of the technology in a chip originates in the U.S., for example, then it may not be covered by the ban, under current rules.

“It took them weeks to figure this out,” Fox said. “What they did was look at the laws and the rules and applied them to their business.”
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Politics is the art of choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable.

John Kenneth Galbraith


Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Research reveals exotic quantum states in double-layer graphene

Date: June 25, 2019

Source: Columbia University School of Engineering and Applied Science

Summary: Researchers have demonstrated previously unknown states of matter that arise in double-layer stacks of graphene, a two-dimensional nanomaterial. These new states, known as the fractional quantum Hall effect, arise from the complex interactions of electrons both within and across graphene layers.

Researchers from Brown and Columbia Universities have demonstrated previously unknown states of matter that arise in double-layer stacks of graphene, a two-dimensional nanomaterial. These new states, known as the fractional quantum Hall effect, arise from the complex interactions of electrons both within and across graphene layers.

"The findings show that stacking 2D materials together in close proximity generates entirely new physics," said Jia Li, assistant professor of physics at Brown, who initiated this work while a post-doc at Columbia working with Cory Dean, professor of physics, and Jim Hone, professor of mechanical engineering. "In terms of materials engineering, this work shows that these layered systems could be viable in creating new types of electronic devices that take advantage of these new quantum Hall states."

The research is published in the journal Nature Physics.

Importantly, says Hone, Wang Fong-Jen Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Columbia Engineering, several of these new quantum Hall states "may be useful in making fault-tolerant quantum computers."

The Hall effect emerges when a magnetic field is applied to a conducting material in a perpendicular direction to a current flow. The magnetic field causes the current to deflect, creating a voltage in the transverse direction, called the Hall voltage. The strength of the Hall voltage increases with the strength of the magnetic field. The quantum version of the Hall effect was first discovered in experiments performed in 1980 at low temperatures and strong magnetic fields. The experiments showed that rather than increasing smoothly with magnetic field strength, the Hall voltage increases in step-wise (or quantized) fashion. These steps are integer multiples of fundamental constants of nature and are entirely independent of the physical makeup of the material used in the experiments. 
The discovery was awarded the 1985 Nobel Prize in Physics.
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 Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite.

John Kenneth Galbraith

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May

DJIA: 24,815 +49 Down. NASDAQ: 7,453 +71 Down. SP500: 2,752 +46 Down. 

The S&P has reversed again to down after only one month. Time for the Fed to step in again to buy stocks.

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