Baltic Dry Index. 1062
-18 Brent
Crude 61.70
Never ending Brexit
now October 31st, maybe.
Nuclear Trump
China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war
postponed to November, maybe.
Good evening.
I want to talk to you tonight about a serious national problem,
a problem we must all face together in the months and years ahead.
As America has grown and prospered in recent years, our energy
demands have begun to exceed available supplies. In recent months, we have taken
many actions to increase supplies and to reduce consumption. But even with our best
efforts, we knew that a period of temporary shortages was inevitable.
Unfortunately, our expectations for this winter have now been
sharply altered by the recent conflict in the Middle East. Because of that war,
most of the Middle Eastern oil producers have reduced overall pro-duction and cut
off their shipments of oil to the United States. By the end of this month, more
than 2 million barrels a day of oil we expected to import into the United States
will no longer be available.
President Nixon. November 7, 1973.
The big question
facing markets this Friday and weekend, is who attacked oil shipping in the
Gulf of Oman yesterday. America gas quickly blamed Iran who in turn deny the
allegation, suggesting a false flag operation, without naming any suspects.
At present it’s
impossible to know what really happened in the attacks, originally reported as
torpedo attacks, or whether there will be any other attacks in the region over
the weekend.
Whoever was
responsible, it now makes war between America and its regional allies against
Iran, more likely, whatever the Iranians say. But a war in the region,
threatens to disrupt 20+ percent of global oil supplies.
A 1973-1974 style oil
shock would be a likely outcome. If it happens, a new global recession follows.
A stock market crash follows too, unless stock markets get closed as a
precaution. But that just creates as many problems as it solves.
Russia, Venezuela,
Canada, GB and Norway would be the likely first oil winners, followed by all
the USA profitless oil frackers. The big problem would be ending the new war before
the onset of the next northern hemisphere winter. Or at least getting most of
the Saudi, Iraqi, Kuwaiti, and Qatari energy exports moving again before winter.
Below, our world on
the cusp of a new energy crisis. Better fill up the car petrol tanks now,
despite “experts” saying there’s no need yet to do so. Better safe than sorry.
U.S. blames Iran for tanker attacks in Gulf of Oman, Iran rejects assertion
June 13, 2019 /
7:48 AM
DUBAI/WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - The United States blamed Iran for attacks on two oil tankers in the
Gulf of Oman on Thursday that drove up oil prices and raised concerns about a
new U.S.-Iranian confrontation, but Tehran bluntly denied the allegation.
It was not immediately clear what befell the Norwegian-owned Front
Altair or the Japanese-owned Kokuka Courageous, which both experienced
explosions, forcing crews to abandon ship and leave the vessels adrift in waters
between Gulf Arab states and Iran.
One source said the blast on the Front Altair, which caught fire and
sent a huge plume of smoke into the air, may have been caused by a magnetic
mine.
The firm that chartered the Kokuka Courageous tanker said it was hit by
a suspected torpedo, but a person with knowledge of the matter said torpedoes
were not used.
A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that
the United States had video showing Iran’s military removing what Washington
believes was an unexploded limpet mine from the side of the Japanese tanker.
---- The United States, which has accused Iran or its proxies of carrying out a May 12 attack on four tankers off the United Arab Emirates’ coast as well as May 14 drone strikes on two Saudi oil-pumping stations, squarely blamed Iran for Thursday’s attacks.
"It is the assessment of the United States government that the Islamic Republic of Iran is responsible for the attacks that occurred in the Gulf of Oman today," U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo here told reporters.
Pompeo did not provide explicit evidence to back up the U.S. assertion.
More
Asian markets mostly lower as global tensions rise on apparent oil-tanker attacks
By Marketwatch
and Associated
Press Published: June 14, 2019 1:17
a.m. ET
Asian markets traded mostly lower trading Friday as
geopolitical tensions rose after apparent attacks on two tankers near the
Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed Iran, through Iran rejected those claims, as tensions grew in the Persian Gulf. Late Thursday, the U.S. said it had evidence that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard removed an unexploded mine from a tanker, suggesting Iran tried to hide evidence of its involvement.
Benchmark U.S. crude CLN19, +0.33% rose 14 cents to $52.41. It rose 2.2% to settle at $52.28 a barrel Thursday. Brent crude oil BRNQ19, +0.69% , the international standard, gained 37 cents to $61.70 a barrel, after rising 2.2% on Thursday.
Geopolitical tensions were simmering elsewhere, as Hong Kong remained on edge in the aftermath of violent clashes between police and protesters earlier this week. Protests against a proposed extradition law continued, though were noticeably more subdued, while the prospect of further protests over the weekend loomed large.
And there were fresh threats from the U.S. that President Donald Trump may raise tariffs against China if President Xi Jinping doesn’t meet with him at the G-20 summit in Japan later this month. On Thursday, a group of American companies, including Walmart Inc. WMT, -0.16% and Target Corp. TGT, +0.05% , sent a letter to Trump urging him make a trade deal and end the tariff war.
Japan’s Nikkei NIK, +0.32% rose 0.3% while South Korea’s Kospi 180721, -0.44% retreated 0.5%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index HSI, -0.54% fell 0.5% and the Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -0.31% was down 0.3%. Benchmark indexes in Taiwan Y9999, -0.33% Singapore STI, -0.05% and Indonesia JAKIDX, -0.36% were flat to lower. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, +0.12% rose slightly.
----Gains in energy and internet companies helped drive stocks broadly higher on Wall Street overnight, snapping a two-day losing streak for the market in an otherwise choppy week of trading.
Investors have been searching for direction as they cautiously await any new developments on the global trade war between the U.S. and China. Any continued escalations could crimp global economic growth and halt what is poised to be the longest economic expansion in U.S. history.
The market is also looking ahead to next week’s meeting of policyholders of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell set off a market rally after he signaled that the central bank is willing to cut interest rates to help stabilize the economy if the trade war between Washington and Beijing starts to crimp growth.
More
Escalation in Mideast oil attacks could add $7 per barrel to price
By Myra P.
Saefong Published: June 13, 2019
2:55 p.m. ET
The second alleged attack on tankers near the Strait of
Hormuz in roughly a month has heightened concerns about oil security in the
region and tensions between the U.S. and Iran, leaving at least one analyst
suggesting an escalation in incidents could add $7 to the price per barrel.Other analysts, including those watching gasoline prices, stress that it’s too soon for motorists to be alarmed about a surge in pump prices.
Two oil tankers near the key shipping choke point between the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman were apparently attacked Thursday, leaving one ablaze and adrift, according to Associated Press. That followed damage to two tankers from Saudi Arabia, and one vessel each from Norway and United Arab Emirates, about a month ago that was blamed on “sabotage” attacks, as well as armed-drone attacks in May that halted pumping at a key Saudi oil pipeline.
The latest attack in the Gulf “definitely
opens a new chapter and new worry going forward for at least the next several
weeks,” said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
“Targeting oil tankers that belong to politically and militarily weak
countries, laden with only Saudi or Emirati oil, in the least protected area of
the region, at a specific time in a cloudy weather, is not a coincidence,”
independent energy expert, Anas Alhajji, a former chief economist at NGP Energy
Capital Management, told MarketWatch. “These are sophisticated attacks that are
planned by state actors. The level of information and planning needed cannot be
done by individuals or independent groups.”
One of the vessels involved Thursday has been preliminarily identified
as involved as the MT Front Altair, a Marshall Islands-flagged crude-oil
tanker, the AP reported, while the other is operated by a Japan-based company,
according to The Wall Street Journal.
“The irony is, not only Saudi and UAE oil is targeted, but even those in
Asia who decided to stop importing from Iran,” said Alhajji. “These attacks
will not only raise the political and insurance premium, they will lower
supplies too,” so there’s a “triple-layer impact.”
It’s difficult to measure just how much of a price impact this will have
on oil, but in the event of further escalation, prices may climb as much as $7
a barrel, Alhajji said.
Many uncertainties prevail, however. “It remains unclear who the actors
are behind the recent spate of tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman,” said Cailin
Birch, global economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit. “Iranian authorities
will continue to deny responsibility, either directly or indirectly through
proxies. Houthi rebels fighting Saudi forces in Yemen are also suspected of
being behind the attacks.”
“Given the lack of clear information, there is a risk that the U.S.
government will interpret the recent attacks as a potential sign of Iranian
aggression in the region; the national security advisor, John Bolton, indicated
as much after the attacks that occurred last month,” she said. “U.S.-Iran
tensions are already running high as Iran’s deadline to stop complying with
some aspects of its nuclear agreement, unless European countries help it to
maintain exports, approaches in the next 30 days.”
For now, however, oil prices have been paring back some of their earlier
gains Thursday to trade off the session’s best levels.
The latest attacks “may fall off the radar, but senses are definitely
heightened for now,” said DeHaan. This isn’t likely to have a lasting price
impact at this point, though “as we learn more in the days ahead, there could
be some shifts to that.”
More
Oil Tanker Insurance Costs to Jump After Gulf Attacks
By Julian Lee, Alex Longley and Will Hadfield
13 June 2019, 15:51 BST Updated on 14 June 2019,
03:36 BST
·
Shipping trade groups express grave concern
about growing risk
·
Some ship owners may try to avoid Persian Gulf,
broker says
The cost of insuring tankers to ship Middle East crude will increase after a second spate of attacks on vessels in the region in just over a month.
Two oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday, just 32 days after four other carriers were targeted nearby. The region was designated as a listed area after those incidents, a classification that gives underwriters room to charge more.
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-13/tanker-insurance-costs-to-jump-after-gulf-attacks-as-owners-fret?srnd=premium-europe
In other news, the trade and economic warfare wars continue to escalate. Goldman posits Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google as the next IBM.
China says won't yield to any U.S. pressure over trade
June 13, 2019 /
9:06 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s commerce ministry said on Thursday Beijing
will not yield to any “maximum pressure” from Washington, and any attempt by
the United States to force China into accepting a trade deal will fail.
China will not make concessions on matters of principle, ministry
spokesman Gao Feng told reporters at a regular briefing.
Trade talks between the world’s two largest economies fell apart in May.
U.S. officials said China had watered down commitments it made on issues such
as stopping intellectual property theft.
Asked about U.S. President Donald Trump’s accusation that China reneged
on its promises, Gao said: “Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.”
Huawei files to trademark mobile OS around the world after U.S. ban
June 12, 2019 /
8:09 PM
LIMA/SHANGHAI
(Reuters) - China’s Huawei has applied to trademark its “Hongmeng” operating
system (OS) in at least nine countries and Europe, data from a U.N. body shows,
in a sign it may be deploying a back-up plan in key markets as U.S. sanctions
threaten its business model.
The move comes after the Trump administration put Huawei on a blacklist
last month that barred it from doing business with U.S. tech companies such as
Alphabet Inc, whose Android OS is used in Huawei’s phones.
Since then, Huawei - the world’s biggest maker of telecoms network gear
- has filed for a Hongmeng trademark in countries such as Cambodia, Canada,
South Korea and New Zealand, data from the U.N. World Intellectual Property
Organization (WIPO) shows.
It also filed an application in Peru on May 27, according to the
country’s anti-trust agency Indecopi.
Huawei has a back-up OS in case it is cut off from U.S.-made software,
Richard Yu, CEO of the firm’s consumer division, told German newspaper Die Welt
in an interview earlier this year.
The firm, also the world’s second-largest maker of smartphones, has not
yet revealed details about its OS.
Its applications to trademark the OS show Huawei wants to use “Hongmeng”
for gadgets ranging from smartphones, portable computers to robots and car
televisions.
At home, Huawei applied for a Hongmeng trademark in August last year and
received a nod last month, according to a filing on China’s intellectual
property administration’s website.
Huawei declined to comment.
According to WIPO data, the earliest Huawei applications to trademark
the Hongmeng OS outside China were made on May 14 to the European Union
Intellectual Property Office and South Korea, or right after the United States
flagged it would stick Huawei on an export blacklist.
Huawei has come under mounting scrutiny for over a year, led by U.S.
allegations that “back doors” in its routers, switches and other gear could allow
China to spy on U.S. communications.
More
History shows that Big Tech antitrust suits would be a sell signal, Goldman economists warn
By Jon Swartz Published: June 12, 2019 2:09 p.m. ET
Companies targeted with antitrust suits have seen stocks decline, sometimes for decades, analysis shows as Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google reportedly face federal inquiries
Investors might want to think twice before dismissing potential antitrust probes of Big Tech as a temporary concern.When reports circulated earlier this month that federal regulators were considering a crackdown on Alphabet Inc. GOOGL, +0.58% GOOG, +0.59% Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, +0.73% Apple Inc. AAPL, +0.39% and Facebook Inc. FB, +0.41% the tech sector slid. The next day, though, analysts said not to worry, reasoning that any investigations would take years to unfold and leave the companies largely unscathed, and stocks rebounded.
Goldman Sachs economists offered a more in-depth analysis Tuesday that focused on what has happened in the past. They warned that so-called “superstar” firms with unusually broad market reach and influence have historically suffered lower share valuations after being targeted by antitrust enforcement — sometimes for decades.
For more: Big Tech was built by the same type of antitrust actions that could now tear it down
”While the impact of regulation on today’s stocks will be case-dependent, similarities among historical outcomes suggest that investors should reduce exposure to any stock that becomes subject to an antitrust lawsuit,” Goldman analyst Ryan Hammond wrote. “In the past, stock valuations and share prices declined between lawsuit filing and resolution.”
Two examples stand out.
The stock valuation of Microsoft Corp. MSFT, +0.39% fell when the Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit against the software giant in 1998, and lagged behind other tech companies for years. They recovered after the 2011 expiration of a consent decree that formalized regulatory oversight, according to the Goldman note.
Similarly, International Business Machines Corp.’s IBM, +0.27% valuation sunk after the Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit against it in 1969 and remained undervalued even after the lawsuit was dropped as regulatory scrutiny lingered, Goldman Sachs said.
The specter of the same scenario could impact the “superstar” firms of today, Goldman cautions. Shares of Facebook and Google are down at least 10% in the past month.
More
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/history-shows-that-big-tech-antitrust-suits-would-be-a-sell-signal-goldman-economists-warn-2019-06-12?mod=mw_theo_homepage
We must, therefore, face up to a very stark fact: We are heading
toward the most acute shortages of energy since World War IL Our supply of petroleum
this winter will be at least 10 percent short of our anticipated demands, and it
could fall short by as much as 17 percent.
President Nixon. November 7, 1973.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
No crooks today, they’ll be back in droves next week. Today, as a
service to our northern hemisphere early risers, getting ready for the coming
solstices, northern and southern.
Earliest sunrises before summer solstice
Posted by Bruce McClure in Tonight | June 13, 2019
At mid-northern latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, your earliest
sunrises of the year happen around mid-June. That’s despite the fact that the
summer solstice – and the year’s longest day – are still about a week away. And
if you live at middle latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, your earliest
sunsets take place around now, even though the winter solstice – your shortest
day – isn’t for another week.
For the Northern Hemisphere: Even if you’re not an early
riser, this is a super month for an early morning walk. The dawn light is
beautiful at this time of year.
For the Southern Hemisphere: If you’re someone who relishes
the day’s light, as many do, you’ll be glad to know the sunsets will soon be
shifting later!
The exact date of earliest sunrise (and earliest sunset) varies with latitude. At 40 degrees north latitude – the latitude of, say, Philadelphia in Pennsylvania – the earliest sunrise of the year will happen on June 14. For that same latitude, the latest sunset of the year will fall on or near June 27. Meanwhile, the longest day of the year – the day containing the greatest amount of daylight, overall – comes on the solstice on June 21.
So it is for other Northern Hemisphere latitudes. The dates of earliest sunrise and latest sunset don’t coincide exactly with the solstice. Appreciably south of Philadelphia’s latitude, the earliest sunrise has already come and gone (in late May or early June) and the latest sunset occurs at a later date (sometimes as late as July). In Hawaii, for instance, the earliest sunrise precedes the June solstice by about two weeks, and the latest sunset comes about two weeks after. Farther north, the earliest sunrise and latest sunset happen closer to the June solstice. Check it out at your latitude, using links on our almanac page.
The earliest sunrises come before the summer solstice because the day is more than 24 hours long at this time of the year. In the Southern Hemisphere, the earliest sunsets of the year come before the winter solstice for the same reason.
In
June, the day (as measured by successive returns of the midday sun) is nearly
1/4 minute longer than 24 hours. Hence, the midday sun (solar noon) comes later
by the clock on the June
solstice than it does one week before. Therefore, the sunrise
and sunset times also come later by the clock, as the tables below help to
explain.
---- The primary reason for the earliest sunrise preceding the summer solstice (and the earliest sunset preceding the winter solstice) is the inclination of the Earth’s rotational axis. The earliest sunrise or sunset would take place before the solstice even if the Earth went around the sun in a circular orbit.
However, the Earth’s elliptical orbit does affect the severity of the phenomenon. At the June solstice, Earth in its orbit is rather close to aphelion – its farthest point from the sun – which lessens the effect. At the December solstice, Earth is rather close to perihelion – its closest point to the sun – which accentuates it.
At middle latitudes, the earliest sunrise/sunset comes about one week before the June summer/winter solstice, and the latest sunset/sunrise about one week after the June solstice.
Yet, at the other end of the year, at middle latitudes, the earliest sunset/sunrise comes about two weeks before the December winter/summer solstice, and the latest sunrise/sunset about two weeks after the December solstice.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Graphene and 2-D Materials Market: Future Opportunities, Production/Demand Analysis & Outlook To 2024
Posted On: June
13, 2019
A comprehensive analysis of the Graphene and 2-D Materials
Market including market sizing, market share by competitor, market share by
distribution channel, drivers, restraints, product pricing trends, industry
quotations, company profiles and market forecasts to 2024 for global market.Look insights of Global Graphene and 2-D Materials industry market research report at https://www.pioneerreports.com/report/315503
About Graphene and 2-D Materials Industry
Global Graphene and 2-D Materials market is projected to reach CAGR of XX% in the forecast period 2019 to 2024. The new market report contains data for historic years 2017, the base year of calculation is 2018 and the forecast period is 2019 to 2029.
The overviews, SWOT analysis and strategies of each vendor in the Graphene and 2-D Materials market provide understanding about the market forces and how those can be exploited to create future opportunities.
Key Players in this Graphene and 2-D Materials market are:–
- XG Science
Angstron Materials
Vorbeck Materials
Applied Graphene Materials
NanoXplore
Huagao
Cambridge Nanosystems
Grafen
Sixth Element
Knano
Morsh
Important application areas of Graphene and 2-D Materials are also assessed on the basis of their performance. Market predictions along with the statistical nuances presented in the report render an insightful view of the Graphene and 2-D Materials market. The market study on Global Graphene and 2-D Materials Market 2018 report studies present as well as future aspects of the Graphene and 2-D Materials Market primarily based upon factors on which the companies participate in the market growth, key trends and segmentation analysis.
More
Another weekend and an
uncertain weekend at that. If Iran did it, what will President Trump do? If
Iran didn’t do it, who did, and why do they want war between the USA and Iran?
Have a great weekend everyone, and remember to to keep the car fully topped up.
In the short run,
this course means
that we must
use less energy-that
means less heat,
less electricity, less
gasoline. In the
long run, it
means that we must
develop new sources
of energy which will
give us the
capacity to meet
our needs without
relying on any
foreign nation.
President Nixon. November 7, 1973.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May
DJIA: 24,815 +49 Down. NASDAQ: 7,453 +71 Down.
SP500: 2,752 +46 Down.
The S&P has reversed again to down after only one month. Time for
the Fed to step in again to buy stocks.
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