Baltic Dry Index. 1103
+07 Brent
Crude 61.10
Never ending Brexit
now October 31st, maybe.
Nuclear Trump
Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed
to November, maybe.
They
don’t ring a bell at the top.
Wall
Street Adage.
Today, more worrying
signs that the next recession may already be here, just don’t tell the bean
counters firmly fixated on the rear view mirror. Full credit to Australia’s
central bankers for trying to get ahead of a massively slowing global economy.
Still with China as their main trading partner, was it the wisest thing to join
in America’s economic warfare on Huawei?
Below, a world slowly
heading into, and talking itself into recession. Trump’s trade wars merely add
grease and oil to our downward slope. Even if the Trump cowed Federal Reserve cut
their interest rate back to zero again, sentiment, and the regulators and
climate changers, seem to have us in a one way downward street.
Did our stock markets
just complete a dreaded triple top head and shoulders? Is it finally come-uppance
time in technology?
Asian shares fall as weak data inflames growth fears
June 4, 2019 /
2:37 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters)
- Asian shares fell on Tuesday, following a volatile Wall Street session as
weak economic indicators and an intensifying Sino-U.S. trade war inflamed
concerns about global growth, supporting safe-haven assets such as bonds.
Investor focus has shifted to monetary policy this week with Australia’s
central bank all but certain to cut interest rates to a fresh low at its
meeting on Tuesday and India also tipped to ease on Thursday.
Comments from the Federal Reserve on Monday, meanwhile, raised
expectations the U.S. central bank is moving closer to a rate cut, as did a
closely watched U.S. factory survey.
“Unless there’s a circuit breaker, and it may come in terms of a Fed
cut, or it may come in terms of more Chinese stimulus or the European Central
Bank later this week...equity prices and bond rates are going to continue to go
lower,” said Greg McKenna, strategist at McKenna Macro.
The ECB holds its next policy meeting on Thursday and is expected to
keep settings unchanged though there is growing speculation it could shift to a
more dovish footing.
Losses across Asian equity markets on Tuesday followed falls on Wall Street overnight that saw the Nasdaq drop into correction territory. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was down 0.3%, after earlier rising as much as 0.18%.
The broad index was pulled lower by Chinese shares. China's blue-chip CSI300 index .CSI300 was 1.17% lower, and the Hang Seng .HSI lost 0.65%.
Seoul's Kospi .KS11 gave up 0.16%.
Underscoring slowdown concerns, U.S. manufacturing growth eased in May to its weakest pace in more than two-and-a-half years, defying expectations for a modest rebound.
Hostile rhetoric between Washington and Beijing continued, on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration said that China was pursuing a “blame game” in recent public statements.
Adding to broader investor worries are fears that U.S. antitrust regulators could target Alphabet, Facebook, Apple and Amazon.
News of U.S. government plans to investigate the tech giants dragged down tech shares on Monday, driving the Nasdaq .IXIC 1.61% lower to 7,333.02. The drop took the index more than 10% lower than its May 3 closing record.
More
Global recession fears grow as manufacturing shrinks across Asia
June 3, 2019 /
5:01 AM
HONG KONG
(Reuters) - Factory activity contracted in most Asian countries last month as
an escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing raised fears of a global
economic downturn and heaped pressure on policymakers in the region and beyond
to roll out more stimulus.
Such growth indicators are likely to deteriorate further in coming
months as higher trade tariffs take their toll on global commerce and further
dent business and consumer sentiment leading to job losses and delays in
investment decisions.
Some economists predict a world recession and a renewed race to the
bottom on interest rates if trade tensions fail to ease at a Group of 20 summit
in Osaka, Japan at the end of June, when presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping
could meet.
In China, Asia’s economic heartbeat, the Caixin/Markit Manufacturing
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed modest expansion at 50.2, offering
investors some near-term relief after an official gauge on Friday showed
contraction.
The outlook, however, remained grim as output growth slipped, factory
prices stalled and businesses were the least optimistic on production since the
survey series began in April 2012.
PMIs were below the 50-point mark separating contraction from expansion
in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan, came below expectations in Vietnam
and improved slightly in the Philippines.
“The additional shock from the escalated trade tensions is not going to
be good for global trade and if demand in the U.S., China and Europe continues
to soften, which is very likely, it will bode ill for Asia as a whole,” said
Aidan Yao, senior emerging markets economist at AXA Investment Managers.
“In terms of the monetary policy response, almost everywhere the race is
going to be to the downside.”
Central banks in
Australia and India are expected to cut rates this week, with others around the
world seen following suit in coming weeks and months. HSBC economist Jingyang
Chen said the PMI figures could mean “Beijing will double down on easing for
the private corporate sector.”
More
World's biggest firms foresee $1 trillion climate cost hit
June 4, 2019 /
5:15 AM
LONDON (Reuters) -
More than 200 of the world’s largest listed companies forecast that climate
change could cost them a combined total of almost $1 trillion (£789.7 billion),
with much of the pain due in the next five years, according to a report
published on Tuesday.
Even so, the findings by charity CDP suggested many companies still
underestimated the dangers as scientists warn that earth’s climate system is on
course to hit catastrophic tipping points without rapid cuts in carbon
emissions.
“Most companies still have a long way to go in terms of properly
assessing climate risk,” said Nicolette Bartlett, CDP’s director of climate change,
who authored the report.
Founded in the early 2000s, CDP - formerly known as Carbon Disclosure
Project - is a respected voice in a growing coalition of pressure groups, fund
managers, central bankers and politicians who believe global warming poses a
systemic risk to the financial system.
By pushing chief executives to confront risks to their operations,
advocates of greater disclosure hope to spur enough investment in cleaner
industries to cut carbon emissions in time to meet global climate goals.
In its latest study, CDP analysed survey data from 215 of the largest
companies, ranging from Apple and Microsoft to Unilever, UBS, Nestle, China
Mobile, Infosys, Sony and BHP.
The companies anticipated a total of $970 billion in extra costs due to
factors including hotter temperatures, chaotic weather, and pricing of
greenhouse gas emissions. About half of these costs were seen as “likely to
virtually certain.”
Many companies also saw a huge potential upside if the world can
de-carbonise in time to avert the bleakest climate scenarios, which scientists
see as an existential risk to industrial civilisation.
The companies in the CDP study, which have a combined market
capitalisation of roughly $17 trillion, saw potential opportunities worth $2.1
trillion, spanning faster-than-expected demand for electric vehicles to
investments in renewables.
Investor concerns over climate risk have risen sharply in parallel with
an upsurge in climate activism in many countries as the heat waves, droughts,
wildfires and super-storms fuelled by climate change have become harder to
ignore.
In April, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and Francois Villeroy de
Galhau, head of the French central bank, warned of the risk of a climate-driven
“Minsky moment” – a sudden collapse in asset prices - unless business embraced
greater disclosure.
The CDP aligns its questionnaires with the reporting requirements of the
Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, a voluntary initiative
launched by the G20 in 2015, which is due to publish a status report on
Wednesday.
More
Mexico draws red line on asylum as Trump tariff risk rises
June 3, 2019 /
1:06 PM
WASHINGTON/MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico said on Monday it would reject
a U.S. idea to take in all Central American asylum seekers if it is raised at
talks this week with the Trump administration, which has threatened to impose
tariffs if Mexico does not crack down on illegal immigration.
President Donald Trump said last week he would impose a blanket tariff
on Mexican imports on June 10 to try to pressure Mexico to tackle large flows
of mostly Central American migrants passing through en route to the United
States. The move has spooked global markets worried about a new front in the
U.S. trade war.
Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said the country was committed
to continuing to work to keep migrants from Central America from reaching the
U.S. border. Pushing back against Trump’s charge that Mexico was doing “nothing”
to help, the government said 250,000 more immigrants would reach the United
States in 2019 without its efforts.
Ebrard said, however, that a proposal favored by some U.S. officials to
designate Mexico a “safe third country,” which would force Central Americans
seeking asylum in the United States to apply for it instead in Mexico, was not
an option.
“An agreement
about a safe third country would not be acceptable for Mexico,” Ebrard told
reporters in Washington. “They have not yet proposed it to me. But it would not
be acceptable and they know it.”
Such a designation would in theory cut the number of new Central
American asylum seekers to almost zero, and removing it from the discussion
leaves fewer negotiating options available for avoiding the 5% tariffs due to
kick in next week.
The Mexican economy, which is heavily reliant on exports to the United
States, shrank in the first quarter and would reel under U.S. levies.
Goldman Sachs economists on Monday gave a 70% chance of the tariffs on
Mexican imports coming into effect on June 10.
More
Australia’s central bank cuts interest rates for the first time in nearly three years
By James
Glynn and Rachel
Pannett Published: June 4, 2019 1:11
a.m. ET
YDNEY—Australia became the largest developed economy to cut interest
rates in 2019, lowering borrowing costs for the first time in nearly three
years to offset the effects of global trade tensions and a slowdown in China.
The move comes as market participants grow more convinced that the
Federal Reserve will likely to cut rates later this year and follows a string
of reductions by neighboring Asia-Pacific nations.
The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday lowered its benchmark interest
rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 1.25%. Some economists say the rate
could go as low as 0.5% by the middle of next year.
In an accompanying statement, RBA Gov. Philip Lowe said the risks from trade disputes have increased. “Growth in international trade remains weak and the increased uncertainty is affecting investment intentions in a number of countries,” he added.
In other news, it
never rains but it pours.
More weather woes for farmers: 'There will be a lot of acres not planted'
June 3, 2019 /
6:30 PM
How best to describe the situation faced by U.S. farmers
after continued rain and flooding?"It's like we are trying to plant on top of a lake!" Nebraska farmer Ed Brummels wrote in a recent Twitter post.
The situation does not look to improve for farmers in the U.S. Corn Belt. AccuWeather is predicting the pattern of rounds of showers and thunderstorms to continue, with storms over part of the flood-stricken areas into midweek. Also, the southern half of the Corn Belt is in the path of downpours expected later this week.
"If you're along the Ohio River and you don't have your corn planted by Wednesday, you may not plant anything additional because you may get three inches of rain between Thursday and Saturday," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.
Corn and soybean planting remain well off pace, according to Monday's U.S. Department of
Agriculture Crop Progress compared to the average from 2014-18.
The Crop Progress indicated just 67 percent of corn was planted in 18
key corn-producing states. The 2014-18 average for corn planted by June 2 is 96
percent, so planting is off 30.2 percent in comparison.
Corn planting has been at an all-time low percentage for the last three
reports and remains behind schedule in 17 of the 18 states monitored.
Soybean planting is behind in 16 of the 18 key soybean-producing states,
according to the report. So far, just 39 percent of soybean planting has taken
place, compared to the five-year average of 79 percent by June 2, meaning
soybean planting is off 50.6 percent.
AccuWeather predicts yields below the USDA estimates for corn (9 percent lower) and soybeans (4 percent lower) for the year because of extended wet conditions in key corn- and soybean-producing states.
"Worst year I can remember [locally]," Brummels, who has been in the agriculture industry since 1981, wrote. "It gets worse as you go north and east of me in Nebraska. South Dakota is a disaster. ... I do remember 1983 was bad -- but not sure if it was this bad," he added. "There will be a lot of acres not planted."
Many U.S. farmers face an impending decision regarding their planting plans. Historical data shows that corn yield could drop roughly 22 percent if corn is planted on or beyond June 4.
More
Finally, Tesla. Is
Tesla merely a front for a hidden agenda?
GM and Fiat Chrysler Unmasked as Tesla's Secret Source of Cash
By Miles Weiss and David Welch
Updated on 3 June 2019, 16:47 BST
For years, Tesla Inc.
has hauled in revenue by selling credits to other carmakers that needed to
offset sales of polluting vehicles to U.S. consumers. These sorts of
transactions have largely been shrouded in secrecy -- until now.General Motors Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV disclosed to the state of Delaware earlier this year that they reached agreements to buy federal greenhouse gas credits from Tesla. While the filings are light on detail, they haven’t been reported on previously. They also represent the first acknowledgments from carmakers that they’re turning to Tesla for help to comply with intensifying U.S. environmental regulations.
The deal with GM will come as a surprise to those who thought years of sales of plug-in hybrid Chevrolet Volts and all-electric Chevy Bolts would leave the largest U.S. automaker in the clear with regard to regulatory compliance. But while sales of those models have put GM in a position where it doesn’t need extra credits today, demand for its battery-powered vehicles are dwarfed by its gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs. And the company wants to bank the credits for future years when emissions rules get tougher -- especially if a Democrat beats President Donald Trump in 2020.
“This might not be a bad hedge,” said Mike Taylor, the founder and president of Emission Advisors, a Houston-based environmental credit consultant and broker. “If a Democrat gets elected in 2020, GM may need the credits and prices may go up.”
The filings don’t give specific terms of Tesla’s credit sales to GM or Fiat Chrysler, whose past purchases of credits haven’t been disclosed directly but could be inferred from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency reports.
A Tesla spokesman didn’t immediately comment. The Palo Alto, California-based company’s shares fell 1.5% as of 11:30 a.m. Monday in New York and traded down as much as 2.5% earlier to $180.55, the lowest intraday since December 2016. The stock has slumped 45% this year on concern demand for its electric vehicles is weaker than Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk hoped.
----Tesla has generated almost $2 billion in revenue from selling regulatory credits since 2010. Its home state of California has a mandate that requires carmakers to sell zero-emission vehicles, or ZEVs, in proportion to their share of the state’s auto market, which is the largest in the country.
If manufacturers don’t sell enough non-polluting vehicles, they have to purchase credits from competitors like Tesla to make up the difference. A similar credit system is administered at the federal level by the EPA and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
More
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
John
Kenneth Galbraith
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, the tech giants. With a presidential election year coming up in
America, both parties have the technology giants in their sights. Best not to
be collateral damage.
U.S. moving toward major antitrust probe of tech giants
June 3, 2019 /
8:02 PM
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - The U.S. government is gearing up to investigate whether Amazon,
Apple, Facebook and Google misuse their massive market power, sources told
Reuters on Monday, setting up what could be an unprecedented, wide-ranging
probe of some of the world’s largest companies.
The Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice, which
enforce antitrust laws in the United States, have divided oversight over the
four companies, two sources said, with Amazon and Facebook under the watch of
the FTC, and Apple and Google under the Justice Department.
With jurisdiction established, the next step is for the two federal
agencies to decide if they want to open formal investigations. Results are not
likely to be quick. A previous FTC probe of Google took more than two years.
Technology companies face a backlash in the United States and across the
world, fueled by concerns among competitors, lawmakers and consumer groups that
the firms have too much power and are harming users and business rivals.
Shares of Facebook Inc fell 7.5% on Monday while Google’s owner Alphabet
Inc shed more than 6%. Amazon.com Inc shares fell 4.6% and Apple Inc dipped 1%.
The Justice Department and FTC generally do not discuss investigations.
U.S. President Donald Trump has called for closer scrutiny of social
media companies and Google, accusing them of suppressing conservative voices
online, without presenting any evidence.
He has repeatedly criticized Amazon for taking advantage of the U.S.
Postal Service, also without evidence. Trump has frequently taken aim at
Amazon’s Chief Executive Jeff Bezos, who privately owns the Washington Post, a
newspaper which often criticizes Trump.
Leading lawmakers on both sides of the aisle welcomed potential
investigations of big tech firms.
Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, a Republican, told
Reuters that the business model of companies like Google and Facebook needs to
be scrutinized. “It’s got so much power, and so unregulated,” he said. Another
Republican, Senator Marsha Blackburn, said the panel would do what she called a
“deeper dive” into big tech companies.
Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal, who said on Monday that U.S.
enforcers have to do more than wring their hands about the companies’ clout,
also weighed in.
“Their predatory power grabs demand strict & stiff investigation
& antitrust action,” the Connecticut senator wrote on Twitter.
Separately, the House of Representatives Judiciary Committee opened its
own investigation into competition in digital markets, with both Republicans
and Democrats expressing concern about the power exercised by tech giants.
News broke on Friday that the Justice Department was laying the
groundwork to investigate Google to determine whether the world’s biggest
online advertising platform was using its size to squeeze out smaller
competitors, violating laws designed to ensure fair competition. The company
declined comment on Monday.
The Washington Post reported on Saturday that Amazon would come under
the remit of the FTC in any probe. Amazon declined comment on Monday.
More
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
John Kenneth Galbraith
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Organic laser diodes move from dream to reality
Date:
May 31, 2019
Source:
Kyushu University
Summary:
Researchers from Japan have demonstrated that a long-elusive kind of laser
diode based on organic semiconductors is indeed possible, paving the way for
the further expansion of lasers in applications such as biosensing, displays,
healthcare, and optical communications.
Researchers from Japan have demonstrated that a long-elusive kind of
laser diode based on organic semiconductors is indeed possible, paving the way
for the further expansion of lasers in applications such as biosensing,
displays, healthcare, and optical communications.
Long considered a holy grail in the area of light-emitting devices,
organic laser diodes use carbon-based organic materials to emit light instead
of the inorganic semiconductors, such as gallium arsenide and gallium nitride,
used in traditional devices.
The lasers are in many ways similar to organic light-emitting diodes
(OLEDs), in which a thin layer of organic molecules emits light when
electricity is applied. OLEDs have become a popular choice for smartphone
displays because of their high efficiency and vibrant colors, which can easily
be changed by designing new organic molecules.
Organic laser diodes produce a much purer light enabling additional
applications, but they require currents that are magnitudes higher than those
used in OLEDs to achieve the lasing process. These extreme conditions caused
previously studied devices to break down well before lasing could be observed.
Further complicating progress, previous claims of electrically generated
lasing from organic materials turned out to be false on several occasions, with
other phenomena being mistaken for lasing because of insufficient characterization.
But now, scientists from the Center for Organic Photonics and
Electronics Research (OPERA) at Kyushu University report in the journal Applied
Physics Express that they have enough data to convincingly show that
organic semiconductor laser diodes have finally been realized.
"I think that many people in the community were doubting whether we
would actually one day see the realization of an organic laser diode,"
says Atula S. D. Sandanayaka, lead author on the paper, "but by slowing
chipping away at the various performance limitations with improved materials
and new device structures, we finally did it."
----"By optimizing these grids, we could not only obtain the desired optical properties but also control the flow of electricity in the devices and minimize the amount of electricity required to observe lasing from the organic thin film," says Adachi.
The researchers are so confident in the promise of these new devices
that they founded the startup company KOALA Tech Inc. -- short for Kyushu
Organic Laser Technology Inc. -- on March 22, 2019, to accelerate research and
overcome the final obstacles remaining for using the organic laser diodes in
commercial applications.
The founding members of KOALA Tech Inc., Prof. Chihaya Adachi, Dr.
Jean-Charles Ribierre, Dr. Fatima Bencheikh, and Dr. Takashi Fujihara, are now
hard at work improving the performance of their organic laser diodes to bring
this most advanced organic light-emitting technology to the world.
More
Nothing is so admirable in politics as a short memory.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May
DJIA: 24,815 +49 Down. NASDAQ: 7,453 +71 Down.
SP500: 2,752 +46 Down.
The S&P has reversed again to down after only one month. What
happens next to stocks largely depends on whether President Trump goes through
with his insane attack on Mexico’s economy. The US and Mexican economies are so
inter-dependent, President Trump is proposing to attack a sizable section of
the US economy itself. Not just economic madness, MADNESS!
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