Baltic
Dry Index 629
unch. Brent
Crude 62.48
Trump
25 percent tariffs 21 days away. Brexit 51
days away.
“The world is a place that’s gone from being flat to round to
crooked.”
Mad Magazine.
In
the Great USA v China trade war, it is showdown time next week. President Trump’s
top trade war team fly in to China to make or break a new trade deal with
China. After that President’s Xi and Trump are supposed to meet, declare victory,
and sign off on the deal.
The
markets are heavily betting on black, there will be a deal reached next week. There
will be no 25 percent punitive tariffs imposed on China’s exports to the USA.
But are they betting right. What if red turns up next week?
With
the US government setting out to destroy Huawei and ZTE, can President Xi
really be seen kowtowing to President Trump? What happens if President Xi simply
says “no deal.”
I made a killing on Wall Street a few years ago...I shot my broker.
Groucho Marx
Asian shares inch up to four-month highs, New Zealand dollar takes a dive
February 7, 2019 / 12:50 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian share markets edged up to
four-month highs on Thursday with Australian equities the star performer while
the New Zealand dollar sank after disappointing jobs data prompted investors to
narrow the odds of a future rate cut.
Trading was still light overall with China on
holiday and no major economic data on the diary.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares
outside Japan added 0.2 percent, rising to its highest since early October
after ending almost unchanged on Wednesday.
The index has risen steadily since early January as
the U.S. Federal Reserve changed its tune on policy for further rate rises.
Australia’s benchmark stock index jumped 1.2
percent amid expectations of easy monetary policy after the country’s central
bank chief shifted away from his previous tightening bias.
Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.7 percent.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 as well as Dow
minis were both off 0.2 percent.
The next major trigger for markets will be any
breakthrough in the U.S.-Sino tariff talks when the two sides meet in Beijing
next week.
U.S. President Donald Trump offered little new to
chew on in his State of the Union speech but Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin
said on Wednesday he and other U.S. officials will aim to clinch a deal next
week to avert a March 2 increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.
“Investors are continuing to look for clarity on
the trade situation between the United States and China and as the trading days
drift by with no concrete update on progress then markets become more and more
concerned,” said Nick Twidale, analyst at Rakuten Securities Australia.
“Probably more pressing for the U.S. markets is the
threat of another government shutdown,” Twidale added.
More
US-China trade war: UN warns of 'massive' impact of tariff hike
5
February 2019
A UN trade official has warned a US plan to raise tariffs
on Chinese goods next month would have "massive" implications for the
global economy.
The US plans to increase tariffs on Chinese goods
if the two sides fail to make progress on a trade deal by 1 March.
The comments followed a report by a UN trade agency
on the impact of the US-China trade war.
It said Asian countries are likely to suffer most
from protectionism.
The US and China are locked in a damaging trade
dispute that has seen both sides levy tariffs on billions of dollars worth of
one another's goods.
In December, both countries agreed to hold off on
new tariffs for 90 days to allow for talks.
The US and China have a deadline of 1 March to
strike a deal, or the US has said it will increase tariff rates on $200bn
(£152bn) worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%.
The UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad)
has warned that there will be huge costs if the trade war escalates.
"The implications are going to be
massive," Pamela Coke-Hamilton, Unctad's head of international trade, said
at a news conference.
"The implications for the entire international
trading system will be significantly negative."
Smaller and poorer countries would struggle to cope
with the external shocks, she said.
The higher cost of US-China trade would prompt
companies to shift away from current east Asian supply chains.
Unctad's report estimates that east Asian producers will be hit the hardest, with a projected $160bn contraction in the region's exports.
But it warns the effects could be felt everywhere.
"There'll be currency wars and devaluation, stagflation leading to job losses and higher unemployment and more importantly, the possibility of a contagion effect, or what we call a reactionary effect, leading to a cascade of other trade distortionary measures," Ms Coke-Hamilton said.
Unexpected winners and losers
The higher cost of US-China trade would prompt companies to shift away from current east Asian supply chains, but report suggests it's unlikely that US firms would pick up that business.The study found that US firms will only pick up 6% of the $250bn in Chinese exports that are subject to US tariffs.
Of the approximately $85bn in US exports that are
subject to China's tariffs, only about 5% will be taken up by Chinese firms,
the UN research shows.
The study found that European exports will grow by
$70bn, while Japan, Canada and Mexico will see exports increase by more than
$20bn each.
Other countries that could benefit include
Australia, Brazil, India, the Philippines and Vietnam, the report said.
Wall Street Veteran Says U.S.-China Deal Will Be Sell Trigger
By Adam Haigh And Caroline Hyde
6 February 2019, 00:19 GMT
A trade deal between the U.S. and China will put an end to the rally in risk
assets that’s been in place since late December, according to Hondius Capital
Management LP’s Shawn Matthews.“Right now, it’s a risk-on mentality -- you want to be long riskier assets until you get a deal with China,” Matthews, who headed Cantor Fitzgerald LP’s broker-dealer unit from 2009 until last year and now runs his own hedge fund, told Bloomberg TV in New York. “When that happens you certainly want to be looking to scale back.”
Despite Matthews’ recommendation to stay invested in equities for now, the bond market is showing signs of caution, he said. The 13 percent surge in global stocks since Christmas is beginning to reflect some kind of a U.S.-China deal, so a classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the fact” may eventuate, said Matthews.
“The
bond market is not seeing the follow through,” said Matthews, whose career
began in 1990 and saw him rise to lead one of Wall Street’s biggest brokerages
until he left to start Hondius Capital, a macro fund. “If it was truly a
risk-on world and people believed it and it was an extended trade, then you would
see the 10-year start to back up. That’s a clear sign there’s some concern
about what’s going on out there.”
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-06/wall-street-veteran-says-u-s-china-deal-will-be-sell-trigger
Very strong incentive for UK and EU to avoid no-deal Brexit - S&P
February 6, 2019 / 2:57 PM
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain and the European Union
continue to have a “very strong incentive” to avoid a no-deal Brexit which
would damage the outlook for its sovereign credit rating, ratings agency
Standard & Poor’s said on Wednesday.
“The political incentive for the UK and the EU to
negotiate an orderly outcome — even after a potential delay — remains very
strong,” S&P said in a note to clients.
“A no-deal Brexit could result in negative
revisions of our outlooks on ratings where a weaker UK economy could lead to
weaker credit metrics and downgrades where disruption is more immediate and
material,” the ratings agency added.
Next, yet another Unicorn ranch
disappears. What a surprise. If you have money burning a hole in your pocket,
don’t waste it on unicorn ranching, send it along to me to waste, I mean invest!
"There's a sucker born every minute"
P. T. Barnum.
Crypto on Canadian exchange may be gone, not trapped, researchers say
By Paul
Vigna Published: Feb 6, 2019
10:10 a.m. ET
A Canadian cryptocurrency exchange says about $140 million worth of
customers’ holdings are stuck in an electronic vault because the company’s
founder, and sole employee, died without sharing the password.But two independent researchers say publicly available transaction records associated with QuadrigaCX suggest the money may be gone, not trapped.
They say it appears Quadriga transferred customer funds to other cryptocurrency exchanges, although it isn’t clear what might have happened to the money from there.
Their research is the latest twist in what is shaping up to be a bizarre case, even within the often murky and unpredictable world of cryptocurrencies.
Read an expanded version of this article at WSJ.com
Sleuths Scour for Frozen Quadriga Coins in Crypto Drama
By Olga Kharif and Doug Alexander
6 February 2019, 19:14 GMT Updated
on 6 February 2019, 21:54 GMT
The death of a crypto executive trapped C$190 million on a Canadian
exchange. Or did it?Ever since Quadriga CX revealed last month that founder Gerald Cotten, who died in India in December, was the only person able to access the exchange’s digital ledgers, scores of blockchain analysts, research companies and amateur sleuths have been arguing over whether some of the money has been moving between accounts since he died and even if the coins existed at all.
Cotten’s widow set off the firestorm by seeking protection from creditors for the Vancouver-based company, saying that her late husband was “very conscious about security” and she didn’t know the password or recovery key of his encrypted laptop nor could she find anything written down despite repeated searches.
Without the key to the digital accounts, it is extremely difficult to unlock the ledger and move the more than $144 million in coins Quadriga CX had stored on its exchange. While proponents of digital currencies argue that the incorruptible nature of the blockchain is its primary feature, investors in the likes of Bitcoin and Ether have frequently lost their digital codes, locking themselves out of their accounts with little recourse.
More
Finally, you heard it here first. America is to go
socialist. The Rest of the World loses all hope!
Never
believe anything in politics until it
has been officially denied.
Count Otto von Bismarck
Trump: "America Will Never Be A Socialist Country"; "We Were Born Free And We Will Stay Free"
Posted By Ian Schwartz On Date February 5, 2019
President
Trump said the United States will never become a socialist country in his 2019
State of the Union address.
"We stand with the Venezuelan people in their noble quest for freedom — and we condemn the brutality of the Maduro regime, whose socialist policies have turned that nation from being the wealthiest in South America into a state of abject poverty and despair," Trump said Tuesday night.
"Here, in the United States, we are alarmed by new calls to adopt socialism in our country," the president said. "America was founded on liberty and independence - not government coercion, domination, and control. We are born free, and we will stay free."
"We stand with the Venezuelan people in their noble quest for freedom — and we condemn the brutality of the Maduro regime, whose socialist policies have turned that nation from being the wealthiest in South America into a state of abject poverty and despair," Trump said Tuesday night.
"Here, in the United States, we are alarmed by new calls to adopt socialism in our country," the president said. "America was founded on liberty and independence - not government coercion, domination, and control. We are born free, and we will stay free."
More
"For 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against
America, and now is no time to start. America’s golden goose of commerce and
innovation will continue to lay more and larger eggs. America’s social security
promises will be honored and perhaps made more generous. And, yes, America’s
kids will live far better than their parents did."
Warren Buffett
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over banksters and politicians.
Today, American overreach or genuine security
concerns? It’s hard to say but no one, I suspect, will take the risk. But how
will China react? I suspect that we’ll find out later this year. Short Caterpillar,
Boeing, and Apple?
"The world urgently
needs to create a diversified currency and financial system and fair and just
financial order that is not dependent on the United States."
Shi Jianxun. China People’s Daily. September 16, 2008
U.S. warns European allies not to use Chinese gear for 5G networks
February 5, 2019 / 4:03 PM / Updated 15 hours ago
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The United States sees the
European Union as its top priority in a global effort to convince allies not to
buy Huawei equipment for next-generation mobile networks, a U.S. State
Department Official said on Tuesday.
After meetings with the European Commission and the
Belgian government in Brussels, U.S. officials are set to take a message to
other European capitals that the world’s biggest telecommunications gear maker
poses a security risk, said the official, who declined to be named.
“We are saying you need to be very, very cautious
and we are urging folks not to rush ahead and sign contracts with untrusted
suppliers from countries like China,” the official said.
The United States fears China could use the
equipment for espionage - a concern that Huawei Technologies Co. says is
unfounded. The push to sideline Huawei in Europe, one of its biggest markets,
is likely to deepen trade frictions between Washington and Beijing.
Washington is using “multiple tracks”, the U.S.
official said, including talks at the U.S.-led NATO alliance in Brussels and at
international conferences in Barcelona and Munich: “Europe is definitely where
we see this as the top priority.”
Huawei gear is widely used in Europe but the push
is aimed at equipment for the new fifth generation mobile technology, which
promises to link up everything from vehicles to factories at far greater
speeds.
While Washington has largely barred Huawei from
supplying its government and contractors, it sees advanced European
preparations for 5G networks as a security risk that could also endanger the
United States.
“Going with an untrusted supplier like Huawei or ZTE
will have all sorts of ramifications for your national security and ... since
we are military allies with almost all members of the European Union, on our
national security as well,” the official said.
Asked for evidence of intelligence work by Huawei
or its rival ZTE, the U.S. official said American alarm stemmed more from
China’s status as a one-party state, a series of Chinese laws approved in 2017,
and counter-terrorism legislation.
The official cited language in the National
Intelligence Law that directs individuals and companies to aid China’s
intelligence-gathering and keep such work secret.
“Huawei and ZTE ... are ensconced in a one-party
state where they are simply not equipped to resist directions from Beijing.”
The official also pointed to vulnerabilities found
in older networks built by Huawei in Britain, even when they were monitored by
a laboratory overseen by British intelligence.
Reuters reported exclusively on Jan. 30 that the
European Commission, the EU executive, was considering proposals that would ban
Huawei from 5G networks, but that work was at an early stage.
Concern is also growing in Germany. But France is
walking a fine line, with parliament reviewing a provision that would increase
government powers to make checks on 5G equipment.
“We may not have all the information the United
States has. But we take decisions based on what we know. And at this stage, we
have not decided to ban Huawei in France,” a French official said this week.
Huawei Sting Offers Rare Glimpse of the U.S. Targeting a Chinese Giant
Diamond glass could make your phone’s screen nearly unbreakable—and its inventor says the FBI enlisted him after Huawei tried to steal his secrets.
By Erik Schatzker 4
February 2019, 09:00 GMT
The sample looked like an ordinary piece of glass, 4
inches square and transparent on both sides. It’d been packed like the
precious specimen its inventor, Adam Khan, believed it to be—placed on wax
paper, nestled in a tray lined with silicon gel, enclosed in a plastic case,
surrounded by air bags, sealed in a cardboard box—and then sent for testing
to a laboratory in San Diego owned by Huawei Technologies Co.
But when the sample came back last August, months late and badly damaged,
Khan knew something was terribly wrong. Was the Chinese company trying to
steal his technology?
The glass was a prototype for what Khan’s company, Akhan Semiconductor Inc., describes as a nearly indestructible smartphone screen. Khan’s innovation was figuring out how to coat one side of the glass with a microthin layer of artificial diamond. He hoped to license this technology to phone manufacturers, which could use it to develop an entirely new, superdurable generation of electronics. Akhan says Miraj Diamond Glass, as the product is known, is 6 times stronger and 10 times more scratch-resistant than Gorilla Glass, the industry standard that generates about $3 billion in annual sales for Corning Inc. “Lighter, thinner, faster, stronger,” says Khan, in full sales mode. Miraj, he promises, will lead to a “fundamental next level in design.”
Like all inventors, Khan was paranoid about knockoffs.
Even so, he was caught by surprise when Huawei, a potential customer, began to
behave suspiciously after receiving the meticulously packed sample. Khan was
more surprised when the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation drafted him and
Akhan’s chief operations officer, Carl Shurboff, as participants in its
investigation of Huawei. The FBI asked them to travel to Las Vegas and conduct
a meeting with Huawei representatives at last month’s Consumer Electronics
Show. Shurboff was outfitted with surveillance devices and recorded the
conversation while a Bloomberg Businessweek reporter watched from safe
distance.
More
“Sometimes you move publicly, sometimes privately. Sometimes
quietly, sometimes at
the top of your voice.”
James Baker. United States Secretary of
the Treasury under President Ronald Reagan, and U.S. Secretary of State and
White House Chief of Staff under President George H. W. Bush.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Gold Fields plans mega solar power plant at Grannie Smith
Canadian Mining Journal Staff
| about 10 hours ago |
South Africa-based Gold Fields has announced plans
to build one of the world’s largest solar power and battery facilities at its
Granny Smith gold mine 400 km northeast of Kalgoorlie. The system will be
powered by more than 20,000 solar panels. Backup will be provided by a 2 MWh/1
MWh battery system.
Gold Fields has contracted Aggreko, a mobile and
modular power company, to design, build and operate the 8 MW solar generation
and storage system. Construction is to begin in May and be complete by Q4 2019.
The system at the mine will be integrated with Aggreko’s existing 24.2 MW
natural gas generating capabilities.
The solar system is expected to reduce fuel
consumption by 10% to 13% and produce 18 GWh of clean energy per year.
The current Granny Smith power station was designed
and installed by Aggreko in 2016. The new hybrid power system, combined with a
thermal station expansion, will meet the increased daily power needs of 24.2
MW, with 12.2 MW allocated to the Wallaby underground mine and the remaining 12
MW to the processing plant, associated facilities and mining camp.
People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough
men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.
George Orwell.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January.
DJIA: 24,999 +76 Down. NASDAQ: 7,282 +124 Down.
SP500: 2,704 +71
Down.
Normally
this would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump
wanting to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge
Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team, probably
the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the
major indexes.
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