Baltic
Dry Index 645 -23
Brent Crude 62.67
Trump
25 percent tariffs 25 days away. Brexit 53
days away.
“Doors and drawers stick before a rain.”
Weather Adage.
President
Trump, who’s staked his Presidency on the success of US stock markets, got a large
dose of rain from the New England Patriots last night. Better remind the Powell Fed which re-election
team the Fed’s Plunge Protection Team is
playing for.
Not
to worry too much this week though. With the Chinese New Year closing many
Asian markets this week, and the Australian Banking Royal Commission almost
doing the same to the Wizards of Oz, it ought to be easy to rig US stocks
higher this week. One dose of rain back to the Patriots.
Below,
the fading super bowl indicator leads off today.
“When clouds appear like rocks and towers,
The Earth’s refreshed with frequent showers.”
Weather Adage.
Patriots win the Super Bowl, so the stock market is doomed. (Or not)
By Mike
Murphy Published: Feb 3, 2019 10:05 p.m. ET
The New England Patriots won the Super Bowl on Sunday, so the stock market
will fall this year.Or so says the infamous Super Bowl Predictor, which says that the market will rise when a team from the original NFL (these days, mostly the NFC) wins the Super Bowl, and declines when a team from the old American Football League (mostly today’s AFC) wins.
It’s a bunch of hooey, of course, as MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert has written about and debunked.
Last year, for example, the NFC’s Philadelphia Eagles won, and stocks still went down the drain. The year before that, the AFC’s Patriots won and stocks soared. So . . .
The theory actually had a good track record for a while. But much less so in recent years, as Jeffrey Kleintop, chief of global investment strategies at Charles Schwab Corp. SCHW, +0.56% , pointed out in a tweet Sunday:
When there are only two options, a 48% accuracy
rate over the past 20 years is not what you’d call statistically significant.
It’s basically a coin flip.
So carry on, investors, no need to panic just yet.
On the bright side: If the market actually does
fall this year, we can all blame Tom Brady, just for kicks.
Asian markets mixed amid holiday closures; Sony sinks
By Associated Press
and Marketwatch
Published: Feb 3, 2019 11:44 p.m. ET
Asian markets were mixed Monday amid speculation
over next steps in the dispute between the U.S. and China over technology
development and trade following meetings in Washington last week.
Markets in mainland China and Taiwan are closed for
the week for Lunar New Year celebrations. South Korean markets were closed for
a holiday.
American and Chinese negotiators ended two days of
talks in Washington last week without word of a deal, though those involved —
including President Donald Trump — were optimistic about the road ahead.
Trump said he plans to meet his Chinese counterpart
Xi Jinping to sort out contentious issues. “I think when Xi and I meet, every
point will be agreed to,” Trump said, without specifying a date or location. A
tariffs cease-fire between the U.S. and China is set to end on March 2, and the
U.S. is expected to raise import taxes from 10 percent to 25 percent for $200
billion in Chinese goods.
“There is rising optimism on the trade talks
between the U.S. and China, although no details have been nailed down. The
upside is limited as President Trump also mentioned that if the talks are not
successful a new round of tariffs is imminent,” Alfonso Esparza, senior market
analyst at OANDA, said in a commentary.
More
In
other news, China continues slowing. An Aussie Royal Commission slams Australia’s greedy, unethical, banksters into
the wall. Euroland braces for a downgrade. The weather dumps on earnings in
North America.
“Mackerel skies and mares’ tails
Make tall ships carry low sails.”
Weather Adage.
China's service-sector growth slowed in January
By MarketWatch Published: Feb 3, 2019 11:46 p.m. ET
BEIJING -- Growth in activity in China's service
sector slowed in January, a private gauge showed on Sunday, contrasting with
official data that pointed to a faster expansion in the sector.
The Caixin China services purchasing managers'
index slipped to 53.6 in January from 53.9 in December, Caixin Media Co. and
research firm Markit said.
A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in
activity from the previous month while a level below that points to a
contraction.
"Demand for services remained solid as the
increase in new business accelerated marginally," Zhengsheng Zhong,
director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group, said in a statement
accompanying the data.
But the sub-index of business expectations declined
from the previous month, indicating services providers' weakening confidence in
the outlook of their operation for the coming 12 months, Mr. Zhong said.
"Given that the government has refrained from
taking policies of strong stimulus, the downward trend of the economy may be
hard to turn around for the time being," he said.
China's official nonmanufacturing PMI, which includes
the construction sector, rose to 54.7 in January from 53.8 in December, the
National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.
Australia to overhaul regulators after landmark banking inquiry
February 4, 2019 / 5:35 AM
Australia’s corporate regulators will be subjected to
a new oversight body in a shake-up of the banking sector designed to combat the
excessive greed and unethical practices that have engulfed some of the
country’s biggest financial institutions.
The Royal Commission, Australia’s most powerful
type of government inquiry, also advised in its landmark report on Monday that
remuneration structures across the industry - used to reward everyone from bank
sales staff to mortgage brokers - be overhauled to remove systemic conflicts of
interest.
The report’s recommendations were largely supported
by the conservative government immediately after its release. It marks the
climax of a year-long interrogation of some of Australia’s biggest corporations
and business leaders which wiped A$60 billion ($43.45 billion) from the
country’s top finance stocks since hearings began one year ago.
The inquiry revealed misconduct had reached into
the sector’s upper echelons, with AMP Ltd engaging in board-level deception of
a regulator over the deliberate charging of customers for financial advice it
never gave, costing the fund manager its chairman, CEO and several directors.
The final report from Commissioner Kenneth Hayne, a
former High Court justice who led the inquiry, found that the industry’s
problems were exacerbated by an unwillingness by corporations to accept
responsibility, leading to long delays in compensation payments.
“That is, there remains a reluctance in some entities
to form and then to give practical effect to their understanding of what is
ethical, of what is efficient, honest and fair, of what is the right thing to
do,” the report said.
More
Euro-Area Economy to Get Downgraded as EU Plays Catchup
By Fergal O'Brien 4 February 2019, 05:00 GMT The European Commission last published forecasts for the euro-area economy in November, which means a big downgrade is on the cards when it updates the numbers on Thursday. While it’s mostly a case of playing catchup -- consensus is now just 1.4 percent growth in 2019 versus the commission’s 1.9 percent -- it’s another reminder of how much the outlook has changed recently. The European Central Bank, which recently said risks have moved to the downside, will update its own projections in March.Dollar Vortex Puts Chill on Earnings That May Worsen in Spring
Misyrlena Egkolfopoulou, Liz Capo McCormick and Cécile Daurat
When the list of usual suspects blamed for
disappointing corporate earnings is compiled for any given quarter, you can
often count on two bogeymen showing up prominently: nasty weather and gyrations
in currency markets.
While we’ll have to wait until the current quarter
is over to see how many fingers will be pointed at the record-cold Polar
Vortex, the currency market is playing a starring role as a villain in many
U.S. companies’ fourth-quarter results. The ICE Dollar Index jumped more than
10 percent from its low in February 2018 to its high in November, and its
average level last quarter was 3 percent higher than the previous year’s
period. Call it the Dollar Vortex. And unlike the cold snap that froze much of
the U.S. last week, there’s no guarantee of a spring thaw.
“That’s a fast move and a big move, and there’s
always a lag for it affecting the economy,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment
strategist at Leuthold Weeden Capital Management in Minneapolis. “When you
increase the dollar, overnight you change the competitive status of American
products.”
The pain is not spread evenly around the U.S.
corporate landscape, and a strong dollar is actually good news for many
import-reliant consumer companies because it results in greater buying power
overseas. But the currency’s strength underscores the challenges that many of
America’s corporate giants faced amid global trade tensions, a tighter U.S. rate
policy and concerns about China’s economy. Every 7 percent to 8 percent move in
the dollar results in a 1 percent move in the opposite direction for U.S.
corporate profits, according to Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at
Credit Suisse Group.
More
Red sky at night, sailors delight,
Red sky in the morning sailors take warning.
Weather Adage.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over banksters and politicians.
No crooks today, more on crooks tomorrow. Today,
commodities and Australian commodities in particular. A year’s worth of rain in a week. It’s too
soon to know what impact this will have on commodities.
“When the ass begins to bray,
Surely rain will come that day.”
Weather Adage.
Part of eastern Australia hit by once-in-a-century floods, braces for more rain
February 2, 2019 / 9:30 AM
MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Once-in-a-century flooding in
part of the eastern Australian state of Queensland looks set to worsen as the
nation’s weather bureau on Saturday warned of more heavy rain in the area.
Some residents have already been evacuated after days
of monsoon rains lashed the region around the coastal city of Townsville in
north Queensland, a spokesman for the Bureau of Meteorology said.
Adam Blazak, a forecaster with the bureau, did not
say how many people had been evacuated, but added that some areas had reached
“major” flood levels.
“Normally a monsoonal burst might last a few days,
but this one’s been going on over a week now and is set to continue for a few
more days as well,” he said.
Between 150 mm and 200 mm of rain is expected
across Townsville on Saturday - equal to about a month’s average rainfall.
Local authorities issued a number of flood warnings
on Saturday morning and told residents to avoid using roads and consider moving
to higher ground if conditions worsen.
North Queensland has significant zinc reserves as
well as major deposits of silver, lead, copper and iron ore, with Townsville a
major processing centre for the region’s base metals.
More
Townsville
Economy
The city has a diverse economy with strengths in education,
healthcare, retail, construction and manufacturing. It is a defense hub and is
home to thousands of military personnel. It is also a major manufacturing and
processing hub. Townsville is the only city globally to refine three different
base metals — zinc, copper
and nickel — and it is planned in the near future to
be home to a $2billion Lithium-ion battery manufacturing
facility developed by the Imperium3 consortium in partnership with Siemens.[46][47]
Nickel ore is imported from Indonesia, the Philippines and New Caledonia and
processed at the Yabulu Nickel refinery, 30 kilometres (19 mi) north of
the port. Zinc ore is transported by rail from the Cannington
Mine, south of Cloncurry, for smelting at the Sun Metals refinery
south of Townsville. Copper concentrate from the smelter at Mount Isa is also
railed to Townsville for further refining at the copper refinery at Stuart.
Port of Townsville
South Townsville, Townsville Area
Townsville is a unique, exciting and thoroughly welcoming destination for cruise ships, their passengers and crew. Townsville Port's Quayside Terminal is a near-new cruise ship facility, and guarantees a friendly and professional welcome and departure experience for all cruise ships and their guests. The terminal provides free wi-fi internet access and a wi-fi lounge.
Townsville is the number one port in Australia for copper, zinc, lead and sugar exports and services 70 per cent of the Northern Australia population. More than 20 shipping lines operate out of the Townsville Port, offering more 40 services and covering 136 ports around the world.
The Port of Townsville was crowned the Australian Port or Terminal of the Year in both 2015 and 2016.
“Rain before seven,
Clear by eleven.”
Weather Adage.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Supercomputing helps study of two-dimensional materials
Date: February 1, 2019
Source: Gauss Centre for Supercomputing
Summary: High-performance computing helps researchers
understand experiments for observing real-time motion of lithium atoms in
bi-layer graphene, paving the way for designing new materials for batteries and
other electronics.
Whether it is high-temperature superconductors and
improved energy storage to bendable metals and fabrics capable of completely
wicking liquids, materials scientists study and understand the physics of
interacting atoms in solids to ultimately find ways to improve materials we use
in every aspect of daily life.
The frontier of materials science research lies not
in alchemical trial and error, though; to better understand and improve
materials today, researchers must be able to study material properties at the
atomic scale and under extreme conditions. As a result, researchers have
increasingly come to rely on simulations to complement or inform experiments
into materials' properties and behaviours.
A team of researchers led by Dr. Arkady
Krasheninnikov, physicist at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, partners
with experimentalists to answer fundamental questions about materials'
properties, and the team recently had a big breakthrough -- experimentalists
were able to observe in real time lithium atoms' behaviour when placed between
two graphene sheets. A graphene sheet is what researchers consider a 2D
material, as it is only one atom thick, which made it possible to observe
lithium atom motion in a transmission electron microscopy (TEM) experiments.
With access to supercomputing resources through the
Gauss Centre of Supercomputing (GCS), Krasheninnikov's team was able to use the
High-Performance Computing Center Stuttgart's (HLRS') Hazel Hen supercomputer
to simulate, confirm, and expand on the team's experimental findings. The
collaborative work was recently published in Nature.
"2D materials exhibit useful and exciting
properties, and can be used for many different applications, not only as a
support in TEM," Krasheninnikov says. "Essentially, 2D materials are
at the cutting edge of materials research. There are likely about a couple
thousands of these materials, and roughly 50 have actually been made."
---- The experimentalists were able to, for
the first time, watch in real-time how lithium atoms behave when placed between
two graphene sheets, and with the help of simulations, get insights into how
the atoms were arranged. It was previously assumed that in such an arrangement,
the lithium would be structured as a single atomic layer, but the simulation
showed that lithium could form bi- or trilayers, at least in bi-layer graphene,
leading researchers to look for new ways to improve battery efficiency.
More
“When your joints all start to ache,
Rainy weather is at stake.”
Weather Adage.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January.
DJIA: 24,999 +76 Down. NASDAQ: 7,282 +124 Down.
SP500: 2,704 +71
Down.
Normally
this would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump
wanting to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge
Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team, probably
the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the
major indexes.
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