Monday, 18 February 2019

President Trump Day?


Baltic Dry Index 639 +11       Brent Crude 66.61

Trump 25 percent tariffs 10 days away.  Brexit 40 days away.
 
“Vanity of vanities, saith the Preacher, vanity of vanities; all is vanity.” 

Ecclesiastes 1:2 KJV.

With the US markets closed for Presidents Day, (rumoured to be renamed President Trump Day,) we open with news from Asia. President Trump wants a Nobel Peace Prize. Well why not, Obama got one though no one knows why. Why not make it a Nordic knickknack that come with the job.

Asian markets continue betting on a USA-China trade deal, plus more central bank stimulus in the face of a slowing global economy. Asian markets, and markets in general, better be right about a US-China trade deal, the markets are in for an almighty shock if it doesn’t all go to plan.

Japan's PM nominated Trump for Nobel Peace Prize on U.S. request - Asahi

February 17, 2019 / 4:46 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe nominated U.S. President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize last autumn after receiving a request from the U.S. government to do so, the Asahi newspaper reported on Sunday. 

The report follows Trump’s claim on Friday that Abe had nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize for opening talks and easing tensions with North Korea.

The Japanese leader had given him “the most beautiful copy” of a five-page nomination letter, Trump said at a White House news conference.

The U.S. government had sounded Abe out over the Noble Peace Prize nomination after Trump’s summit in June last year with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the first meeting between a North Korean leader and a sitting U.S. president, the Asahi said, citing an unnamed Japanese government source.

A spokesman for Japan’s Foreign Ministry in Tokyo said the ministry was aware of Trump’s remarks, but “would refrain from commenting on the interaction between the two leaders.”

The White House had no immediate comment when contacted by Reuters.

The Nobel Foundation’s website says a nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize may be submitted by any person who meets the nomination criteria, which includes current heads of states. Under the foundation’s rules, names and other information about unsuccessful nominations cannot be disclosed for 50 years.

Asia shares bounce on trade talk, stimulus wagers

February 18, 2019 / 12:28 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian share markets bounced broadly on Monday as investors dared to hope for both progress at Sino-U.S. trade talks in Washington this week and more policy stimulus from major central banks.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.9 percent, largely recovering from a sharp fall last Friday. 

Japan’s Nikkei climbed 1.8 percent to its highest level of the year so far, while Shanghai blue chips rallied 2.1 percent.

E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 were flat as trade was thinned by a holiday in U.S. markets, while spreadbetters pointed to a firmer opening for European bourses.

The Dow and the Nasdaq had boasted their eighth consecutive weekly gains on wagers the United States and China would hammer out an agreement resolving their protracted trade war.[.N]

The two sides will resume negotiations this week, with U.S. President Donald Trump saying he may extend a March 1 deadline for a deal. Both reported progress in five days of talks in Beijing last week.

“That does not rule out a setback or two between now and the start of March,” said analysts at CBA in a note.

“Even so, we still think that both sides have good reasons to want to get to an agreement. And, so motivated, it makes an agreement more likely than not.”

There are also growing expectations of more reflationary policies from some of the world’s more powerful central banks.

The need for stimulus was highlighted on Monday by data showing a sharp slide in Singapore exports and a big drop in foreign orders for Japanese machinery goods.

“Even so, we still think that both sides have good reasons to want to get to an agreement. And, so motivated, it makes an agreement more likely than not.”

There are also growing expectations of more reflationary policies from some of the world’s more powerful central banks.

The need for stimulus was highlighted on Monday by data showing a sharp slide in Singapore exports and a big drop in foreign orders for Japanese machinery goods.
More

In European news, more of the same, everything messed up and unfixable.

Decisions can only be reached in Europe if France and Germany agree.

Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed Luxembourg Prime Minister and ex-president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Confessed liar. European Commission President. Scotch connoisseur.

It's All About Catalonia as Spain's Electoral Campaign Begins

By Charlie Devereux  17 February 2019, 17:40 GMT
Spain’s opposition aimed swipes at Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez for attempting to negotiate with Catalan separatists, in a strong indication of how the country’s electoral campaign is likely to play out.

Sanchez, who last week called a snap election for April 28 after his budget plan was rejected in parliament, has been criticized by the opposition parties for opening talks with the protagonists of an attempt in 2017 to defy Spain’s constitution and engineer Catalonia’s split from the rest of Spain. That’s angered many Spaniards who think the nationalists should be punished, not wooed.
 
“Mr. Sanchez, it’s very simple, even a seven-year-old girl can understand it: you can’t govern a country with someone who wants to liquidate your country,” Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera said Sunday at a political rally. “We now have two problems: separatism and an ally of separatism” at the head of the government.

Rivera’s center-right Ciudadanos party has risen in the polls by taking a hard line against the Catalan regional government’s attempt to stage an illegal referendum in October 2017. After persuading Catalan separatists to help him oust his predecessor Mariano Rajoy in a no confidence vote last year, Sanchez has tried to defuse tensions while courting their votes in order to push through legislation with his minority government.

People’s Party leader Pablo Casado went a step further Sunday by announcing he would reimpose direct rule from Madrid on Catalonia indefinitely. When still in government, the PP invoked emergency powers under Article 155 of the constitution, allowing the central government to suspend Catalan self-rule.
More

ECB's Rehn sees euro zone economy weakening

February 17, 2019 / 2:25 PM
BERLIN (Reuters) - Recent data point to a weakening euro zone economy, the European Central Bank’s Olli Rehn told a German newspaper on Sunday, adding that interest rates would remain at the current level until monetary policy goals have been met.

The ECB has said it aims to keep interest rates at current record lows at least through the summer but its longstanding rate guidance is increasingly out of sync with market expectations due to an economic slowdown.

“Yes, the most recent data point to a weakening of the economy,” Rehn, the Finnish central bank chief, told Handelsblatt business daily.

He attributed it to greater uncertainties outside the euro zone, such as the trade conflict between the United States and China but also pointed to uncertainty over Brexit, protests in France, fiscal issues in Italy and slower industrial production in Germany.

His comments come before an ECB meeting on March 7, when policymakers are widely expected to slash their growth and inflation projections, as the euro zone is experiencing its biggest slowdown in half a decade.

Asked about a shift in market expectations of future rate hikes being pushed back to later in 2020, Rehn said he did not comment on market developments.
More

Europe vote will decide if Italy stays in EU - League lawmaker

February 15, 2019 / 11:41 AM
MILAN (Reuters) - A prominent member of the far-right League party said on Friday Italy will have to leave the European Union unless the upcoming European Parliament elections show a decisive shift toward populist parties.

“Either we succeed in changing (Europe) now, or we will have to leave,” Claudio Borghi, chairman of the lower house budget committee and the League’s economics spokesman, said, referring to the European election.

“I think this is the last opportunity,” Borghi said at a conference on Europe in Milan, calling the European project “disastrous and toxic”.

Italian government bond yields jumped on Borghi’s comments, which revived concerns about the country’s commitment to the euro common currency.
More

In other news, China continues to slow. Has Trump’s trade war already killed the golden goose the world relies on?

Brent crude oil slips away from 2019 high after China reports car sales drop

February 18, 2019 / 12:55 AM
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Monday after climbing to their highest this year earlier in the session as China reported automobile sales in January fell for a seven month, raising concerns about fuel demand in the world’s second-largest oil user.

International Brent crude futures were at $66.20 per barrel at 0353 GMT, down 5 cents from their last close. Brent earlier climbed to $66.78 a barrel, the highest since November 2018.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $55.82 per barrel, up 23 cents from their last close. WTI prices also rose their highest since November, at $56.13 per barrel, earlier on Monday.

Traders said Brent prices slipped after China reported the weak car sales data.

China’s vehicle sales last month fell by 15.8 percent versus the same month in 2018, an industry association said on Monday. This continued the 2018 trend, in which China recorded the first annual drop in vehicle sales on record.

So-called new energy vehicle sales in January, which include electric vehicles, registered a 140 percent increase, underscoring expectations that oil demand from cars may peak in China in the coming years.
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"We have a firm commitment to NATO, we are a part of NATO. We have a firm commitment to Europe. We are a part of Europe."

George W. Bush

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over banksters and politicians.
Today, modern crookery, 21st century modern bribery style.  In very left wing New York City, this was always going to fly like a lead balloon. But NYC still needs to attract more Amazons. The loony left are good at destroying jobs but hopeless at creating them.

“The world is a place that’s gone from being flat to round to crooked.”

Mad Magazine.

Amazon riled up the left for not paying federal taxes — and it’s in a position to offset future profits, too

Published: Feb 15, 2019 1:15 p.m. ET

Amazon has significant current and future tax liabilities that can be offset with existing credits

Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez slammed Amazon for getting a federal tax refund despite booking billions in profit the last two years.

A close look at Amazon’s AMZN, -0.91%  finances shows the Vermont independent and Bronx
Democrat will have more to get upset about, because the internet giant has billions of dollars in various credits it could apply to offset future taxes as well.

As of Dec. 31, Amazon had federal operating loss carryforwards of $627 million, foreign balances of $7.8 billion, and state balances of $919 million.

Net operating loss carryforwards are created when a company’s deductions for the year are more than its income. Companies can use a federal tax loss carryforward by deducting it from their income in another year or years.

If not utilized, a portion of the federal, foreign, and state net operating loss carryforwards will begin to expire — some as early as the end of this year — which means you can expect to see Amazon report at least enough net income in 2019 to take advantage of the foreign and state net operating loss carryforwards rather than allow them to expire unused.

Amazon also has tax credit carryforwards of approximately $1.7 billion and federal capital loss carryforwards for income tax purposes was approximately $261 million. A portion of those tax credit carryforwards will begin to expire in 2022.

Sanders, who may again seek the Democratic nomination for president, and Ocasio-Cortez reacted over social media this week to the revelation Amazon didn’t pay federal taxes on its hefty earnings.

Left unsaid was that Amazon refund is because of credits earned during several years of losses, and others baked in the tax code that every public company including Amazon can take full advantage of. Amazon still had to set aside $565 million for future federal income taxes due, and make an overall $1.2 billion net tax provision that reduced its 2018 net income.

Amazon did pay out $1.184 billion in cash for state, local and international taxes due for 2018.

The criticism was sparked by a report published by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a non-profit, non-partisan tax policy organization.

Related: The Sanders-Schumer buyback test would block almost all company stock repurchases

ITEP and Sanders are correct when they say Amazon nearly doubled its profits to $11.2 billion in 2018 from $5.6 billion in 2018 and, didn’t spend any cash for U.S. federal taxes in either year. In fact, the company got a tax refund both years, $129 million in 2018 and $137 million in 2017.

Amazon also deposited 250 million euros into escrow in March 2018 as result of a decision by the European Commission that tax authorities in Luxembourg did not comply with rules on state aid when dealing with Amazon between May 2006 through June 2014.

Amazon benefitted greatly from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and recorded a provisional tax benefit at the end of 2017 for the impact of Trump’s tax reform of approximately $789 million.
More

This is what Amazon’s ‘HQ2’ was going to cost New York taxpayers

Published: Feb 16, 2019 7:44 a.m. ET

New York was set to give Amazon more in tax breaks and credits than Virginia

Winning the bidding war for Amazon’s AMZN, -0.91% secondary corporate headquarters came with a steep price tag — $3.4 billion.

That’s the total amount in tax incentives and grants that state and local officials in New York and Virginia offered the e-commerce giant as part of their bids to house “HQ2” in Long Island City, N.Y., and Arlington Country, Va., respectively.

Before the HQ2 announcement, Amazon had received roughly $1.61 billion in subsidies from state and local governments over roughly the past two decades, according to data collected by Good Jobs First, an advocacy group that tracks corporate accountability.

Winning the bidding war for Amazon’s AMZN, -0.91% secondary corporate headquarters came with a steep price tag — $3.4 billion.

That’s the total amount in tax incentives and grants that state and local officials in New York and Virginia offered the e-commerce giant as part of their bids to house “HQ2” in Long Island City, N.Y., and Arlington Country, Va., respectively.

Before the HQ2 announcement, Amazon had received roughly $1.61 billion in subsidies from state and local governments over roughly the past two decades, according to data collected by Good Jobs First, an advocacy group that tracks corporate accountability.

----For the Long Island City location, Amazon was going to receive $1.2 billion in refundable tax credits through New York State’s Excelsior Jobs Program if the company created 25,000 net new jobs in New York State by the end of June 2028. New York State had also promised a $505 million capital grant to reimburse Amazon for the costs associated with building its office space.

Amazon also planned to take advantage of incentives through New York City’s Industrial and Commercial Abatement Program and New York City’s Relocation and Employment Assistance Program (REAP). Unlike the incentive offered by state officials, these city programs are available to any businesses that meet their specific requirements. Tax breaks through REAP, for instance, could have added up to $900 million.
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"It's strange that men should take up crime when there are so many legal ways to be dishonest. “

Al Capone

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Graphene-based wearables for health monitoring, food inspection and night vision

Date: February 15, 2019

Source: Graphene Flagship

Summary: Scientists have developed dozens of new graphene-based prototypes. These technologies aim to turn mobile phones into life saving devices.

The first of ICFO's devices on display will allow customers to monitor their level of exposure to sunlight through a UV sensor. Designed as a flexible, transparent and disposable patch, it connects to a mobile device and alerts the user once he or she has reached a defined threshold of sun exposure.

Using the same core technology as the UV patch, ICFO's fitness band is being developed to measure heart rate, hydration, oxygen saturation, breathing rate and temperature, while monitoring the user when he or she is exercising, for example. However, the fitness band does more than simply measure physical activity.

Consider the following scenario. A person is trekking in the remote amazon jungle with limited access to water. By measuring the skin hydration of their body with ICFO's fitness band, the user can optimize water intake, preventing any sort of dehydration. Similarly, an explorer hiking to the peak of mount Everest could use the band to accurately monitor oxygen saturation in blood. The high altitude can severely effect oxygen saturation in the body. Using the band, the hiker could monitor these levels and emit a warning if oxygen saturation in the blood decreases drastically below a certain level.

In addition to these prototypes being exhibited at MWC 2019, ICFO will also showcase two other light-based graphene technologies. These include the world's smallest single pixel spectrometer and a graphene-enabled hyperspectral image sensor, both with broadband capabilities, beyond to what was once perceived possible without the use of costly and bulky photodetection systems.

By enabling spectroscopy in such small dimensions, consumers could now be equipped with tools that previously were only available to highly specialised laboratories. From the detection of counterfeit drugs to the identification of harmful substances within a product that we use or food that we eat, compact, low-cost spectrometers could become an indispensable accessory of our everyday life.

"Built into a smart phone camera, the graphene-based camera sensor allows phones to see more than what's visible to the human eye," comments Frank Koppens, group leader at Graphene Flagship partner ICFO, and Chair of the Graphene Flagship MWC Committee. "Made up of hundreds of thousands of photodetectors, this incredibly small sensor is highly sensitive to UV and infrared light."

"This technology would allow users in the supermarket to hold the camera to fruit and infer which is the freshest piece. Or, in a more extreme example, the camera could be used for driving in dangerously dense fog by providing augmented outlines of surrounding vehicles on the windscreen."


The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January.

DJIA: 24,999 +76 Down. NASDAQ: 7,282 +124 Down. SP500: 2,704 +71 Down. 
Normally this would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team, probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the major indexes.

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