Baltic Dry Index. 649
+12 Brent
Crude 65.59
“No government ever voluntarily reduces itself in size.
Government programs, once launched, never disappear. Actually, a government
bureau is the nearest thing to eternal life we’ll ever see on this
earth!”
Ronald Reagan.
For more on the bottom of the bowl in trade wars, scroll down to Crooks Corner. Is Canada about to
turn America’s clock back 150 years?
Despite Fed Chairman Powell, [chair,
sofa, pouffe, your PC choice here,] confirming yesterday that he’s an active
player in President Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign, US and Asian stocks were
underwhelmed and confused by yesterday's US data.
While the US economy seems to
be slowing along with the rest of the world, US consumer confidence jumped, and
Goldman thinks the bottoms in. Still, they would say that wouldn’t they, and
Goldie has form in betting against the clients, affectionally aka at Goldie, as “muppets.”
Below, today’s coin toss.
Asia shares inch up, dollar near three-week low after Powell comments
February 27, 2019
/ 1:29 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Asian shares inched towards a five-month high on Wednesday and the dollar
hovered near a three-week low after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell
reinforced the U.S. central bank’s shift to a more “patient” approach on policy
in the face of a slowing economy.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced
nearly 0.2 percent, climbing back toward the five-month peak scaled on Monday.
Japan’s Nikkei share average gained half a percent, while Australian
stocks were 0.2 percent higher.
China’s blue-chip CSI300 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also rose, by
0.4 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.
U.S. stock futures were basically flat, with E-Minis for the S&P 500
holding steady following a technical disruption that halted trading for hours.
“There is a fear in the market that sentiment has got a bit carried away
on the positive side, especially given the experiences we had through October
and through December, when we had some really sharp downward corrections,” said
Nick Twidale, Sydney-based chief operating officer at Rakuten Securities
Australia.
---- Powell, spelling out the Fed’s approach to an economy that is likely slowing, told U.S. lawmakers on Tuesday it is in “no rush to make a judgment” about further changes to interest rates.
In two hours of testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, Powell
elaborated on the “conflicting signals” the Fed has tried to decipher in recent
weeks, including disappointing data on retail sales and other aspects of the
economy that contrast with steady hiring, wage growth, and ongoing low
unemployment.
More evidence of the hot and cold economy came overnight, with
weaker-than-expected U.S. housing data and a rosy consumer confidence report..
U.S. homebuilding tumbled to a more than two-year low in December as
construction of both single and multi-family housing declined, which
overshadowed the rebound in consumer confidence in February after three months
of declines.
More
The Global Economy May Have Bottomed Out Already, Goldman Says
By Malcolm Scott
Updated on 27 February 2019, 03:05 GMT
The global economy may have already bottomed out, according to Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius.
While growth remains soft, Goldman’s current activity indicator in
February is slightly above the downwardly-revised December and January numbers.
"Some green shoots are emerging that suggest that sequential growth
will pick up from here," Hatzius and Sven Jari Stehn wrote in a note dated
Feb. 26. Still, the risk to Goldman’s global GDP forecast of 3.5 percent for
2019 "is probably still on the downside."
On markets, Goldman:
- remains positive on risk assets, although upside is now probably lower as markets have become "more sanguine on recession"
- expects bond yields to rise
- maintains a bearish dollar view, given a dovish Fed and expectation for a pickup in global growth
- is modestly bullish on oil over the next 2-3 months, but sees a more bearish outlook for the remainder of the year
The case for a pickup from the current pace is strongest in the U.S. as
the drag from a tightening of financial conditions eases, according to Hatzius.
More
Goldman executive: we call our clients muppets
·
The world’s most powerful investment bank came under devastating attack
for its “toxic and destructive” culture today from one of its London-based
executives.
Greg Smith said he had quit Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs because of a
collapse of its “moral fibre”. He described how bankers at Goldman Sachs
referred to their clients, who include the British and Greek governments, as
“muppets”.
Mr
Smith, an equities expert in his 30s, said: “It makes me ill how callously
people talk about ripping their clients off.” Other clients include HSBC, BP,
Tesco and Ocado. He said the bank had “veered so far from the place I joined
right out of college that I can no longer in good conscience say that I
identify with what it stands for”.
More
In
other news, President Trump summits with new best buddy North Korean dictator Kim,
while in commodities a glitch and possible new scandal emerges.
Glitch forces CME Group to halt electronic futures trading
By Saumya
Vaishampayan Published: Feb 26, 2019
10:32 p.m. ET
Exchange operator CME Group Inc. said electronic
trading across its futures markets was halted late Tuesday evening due to
“technical issues” and that it is trying to fix the problem.The Chicago-based company said the halt affected all markets on its Globex electronic trading platform, according to a recording on its global command center phone number and a message on its official Twitter account at 8:48 p.m. Eastern time. Another post said CME has identified the problem and is working to resolve it.
CME CME, +0.35% , the world’s largest exchange operator by market capitalization, offers futures and options contracts for an array of assets, including soybeans, wheat, crude oil and U.S. stocks.
Trading on Nymex, Comex and CBOT were also affected by the glitch, a CME spokeswoman said.
The last live quote for e-mini S&P 500 futures was around 7:40 p.m. Eastern time, according to FactSet. These are the most-liquid contracts available for U.S. stocks and are traded virtually around the clock. At 10:02 p.m., CME said all its markets would resume trading by 10:45 p.m. Eastern time. It added that all “day and session orders” with Tuesday’s date would be canceled.
Cohen to testify that Trump engaged in criminal conduct while in office.
In Aluminium, curiouser and curiouser. Another Malaysian scandal brewing, or a mere misunderstanding among friends? Is there any Ali
missing in Port Klang?
To this old dinosaur commodities trader, maybe there’s no fire but there’s
certainly an awful lot of smoke. If it turns out a large quantity of Ali has gone on walkabout,
President Trump has picked the wrong time for US tariffs on Canadian Ali.
Exclusive: Glencore complains to LME about access to metal in Malaysia
February 26,
2019 / 1:11 PM
LONDON (Reuters) - Glencore has lodged a complaint with the London Metal
Exchange (LME) about the company’s inability to take speedy delivery of
aluminium from warehouses owned by ISTIM UK in Port Klang, Malaysia, two
sources familiar with the matter said.
London-listed commodity trader and miner Glencore bought 200,000 tonnes
of aluminium on the LME late in January and made preparations to take that
metal from ISTIM’s warehouses.
Metal entering the LME’s global warehouse storage network is issued with
a title document called a warrant. In order to take delivery of metal from the
network, buyers need to cancel the warrants - earmarking it for delivery.
The metal is then shipped after being scheduled for delivery on a first
come, first served basis.
To get the metal out quickly, Glencore moved to complete the formalities
and create a queue of more than 50 days before the end of January, which would
have activated the LME’s load-in, load-out (LILO) rules for warehousing, the
sources said.
LILO rules were ushered in as part of sweeping LME reform sparked by
accusations from consumers that banks and traders were hoarding metal in LME
warehouses.
The rules stipulate that if a warehouse has a queue of more than 50
days, it must load out all the metal delivered in the previous three months.
But the rules were not triggered in this case because ISTIM said there
was no queue at its warehouses in Port Klang at the close of business on Jan.
31, sources said.
“The
load-out rules are complicated and ISTIM ... argue they didn’t have a queue in
January, that the queue didn’t exist before midnight February 1,” a metal
industry source said.
LME data shows queues to take aluminium out of LME-approved warehouses
owned by ISTIM in Port Klang jumped to 118 days at the end of January from zero
in December.
This means the 222,713 tonnes deposited in ISTIM’s warehouses in Port
Klang between November and January would have had to be delivered in February,
March and April. That would be above ISTIM’s 2,500-tonne daily rate.
More
Finally, plastics.
How do you solve a problem like plastic? GB posits an answer. As usual, the
governments answer is more taxes.
“Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few
short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it
stops moving, subsidize it.”
Ronald Reagan.
Government spells out plans for reforming waste system / Consultation outlines proposal for plastic packaging tax / BPF gives cautious welcome
The
British Plastics Federation (London / UK; www.bpf.co.uk) has given
a cautious welcome to government proposals to overhaul the waste system in the
UK that include forcing packaging producers to pay for the cost of dealing with
the waste they produce. UK environment secretary Michael Gove set out
the plans published earlier this week, which as well as the “producers pay”
target included reducing plastics pollution, more consistent household
recycling in England and a planned deposit-return scheme for cans and bottles
in England (see Plasteurope.com of 05.04.2018),
Wales and Northern Ireland.
To
improve the recycling of an estimated 3 bn plastic bottles that are
incinerated, landfilled or littered in the UK, the government has proposed two
options. One is the “all-in” model that would target beverage containers of any
size. The second option, the “on-the-go” model, would restrict drinks
containers to those less than 750 ml in size. The government looks to the
success of deposit-return systems operating in countries like Denmark, Finland,
Germany – see Plasteurope.com of 25.02.2019
– the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden, where return rates are high.
The BPF’s director-general Philip Law said his organisation had been calling on government to improve the UK’s recycling system for a number of years. “In broad strokes these consultations represent a positive step in that direction,” he added.
Law said the BPF wanted to see a drive to improved consistency in collections to ensure more plastic material was collected for recycling. Life should also be made easier for consumers to recycle, packaging designed in such a way as to minimise waste, measures that would control the export of waste packaging materials should be implemented and partnership working by councils increased to improve efficiencies. “It is also true that in efforts to protect our ecosystems we must take account of the sustainable advantages of plastic packaging, namely in reducing food waste and helping lower greenhouse gas emissions.”
The BPF’s director-general Philip Law said his organisation had been calling on government to improve the UK’s recycling system for a number of years. “In broad strokes these consultations represent a positive step in that direction,” he added.
Law said the BPF wanted to see a drive to improved consistency in collections to ensure more plastic material was collected for recycling. Life should also be made easier for consumers to recycle, packaging designed in such a way as to minimise waste, measures that would control the export of waste packaging materials should be implemented and partnership working by councils increased to improve efficiencies. “It is also true that in efforts to protect our ecosystems we must take account of the sustainable advantages of plastic packaging, namely in reducing food waste and helping lower greenhouse gas emissions.”
Regarding the
government’s plan to tax plastic packaging that did not meet the minimum 30%
recycled content threshold, Gove said it would “address the current issue of it
often being cheaper to use new, non-recycled plastic material despite its
greater environmental impact.” The consultation
on the planned plastic packaging tax – see Plasteurope.com of 31.10.2018
– closes on 12 May 2019.
Alluding to proposed taxation on plastic packaging, Law said, “It is also essential that in these actions the government ensures the cost burden to both consumers and businesses is minimised, and that the manufacturing industry in the UK is not disadvantaged, especially at this time of economic uncertainty when our industry needs the support of government to ensure it remains a strong force on the global stage.”
In a report published in 2018, Eunomia had noted the complexity of materials taxation as a policy option in relation to necessary border tax adjustments and the need to understand the primary and recyclate content of all materials imported and exported – Plasteurope.com of 03.12.2018. A fee-rebate scheme was favoured.
Alluding to proposed taxation on plastic packaging, Law said, “It is also essential that in these actions the government ensures the cost burden to both consumers and businesses is minimised, and that the manufacturing industry in the UK is not disadvantaged, especially at this time of economic uncertainty when our industry needs the support of government to ensure it remains a strong force on the global stage.”
In a report published in 2018, Eunomia had noted the complexity of materials taxation as a policy option in relation to necessary border tax adjustments and the need to understand the primary and recyclate content of all materials imported and exported – Plasteurope.com of 03.12.2018. A fee-rebate scheme was favoured.
Published
on 25.02.2019
“Government does not tax to get the money it needs; government
always finds a need for the money it gets.”
Ronald Reagan.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, is a new trade war about to break out between Canada and America? Is
Canada about to fight dirty to clean up? By blocking access to Canadian wood,
is Canada about to force America’s “toilette paper” back to “corncobs” once
again? Is Canada’s Trudeau, about to hit nemesis Trump below the belt and in the rear?
Below, has Canada finally reached the bottom of the bowl?
U.S. plush toilet paper use wiping out Canada's forests, flushing away the future: report
The report gave failing grades to the leading toilet paper, tissue and paper towel brands for using only virgin fibre pulp, mostly from Canada’s old boreal forests
February 25, 2019 8:20 PM EST
The voracious use of toilet paper in the United States —
with the average American using almost three rolls each week and major
manufacturers spurning alternative fibres — is destroying Canada’s forests and
causing widespread environmental damage, two international environmental groups
say.A report on tissue paper use gave failing grades to the leading toilet paper, tissue and paper towel brands for using only virgin fibre pulp, mostly from Canada’s old boreal forests.
“Forests are too vital to flush away,” says the report, called The Issue With Tissue, released Wednesday by Natural Resources Defense Council and Stand.earth, international nonprofit environmental organizations that cooperated on the study.
The report hammered the three biggest tissue producers in the U.S. — Procter & Gamble, Georgia-Pacific, and Kimberly-Clark — over their big, recognizable brands such as Charmin, Cottonelle, Brawny, Bounty, Kleenex, Angel Soft, Quilted Northern and Viva.
“None of their flagship at-home brands contain recycled materials or alternative fibres, and each company misses other key commitments necessary to ensure their products do not come at the expense of the boreal forest,” according to the report.
The report also unrolls the incredible toilet paper use by consumers in
the U.S., noting that just 150 years ago Americans used corncobs to clean up,
but have since been drummed by marketing campaigns to demand the softest tissue
they can get, which comes from Canada’s softwood.
The U.S. consumes more toilet paper than any other country, almost three
rolls per person each week. The U.S. is followed by Germany and Britain in
annual toilet paper consumption. They far out-pace the other nations. Canada
isn’t in the top 10.
It’s created an industry absorbing $31 billion in revenue every year in
the U.S, the report says.
Compounding the environmental concerns is that all of those trees turned
into pulp and made into tissue are then flushed down the toilet without
recycling diversion.
More
How To Shuck Corn Quickly & Cleanly
How many corncobs do American’s need to stockpile? How many corncobs does
Uncle Scam have? Are the corncobs supposed to be shucked or pristine? Once used, do they go in the garbage or down
the pan? How many corncobs fit down the sewage pipes of the average Manhattan
skyscraper? What happens when they all reach a sewage plant en-mass? Doesn’t it make more sense just to use the
shucked leaves rather than the cobs themselves, or is that too British for most
hardy, rugged, North Americans?
Trade wars are funny old things, often producing some odd results. Could the
Dakota’s unsold soybean mountains be of some help? But what happens if China
gets to them first? Maybe Trudeau will have pity
on Trump.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
US senators press for China’s Huawei to be excluded from solar power market as those systems are ‘vulnerable to cyberattacks’
·
‘Both large-scale photovoltaic systems and those
used by homeowners, school districts, and businesses are equally vulnerable to
cyberattacks,’ the lawmakers say
Updated: Tuesday, 26 Feb, 2019 4:27am
A bipartisan group of senators on Monday urged the
US government to block Huawei Technologies from supplying solar energy
generators just as it has acted to keep the Chinese giant out of the US
telecommunications network.
The 11 lawmakers urged the Department of Homeland
Security and the Energy Department to prevent Huawei from providing solar
inverters, which convert solar energy to power that is usable on power grids
for US energy companies.
A bipartisan group of senators on Monday urged the
US government to block Huawei Technologies from supplying solar energy
generators just as it has acted to keep the Chinese giant out of the US
telecommunications network.
The 11 lawmakers urged the Department of Homeland
Security and the Energy Department to prevent Huawei from providing solar
inverters, which convert solar energy to power that is usable on power grids
for US energy companies.
“Both
large-scale photovoltaic systems and those used by homeowners, school districts
and businesses are equally vulnerable to cyberattacks. Our federal government should
consider a ban on the use of Huawei inverters in the United States,” the
lawmakers said in a letter.
The letter was signed by Republican Senators John
Cornyn, Richard Burr, James Risch, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, Susan Collins, Ben
Sasse and Mitt Romney; Democratic Senators Mark Warner and Dianne Feinstein;
and independent Angus King.
Huawei is a relatively recent entrant to the US
power market, but has developed a new generation of low-cost solar inverters,
which convert, manage and monitor energy produced by solar panels for home use.
The United States has sought to exclude Huawei
from providing equipment like routers and switches to American
telecommunications companies, and has accused the firm of conspiring to violate
sanctions on Iran and stealing US technology.
“We don’t have a trillion-dollar debt because we haven’t taxed
enough; we have a trillion-dollar debt because we spend too much.”
Ronald Reagan.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January
DJIA: 24,999 +76 Down. NASDAQ: 7,282 +124 Down.
SP500:
2,704 +71 Down.
Normally this
would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting
to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge
Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team,
probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on
most of the major indexes.
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