Wednesday, 27 February 2019

The Bottom of the Bowl? Confusion. Muppets.


Baltic Dry Index. 649 +12    Brent Crude 65.59

Trump 25 percent tariffs. Postponed.  Brexit 31 days away.

“No government ever voluntarily reduces itself in size. Government programs, once launched, never disappear. Actually, a government bureau is the nearest thing to eternal life we’ll ever see on this earth!” 
Ronald Reagan.
For more on the bottom of the bowl in trade wars, scroll down to Crooks Corner. Is Canada about to turn America’s clock back 150 years?
Despite Fed Chairman Powell, [chair, sofa, pouffe, your PC choice here,] confirming yesterday that he’s an active player in President Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign, US and Asian stocks were underwhelmed and confused by yesterday's US data.
While the US economy seems to be slowing along with the rest of the world, US consumer confidence jumped, and Goldman thinks the bottoms in. Still, they would say that wouldn’t they, and Goldie has form in betting against the clients, affectionally  aka at Goldie, as “muppets.”
Below, today’s coin toss.

Asia shares inch up, dollar near three-week low after Powell comments

February 27, 2019 / 1:29 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares inched towards a five-month high on Wednesday and the dollar hovered near a three-week low after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced the U.S. central bank’s shift to a more “patient” approach on policy in the face of a slowing economy.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced nearly 0.2 percent, climbing back toward the five-month peak scaled on Monday.

Japan’s Nikkei share average gained half a percent, while Australian stocks were 0.2 percent higher.
China’s blue-chip CSI300 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also rose, by 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.

U.S. stock futures were basically flat, with E-Minis for the S&P 500 holding steady following a technical disruption that halted trading for hours.

“There is a fear in the market that sentiment has got a bit carried away on the positive side, especially given the experiences we had through October and through December, when we had some really sharp downward corrections,” said Nick Twidale, Sydney-based chief operating officer at Rakuten Securities Australia.

---- Powell, spelling out the Fed’s approach to an economy that is likely slowing, told U.S. lawmakers on Tuesday it is in “no rush to make a judgment” about further changes to interest rates.

In two hours of testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, Powell elaborated on the “conflicting signals” the Fed has tried to decipher in recent weeks, including disappointing data on retail sales and other aspects of the economy that contrast with steady hiring, wage growth, and ongoing low unemployment.

More evidence of the hot and cold economy came overnight, with weaker-than-expected U.S. housing data and a rosy consumer confidence report..

U.S. homebuilding tumbled to a more than two-year low in December as construction of both single and multi-family housing declined, which overshadowed the rebound in consumer confidence in February after three months of declines.
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The Global Economy May Have Bottomed Out Already, Goldman Says

By Malcolm Scott
Updated on 27 February 2019, 03:05 GMT
The global economy may have already bottomed out, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius.

While growth remains soft, Goldman’s current activity indicator in February is slightly above the downwardly-revised December and January numbers.

"Some green shoots are emerging that suggest that sequential growth will pick up from here," Hatzius and Sven Jari Stehn wrote in a note dated Feb. 26. Still, the risk to Goldman’s global GDP forecast of 3.5 percent for 2019 "is probably still on the downside."

On markets, Goldman:
  • remains positive on risk assets, although upside is now probably lower as markets have become "more sanguine on recession"
  • expects bond yields to rise
  • maintains a bearish dollar view, given a dovish Fed and expectation for a pickup in global growth
  • is modestly bullish on oil over the next 2-3 months, but sees a more bearish outlook for the remainder of the year
The case for a pickup from the current pace is strongest in the U.S. as the drag from a tightening of financial conditions eases, according to Hatzius.
More

Goldman executive: we call our clients muppets

·        
The world’s most powerful investment bank came under devastating attack for its “toxic and destructive” culture today from one of its London-based executives.

Greg Smith said he had quit Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs because of a collapse of its “moral fibre”. He described how bankers at Goldman Sachs referred to their clients, who include the British and Greek governments, as “muppets”.

Mr Smith, an equities expert in his 30s, said: “It makes me ill how callously people talk about ripping their clients off.” Other clients include HSBC, BP, Tesco and Ocado. He said the bank had “veered so far from the place I joined right out of college that I can no longer in good conscience say that I identify with what it stands for”.
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In other news, President Trump summits with new best buddy North Korean dictator Kim, while in commodities a glitch and possible new scandal emerges.

Glitch forces CME Group to halt electronic futures trading

By Saumya Vaishampayan  Published: Feb 26, 2019 10:32 p.m. ET
Exchange operator CME Group Inc. said electronic trading across its futures markets was halted late Tuesday evening due to “technical issues” and that it is trying to fix the problem.

The Chicago-based company said the halt affected all markets on its Globex electronic trading platform, according to a recording on its global command center phone number and a message on its official Twitter account at 8:48 p.m. Eastern time. Another post said CME has identified the problem and is working to resolve it.

CME CME, +0.35%  , the world’s largest exchange operator by market capitalization, offers futures and options contracts for an array of assets, including soybeans, wheat, crude oil and U.S. stocks.
Trading on Nymex, Comex and CBOT were also affected by the glitch, a CME spokeswoman said.

The last live quote for e-mini S&P 500 futures was around 7:40 p.m. Eastern time, according to FactSet. These are the most-liquid contracts available for U.S. stocks and are traded virtually around the clock. At 10:02 p.m., CME said all its markets would resume trading by 10:45 p.m. Eastern time. It added that all “day and session orders” with Tuesday’s date would be canceled.

Cohen to testify that Trump engaged in criminal conduct while in office.
In Aluminium, curiouser and curiouser. Another Malaysian scandal brewing, or a mere misunderstanding among friends? Is there any Ali missing in Port Klang?
To this old dinosaur commodities trader, maybe there’s no fire but there’s certainly an awful lot of smoke. If it turns out a large quantity of Ali has gone  on walkabout, President Trump has picked the wrong time for US tariffs on Canadian Ali.

Exclusive: Glencore complains to LME about access to metal in Malaysia

February 26, 2019 / 1:11 PM

LONDON (Reuters) - Glencore has lodged a complaint with the London Metal Exchange (LME) about the company’s inability to take speedy delivery of aluminium from warehouses owned by ISTIM UK in Port Klang, Malaysia, two sources familiar with the matter said.

London-listed commodity trader and miner Glencore bought 200,000 tonnes of aluminium on the LME late in January and made preparations to take that metal from ISTIM’s warehouses.

Metal entering the LME’s global warehouse storage network is issued with a title document called a warrant. In order to take delivery of metal from the network, buyers need to cancel the warrants - earmarking it for delivery.

The metal is then shipped after being scheduled for delivery on a first come, first served basis.

To get the metal out quickly, Glencore moved to complete the formalities and create a queue of more than 50 days before the end of January, which would have activated the LME’s load-in, load-out (LILO) rules for warehousing, the sources said.

LILO rules were ushered in as part of sweeping LME reform sparked by accusations from consumers that banks and traders were hoarding metal in LME warehouses.

The rules stipulate that if a warehouse has a queue of more than 50 days, it must load out all the metal delivered in the previous three months.

But the rules were not triggered in this case because ISTIM said there was no queue at its warehouses in Port Klang at the close of business on Jan. 31, sources said.
“The load-out rules are complicated and ISTIM ... argue they didn’t have a queue in January, that the queue didn’t exist before midnight February 1,” a metal industry source said.
LME data shows queues to take aluminium out of LME-approved warehouses owned by ISTIM in Port Klang jumped to 118 days at the end of January from zero in December.

This means the 222,713 tonnes deposited in ISTIM’s warehouses in Port Klang between November and January would have had to be delivered in February, March and April. That would be above ISTIM’s 2,500-tonne daily rate.
More
Finally, plastics. How do you solve a problem like plastic? GB posits an answer. As usual, the governments answer is more taxes.
“Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.” 
Ronald Reagan.

Government spells out plans for reforming waste system / Consultation outlines proposal for plastic packaging tax / BPF gives cautious welcome

The British Plastics Federation (London / UK; www.bpf.co.uk) has given a cautious welcome to government proposals to overhaul the waste system in the UK that include forcing packaging producers to pay for the cost of dealing with the waste they produce. UK environment secretary Michael Gove set out the plans published earlier this week, which as well as the “producers pay” target included reducing plastics pollution, more consistent household recycling in England and a planned deposit-return scheme for cans and bottles in England (see Plasteurope.com of 05.04.2018), Wales and Northern Ireland.
To improve the recycling of an estimated 3 bn plastic bottles that are incinerated, landfilled or littered in the UK, the government has proposed two options. One is the “all-in” model that would target beverage containers of any size. The second option, the “on-the-go” model, would restrict drinks containers to those less than 750 ml in size. The government looks to the success of deposit-return systems operating in countries like Denmark, Finland, Germany – see Plasteurope.com of 25.02.2019 – the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden, where return rates are high.

The BPF’s director-general Philip Law said his organisation had been calling on government to improve the UK’s recycling system for a number of years. “In broad strokes these consultations represent a positive step in that direction,” he added.

Law said the BPF wanted to see a drive to improved consistency in collections to ensure more plastic material was collected for recycling. Life should also be made easier for consumers to recycle, packaging designed in such a way as to minimise waste, measures that would control the export of waste packaging materials should be implemented and partnership working by councils increased to improve efficiencies. “It is also true that in efforts to protect our ecosystems we must take account of the sustainable advantages of plastic packaging, namely in reducing food waste and helping lower greenhouse gas emissions.”
Regarding the government’s plan to tax plastic packaging that did not meet the minimum 30% recycled content threshold, Gove said it would “address the current issue of it often being cheaper to use new, non-recycled plastic material despite its greater environmental impact.” The consultation on the planned plastic packaging tax – see Plasteurope.com of 31.10.2018 – closes on 12 May 2019.

Alluding to proposed taxation on plastic packaging, Law said, “It is also essential that in these actions the government ensures the cost burden to both consumers and businesses is minimised, and that the manufacturing industry in the UK is not disadvantaged, especially at this time of economic uncertainty when our industry needs the support of government to ensure it remains a strong force on the global stage.”

In a report published in 2018, Eunomia had noted the complexity of materials taxation as a policy option in relation to necessary border tax adjustments and the need to understand the primary and recyclate content of all materials imported and exported – Plasteurope.com of 03.12.2018. A fee-rebate scheme was favoured.
Published on 25.02.2019
“Government does not tax to get the money it needs; government always finds a need for the money it gets.” 
Ronald Reagan.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

 The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, is a new trade war about to break out between Canada and America? Is Canada about to fight dirty to clean up? By blocking access to Canadian wood, is Canada about to force America’s “toilette paper” back to “corncobs” once again? Is Canada’s Trudeau, about to hit nemesis Trump below the belt and in the rear?
Below, has Canada finally reached the bottom of the bowl?

U.S. plush toilet paper use wiping out Canada's forests, flushing away the future: report

The report gave failing grades to the leading toilet paper, tissue and paper towel brands for using only virgin fibre pulp, mostly from Canada’s old boreal forests

February 25, 2019 8:20 PM EST
The voracious use of toilet paper in the United States — with the average American using almost three rolls each week and major manufacturers spurning alternative fibres — is destroying Canada’s forests and causing widespread environmental damage, two international environmental groups say.

A report on tissue paper use gave failing grades to the leading toilet paper, tissue and paper towel brands for using only virgin fibre pulp, mostly from Canada’s old boreal forests.

“Forests are too vital to flush away,” says the report, called The Issue With Tissue, released Wednesday by Natural Resources Defense Council and Stand.earth, international nonprofit environmental organizations that cooperated on the study.

The report hammered the three biggest tissue producers in the U.S. — Procter & Gamble, Georgia-Pacific, and Kimberly-Clark — over their big, recognizable brands such as Charmin, Cottonelle, Brawny, Bounty, Kleenex, Angel Soft, Quilted Northern and Viva.

“None of their flagship at-home brands contain recycled materials or alternative fibres, and each company misses other key commitments necessary to ensure their products do not come at the expense of the boreal forest,” according to the report.

The report also unrolls the incredible toilet paper use by consumers in the U.S., noting that just 150 years ago Americans used corncobs to clean up, but have since been drummed by marketing campaigns to demand the softest tissue they can get, which comes from Canada’s softwood.

The U.S. consumes more toilet paper than any other country, almost three rolls per person each week. The U.S. is followed by Germany and Britain in annual toilet paper consumption. They far out-pace the other nations. Canada isn’t in the top 10.

It’s created an industry absorbing $31 billion in revenue every year in the U.S, the report says.
Compounding the environmental concerns is that all of those trees turned into pulp and made into tissue are then flushed down the toilet without recycling diversion.
More

How To Shuck Corn Quickly & Cleanly

How many corncobs do American’s need to stockpile? How many corncobs does Uncle Scam have? Are the corncobs supposed to be shucked or pristine?  Once used, do they go in the garbage or down the pan? How many corncobs fit down the sewage pipes of the average Manhattan skyscraper? What happens when they all reach a sewage plant en-mass?  Doesn’t it make more sense just to use the shucked leaves rather than the cobs themselves, or is that too British for most hardy, rugged, North Americans?
Trade wars are funny old things, often producing some odd results. Could the Dakota’s unsold soybean mountains be of some help? But what happens if China gets to them first? Maybe Trudeau will have pity on Trump.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

US senators press for China’s Huawei to be excluded from solar power market as those systems are ‘vulnerable to cyberattacks’

·         ‘Both large-scale photovoltaic systems and those used by homeowners, school districts, and businesses are equally vulnerable to cyberattacks,’ the lawmakers say
Updated: Tuesday, 26 Feb, 2019 4:27am

A bipartisan group of senators on Monday urged the US government to block Huawei Technologies from supplying solar energy generators just as it has acted to keep the Chinese giant out of the US telecommunications network.

The 11 lawmakers urged the Department of Homeland Security and the Energy Department to prevent Huawei from providing solar inverters, which convert solar energy to power that is usable on power grids for US energy companies.

A bipartisan group of senators on Monday urged the US government to block Huawei Technologies from supplying solar energy generators just as it has acted to keep the Chinese giant out of the US telecommunications network.

The 11 lawmakers urged the Department of Homeland Security and the Energy Department to prevent Huawei from providing solar inverters, which convert solar energy to power that is usable on power grids for US energy companies.


“Both large-scale photovoltaic systems and those used by homeowners, school districts and businesses are equally vulnerable to cyberattacks. Our federal government should consider a ban on the use of Huawei inverters in the United States,” the lawmakers said in a letter.

The letter was signed by Republican Senators John Cornyn, Richard Burr, James Risch, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, Susan Collins, Ben Sasse and Mitt Romney; Democratic Senators Mark Warner and Dianne Feinstein; and independent Angus King.

Huawei is a relatively recent entrant to the US power market, but has developed a new generation of low-cost solar inverters, which convert, manage and monitor energy produced by solar panels for home use.
The United States has sought to exclude Huawei from providing equipment like routers and switches to American telecommunications companies, and has accused the firm of conspiring to violate sanctions on Iran and stealing US technology.

We don’t have a trillion-dollar debt because we haven’t taxed enough; we have a trillion-dollar debt because we spend too much.
Ronald Reagan.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January

DJIA: 24,999 +76 Down. NASDAQ: 7,282 +124 Down. SP500: 2,704 +71 Down. 
Normally this would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team, probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the major indexes.

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