Baltic Dry Index. 630
+08 Brent
Crude 67.02
John Kenneth
Galbraith. The Great Crash: 1929
Another Friday, and still no trade deal between China
and the USA., and now the markets have a new worry to focus on. Is the US economy
joining the rest of the world in starting to wobble? Has all the trade wars
already made a new global recession inevitable? Europe’s up next for trade war
team Trump.
Adding to all the global fears, a new trade war seems
to have broken out between China and Australia. Probably add between China and
GB, once the Royal Navy sends it new aircraft carrier sailing in China’s
disputed South China Sea. Just the announcement collapsed Chancellor Hammond's
pre-Brexit trip to Beijing.
Below, the global economy goes on suicide watch.
Asia shares fall as weakening global outlook offsets trade progress
February 22, 2019
/ 12:51 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters)
- Shares in Asia slipped on Friday as a deteriorating global economic outlook
outweighed further signs of progress in trade talks between China and the
United States.
After inching higher in early trade, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific
shares outside Japan fell into the red as more markets opened across the
region, dipping 0.1 percent.
Chinese blue-chip shares were down 0.1 percent in late-morning trade
after briefly breaking into positive territory.
After surging on Monday on optimism over trade talks, China’s major
equity indexes have faltered on investor concerns over slowing domestic growth
and on indications that Chinese authorities will resort to a benchmark lending
rate cut only as a last resort to boost the economy.
Growth in China’s new home prices fell to a nine-month low in January as
broader economic weakness increasingly weighs on the property sector.
Seoul’s Kospi lost 0.3 percent. Shares in Taiwan were also 0.3 percent
lower.
Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.4 percent after data showed core consumer
inflation accelerated slightly in January but remained far from the central
bank’s 2 percent target, underscoring the fragility of the country’s economic
recovery.
Australian shares gained 0.4 percent.
A combination of trade talks and Federal Reserve caution over further
rate hikes has provided support to riskier assets, including equities, in
recent sessions, said Rob Carnell, chief economist and head of research,
Asia-Pacific at ING.
But with a more dovish Fed and some sort of trade deal already priced
in, further developments on trade “haven’t really been having anything like the
impact in markets that they would have done a week or a couple weeks or months
ago,” he said.
More
Next, did China just ban Australia’s coal in retaliation for
Australia banning Huawei’s 5G equipment? They wouldn’t do that would they? It’s
a funny old world in trade wars. Officially everything normal. “A Chinese
foreign ministry spokesman said on Thursday that customs were inspecting and
testing coal imports for safety and quality, and the move was “completely
normal”.
Australia seeks to calm investors over concerns at China coal ban
February 22, 2019
/ 2:51 AM
SYDNEY/BEIJING
(Reuters) - Australia’s prime minister sought to ease fears on Friday of a
further rift in ties to China following concerns of a ban on coal imports at
the northern port of Dalian, as coal stocks pared early losses and the local
dollar steadied.
The Australian currency dropped more than 1 percent to a 10-day low of
$0.7070 on Thursday after Reuters reported that customs at the Chinese port had
banned imports of Australia’s biggest export earner since the start of
February.
China is the largest buyer of Australian coal, taking 89 million tonnes
last year, worth A$15 billion ($10.7 billion), according to data from the
Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Dalian’s move came after major ports elsewhere in China prolonged
clearing times for Australian coal and stoked concerns that China is using
trade to punish Australia amid a recent souring of bilateral ties.
However, Morrison said on Friday there was nothing to suggest the move
was out of the ordinary.
The country has asked its ambassador to China to seek
urgent clarification.
----Tensions arose in 2017 when Canberra accused Beijing of meddling in
its domestic affairs, and the relationship suffered another setback last year
when Australia banned China’s Huawei from its 5G broadband network.
Australia’s Minister for Trade, Simon Birmingham, said delays to exports
of coal to China were caused by import quotas and not a blanket ban on
Australian coal.
---- This is not the first time China has restricted coal imports. The country has periodically imposed customs delays and quality controls on imports over the past several years, juggling efforts to curb smog, cut coal use, balance imports against domestic production and protect jobs.
Dalian would ban imports of all Australian coal indefinitely and limit
coal imports from all sources to 12 million tonnes in 2019, a port official
told Reuters on Thursday.
---- Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe told a parliamentary committee that coal restrictions may have been driven by concerns about the environment or the profitability of local industry.
“There are other markets in the world for Australia’s coking coal ... it
will find another market, perhaps at a lower price,” Lowe said in response to
questions.
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said on Thursday that customs were
inspecting and testing coal imports for safety and quality, and the move was
“completely normal”.
Finally, yet more red flags for the global economy. Is
the next global recession already underway?
Philly Fed manufacturing index slumps into negative territory in February for the first time in nearly three years
By Greg Robb
Published: Feb 21, 2019 10:02 a.m. ET
Index falls to negative 4.1, well below expectations of a 14 reading
The
numbers: The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in
February dropped sharply into negative territory. The index fell to a
seasonally adjusted reading of -4.1 from 17 in the prior month. This is the
first negative reading since May 2016.
What happened: Below the headline, the indexes for new orders and shipments dropped sharply into negative territory. The employment indicator remained positive. Firms were generally optimistic about the outlook for the next six months.
The big picture: The sharp drop fits with other manufacturing data suggesting the U.S. is now succumbing to the global industrial downturn. The Empire State index rebounded in February but remained close to a two-year low. The flash U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to the worst level in 17 months.
More
AP Moeller Maersk's profit falls sharply
By Dominic
Chopping Published: Feb 21,
2019 4:17 a.m. ET
A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S's (MAERSK-B.KO) net profit missed expectations
for the fourth quarter, dropping sharply as higher freight rates failed to
offset rising fuel costs.
The shipping company on Thursday posted fourth-quarter net profit of $59
million compared with $374 million in the same period last year, and
undershooting a $449 million average analysts' forecast from FactSet.
Revenue rose 21% to $10.18 billion, beating expectations for $9.89
billion.
Maersk, which moves about 18% of all containers worldwide and is
considered a barometer of global trade, said it expects 2019 earnings before
interest, tax, depreciation and amortization of around $5.0 billion.
The organic volume growth in its main ocean unit is expected to be in
line with the estimated average market guidance for 2019 growth of 1% to 3%.
If all else fails, immortality
can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, communist China. What value will any US v China trade deal really
have? Under President Trump, the USA abrogates international treaties at will,
China’s President Xi puts the communist Party above the rule of law. Huawei
anyone?
Now,
there are two different attitudes towards learning from others. One is the
dogmatic attitude of transplanting everything, whether or not it is suited to
our conditions. This is no good. The other attitude is to use our heads and
learn those things that suit our conditions, that is, to absorb whatever
experience is useful to us. That is the attitude we should adopt.
Mao Tse
Tung.
Xi: China Must Never Adopt Constitutionalism, Separation of Powers, or Judicial Independence
The Chinese president calls for strengthening the Communist Party’s leadership over law in China.
By Charlotte
Gao February 19, 2019
Before the article — titled “Strengthening the Party’s leadership over the overall rule of law” — was published, Chinese state news TV station CCTV and Chinese state news agency Xinhua had already promoted the piece, boasting about its significance.
In this 5,000-plus-word article, Xi repeatedly stresses the importance of the CCP’s leadership over China’s legal system and urged the Party to further strengthen its leadership.
“Why can China maintain long-term stability without chaos? The fundamental reason is that we always adhere to the leadership of the Communist Party,” Xi claimed. “We must further institutionalize and legalize the party’s leadership.”
Specifically, Xi complimented the latest amendments to the Chinese Constitution.
As The Diplomat reported last year, the CCP added one sentence — “The leadership of the Communist Party of China is the defining feature of socialism with Chinese characteristics” — into Chapter 1, Article 1 of the constitution and, most shockingly, removed the two-term limit for the presidency and the vice presidency. This constitutional amendment brought about an unprecedented wave of criticism worldwide, but Xi said in the article that “The constitutional amendment has received very good response in all aspects.”
Xi also vowed that China “must never copy the models or practices of other countries.”
“We must never follow the path of Western ‘constitutionalism,’ ‘separation of powers,’ or ‘judicial independence,’’’ Xi said.
Yet in terms of foreign affairs, Xi argued that China “should be apt at using law when participating in international affairs. ” He explained:
In the struggle against foreign powers, we must take up legal weapons, occupy the high point of the rule of law, and say no to the saboteurs and spoilers. The global governance system is in a critical period of adjustment and change. We must actively participate in the formulation of international rules and act as participant, promoter, and leader during the changing process of global governance.
On legal talent, Xi highlighted the importance of building a “socialist legal team” whose members are “loyal to the Party, to the state, to the people, and to the law. ”
It’s worth mentioning that the long article is an excerpt of a speech made by Xi on August 24, 2018. On that day, the CCP Central Committee formally set up the Commission for Law-based Governance and Xi himself was appointed as the head of this commission, according to Xinhua.
In fact, early in 2017, the CCP had already added “Party, government, military, civilian, and academic, east, west, south, north, and center, the party leads everything” — the phrase coined by Mao Zedong — into the CCP’s constitution. By doing so, the CCP has officially placed the Party above everything else on paper.
Xi’s recent emphasis on the CCP’s leadership over the legal system is only one aspect of the implementation of this specific sentence.
What’s interesting is actually the timing of this publication. Qiushi journal decided to publish Xi’s speech at the very moment when Beijing and Washington are close to making a deal on the trade dispute. It might be a warning message against those who are not satisfied with China’s concessions to the United States.
A
revolution is not a dinner party, or writing an essay, or painting a picture,
or doing embroidery; it cannot be so refined, so leisurely and gentle, so
temperate, kind, courteous, restrained and magnanimous. A revolution is an
insurrection, an act of violence by which one class overthrows another.
Mao Tse
Tung.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
New 29% efficient solar panel combines space-grade PV cells with concentrated glass cover
Swiss company Insolight has reached 29% efficiency for its unique solar panel, as verified by the Solar Energy Institute of the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (IES-UPM). Its patented optical system concentrates light onto an array of tiny space-grade multi-junction PV cells. Compared to traditional non-concentrated PV modules with efficiencies around 19%, Insolight’s pre-production module has been validated at 29% by IES-UPM, two years after the first lab prototype.
“For the rooftop market, the real challenge is not only to increase
efficiency but to do so in a way that combines cost-effectiveness, ease of
installation and durability,” said Laurent Coulot, CEO of Insolight.
The Insolight panel’s protective glass embeds a grid of lenses which
concentrate light by several hundred times. Under this optical layer, direct
sunlight is focused on high-performance space-grade solar cells. The unit also
follows the sun, by mechanically shifting cells horizontally by a few millimeters
each day to keep aligned with the glass lenses. The whole system is encased in
a frame, similar to standard solar panels, which keeps mechanical parts
protected.
Insolight’s product has the same form factor as standard panels and the
company said it can be mounted in industry-standard tilt angles on commercial
rooftops or the ground.
In addition to the 29% efficiency validation from IES-UPM, modules have
also been tested in real-life conditions for a whole year on a pilot
installation at the Swiss Institute of Technology in Lausanne (EPFL),
successfully enduring extreme heat, winter conditions and storms.
The Insolight concept was first tested on
a lab prototype by Fraunhofer ISE in 2016, setting a record for a rooftop
technology.
More
Another weekend and still
no trade deal. What could possibly go wrong next week?
"In
economics, hope and faith coexist with great scientific pretension."
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January
DJIA: 24,999 +76 Down. NASDAQ: 7,282 +124 Down.
SP500:
2,704 +71 Down.
Normally this
would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting
to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge
Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team,
probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on
most of the major indexes.
No comments:
Post a Comment