Thursday, 21 February 2019

It’s Close! It’s Close!! Really, It’s Close!!!


Baltic Dry Index. 622 -13    Brent Crude 67.15

Trump 25 percent tariffs 7 days away.  Brexit 37 days away.

Although more than 500 million maritime containers move around the world each year, accounting for 90 per cent of international trade, only 2 per cent are inspected. Strengthening customs and immigration systems is essential.

Ban Ki-moon

Another day, and still no trade deal, just more hype and spin. Trade team China seem determined to take Trump’s trade team hooligans down to the wire. The closer we get, the shriller the spin from trade team Trump.  After seven or so months of talks, both sides are now apparently talking memorandums of understandings. Underwhelming is British understatement.

But will the dozy European trade negotiators notice, for they are up next once Trump declares victory in the Pacific over China.

Below, what seems like a never ending story, and just possibly why trade team Trump seems so desperate for a stock market boosting deal. Buy the rumour, sell the fact? What message is the Baltic Dry Index sending?

Asia shares up on Fed outlook, Aussie dollar seesaws after jobs data

February 21, 2019 / 1:24 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares pulled ahead to fresh 4-1/2-month highs on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve affirmed it would be “patient” on further interest rate rises and as Sino-U.S. trade talks hinted of progress towards a deal in their tariff war.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.4 percent to peak last seen in early October.

Australian shares rose 0.8 percent while the Australian dollar seesawed in the wake of strong jobs data for January.

Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.1 percent by the midday break after closing at a two-month high on Wednesday.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained nearly 0.4 percent to hit a more than six-month high reached during the previous session.

Chinese shares were up 0.3 percent, near a more than half-year high.

Investors have been cheered over recent days by signs of progress in Sino-U.S. trade talks. The trade war between the economic giants have roiled financial markets over the past year.

The United States and China have started to outline commitments in principle on the stickiest issues in their trade dispute, marking the most significant progress yet toward ending a seven-month trade war, sources familiar with the negotiations told Reuters.

“We must be a little bit careful that if the trade negotiation would be ended with a temporary success, that could in turn mean the Fed might restart their monetary tightening,” said Yoshinori Shigemi, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Tokyo.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that trade negotiations were going well and suggested he was open to pushing off the deadline to complete negotiations, saying March 1 was not a “magical” date.
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Exclusive: U.S., China sketch outlines of deal to end trade war - sources

February 21, 2019 / 2:45 AM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States and China have started to outline commitments in principle on the stickiest issues in their trade dispute, marking the most significant progress yet towards ending a seven-month trade war, according to sources familiar with the negotiations.

The world’s two largest economies have slapped tit-for-tat tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of goods, slowing global economic growth, skewing supply chains and disrupting manufacturing.

As officials hold high level talks on Thursday and Friday in Washington, they remain far apart on demands made by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration for structural changes to China’s economy.

But the broad outline of what could make up a deal is beginning to emerge from the talks, the sources said, as the two sides push for an agreement by March 1. That marks the end of a 90-day truce that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to when they met in Argentina late last year.

Negotiators are drawing up six memorandums of understanding on structural issues: forced technology transfer and cyber theft, intellectual property rights, services, currency, agriculture and non-tariff barriers to trade, according to two sources familiar with the progress of the talks.

At meetings between U.S. and Chinese officials last week in Beijing the two sides traded texts and worked on outlining obligations on paper, according to one of the sources.

---- The sources requested anonymity to speak candidly about the talks.

The MOUs cover the most complex issues affecting the trading relationship between the two countries and are meant, from the U.S. perspective, to end the practices that led Trump to start levying duties on Chinese imports in the first place.

One source cautioned that the talks could still end in failure. But the work on the MOUs was a significant step in getting China to sign up both to broad principles and to specific commitments on key issues, he said.

The United States has accused Beijing of forcing U.S. companies doing business in China to share their technology with local partners and hand over intellectual property secrets. China denies it engages in such practices.
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A $3-trillion tsunami is about to flood the stock market, warns fund manager

By Shawn Langlois  Published: Feb 20, 2019 6:59 p.m. ET
Will Nasgovitz, who oversees about $1.3 billion in assets as the chief executive of Heartland Advisors, isn’t calling for a “full blown financial crisis,” but, with trillions in corporate debt coming due in the coming years, the industry veteran’s not exactly predicting smooth sailing in the stock market, either.

“With interest rates low, the economy strong, and relatively easy lending standards, the thinking went that borrowing to buyback shares or finance acquisitions was a low-risk strategy,” Nasgovitz explained in a recent post. “But the next five years could severely test that Pollyanna view.”

Read: Bernie Sanders takes shot at former Goldman Sachs boss Lloyd Blankfein over ‘making the very rich even richer’

Nasgovitz used this chart to illustrate his stance:

---- As you can see, about $3.3 trillion — or 48% of all current outstanding commercial debt — comes due by 2023. The timing could be problematic.

“The sheer volume would be challenging for the market to digest in the best of scenarios, let alone this late in an economic expansion,” Nasgovitz wrote. “Adding to our sense of caution are early signs that lending standards have begun to tighten for commercial and industrial borrowers.”

He says that, as banks become more stringent, borrowers could end up paying higher rates just to secure funds to retire outstanding obligations.

“While we don’t currently see signs of a full-blown financial crisis on the horizon,” he concluded, “we do believe that excessive debt adds unnecessary challenges to companies in general and will likely be a headwind for heavy borrowers in the intermediate term going forward.”
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In other news, are America and China cutting a coal deal? Is America’s win, Australia’s loss? It’s a funny old distorted world in  a trade war.

Exclusive: China's Dalian port bans Australian coal imports, sets 2019 quota - source

February 21, 2019 / 5:31 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - Customs at China’s northern Dalian port has banned imports of Australian coal and will cap overall coal imports for 2019 through its harbours at 12 million tonnes, an official at Dalian Port Group told Reuters on Thursday.

The indefinite ban on imports from top supplier Australia, effective since the start of February, comes as major ports elsewhere in China prolong clearing times for Australian coal to at least 40 days.

Five harbours overseen by Dalian customs - Dalian, Bayuquan, Panjin, Dandong and Beiliang - will not allow Australian coal to clear through customs, said the official. Coal imports from Russia and Indonesia will not be affected.

The ports handled about 14 million tonnes of coal last year, half of which was from Australia, said Gu Meng, analyst at Orient Futures.

The Dalian official declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. Dalian customs did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Finally, the ever growing mystery of the mercenaries arrested in falling apart Haiti. Was the deep state attempting a coup or to prop up the current unpopular, but US supported regime? Shame they don’t have any oil, or they might have got more than a pennyweight mercenary army.

Heavily armed foreigners arrested in Haiti sent to United States, officials say

February 21, 2019 / 5:39 AM
PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) - A heavily armed group of foreign nationals, who were arrested in Haiti on Sunday after days of massive anti-government protests, were handed over to U.S. authorities on Wednesday, Haitian and U.S. authorities said.

It was unclear if all the members of the group, which reportedly included five Americans, a Serb and a Russian, were flown to the United States. 

“The return of the individuals to the U.S. was coordinated with the Haitian authorities,” a State Department representative for Western Hemisphere Affairs said in an emailed statement, without providing further details.

A spokesman for Haiti’s Justice Ministry also confirmed that the individuals were “were handed over to U.S. authorities this Wednesday.”

Media reports said that, at the time of their arrest, the men were armed with semi-automatic weapons, rifles, pistols, drones and satellite phones in their two vehicles.

Videos circulating on social media alleged to show at least six men being escorted through the airport in Port-au-Prince towards a plane bound for the United States.

Since the arrests, Haitian newspapers have printed names that corresponded to social media profiles of U.S. citizens claiming military backgrounds. However, Reuters could not independently confirm the identities of the arrested men.

Thousands of demonstrators called for President Jovenel Moise to resign and for an independent probe into the whereabouts of funds from the PetroCaribe agreement, an alliance between Caribbean countries and OPEC member Venezuela.

Protests that began on Feb. 7 died down after about a week-and-a-half but opposition leaders have called for Haitians to take to the streets again on Friday.

The State Department last week ordered all non-emergency U.S. personnel and their families to leave Haiti and advised U.S. citizens not to travel there.

As we learned after President Herbert Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley tariff at the outset of the Great Depression, vibrant international trade is a key component to economic recovery; hindering trade is a recipe for disaster.

Asa Hutchinson

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
 
Yes it’s those unicorn dealers again. More on the folly of giving other people control of your hard earned cash, if cryptocurrency can really be called cash. Venezuela, and reportedly even Australia, can’t even get back their gold from alleged storage at the supposedly honest Bank of England even by using lawyers. What chance of getting blood out of a stone called quadriga?

Quadriga dead or alive? Law firms jockey to represent cryptocurrency clients short millions

'Business is currently suspended and may never resume, although that remains to be determined,’ says judge

Yvette Brend · CBC News · Posted: Feb 19, 2019 1:22 PM PT | Last Updated: February 19

Top Canadian law firms are jockeying for position to represent people who have money tied up in a cryptocurrency exchange that became frozen after the mysterious death of its founder in India.
Gerald Cotten, possibly holding the only keys to money tied up in his virtual currency exchange, died in December.

His sudden death set off a wave of outrage as clients tried to retrieve their funds — only to face a frozen website and a lack of information.

On Tuesday, Nova Scotia Supreme Court Justice Michael Wood released a decision after accepting applications from at least four named law firms that each represent the interests of more than 100 of the 115,000 clients of Quadriga Coin Exchange or Quadriga CX which is operated by Quadriga Fintech Solutions Corp.

In total, clients are owed approximately $250-million, according to Wood's decision filed Feb. 19.
Since the initial creditor protection hearing on Feb. 5, the court had received competing motions on behalf of Quadriga clients who are owed a few hundred to several million dollars, according to the court decision.

All parties seek to have a committee of creditors and legal counsel appointed to represent their varied interests — with a reasonable cap and control on the fees that can be charged.

The challenge, according to the judge, is the varied interests of the vastly different creditors all looking to recover their cash.

This amid fears some of the money has already vanished.

A week ago, the court-appointed monitor overseeing the search for millions lost by the Canadian cryptocurrency exchange, reported that an additional half-million dollars worth of bitcoin had disappeared.

Ernst and Young reported that Quadriga "inadvertently" transferred bitcoins to cold digital storage wallets that were inaccessible, making clients short funds even more nervous.

"The business is currently suspended and may never resume, although that remains to be determined," Wood wrote.

He said there's been "a great deal of discussion" online about Quadriga — and where the cash has gone, noting the vast array of blockchain detectives all vying to prove exactly what has happened to the missing cash.

Lawyers for both a monitor appointed by the court — and the applicants — urged the court to make a decision as fast as possible before the next hearing scheduled for March. 5, in order to enable a suggested $100,000 cap on legal expenses.

For people short investments, the legal process seems slow, and many say they are frustrated.

A few dozen moved to start a class-action — only to have their retainers returned by the organizer, after the court gave Quadriga 30 days of protection against any legal action.
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Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Breakthrough in the search for graphene-based electronics

Date: February 19, 2019

Source: Technical University of Denmark

Summary: A team of researchers from Denmark has solved one of the biggest challenges in making effective nanoelectronics based on graphene. 

For 15 years, scientists have tried to exploit the "miracle material" graphene to produce nanoscale electronics. On paper, graphene should be great for just that: it is ultra-thin -- only one atom thick in fact and therefore two-dimensional, it is excellent for conducting electrical current and should be ideal for future forms of electronics that are faster and more energy efficient. In addition, graphene consists of carbon atoms -- of which we have an unlimited supply.

In theory, graphene can be altered to perform many different tasks within e.g. electronics, photonics or sensors simply by drawing tiny patterns in it, as this fundamentally alters its quantum properties. One "simple" task, which has turned out to be surprisingly difficult, is to induce a bandgap -- which is crucial for making transistors and optoelectronic devices. However, since graphene is only an atom thick all of the atoms are important and even tiny irregularities in the pattern can destroy its properties.

"Graphene is a fantastic material, which I think will play a crucial role in making new nanoscale electronics. The problem is that it is extremely difficult to engineer the electrical properties," says Peter Bøggild, a professor at DTU Physics.

The Center for Nanostructured Graphene at DTU and Aalborg University was established in 2012 specifically to study how the properties of graphene can be engineered, for instance by making a very fine pattern of holes. This should subtly change the quantum nature of the electrons in the material, and allow the properties of graphene to be tailored. However, the team of researchers from DTU and Aalborg experienced the same as many other researchers worldwide: it didn't work.

"When you make patterns in a material like graphene, you do so in order to change its properties in a controlled way -- to match your design. However, what we have seen throughout the years is that we can make the holes, but not without introducing so much disorder and contamination that it no longer behaves like graphene. It is a bit similar to making a water pipe, with a poor flow rate because of coarse manufacturing. On the outside, it might look fine. For electronics, that is obviously disastrous," says Peter Bøggild.

Now, the team of scientists have solved the problem. Two postdocs from DTU Physics, Bjarke Jessen and Lene Gammelgaard, first encapsulated graphene inside another two-dimensional material -- hexagonal boron nitride, a non-conductive material that is often used for protecting graphene's properties.

Next, they used a technique called electron beam lithography to carefully pattern the protective layer of boron nitride and graphene below with a dense array of ultra small holes. The holes have a diameter of approx. 20 nanometers, with just 12 nanometers between them -- however, the roughness at the edge of the holes is less than 1 nanometer or a billionth of a meter. This allows 1000 times more electrical current to flow than had been reported in such small graphene structures.

"We have shown that we can control graphene's band structure and design how it should behave.
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Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs, will be made to benefit American workers and American families. We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies, and destroying our jobs. Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength.

Donald Trump


The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January

DJIA: 24,999 +76 Down. NASDAQ: 7,282 +124 Down. SP500: 2,704 +71 Down. 
Normally this would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team, probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the major indexes.

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