Baltic Dry Index. 2295 -36 Brent Crude 116.72
Spot Gold 1827 US 2 Year Yield 3.08 +0.04
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 28/06/22 World 549,824,033
Deaths 6,352,196
When I was young I thought that money was the most important thing in life; now that I am old I know that it is.
Oscar Wilde.
In the stock casinos, a bear market winter looms this summer.
In the crypto Ponzi schemes, a summer Ice Age is already underway.
But none of this matters if Russia cuts off gas supplies to the EU, which seems all too likely in the west’s proxy war against Russia.
The big question this summer, can NATO avoid a real war with Russia in 2022 and if it can’t, how long before it goes nuclear?
No one anywhere is talking about peace, just more and more escalation that will at some point trigger real war.
Asia-Pacific stocks mixed as investors weigh economic concerns
SINGAPORE — Shares in the Asia-Pacific region were mixed on Tuesday as investors weigh economic concerns.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.86%, while the Hang Seng Tech index slipped 1.67%.
Technology investor Prosus NV will sell some of its stake in Tencent to fund a stock buyback of itself and parent Naspers, the Dutch firm said on Monday. Hang Seng heavyweight Tencent fell 4.81%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.26%, while the Topix gained 0.58%.
In South Korea, the Kospi was up 0.15%, while the Kosdaq declined 0.62%.
Mainland Chinese markets were little changed. The Shanghai Composite was just below the flatline and the Shenzhen Component inched up fractionally.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares was down 0.52%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 0.62% higher.
In corporate news, Trip.com reported a net loss of 989 million Chinese yuan ($147.79 million) for the first quarter of 2022 after the U.S. market close.
The company said in a press release that its results were materially and adversely affected by Covid-19 disruptions in China. Trip.com’s U.S.-listed shares fell 1.51% in after hours trade.
Weilong Delicious, a Chinese snack company, has reportedly revived its initial public offering in Hong Kong and could be listed in the second half of the year. Bloomberg reported that the company refiled a preliminary prospectus on Monday and that the company could raise $500 million.
Overnight in the U.S., the major indexes fell following a major rebound on Friday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 62.42 points, or 0.2%, to 31,438.26. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 3,900.11, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.7%, falling to 11,524.55.
“There is a clear lack of conviction by investors with light trading volumes favoring the notion of an exhausted market, with big declines set to be recorded this quarter, notwithstanding the outsized gains logged last week,” Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank, wrote in a note Tuesday.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/asia-markets-stocks-earnings-currencies-oil.html
Stock index futures slip following a losing day Monday
Stock futures were little changed early on Tuesday following a losing day as investors prepare to rebalance their portfolios with the end of the quarter fast approaching.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 7 points or 0.02%. S&P 500 futures edged down 0.09% and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.14%.
The overnight action followed modest losses on Wall Street as a comeback rally stalled. The blue-chip Dow fell about 60 points, while the broader benchmark, the S&P 500, dipped 0.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 0.7%. The major averages rallied last week, posting their first positive week since May.
“Market bulls who have had the rug repeatedly pulled out from under them this year may understandably be suspect of the rally, since many of 2022′s upswings have quickly given way to fresh lows and this time may be no different,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading at E-Trade.
Investors will monitor more data on Tuesday including June consumer confidence and April home prices to gauge the health of the economy. Fears of a recession have increased lately as the Federal Reserve tries to combat surging inflation with aggressive rate hikes.
----Despite last week’s bounce, the S&P 500 is down nearly 14% in the second quarter, on track to post its worst quarter since the first quarter of 2020, at the depth of the pandemic.
“The bounce from the bear market lows is a welcome change, though slowing economic growth and lack of capitulation among investors has many skeptical of the durability of the recovery,” said Mark Hackett, Nationwide’s chief of investment research.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
In other news, is it all over in the tulip market?
One of the most prominent crypto hedge funds just defaulted on a $670 million loan
Prominent crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670 million. Digital asset brokerage Voyager Digital issued a notice on Monday morning, stating that the fund failed to repay a loan of $350 million in the U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDC, and 15,250 bitcoin, worth about $323 million at today’s prices.
3AC’s solvency crunch comes after weeks of turmoil in the crypto market, which has erased hundreds of billions of dollars in value. Bitcoin and ether are both trading slightly lower in the last 24 hours, though well off their all-time highs. Meanwhile, the overall crypto market cap sits at about $950 billion, down from around $3 trillion at its peak in Nov. 2021.
Voyager said it intends to pursue recovery from 3AC (Three Arrows Capital). In the interim, the broker emphasized that the platform continues to operate and fulfill customer orders and withdrawals. That assurance is likely an attempt to contain fear of contagion through the wider crypto ecosystem.
----As of Friday, Voyager said it had approximately $137 million in U.S. dollars and owned crypto assets. The company also noted that it has access to a $200 million cash and USDC revolver, as well as a 15,000 bitcoin ($318 million) revolver from Alameda Ventures.
Last week, Alameda (FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s quantitative trading firm) committed $500 million in financing to Voyager Digital, a crypto brokerage. Voyager has already pulled $75 million from that line of credit.
“The default of 3AC does not cause a default in the agreement with Alameda,” the statement said.
CNBC did not immediately receive a comment from 3AC.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/three-arrows-capital-crypto-hedge-fund-defaults-on-voyager-loan.html
Finally, does the USA, the EU and GB have a secret suicide wish?
June 24, 2022
Sanctions have backfired on those described by Vladimir Putin as the unfriendly nations. It is setting in train a series of events likely to undermine the whole Western financial system, as prices rise driving interest rates higher, and economic activity shrinks. These developments alone are leading to contracting bank credit, crashing stock markets, and sharply higher bond yields.
Last week, I wrote about the impact on the banking system and the likely consequences. Russia, China, and associated nations who depend upon them for trade and economic development are now moving to protect themselves from what is emerging as a full scale systemic and fiat currency crisis for the dollar and the entire Western financial system.
These developments are hastening the end of the petrodollar era and the dollar’s role as a reserve currency. A central Asian replacement is planned to be a new super-currency used for cross-border payments, based on an index of a basket of commodities and currencies of the participating nations. Including currencies is a mistake, but otherwise the proposition has merit.
This article explains why and how a properly constructed scheme would work. I demonstrate why it could act as a de facto gold standard.
More
Russia Is Winning the Financial War - LewRockwell LewRockwell.com
Total shutdown of Russian gas pipelines to Europe ‘is not inconceivable’
The Group of 7 nations need to brace for a complete shutdown of Russian gas pipelines in the near term, and it could have severe consequences for Europe’s economy, one analyst warned.
“The G-7 have to prepare for a shutdown of gas. The G-7 can deal with a cutback on oil. There are other supplies that could be gotten around the world, but the gas could be shut off and that would have consequences,” said Jeffrey Schott, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told CNBC on Monday.
“Russia already has cut back substantially on gas flowing to Germany and through Ukraine, so shutting down the pipelines is not inconceivable. Russia also sells some LNG to Europe but not that much,” he said in an email after the interview.
“The total cut-off of Russian supplies would prompt gas rationing at least for the short term,” he said. “Russian supplies would be partially offset by increased LNG imports, increased supplies from Norway and Algeria, fuel-switching to coal, and conservation measures,” Schott added.
Gazprom, Russia’s state-backed energy supplier, has reduced its gas flows to Europe by about 60% over the past few weeks. The move prompted Germany, Italy, Austria and the Netherlands to all indicate they could turn back to coal once again.
His comments came as the leaders of the G-7 wealthiest nations met in Munich, Germany, for their latest summit.
As global pressure continues to pile on Russia over its assault on Ukraine, Europe is facing “a very tight situation,” Schott told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Monday.
“They’re playing for time. The more there is a hostility against Russia, the more Putin threatens and perhaps acts to cut off more gas to Europe. I see that coming sooner rather than later,” he added.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/g-7-nations-face-threat-of-russia-shutting-down-more-gas-.html
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
It is better to have a permanent income than to be fascinating.
Oscar Wilde.
Metals Haven’t Crashed This Hard Since the Great Recession
Sun, June 26, 2022 at 8:48 AM
(Bloomberg) -- Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
It’s a dramatic reversal from the past two years, when metals surged on a wave of post-lockdown optimism, inflationary predictions and supply snarls. Now, inflation is here and supplies are still tight. But prices are plummeting as worries about a slowdown in industrial activity across major economies dovetail with slumping demand in China.
For a metal like copper, its uses in everything from heavy industrial machinery to advanced electronics mean the market is tightly linked to economic shifts, and the retreat marks a signal from commodity markets that efforts to get prices back under control are having some early successes. The mood in metals has soured even as Chinese Covid-19 lockdowns start to ease, and there are signs that traders there are betting copper prices will fall further.
“Even if China recovers in the second half, it won’t be able to single-handedly boost prices back to new highs — that age has gone,” Amelia Xiao Fu, head of commodities strategy at BOCI Global Commodities, said by phone from London. “If other major economies are heading towards a recession, China won’t be growing at exceptional rates either.”
Chinese manufacturing activity is already shrinking, and S&P Global gauges on Thursday showed European manufacturing output contracting for the first time in two years, while US output hit a 23-month low. Even so, the magnitude of the accelerating selloff in copper and other industrial metals suggests that investors are betting on much steeper declines in demand in the coming weeks.
More
Metals Haven’t Crashed This Hard Since the Great Recession (yahoo.com)
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.
COVID-19 increases risk of Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s & stroke, study finds
Rich Haridy June 26, 2022
New research presented recently at the European Academy of Neurology Congress in Vienna has found an increased risk of several neurological disorders in patients following a bout of COVID-19. The study found the risk of Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s and stroke all increased in COVID-positive subjects compared to those uninfected.
“More than two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the precise nature and evolution of the effects of COVID-19 on neurological disorders remained uncharacterized,” said lead author on the new study, Pardis Zarifkar, from the Copenhagen University Hospital. “Previous studies have established an association with neurological syndromes, but until now it is unknown whether COVID-19 also influences the incidence of specific neurological diseases and whether it differs from other respiratory infections.”
The researchers analyzed electronic health records from almost half of Denmark’s total population, spanning 2020 and 2021. Across the study period those who tested positive for COVID-19 were found to be 3.5 times more likely to be diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease; 2.6 times more likely to be diagnosed with Parkinson’s; 4.8 times more likely to experience bleeding in the brain; and 2.7 times more likely to develop ischemic stroke.
Zarifkar does note the increased risk of these neurological conditions following COVID-19 does mirror what has previously been reported following cases of influenza or bacterial pneumonia. However, due to the sheer prevalence of COVID-19 infections, it is likely baseline rates of these neurodegenerative diseases will rise around the world over the coming years.
“We found support for an increased risk of being diagnosed with neurodegenerative and cerebrovascular disorders in COVID-19 positive compared to COVID-negative patients, which must be confirmed or refuted by large registry studies in the near future,” added Zarifkar. “Reassuringly, apart for ischemic stroke, most neurological disorders do not appear to be more frequent after COVID-19 than after influenza or community-acquired bacterial pneumonia.”
For decades researchers have seen a correlation between certain viral infections and neurodegenerative disease. Perhaps most well-known was the increase in rates of Parkinson’s disease following the Spanish Flu pandemic in the early 20th century.
More
COVID-19 increases risk of Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s & stroke, study finds (newatlas.com)
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
No news today. Normal service back tomorrow.
The old believe everything, the middle-aged suspect everything, the young know everything.
Oscar Wilde.
