Baltic Dry Index. 3944 -57 Brent Crude 72.61
Spot Gold 1828
Jobs report disappoints — only 235,000 positions added vs. expectations of 720,000
Inflation could be repeating the trajectory of the late 1960s, which laid the foundation for sustained high prices the following decade, according to economic historian Niall Ferguson.
Ferguson told CNBC on Friday that policymakers are facing a new challenge in the form of rising inflation as a result of responding to the Covid-19 pandemic in a fashion similar to their response to the Great Recession of 2008.
“What is interesting about disasters is that one can lead to another. You can go from a public health disaster to a fiscal, monetary and potentially inflationary disaster,” Ferguson said at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy.
“It is not such a big disaster, it doesn’t kill people, but an inflation liftoff would be a problem.”
U.S. consumer prices rose 5.4% in July from a year earlier, marching the largest jump since August 2008.
The Federal Reserve and many economists maintain that the recent spike in inflation will be “transitory,” but Ferguson called this into question.
“How long is transitory? At what point do expectations fundamentally shift, especially if the Federal Reserve is telling people, ‘We have changed our inflation targeting regime and we don’t mind if inflation goes above target for a while’”? said Ferguson, the Milbank family senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
“My sense is that we are not heading for the 1970s but we could be rerunning the late 1960s, when famously the Fed chair then, McChesney Martin, lost control of inflation expectations.”
His comments come after former IMF chief economist and Harvard professor of public policy Kenneth Rogoff suggested in an article this week that the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan had added to the list of “unsettling” parallels between the 2020s and the “perfect storm” of factors that led to very high inflation in the 1970s.
Ferguson suggested that the high inflation of the ’70s had its origins in the late ’60s, adding that it was too early to conclude with confidence that the current rise is transitory.
Data released Tuesday on U.S. home prices and consumer inflation expectations may have added to the Fed’s concerns. The S&P/Case-Shiller index, which measures home prices across 20 major U.S. cities, rose 19.1% year on year in June, the largest jump in the series’ history going back to 1987. A survey from The Conference Board showed U.S. consumers now see inflation running at 6.8% 12 months from now. That’s up a full percentage point from a year ago, or 17.2% on a relative basis.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers tweeted: “Every time you hear that inflation is transitory remember that double house price inflation hasn’t yet shown up in the indexes. Housing represents 40 percent of the core CPI [consumer price index].”
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'Stagflation' trades boom as investors flee U.S. debt
September 3, 20212:30 PM BST
LONDON, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Investors have swept into assets perceived to perform on slowing growth and rising inflation, a weekly round-up by BofA showed on Friday, with tech stocks seeing their biggest inflows in six months and large outflows from U.S. government debt.
More
https://www.reuters.com/business/stagflation-trades-boom-investors-flee-us-debt-2021-09-03/
Simply the best: Oxford named best-performing university in the world
Friday 3 September 2021 8:41 am
The University of Oxford has been named the best-performing university globally, ahead of California Institute of Technology and Harvard University in the United States, which both took second place.
Oxford has become the first institution to retain top place in an international league table for the sixth year in a row.
A number of UK universities have climbed the Times Higher Education world rankings, with Cambridge rising from sixth to fifth place and the University of Manchester moving into the top 50.
Overall, the UK has 28 universities in the top 200, down from 29 last year.
Of these, more than half (15 institutions) have improved their ranking, four universities have stayed the same, and nine institutions have dropped by at least one place in the past 12 months.
---- US universities dominated the top 10 in the rankings, claiming eight places for the second year in a row.
Stanford University in the US came fourth, while the University of Cambridge and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) both took fifth place.
Imperial College London took 12th place compared to 11th last year, while University College London (UCL) fell from 16th place to joint 18th place.
More
Welcome to Oxford City
You’ve found the essential Oxford City guide with information on where to stay in Oxford, what to see if you’re visiting or living in Oxford, ideas for the best places to eat and drink, great shopping trips, local weather and details of Oxford’s thriving businesses and community essentials.
Inflation is not all bad. After all, it has allowed every American to live in a more expensive neighborhood without moving.
Alan Cranston.
Global Inflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Bridgestone to raise tire prices for fourth time in 2021
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Bridgestone Americas Inc.plans to increase prices for consumer and commercial tires sold in the U.S. and Canada in October and raised prices on Bandag-retread products on Sept. 1.
Bridgestone will increase prices across its portfolio of consumer and commercial tires sold in the U.S and Canada on Oct. 1, including increases of up to 8% on Bridgestone-, Firestone- and Fuzion-brand passenger and light truck tires; Bridgestone- and Firestone-brand truck and bus tires; Bridgestone- and Firestone-brand off-the-road (OTR) tires; and Firestone agricultural tires and tubes.
"Price adjustments will be made at the pattern and article levels and may vary based on channel," the company said.
Bridgestone called the increases "necessary" as the company navigates "current market dynamics." Members of Bridgestone's sales team are contacting customers directly to provide more detailed information about the changes, the company added.
----On Sept. 1, Bridgestone raised prices by up to 10% for Bandag products including treads, cushion and ancillary items sold in the U.S. and Canada. The new pricing affects all orders, regardless of backorder status, the company said.
This will be the fourth time Bridgestone has raised prices on passenger/light truck tires this year. Most recently it raised prices by up to 8% on select Bridgestone, Firestone and Fuzion passenger and light truck tires July 1.
More
https://www.tirebusiness.com/news/bridgestone-raise-tire-prices-fourth-time-2021
Drought squeezes Brazil's electricity supply
Issued on: 03/09/2021 - 03:44
Brazil's worst drought in almost a century is threatening electricity supply and critical crops, pushing up energy and food prices at a time the country was hoping to start recovering from the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic.
The country of 213 million people relies on hydropower for two-thirds of its electricity, but crucial dams are at near-record lows of less than a quarter full.
Last week, President Jair Bolsonaro urged Brazilians to "turn off a light at home" to conserve power, and on Tuesday the government hiked electricity prices by an average of seven percent, partly to cover new power plants and energy imports.
"We are the limit of the limit," said Bolsonaro, who is gearing up to seek reelection in 2022 amid record low popularity ratings, widespread disapproval of his handling of the Covid-19 crisis, and now also confronting extreme climate conditions that show little sign of abating.
Brazil's water levels will likely continue to deteriorate in September, according to electric grid operator ONS.
And the National Water and Sanitation Agency (ANA) has declared a "critical shortage of water resources," effective until November, for the Parana river basin at the heart of Brazil's hydroelectric capacity.
In a bid to stay ahead of demand and avoid outages, Brazil this week added one new biomass power station, three photovoltaic generators, and four wind farms to its power grid.
But much of the cost has fallen on consumers already contending with high unemployment and surging inflation in the country with the world's second-highest pandemic death toll.
- Eating less -
"I was forced to cut down a lot of things at home, some types of food. I cut down on the times my children could use the phone, to save money," consumer Marisa das Dores told AFP at her home in Mateus Leme, in eastern Brazil.
And price hikes are further fueling inflation, which reached 8.99 percent year-on-year in July -- almost three times the limit targeted by the central bank for 2021.
---- The drought is also threatening Brazil's critical agriculture sector.
Coffee production is projected to drop 25 percent this season, with staples such as maize, sugarcane, oranges and black beans also at risk.
- 'Urgent effort' -
But de Castro said that unless the rainfall pattern changes, dam levels will not be restored any time soon.
And "if the rains remain below average... there will be a mismatch between electricity supply and demand during peak hours in October," he added.
Brazil's Energy Minister Bento Albuquerque has appealed for an "urgent effort" by all to reduce electricity use, saying the drought had cost hydroelectric generation capacity the equivalent of five months' worth of consumption by a large city such as Rio de Janeiro.
More
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210903-drought-squeezes-brazil-s-electricity-supply
Vintners despair after French wildfire ravaged grapevines
LE CANNET-DES-MAURES, France (AP) — After a wildfire blazed through a once-picturesque nature reserve near the French Riviera, winemakers who grow the region’s celebrated crop are taking stock of the damage.
Rows of charred grapevines stand next to a vast expanse of steaming black vegetation devastated by the fire, which raged for a week in late August. The blaze left two people dead, injured 27 and forced some 10,000 people to evacuate around the Var region, not far from the famed coastal resort of Saint-Tropez. The region is well-known for its Cotes de Provence wines.
At least one small wine estate saw its vines completely destroyed. And the grapes that survived may be too smoke-damaged to produce a sellable wine.
Pierre Audemard of the Domaine de la Giscle vineyard lost his cellar full of stock and his equipment in the fire. “We’re receiving hundreds of messages from people who want to buy our wine, but we have nothing left,” he told local broadcaster France-Bleu.
The MDCV wine group, which owns several vineyards in the region affected, considers itself relatively lucky, but is still facing losses.
---- Others were not so fortunate. A smaller wine estate across the road, nestled in a dense section of trees and vegetation, was completely consumed by the fast-moving fire.
---- For the winemakers lucky enough not to have lost their crops, their attention now shifts to the lingering effects that could threaten their wine production during the upcoming harvest.
“Even if a vineyard has not been directly touched by the fire, the smoky winds can actually affect the taste of the wine,” said Mathon.
Winemakers will only know if they have a sellable product during the vinification process, where they ferment the grape juice, turning it into wine.
---- It’s been a particularly difficult year for French wine, after a surprise April frost killed off vines and caused 2 billion euros in industry losses. A study later by World Weather Attribution said the frost was made more likely by climate change.
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‘Property market on steroids’: Asia-Pacific’s real estate boom sees buyers bidding up prices
Published Thu, Sep 2 2021 9:06 PM EDT
SINGAPORE — Housing prices have shot up across cities in Asia-Pacific this year, fueled by record low interest rates amid the pandemic.
Optimism has also gained steam as vaccination rates gain pace, and some countries move toward a post-Covid recovery.
As companies move to a hybrid work model — a mix of working from home sometimes, and in the office at other times — demand for larger homes has also picked up, analysts say.
The overheating in property markets across some Asian cities has led to wide expectations that governments will intervene through housing curbs or other measures such as fiscal or monetary policy.
South Korea, for instance, hiked interest rates for the first time in three years in August – analysts attributed the move to rising home prices and increasing debt.
Here are the cities with the highest year-on-year price increases as of end June, according to data from real estate consultancy Knight Frank.
---- On average, the annual growth across Asia-Pacific was at 6.4% year-on-year — the highest increase in four years, according to Victoria Garrett, head of residential Asia-Pacific at Knight Frank.
Analysts and real estate agents say there’s been intense competition among home buyers, leading to bidding wars and sky-high cash offers way beyond market valuations.
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Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible anyway, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Study: Moderna COVID-19 vaccine produces more antibodies than Pfizer-BioNTech shot
Sept. 2, 2021 / 11:00 AM
Sept. 2 (UPI) -- The Moderna COVID-19 vaccine appears to generate a stronger immune response than the Pfizer-BioNTech shot, which has a similar formulation, a study published Thursday by JAMA Network Open found.
This is particularly true in adults age 50 and older, based on levels of antibodies, or immune cells that fight off viruses, the data showed.
However, older adults produce fewer antibodies following vaccination with either shot than those ages 32 to 49.
Whether this immune response translates into increased protection against infection and severe disease from COVID-19 "remains to be seen," the researchers said.
"Our study suggests that the Moderna vaccine elicits higher levels of binding antibodies than the vaccine from Pfizer-BioNTech," study co-author Dr. Jeffrey Wilson told UPI in an email.
"In our study, the difference in antibody levels between the two vaccines was most pronounced in relatively older subjects," said Wilson, an assistant professor of allergy and immunology at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville.
A study published Monday by JAMA found that the Moderna vaccine prompts the immune system to produce twice as many antibodies as the Pfizer-BioNTech shot.
But both vaccines were more than 90% effective against early strains of the coronavirus, and may offer up to 70% protection against the Delta variant, which is the predominant one in circulation across the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
For this study, Wilson and his colleagues compared antibody levels in 167 adults ages 32 to 57 who received either Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines and were fully vaccinated, meaning they had received both doses of the two-shot products.
Sixty-three of the study participants were age 50 or older and 120 of them were women.
Among study participants, six had been infected with COVID-19 before vaccination, according to the researchers.
Before receiving the second dose, participants vaccinated with the Moderna shot had three times as many antibodies against the coronavirus as those given the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.
After the second dose, antibody levels were about 50% higher in those given the Moderna vaccine compared with those who received Pfizer-BioNTech.
In those older than age 50, antibody levels were nearly seven times higher following the first dose of the Moderna vaccine compared with the Pfizer-BioNTech shots.
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COVID-19 linked to increasing rates of other hospital-borne infections
Sept. 3, 2021 / 1:05 AM
The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred a resurgence in other infections that strike hospitalized patients, a U.S. government study finds.
The study, by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, highlights the broad toll the pandemic has taken. It found that rates of several types of hospital-acquired infections rose after the pandemic reached U.S. shores in 2020.
More hospital patients suffered potentially deadly infections related to medical devices, including ventilators and tubes placed in blood vessels compared to the same period in 2019.
There was a similar rise in antibiotic-resistant staph infections, which can infiltrate the bloodstream and lungs.
The trend is disconcerting, in part, because U.S. hospitals had been making steady progress in preventing those infections before the pandemic.
"What we've learned during this pandemic is that the impact of COVID-19 is far-reaching," said Dr. Arjun Srinivasan, associate director of the CDC's health care-associated infection prevention programs.
The unfortunate fact, he said, is that COVID-19 created a "perfect storm" of circumstances that fed the increase in hospital-acquired infections.
There was the sheer number of patients flooding many hospitals -- people who were very ill and often required intensive care. Plus, Srinivasan said, those patients commonly had preexisting medical conditions and often needed to stay on ventilators and other medical devices for prolonged periods -- all of which raise the risk of infections.
---- The findings -- published Thursday in the journal Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology -- are based on data from a national surveillance system that tracks health care-linked infections. CDC epidemiologist Lindsey Weiner-Lastinger led the study.
Researchers found that in the early part of 2020, those infections were generally declining compared to the same period in 2019. That changed with the pandemic.
More
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2021/09/03/covid19-hospital-infection-resurgence/2561630619876/
Next, some very useful vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
FDA information. https://www.fda.gov/media/139638/download
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Experimental chlorine battery holds 6 times more charge than lithium-ion
Nick Lavars August 29, 2021
Stanford University scientists experimenting with a decades-old, single-use battery architecture have developed of a new version that is not only rechargeable, but offers around six times the capacity of today's lithium-ion solutions. The breakthrough hinges on the stabilization of volatile chlorine reactions within the device, and could one day provide the basis for high-performance batteries that power smartphones for a week at a time.
The new battery is described as an alkali metal-chlorine battery, and is based on chemistry that first emerged in the 1970s called lithium-thionyl chloride. These batteries are highly regarded for their high energy density, but rely on highly reactive chlorine that makes them unsuitable for anything other than a single use.
In a regular rechargeable battery, the electrons travel from one side to the other during discharging and then are reverted back to their original form as the battery is recharged. In this case, however, the sodium chloride or lithium chloride is converted to chlorine, which is too reactive to be converted back to chloride with any great efficiency.
The authors of this new study may well have come up with a solution to this problem. The team was experimenting with sodium chloride and chlorine to try and improve this battery's performance, but found that the chemical had actually stabilized, which enabled the battery some degree of rechargeability. Subsequent investigations led the team to develop a new electrode material made of porous carbon that acts like a sponge, soaking up the erratic chlorine molecules and safely storing them to be converted back into sodium chloride.
“The chlorine molecule is being trapped and protected in the tiny pores of the carbon nanospheres when the battery is charged,” says Guanzhou Zhu. “Then, when the battery needs to be drained or discharged, we can discharge the battery and convert chlorine to make NaCl – table salt – and repeat this process over many cycles. We can cycle up to 200 times currently and there’s still room for improvement.”
A well maintained lithium-ion battery, for context, can be good for 500-1000 cycles.
Through their experiments, the team also demonstrated a very high energy density for the prototype battery, clocking 1,200 mAh per gram of the electrode material, around six times that offered by today's lithium-ion battery technology.
“A rechargeable battery is a bit like a rocking chair. It tips in one direction, but then rocks back when you add electricity,” says study author Hongjie Dai. “What we have here is a high-rocking rocking chair.”
The team imagines the battery finding use in hearing aids or remote controls, or being used to power devices that only require infrequent recharging like satellites or remote sensors that could be topped up with solar. For use in smartphones and electric vehicles, the scientists will need to scale up the battery and engineer a suitable structure, while also increasing the number of times it can be safely cycled.
The research was published in the journal Nature.
This weekend’s musical diversion. Luigi Boccherini, a cellist composed as fine a piano concerto as anyone. Approx. 16 minutes.
Luigi Boccherini - Piano Concerto in E-flat major, G.487 (c.1768)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6ZQMSAuWoU
This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 13 minutes.
Magnus With The Moves!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBX4l5xv_cs
This weekend’s maths update. Approx. 5 minutes.
Golden Proof – Numberphile
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTWKKvlZB08
Finally, it’s all hands to the pump when monetary tragedy strikes.
The World Is Awash in Dollar Liquidity That No One Wants
Tracy Alloway September 2, 2021, 12:07 AM EDT
As always, I’m only too willing to do my part, I'm always here to help. These dollars aren’t unwanted merely misplaced. My place is the right place for these unwanted, lonely, unappreciated dollars. Graeme’s, Great British Happy Rescue Home for Distressed, Tired and Lonely Unloved Dollars.
Send all your unwanted dollars to my place and I will give them a valued, truly appreciated, friendly, happy home on the right side of the Atlantic, for life.
No unwanted, unloved, or distressed dollar is ever turned away, no matter how tattered, dirty, or covered in strange chalk-like white material.
Please let Joey, Janet and Jerry in Washington know their dollar nightmare is over. For once I am part of the solution. No dollar will ever be left behind!
For ease of transfer, use the PayPal button on this blog.
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