Baltic Dry Index. 4560 +105 Brent Crude 76.35
Spot Gold 1764
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 23/09/21 World 230,882,741
Deaths 4,732,838
“For inflation, we appear to have achieved more than significant progress, substantial further progress. That part of the test is achieved in my view and the view of many others.”
Fed Chairman Arthur Burns Jerome
Powell.
As expected, the Fed did nothing yesterday, though it patted itself on the back for winning the transitory inflation war.
For the real story on inflation and what’s coming next scroll down to the Global Inflation section.
But today’s really big story is in the Covid-19 section. How America funded the research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology, that released, either accidentally or deliberately, SARS-CoV-2 on the world. Yes Dr Fauci laundered the US funding via the private EcoHealth Alliance in NYC, but he was knowingly funding dangerous research banned in the USA.
European markets head for higher open as investors digest Fed comments
European stocks are expected to open higher Thursday as global markets react to the latest statements from the U.S. Federal Reserve in which it said it was not ready to taper monetary stimulus yet.
Britain’s FTSE is seen opening 25 points higher at 7,101, Germany’s DAX 71 points higher at 15,561, France’s CAC 40 up 27 points at 6,657 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 97 points higher at 25,490, according to IG data.
European stocks are set to follow their U.S. counterparts with a solid rally after the Federal Reserve indicated on Wednesday that it doesn’t see an imminent rollback of the monetary stimulus that has been supporting the economy throughout the pandemic.
“If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted,” the Fed’s post-meeting statement said, however. The central bank has been buying $120 billion a month of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities since the start of the Covid crisis.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep short-term rates anchored near zero on Wednesday and was still split on the timing of the first interest rate hike. Wednesday’s so-called dot plot of projections showed nine of the 18 FOMC members expect a rate increase in 2022, up from seven in June’s Fed projections.
Shares in Asia-Pacific were mostly higher in Thursday trade as investors in Asia-Pacific continue monitoring the situation surrounding China Evergrande Group.
Shares of China Evergrande Group in the city jumped more than 12%, paring some gains after soaring more than 20% earlier. That was also after days of losses — although its year-to-date plunge is still more than 80%.
European markets will be keeping a close eye on flash euro zone composite PMI data on Thursday for a picture of the region’s economic state of health.
Attention will be on the Bank of England too as it announces its latest monetary policy decision. Other data releases include Spanish and Dutch gross domestic product for the second quarter and France’s business climate data for September.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, says tapering of bond buying coming ‘soon’
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held benchmark interest rates near zero but indicated that rate hikes could be coming sooner than expected, and it significantly cut its economic outlook for this year.
Along with those largely expected moves, officials on the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee indicated they will start pulling back on some of the stimulus the central bank has been providing during the financial crisis. There was no specific indication, though, as to when that might happen.
“If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted,” the FOMC’s post-meeting statement said. Respondents to a recent CNBC survey said they expect tapering of bond purchases to be announced in November and begin in December.
----For now, the committee voted unanimously to keep short-term rates anchored near zero.
However, more members now see the first rate hike happening in 2022. In June, when members last released their economic projections, a slight majority put that increase into
2023.
More
The Fed is evaluating whether to launch a digital currency and in what form, Powell says
The Federal Reserve is pushing ahead with its study into whether to implement its own digital currency and will be releasing a paper on the issue shortly, Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday.
No decision has been made on the matter yet, he added, and said the Fed does not feel pressured to do something quickly as other nations move forward with their own projects.
“I think it’s important that we get to a place where we can make an informed decision about this and do so expeditiously,” Powell said at his post-meeting news conference. “I don’t think we’re behind. I think it’s more important to do this right than to do it fast.”
Powell added the Fed is “working proactively to evaluate whether to issue a CBDC, and if so in what form.”
Establishing a digital dollar has been on the Fed’s radar for more than a year, and it announced in May it would launch a deeper examination into the issue with a paper to follow.
The Boston Fed has taken point on the project, joining with MIT in an initiative on whether the central bank should establish its own digital coin targeted at making the payments system more effective. Fed Governor Lael Brainard has been a strong advocate of the effort, though several other officials, including Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles, have cast doubts.
More
Elsewhere, slowing growth in Asia, but look away from the roaring Baltic Dry (shipping) Index and the rising oil price.
ADB cuts Asia growth forecast on slow Covid vaccine rollout
Issued on: 22/09/2021 - 03:48
The Asian Development Bank warned of "lasting scars" from the coronavirus pandemic as it cut its 2021 growth forecast for developing Asia on slow vaccination rates, surging infections and crippling lockdowns.
A shortage of doses, which has hampered efforts to inoculate the vast region stretching from the Cook Islands in the Pacific to Kazakhstan in Central Asia, could worsen as evidence of waning vaccine protection increases demand for booster shots, the lender said Wednesday.
The Philippines-based ADB forecast growth of 7.1 percent -- compared with its previous prediction in April of 7.3 percent and a slight contraction in 2020 -- but said the recovery "remains fragile".
Vaccination rates have been uneven across the region, where less than a third of the population was fully protected against Covid-19 at the end of August, the lender said in an update of its flagship Asian Development Outlook.
That compared with more than 50 percent coverage in the United States and nearly 60 percent in the European Union.
The ADB warned that delayed vaccine rollouts and the emergence of new variants were among the biggest risks to the outlook -- and could have long-term damaging consequences.
"Income losses caused by the pandemic in particular threaten to leave lasting scars and have a multidimensional effect on regional economies," the ADB said.
Progress on reducing poverty in developing Asia had been set back "at least two years", and prolonged school closures would lead to higher-than-expected learning and earning losses.
While the regional economy was expected to expand this year and next, the recovery had "diverged" in the first half of 2021 as the hyper-contagious Delta variant ripped through some countries.
In two-thirds of the developing Asian economies, the share of the population that has been fully vaccinated was 30 percent or lower, the ADB said.
"Growth tended to be stronger in economies that had progressed the most in controlling the pandemic," it said.
East Asia, where vaccination rates were among the highest in the region and governments were quick to contain outbreaks, was set to grow 7.6 percent this year, compared with an earlier forecast of 7.4 percent.
More
Global Inflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
CO2 crisis set to spread to Europe, big distributor warns
Nippon Gases says its supplies have fallen 50 per cent across region
22 September, 2021.
The UK carbon dioxide shortage threatening industries from healthcare to food is spilling over into Europe, one of the world’s largest distributors of the gas has warned.
Nippon Gases, which sold almost $1.5bn of industrial gases on the continent last year, said “other countries in Europe will also suffer shortages” of CO2, estimating that its supplies had fallen 50 per cent across the region. Soaring natural gas prices have forced closures of fertiliser plants, the UK’s main source of CO2 used to make drinks fizzy, stun animals for slaughter and cool nuclear power plants.
Nippon’s stark message was echoed by the head of Yara, the Norwegian chemicals group that announced last week it would slash 40 per cent of its European production of ammonia — an important input for one of the most commonly used fertilisers.
Svein Tore Holsether, its chief executive, said record natural gas prices were crippling the profitability of European fertiliser plants, which used the fossil fuel as a feedstock to make ammonia.
“We’re running at a huge negative cash flow,” he added. “Ammonia production with today’s natural gas prices and today’s spot prices for ammonia is simply not profitable in Europe.”
He said natural gas was costing the group $900 per tonne of ammonia it made, resulting in a deep loss of $300 for each unit sold and making it economic to import ammonia to make finished fertiliser products.
Yara’s announcement followed the closure of two CF Industries fertiliser plants in the UK, where surging natural gas prices have stung a number of industries.
The UK government struck a deal with CF on Tuesday to provide financial support to restart the plant. Environment secretary George Eustice said the government would support CF “just for a few weeks” at a cost of “possibly tens of millions” of pounds.
Along with the wave of fertiliser plant stoppages, many electricity providers are on the verge of bankruptcy and sectors from soft drinks to meat are affected.
Industrial gas companies are prioritising CO2 supplies to end users. Japanese-owned Nippon Gases, which supplies Scandinavian and western European nations including Sweden, France and Germany, said nuclear power stations, meat production and medical purposes were top of the list.
Carbonic Solutions, a Dutch group that supplies the UK with CO2 generated by biogas plants, warned that special equipment to transport the gas was in short supply as distributors including Linde, Air Liquide and Air Products started sending trailers further afield for CO2 supplies.
“You have an issue where you don’t have the distribution assets to bring them where they need to be,” said Christopher Carson, managing director.
Apart from the UK, Yara said it would reduce output in countries including Norway, the Netherlands, Germany and Italy.
“The impact is massive. We expect more and more shutdowns in western and eastern Europe and Ukraine,” said Jennifer Willis-Jones, commodity analyst at CRU.
Nippon Gases said it expected gas and electricity futures markets to remain tight into spring next year.
Allan Pickett, head of analysis at IHS Markit’s Fertecon, said fertiliser plants in the UK and northern Europe needed gas prices to be about 20 per cent lower than current levels to break even.
“As long as gas prices remain at current levels it will be a serious situation for most European producers,” he added.
https://www.ft.com/content/475ca564-66b1-49b7-b6ce-f6f682deeac8
Britain tells its food industry to prepare for CO2 price shock
September 22, 20219:54 AM BST
LONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Britain warned its food producers to prepare for a 500% rise in carbon dioxide prices on Wednesday after extending emergency state support to avert a shortage of poultry and meat triggered by soaring costs of wholesale natural gas.
Natural gas prices have spiked this year as economies reopened from COVID-19 lockdowns and high demand for liquefied natural gas in Asia pushed down supplies to Europe, sending shockwaves through industries reliant on natural gas.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a by-product of the fertilizer industry where natural gas is the biggest input cost.
This has forced some plants to shut in recent weeks, leading to a shortage of the gas used to put the fizz into beer and sodas and stun poultry and pigs before slaughter. read more
As CO2 stocks dwindled, Britain struck a deal with U.S. company CF Industries (CF.N) to restart production at two plants which were shut because they had become unprofitable.
"We need the market to adjust, the food industry knows there's going to be a sharp rise in the cost of carbon dioxide," Environment Secretary George Eustice told Sky News.
It would have to accept that the price of CO2 would rise sharply, to around 1,000 pounds ($1,365) a tonne from 200 pounds a tonne, Eustice said, adding: "So a big, sharp rise."
The three-week support for CF, which supplies some 60% of Britain's CO2, would cost "many millions, possibly tens of millions but it's to underpin some of those fixed costs," Eustice said.
The government gave few details about the deal to take on some of the fixed costs of CF, based in the Chicago suburb of Deerfield, which highlights the severity of the distortions that the spike in European natural gas prices have wrought.
----But the boss of supermarket Iceland said the temporary deal to supply carbon dioxide would not solve food industry problems.
"A three week deal won’t save Christmas," said Richard Walker, Iceland's managing director. "And certainly won’t resolve the issue in the long term - we need a permanent solution to keep the wheels turning for fresh food supplies."
Eustice said some of Britain's meat and poultry processors would have run out of CO2 within days.
More
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-pay-tens-millions-get-carbon-dioxide-pumping-again-2021-09-22/
There’s a Fortune to Be Made in the Obscure Metals Behind Clean Power
By Andrew Janes, David Stringer and Adrian Leung 21 September 2021
The era-defining shift from fossil fuels to clean energy will deliver an unprecedented new boom for commodities—and an opportunity for investors—as a range of relatively obscure materials become essential to delivering emissions-free power, transport and heavy industry.
The transition could require as much as $173 trillion in energy supply and infrastructure investment over the next three decades, according to research provider BloombergNEF, and will reverberate from lithium-rich salt flats in Chile to polysilicon plants in China’s Xinjiang region.
As electric vehicles supplant gas guzzlers, and solar panels and wind turbines replace coal and oil as the world’s most important energy sources, metals like lithium, cobalt and rare earths are on the brink of rapidly accelerating demand, along with more familiar industrial materials like steel and copper.
“The energy transition is driving the next commodity supercycle,” said Jessica Fung, head strategist at Zug, Switzerland-based Pala Investments Ltd., which funds mining projects tied to decarbonization. “It is a decades-long transition, but the time to invest and make money is this decade. The time is now.”
Prospects for technology manufacturers, metals producers and energy traders are immense, while regular investors are already benefiting. Numerous clean-energy stocks have more than doubled in value since the start of 2020, and the emergence of futures contracts for battery materials and a proliferation of initial public offerings in the sector will extend options to gain exposure.
Though shifting demand patterns are being signposted far in advance, project developers urgently need to secure capital for new mines or production lines. Efforts to lift supplies of key raw materials—which can require years of exploration and construction—must begin now to keep pace with future requirements. That pressure could be most pronounced for EV charging infrastructure and lithium-ion batteries, which face steep growth curves, though more established solar and wind sectors have been challenged this year by pricier commodities.
Failing to act fast enough could even risk an economic shock comparable to the oil crises of the 1970s, said Robert Johnston, an adjunct senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University in New York. Concerns about future bottlenecks are reflected in the eye-watering gains of some green stocks. “I don’t see an easy solution because these supply chains don’t magically appear overnight,” he said.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Today, how the USA funded and unwittingly released Covid-19 on the world. Knowingly funded by Fauci, laundered through the NYC EcoHealth Alliance to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where much of the gain of function research was conducted in level 2 and level 3 labs, not the top security level 4 lab.
What does Biden intend to do about this scandal that’s already killed over 4.7 million people globally and infected over 230 million? More in the Weekend LIR update.
“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four.”
George Orwell.
Exposed!
How EcoHealth Alliance and the Wuhan Institute of Virology Collaborated on a Dangerous Bat Coronavirus Project
“The DARPA DEFUSE Project”
DRASTIC was recently made aware of documents provided by a whistleblower, which show that EcoHealth Alliance (EHA) in concert wIth the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) attempted to carry out advanced and dangerous human pathogenicity Bat Coronavirus research that would clearly qualify as Gain of Function (GoF), in a grant proposal submitted to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) in 2018.
Document 1. A brief DRASTIC Analysis of the EcoHealth Alliance DEFUSE Proposal
DEFUSE PROJECT DRASTIC ANALYSISDownload
Document 2: The Reasons why the DEFUSE Proposal was Rejected by DARPA
DEFUSE PROJECT REJECTION BY DARPADownload
Peter Daszak and the EcoHealth Alliance (EHA) proposed injecting deadly chimeric bat coronaviruses collected by the Wuhan Institute of Virology into humanised and “batified” mice.
The EHA / WIV proposal (named ‘DEFUSE’) was ultimately rejected for full funding (but leaving open the door for partial funding), in part because it mis-interpreted the GOF guidelines.
In other words, a branch of the federal government had already judged aspects of EHA’s research, and the corresponding shared research plan with the WIV, as falling under the definition of GOF, only for HHS to approve similar work without P3CO review in 2018 and 2019.
More
https://drasticresearch.org/2021/09/20/1583/amp/?__twitter_impression=true&s=09
A New US/Japan Variant To Watch
Sep 20, 2021,12:15pm ED
A new variant has been detected in a Kentucky nursing home, infecting 45 residents and health care personnel. Many of these infections arose in fully vaccinated individuals. The variant, which originated in Japan, has over 10,000 entries in the GISAID SARS-CoV-2 database. The variant contains five mutations previously noted in variants of concern or interest, two of which are in the Spike protein (Figure 1). It also contains many unique mutations. Here we describe the potential effects of each mutation on replication, immune evasion, and pathogenesis.
The R.1 variant shares a common origin with all variants of interest or concern. They are marked by what I call the Triad, three mutations, one the 5’ untranslated region: C241U, a second in the viral polymerase NSP12: P323L, and the third D614G in the exterior S1 domain of the spike protein. The D614G mutation increases the infectivity. The contribution of the other two members of the Triad remains a mystery. Together these three mutations characterize the first major variant first observed in early 2020. That virus soon displaced almost all of the original Wuhan isolates. The Triad virus is the parent of all variants of concern or, interest including Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Lambda, and Mu. Only two currently circulating variants, A.30 and A.23.1, both of East Africa origin, lack the Triad and are most likely independent descendants of the original Wuhan virus.
The spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 binds the host ACE2 receptor and initiates infection. The R.1 variant contains three Spike mutations, two of which are previously noted in other variants the other which is unique (Figure 2).
More. Much, much more.
Allegations first ‘superspreader’ Covid event occurred in Wuhan Military Games in October 2019
A high-profile Chinese defector has made an alarming allegation about the Chinese government’s role in potentially the world’s first Covid superspreader event.
Alexis CareySeptember 22, 2021 - 6:55AM
A Chinese whistleblower has made the bombshell claim that the Covid pandemic could have emerged in Wuhan months before the first outbreak was officially reported.
Chinese authorities confirmed the first cases were identified in Wuhan in mid-December 2019, with that information being released to the public weeks later.
But defector and democracy campaigner Wei Jingsheng made a stunning accusation in Sky News’ new documentary, What Really Happened In Wuhan, telling reporter Sharri Markson – who has also penned a book by the same name – that he believed the first Covid superspreader event could have occurred as early as October.
A Chinese whistleblower has made the bombshell claim that the Covid pandemic could have emerged in Wuhan months before the first outbreak was officially reported.
Chinese authorities confirmed the first cases were identified in Wuhan in mid-December 2019, with that information being released to the public weeks later.
But defector and democracy campaigner Wei Jingsheng made a stunning accusation in Sky News’ new documentary, What Really Happened In Wuhan, telling reporter Sharri Markson – who has also penned a book by the same name – that he believed the first Covid superspreader event could have occurred as early as October.
And in a horrifying revelation, he suggested it may have been intentional.
The World Military Games – likened to the Olympic Games for military athletes – were held in Wuhan from October 19-27, 2019.
More than 9000 athletes from over 100 countries across the globe attended – and soon after, reports emerged that some had fallen ill from a mystery sickness.
----- Miles Yu, the former Principal China Adviser to the US State Department, said athletes from France, Germany and the US were among those who had fallen ill after the Games.
He said the symptoms were very similar to what would later be known as common Covid-19 symptoms, which “obviously deserved investigation”.
However, the athletes were never tested – but high-profile Chinese defector and democracy campaigner Wei Jingsheng told Markson that by that stage, he already knew something was very wrong in Wuhan, based on intelligence he had received as a former Chinese Communist Party insider.
More
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Maybe they’ve forgotten about the Hindenburg.
German auto giants place their bets on hydrogen cars
September 22, 20217:30 AM BST
MUNICH, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Battery power may be the frontrunner to become the car technology of the future, but don't rule out the underdog hydrogen.
That's the view of some major automakers, including BMW (BMWG.DE) and Audi (VOWG_p.DE), which are developing hydrogen fuel-cell passenger vehicle prototypes alongside their fleets of battery cars as part of preparations to abandon fossil fuels.
They are hedging their bets, calculating that a change in political winds could shift the balance towards hydrogen in an industry shaped by early-mover Tesla's (TSLA.O) decision to take the battery-powered road to clean cars.
Global auto hub Germany is in sharp focus. It is already betting billions on hydrogen fuel in sectors like steel and chemicals to meet climate targets, and closely-fought elections this month could see the Greens enter the coalition government and further push the technology.
BMW is hydrogen's biggest proponent among Germany's carmakers, charting a path to a mass-market model around 2030. The company also has one eye on shifting hydrogen policies in Europe and in China, the world's largest car market.
The Munich-based premium player has developed a hydrogen prototype car based on its X5 SUV, in a project already partly funded by the German government.
Jürgen Guldner, the BMW vice president who heads up the hydrogen fuel-cell car programme, told Reuters the carmaker would build a test fleet of close to 100 cars in 2022.
"Whether this (technology) is driven by politics or demand, we will be ready with a product," he said, adding that his team is already working to develop the next generation vehicles.
"We're on the verge of getting there and we're really convinced we'll see a breakthrough in this decade," he said.
VW's premium Audi brand told Reuters it had assembled a team of more than 100 mechanics and engineers who were researching hydrogen fuel cells on behalf of the whole Volkswagen group, and had built a few prototype cars.
----Hydrogen is viewed as a sure bet by the world's biggest truckmakers, such as Daimler AG (DAIGn.DE) unit Daimler Truck, Volvo Trucks (VOLVb.ST) and Hyundai (005380.KS), because batteries are too heavy for long-distance commercial vehicles.
Yet fuel cell technology - where hydrogen passes through a catalyst, producing electricity - is for now too costly for mass-market consumer cars. Cells are complex and contain expensive materials, and although refuelling is quicker than battery recharging, infrastructure is more scarce.
More
https://www.reuters.com/technology/german-auto-giants-place-their-bets-hydrogen-cars-2021-09-22/
“If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.”
George Orwell.
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