Baltic Dry Index. 4132 -103 Brent Crude 72.99
Spot Gold 1814
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 01/09/21 World 218,557,003
Deaths 4,533,955
I will tell you the secret to getting rich on Wall Street. You try to be greedy when others are fearful. And you try to be fearful when others are greedy.
Warren Buffett.
Today, no more Afghan war, not that anyone in the stock casinos ever noticed that 20 year war. Now it’s on to new challenges everywhere else in the world according to President Biden.
You can’t really blame him for trying. After a major setback, the great challenge for a leader is to rally the spirit of the nation, provide uplifting rhetoric, set out a clear path for a bright future. Be Churchillian 1940s style. Who wants to dwell in an unpleasant past?
Besides, President Biden needs to address the needs of aftermath of hurricane Ida. The immediate needs of clean water, motor fuel, shelter, food, and medical care, rebuilding. Not an easy task with so much of the power supply damaged.
Up first, life in the Asian casinos goes on, though there are rising concerns that China’s economic slowdown might be the start of a trend.
Asia stocks mostly rise; private survey shows Chinese factory activity shrinking in August
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific were mostly higher in Wednesday trade, as a private survey showed shrinking Chinese factory activity in August.
Mainland Chinese stocks were mixed as the Shanghai composite advanced 0.86% while the Shenzhen component rose 0.322%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged 0.62% higher.
The Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for August came in at 49.2 on Wednesday, below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction.
Deutsche Bank International Private Bank’s Tuan Huynh said the August reading was not unexpected, adding that the company has lowered its growth forecast for Chinese GDP this year to 8.2% from 8.7%.
“We have seen some weakness in the previous weeks and months already,” Huynh, chief investment officer for Europe and Asia-Pacific at the firm, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Wednesday. “Overall I think China is still here moving ahead and also moving in the right direction.”
The Wednesday private survey release came after the official manufacturing PMI released Tuesday showed slowing Chinese factory activity growth in August, coming in at 50.1 against July’s reading of 50.4.
PMI readings above 50 represent expansion, while those below that level signal contraction. PMI readings are sequential and represent month-on-month expansion or contractions.
Elsewhere in Japan, the Nikkei 225 gained 1.2% while the Topix index advanced 0.89%. Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.14%.
Australian stocks lagged as the S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.31%. Australia’s gross domestic product rose 0.7% in the June quarter, according to data released by the country’s statistics bureau. That was above expectations for a 0.5% increase, according to Reuters.
Overnight stateside, the S&P 500 declined 0.13% to 4,522.68 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 39.11 points to 35,360.73. The Nasdaq Composite dipped fractionally to about 15,259.24.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/01/asia-markets-china-economy-currencies-oil.html
Next, after victory in war, can the Taliban actually govern Afghanistan in peace?
New Taliban rulers face tough economic, security challenges
August 31, 021
KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Afghanistan’s new Taliban rulers face tough economic and security challenges as they step back into power in a country that is vastly different from the one they left 20 years ago.
When they last ruled in the late 1990s, Afghanistan was a poor agricultural nation, and the Taliban were preoccupied with imposing their harsh brand of Islam on an already deeply traditional and largely compliant population.
This time, they’re inheriting a more developed society with a small, educated middle class, but also an economy that has been devastated by war and corruption. Even before the Taliban overran Kabul on Aug. 15, the jobless rate was more than 30% and more than half of Afghans lived in poverty, despite two decades of U.S. involvement and billions of dollars in aid.
The Taliban have sought to reassure Afghans that they’ve changed from 1996, when they ruled with a heavy hand. Men had to grow beards and women had to wear the all-encompassing burqa. Girls were denied education and entertainment like music and television were shunned.
That past haunts many Afghans, and there is an underlying sense of fear that the Taliban of old lurk below the surface of the country’s new rulers. It’s keeping many people away from returning to their jobs, despite assurances from the Taliban, and it has prompted thousands to seek a future outside Afghanistan.
“The Taliban’s greatest challenge is to ... embrace others in governing Afghanistan,” said Torek Farhadi, a former adviser to the toppled Western-backed government.
----Today’s Taliban have been conciliatory, urging former opponents to return to the country and promising not to exact revenge.
Their first big test is the formation of a new government. They have promised it will include non-Taliban figures, but it’s not clear if they are genuinely willing to share power.
An inclusive government could go far in slowing a mass exodus of Afghans, particularly the young and educated, and persuading the international community to keep sending desperately needed aid.
The Taliban have conflicting demands and constituencies to please. Even among the leaders, there are contradictory views of how to govern. In addition, Afghanistan’s tribal elders are another powerful group that can’t be ignored.
Then there are the thousands of fighters whose formative years have been spent on the battlefield and who are imbued with a sense of victory over a superpower. It’s heady stuff for many of the young fighters, and convincing them that compromise is for the common good may be difficult, if not impossible.
----Time also is not on the side of the Taliban.
The economy has been in the doldrums for years. If peace comes to Afghanistan, its citizens will increase their demands for economic relief — a near impossibility if the international community, which had funded 80% of former President Ashraf Ghani’s government, withdraws its support.
A new government must deliver quickly and ease the economic crisis, said Michael Kugelman, an analyst at the Wilson Center, a U.S.-based think tank.
If it fails, “you have to start contemplating the possibility of large-scale protests against the Taliban that would clearly represent a major challenge to the Taliban as it attempts to consolidate its power,” he said.
But how far the Taliban are willing to bend to ease international concerns, while staying true to their own set of beliefs, could further widen divisions among the leadership, particularly those with more rigid ideology.
More
https://apnews.com/article/business-taliban-c2c6b525b4d9df0951c5ac75aef48e90
Finally, Ida’s aftermath. Later today, early damage assessment from the oil and gas industry.
True scope of Ida's destruction becoming clearer in wake of storm
By AccuWeather staff writer
Published Aug. 31, 2021 4:53 PM BST | Updated Aug. 31, 2021 9:39 PM BST
Two days after Hurricane Ida slammed into the Louisiana coastline near Port Fourchon as a Category 4 hurricane, the true scope of Ida's destruction was just starting to be revealed.
At least four deaths have been attributed to the storm across the South, including two killed Monday night near Lucedale, Mississippi, where seven vehicles plunged into a 20-foot-deep chasm after a highway collapsed during torrential rains, The Associated Press reported.
AccuWeather National Reporter Bill Wadell, reporting from just outside Houma, Louisiana, which is about 50 miles to the southwest of New Orleans, saw roofs ripped off homes and debris littering the streets. With wireless service in the area barely working and power out across Houma, survivors and loved ones were struggling to make contact with each other.
In New Orleans, residents in leveed areas of the city celebrated the success of the federally constructed levees that protect the city from experiencing a Katrina-like flooding event.
"For the most part, all of our levees performed extremely well, especially the federal levees," said Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards.
Levees protecting smaller communities outside New Orleans did fail, though, sending a wave of water into parts of Plaquemines Parish, where residents were urged to evacuate late Sunday after a levee failed in Alliance, about 20 miles south of New Orleans. In the small town of Jean Lafitte, also south of the city, a levee failure "devastated" the city, according to Tim Kerner, the mayor.
"We’ve lost our school, everything,” Kerner told WGNO. “But now with people’s lives ... it’s turned into a total rescue mission. People’s lives, I believe, are at stake now and we’re trying to get to them as fast as we can." Kerner added that as soon as the weather breaks, "we’re going to send an army to them.”
----Back in New Orleans, officials warned that power could be out in Orleans Parish for weeks, and local institutions are making plans accordingly. Tulane University announced plans to evacuate its campus of all remaining students and take them to Houston. The school will not resume in-person instruction until Oct. 11, according to reporting from NOLA.com.
Meanwhile, even though sunny blue skies had returned to much of coastal Louisiana by Monday afternoon, signs of the long road to recovery that lies ahead were abundant.
Residents in and around the city were also seeing very long lines for gas and food, with lines at gas stations with fuel and groceries with generators stretching around blocks.
Ida’s sweltering aftermath: No power, no water, no gasoline
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Hundreds of thousands of Louisianans sweltered in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida on Tuesday with no electricity, no tap water, precious little gasoline and no clear idea of when things might improve.
Long lines that wrapped around the block formed at the few gas stations that had fuel and generator power to pump it. People cleared rotting food out of refrigerators. Neighbors shared generators and borrowed buckets of swimming pool water to bathe or to flush toilets.
“We have a lot of work ahead of us and no one is under the illusion that this is going to be a short process,” Gov. John Bel Edwards said as the cleanup and rebuilding began across the soggy region in the oppressive late-summer heat.
New Orleans officials announced seven places around the city where people could get a meal and sit in air conditioning. The city was also using 70 transit buses as cooling sites and will have drive-thru food, water and ice distribution locations set up on Wednesday, Mayor LaToya Cantrell said. Edwards said state officials also were working to set up distribution locations in other areas.
Cantrell ordered a nighttime curfew Tuesday, calling it an effort to prevent crime after Hurricane Ida devastated the power system and left the city in darkness. Police Chief Shaun Ferguson said there had been some arrests for stealing.
The mayor also said she expects the main power company Entergy to be able to provide some electricity to the city by Wednesday evening, but stressed that doesn’t mean a quick citywide restoration. Entergy was looking at two options to “begin powering critical infrastructure in the area such as hospitals, nursing homes and first responders,” the company said in a news release.
----With water treatment plants overwhelmed by floodwaters or crippled by power outages, some places were also facing shortages of drinking water. About 441,000 people in 17 parishes had no water, and an additional 319,000 were under boil-water advisories, federal officials said.
----Adding to the misery was the steamy weather. A heat advisory was issued for New Orleans and the rest of the region, with forecasters saying the combination of high temperatures and humidity could make it feel like 105 degrees Fahrenheit (41 degrees Celsius) on Tuesday and 106 on Wednesday.
Global Inflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
US Debt Clock.
The interest on US official debt is now rising at $1,000 a second. In reality higher.
Two more factors have popped up that add to the Fed’s inflation worries
Trends in home prices and consumer expectations that were part of data releases Tuesday pointed to more inflationary issues on the horizon for the U.S. economy.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index, which measures home prices across 20 major U.S. cities, rose 1.77% in June, bringing the year-over-year gain to a staggering 19.1%. That’s the largest jump in the series’ history going back to 1987.
For perspective, the biggest annual gain in prices prior to the subprime meltdown and 2008 financial crisis was the 14.4% increase in September 2005.
At the same time, The Conference Board reported that consumer inflation expectations ticked higher again, with respondents to the survey now seeing the metric running at 6.8% 12 months from now. That’s up a full percentage point from a year ago, or 17.2% on a relative basis.
More
Euro zone inflation hits 10-year high ahead of key central bank meeting
Published Tue, Aug 31 2021 5:10 AM EDT
LONDON — Inflation in the euro zone rose again in August, ahead of a crucial European Central Bank meeting in just over a week’s time.
Consumer prices increased by 3% this month from a year ago, according to preliminary estimates published Tuesday, after rising by 2.2% in July.
It comes after Germany reported on Monday its highest consumer prices since 2008, with a headline inflation rate of 3.4% in August. France also reported its highest inflation rate in nearly three years on Tuesday.
The ECB, due to meet Sept. 9, is expected to discuss the future of its asset purchase program as its governing council seems divided about when to start relaxing stimulus measures.
Speaking on Monday, France’s central bank governor, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, said the ECB should take into consideration the recent economic recovery when discussing what to do with its Covid stimulus package.
Meanwhile, Finish central bank governor, Olli Rehn, said in an interview with Politico last week that the central bank needs to be cautious about withdrawing stimulus.
Minutes from the ECB’s last meeting showed that some members believed the bank’s stance was underestimating the risk of higher inflation.
Tuesday’s higher inflation numbers will likely put pressure on the euro zone’s central bankers, especially when combined with comments from the Federal Reserve in the United States, which is considering lifting stimulus before the year-end.
The ECB’s mandate is to achieve 2% headline inflation over the medium term. Its own forecasts are currently projecting a spike in inflation this year to 1.9%, due to what they describe as temporary factors, before falling to 1.5% and 1.4% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/31/euro-zone-inflation-august-2022-ahead-of-ecb-meeting.html
Weekly Commodity Snapshot
Agri Commodity Markets August 2021
Report highlights
• The S&P GSCI Agriculture Index rose 4.8% last week, as weather woes continue to impact agri commodity markets amid a broadly bullish USDA WASDE report.
• CBOT Wheat prices rose 5% last week following poor harvest results in western Europe and Russia and a supportive WASDE report from the USDA.
• ICE #11 Raw Sugar climbed an impressive 9.3% WOW. The BRL and Brent remained stable this week, which means sugar market fundamentals have been pushing prices higher.
• CBOT Corn rose 2.9% last week on the active contact, lifted by sharp cuts in US and Brazilian yields.
• CBOT Soybeans bounced 3% higher last week, to USD 13.75/bu, buoyed by a sharp cut in yields and stronger export demand.
More
https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/agri-commodity-markets/commodity_snapshot_weekly.html
Unfinished Tractors, Pickup Trucks Pile Up as Components Run Short
Supply-chain problems cause order backlogs, cutting into sales volumes for companies like Cleveland-Cliffs, Honeywell and Illinois Tool Works
Aug. 30, 2021 7:00 am ET
Manufacturers are stacking up unfinished goods on factory floors and parking incomplete vehicles in airport parking lots while waiting for missing parts, made scarce by supply-chain problems.
Shortages of mechanical parts, commodity materials and electronic components containing semiconductor chips have been disrupting manufacturing across multiple industries for months.
Companies determined to keep factories open are trying to work around shortages by producing what they can, at the same time rising customer demand has cleaned out store shelves, dealer showrooms and distribution centers. As a result, manufacturers are amassing big inventories of unsold or incomplete products such as truck wheels and farm tractors. Companies that are used to filling orders quickly now have bulging backlogs of orders, waiting for scarce parts or green lights from customers willing to take deliveries.
Executives expect the shortages and delivery bottlenecks, exacerbated by overwhelmed transportation networks and a lack of workers, to stretch into the fall. The delays are costing manufacturers sales and pushing some companies to revamp the way they put together their products, executives said.
“There’s clearly market strength out there, but you have to have the ability to deliver on that,” said David Petratis, chief executive officer of door-lock manufacturer Allegion PLC. “We have an extremely tight supply chain.”
Allegion’s order backlog has doubled to three to four months of production as the company waits for semiconductor chips and other electronic components to arrive for commercial lock systems. Mr. Petratis said some production lines have been repurposed to make products the company can still assemble.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Hmm. Well, if they say so? But aren’t these people supposed to be health care professionals who knew what they were doing?
Cause of Japan Moderna vaccine contamination likely found
Japan's health minister said the contamination that led to the suspension of millions of doses of COVID vaccine in Okinawa was likely caused when needles were incorrectly inserted into vials.
By REUTERS AUGUST 31, 2021 08:30
Japan's health minister said on Tuesday it was highly likely that foreign matter found in Moderna Inc COVID-19 vaccines in the southern prefecture of Okinawa were caused when needles were stuck into the vials.
Some Moderna shots were temporarily halted in Okinawa on Sunday after foreign materials were discovered in vials and syringes. The health ministry said later needles may have been incorrectly inserted into vials, breaking off bits of the rubber stopper.
"Whatever the reason (for the foreign matter) we have heard that there is no safety or other issues," Health Minister Norihisa Tamura told reporters, adding that it was not uncommon for foreign material to enter a vial with other vaccines.
"We will continue to gather information and report back," he added.
Japan is facing its biggest wave of COVID-19 infections so far during the pandemic, driven by the highly transmissable Delta variant.
A race to boost inoculations has been hampered by delays in imported vaccines and the discovery of the contaminants in some Moderna doses that prompted the suspension of three batches last week.
More
Immune response to COVID-19 vaccines declines after two months, study finds
Aug. 30, 2021 / 11:01 AM
Aug. 30 (UPI) -- Antibody levels drop by 20% two months after receipt of the second dose of the COVID-19 vaccine in adults previously infected with the virus, a study published Monday by Scientific Reports found.
Prior exposure to the virus also does not guarantee high levels of antibodies against it, the data showed.
Additionally, those infected with COVID-19 don't produce a "robust" antibody response after the first dose of the vaccine, an indication that both shots are needed even in those who were sickened earlier in the pandemic.
These findings suggest that people who have had mild or asymptomatic illness with COVID-19 have essentially the same antibody response to vaccination as those who have not been previously exposed, the researchers said.
"Many people, and many doctors, are assuming that any prior exposure to [COVID-19] will confer immunity to re-infection," study co-author Thomas McDade said in a press release.
However, "our study shows that prior exposure to [the virus] does not guarantee a high level of antibodies, nor does it guarantee a robust antibody response to the first vaccine dose," said McDade, a professor of anthropology at Northwestern University in Evanston, Ill.
The findings are based on an analysis of blood antibody levels in 27 people diagnosed with COVID-19 earlier in the pandemic and who later received one of the available two-dose vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech.
Levels of antibodies -- cells produced by the immune system to fight off viruses -- were assessed following both the first and second doses, according to the researchers.
Using at-home antibody testing kits developed by the researchers, participants submitted blood samples two to three weeks after their first and second vaccine doses and two months after the second dose, the researchers said.
In the lab, the researchers tested for neutralizing antibodies by measuring whether participants' blood samples could block the coronavirus' ability to cause an infection.
"When we tested blood samples from participants collected about three weeks after their second vaccine dose, the average level of inhibition was 98%, indicating a very high level of neutralizing antibodies," McDade said.
However, two months after participants were given the second dose of the vaccine, the antibody response declined by 20% and varied based on history of prior infection.
Participants with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and multiple symptoms had a higher level of immune response than those who tested positive but had mild symptoms or no symptoms, the data showed.
In addition, the level of antibody response following vaccination was significantly lower for virus variants that originated in South Africa, England and Brazil, and ranged from 67% to 92%.
The Delta variant, which is currently the dominant strain of COVID-19 in many parts of the United States and originated in India, was not part of the study.
More
High viral load in lungs major contributor to COVID-19 death, study says
Aug. 31, 2021 / 9:04 AM
A high amount of coronavirus in the lungs is a major contributor to death in COVID-19 patients, new research shows.
The findings challenge previous theories that simultaneous infections such as pneumonia or an overreaction of the body's immune system are significant factors in COVID-19 deaths, the researchers noted.
To come to that conclusion, the investigators analyzed bacterial and fungal samples from the lungs of 589 hospitalized COVID-19 patients who were severely ill and required mechanical ventilation.
On average, patients who died had 10 times the amount of virus in their lower airways than those who survived their illness.
"Our findings suggest that the body's failure to cope with the large numbers of virus infecting the lungs is largely responsible for COVID-19 deaths in the pandemic," said lead study author Dr. Imran Sulaiman, an adjunct professor in NYU Langone Health's department of medicine.
There was no evidence of secondary bacterial infection as the cause of the deaths, but this may be because the patients received large amounts of antibiotics, said the authors of the study published online Tuesday in the journal Nature Microbiology.
More
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2021/08/31/covid19-viral-load-lungs-death-study/4641630413596/
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Observing a higher-dimensional topological state with metamaterials
Date: August 27, 2021
Source: The University of Hong Kong
Summary: Linked Weyl surfaces, a novel type of topological phase that exists in five-dimensional space, have now been experimentally observed. The work provides a unique platform for exploring various topological phases, the transition between them, and the corresponding boundary effects in five dimensions.
Why topology and Weyl surfaces matter?
In geometry, topology concerns the global features of a shape, independent of the details -- a famous example being that a coffee mug and a donught-shaped ring (torus) are topologically equivalent because they can be continuously transformed into each other without experiencing dramatic changes, e.g. opening holes, tearing, gluing, etc.
The principle of topology has been successfully applied to physical systems and has led to the discovery of many intriguing phenomena, such as quantum Hall effect and robust one-way surface wave propagation without any backscattering. Topological physics also holds promise for novel devices and applications in both electronics and photonics, e.g large-scale topological quantum computation and topological laser. Among various topological physical systems, Weyl point, a massless state with linear dispersion along with all three directions, has received special attention as it serves as a kind of source of band topology. Weyl particles were first predicted by German physicist Hermann Weyl in 1929, but they have not been found as fundamental particles.
Weyl points were proposed to exist in certain material systems in the form of quasiparticles in recent years, and they were observed experimentally in 2015. Weyl points are the 3D counterparts of the famous Dirac points found in graphene -- a two-dimensional system consisting of a single layer of graphite. The extension of Weyl points from 3D to higher dimensions is expected to introduce more complicated and intriguing topological phenomena, e.g. high-dimensional quantum Hall effect. Specifically, its generalisation to five dimensions leads to two possible configurations -- Yang monopoles and linked Weyl surfaces. Yang monopoles, first proposed by Professor Chen-Ning YANG in 1978, are isolated points in the 5D momentum space, which serve as sources of non-abelian Berry curvature. Recently there have been demonstrations of Yang monopoles in purely synthetic dimensions. However, until now, there has been no experimental observation of Weyl surfaces, whose linking behaviour serves as a direct signature of the second Chern number.
---- What are the impacts and what's next?
This work opens doors to the investigation of various topological phases in higher dimensions. From the perspective of fundamental physics, it provides a unified view of different topological phases in lower dimensions, such as Weyl points, nodal lines, and Dirac points; for device applications, by taking designing parameters as additional synthetic dimensions, it leverages the concept of higher-dimension topology to control the propagation of electromagnetic waves in artificially engineered photonic media, e.g. realising robust integrated photonic circuits for optical information processing that is immune to scattering loss.
More
Nothing is so admirable in politics as a short memory.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
No comments:
Post a Comment