Baltic Dry Index. 4644 -07 Brent Crude 79.00
Spot Gold 1760
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 27/09/21 World 232,602,292
Deaths 4,761,948
"May you live in interesting times"
Alleged Chinese curse.
As stocks wobble towards the month-end and end of quarter mid-week, it’s more of the same as last week.
Continuing concerns over China Evergrande Group.
Non-transitory inflation fears, aggravated by the rising oil price, a sky high natural gas price and low inventory in Europe as winter approaches.
Chaos at UK petrol pumps as an alleged shortage of delivery drivers has caused UK motorists to panic buy the available supply. Hmmm.
To which is added the apparent win in the German election by the left-wing Social Democrats, although many weeks of horse trading with the minor parties lies ahead to form a government.
In the USA, the Federal Government is about to run out of money on September 30th, although in practice the debt ceiling always gets raised eventually, plus more speeches by Fed Chairman Powell.
All in all, it ought to be an interesting week.
Asia shares hesitant as oil hits 3-year highs
September 27, 20214:17 AM BST By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Asian shares got off to a cautious start on Monday as a jump in oil prices to three-year highs could inflame inflation fears and aggravate the recent hawkish turn by some major central banks.
Oil pushed past its July peaks as global output disruptions forced energy companies to pull large amounts of crude out of inventories, while a shortage of natural gas in Europe pushed costs up across the continent.
Brent added another 62 cents on Monday to $78.71 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 71 cents to $74.69.
"We forecast that this rally will continue, with our year-end Brent forecast of $90/bbl vs. $80/bbl previously," wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs in a client note.
"The current global oil supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above consensus forecast."
Such an increase could stoke speculation that global inflation will prove longer-lasting than first hoped and hasten the end of super-cheap money, favouring reflation trades in bank and energy stocks while bruising bond prices.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was flat, after three consecutive weeks of loss.
Japan's Nikkei (.N225) gained 0.4% on hopes for further fiscal stimulus once a new prime minister is chosen.
Nasdaq futures edged up 0.1%, and S&P 500 futures 0.3%.
The fate of China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) remained a major unknown after the property giant missed a payment on offshore bonds last week, with further payment due this week.
Stocks in Hong Kong have felt the most pressure, though the government in Beijing did add more liquidity to the financial system.
----Eyes will also be on U.S. fiscal policy with the House of Representatives due to vote on a $1 trillion infrastructure bill this week, while a Sept. 30 deadline on funding federal agencies could force the second partial government shutdown in three years. read more
The week is packed with U.S. Federal Reserve speeches led by Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday, with more than a dozen other events on the calendar.
More
https://www.reuters.com/business/global-markets-wrapup-1-pix-2021-09-27/
China Evergrande's electric car unit's shares tumble 26% after warning
September 27, 20213:14 AM BST
HONG KONG, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Shares of China Evergrande's electric car unit (0708.HK) plunged as much as 26% on Monday after it warned it faced an uncertain future unless it got a swift injection of cash and after it said it will not proceed with plans to issue RMB shares.
The warning by China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group after the market closed on Friday was the clearest sign yet that the embattled property developer's (3333.HK) liquidity crisis is worsening in other parts of its business.
Shares of the electric car unit slid to as low as HK$1.66 in early trade before paring losses to fall 2.2%. China Evergrande's stock rose 5% to steady near the decade-low they made last week, while Evergrande dollar bonds were at distressed levels.
In the broader market, concerns that a collapse at Evergrande could drive a global crisis have ebbed.
----Evergrande missed a payment deadline on a dollar bond last week and its silence on the matter has left global investors wondering if they will have to swallow large losses when a 30-day grace period ends. read more
Its next major test in public debt markets will come on Sept. 29, when it is due to make a $47.5 million bond interest payment on its 9.5% March 2024 dollar bond.
With liabilities of around $305 billion, Evergrande has run short of cash and rapidly become Beijing's biggest corporate headache, with investors worried a collapse could pose systemic risks to China's financial system.
More
Next, will the Fed taper at their next meeting on November 2nd and 3rd? And if they do, what happens to US stocks priced to perfection in the Exosphere?
Two Fed policymakers say bar for taper met, nod to next debates
September 24, 20211:49 PM By Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider
(Reuters) -A pair of Federal Reserve policymakers on Friday said they felt the U.S. economy is already in good enough shape for the central bank to begin to withdraw support for the economy, setting up for the next big Fed debates: when to raise interest rates and what to do with the Fed’s massive balance sheet.
In separate appearances, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester and Kansas City Fed President Esther George both said that the economy had made “substantial further progress” toward the Fed’s maximum employment and 2% inflation goal. That’s the bar the Fed has set for beginning to taper its current $120 billion in monthly asset purchases, aimed at pushing down longer-term interest rates.
The remarks came days after Fed Chair Powell said the economy is one “decent” monthly jobs report short of meeting that threshold, allowing the Fed to begin to reduce its monthly asset purchases by the Fed’s next meeting Nov. 2-3.
“The rationale for continuing to add to our asset holdings each month has waned,” George told the American Enterprise Institute
More
Finally, some reality behind those collapsing UK “green” energy suppliers.
Green Energy Companies Fold
SEPTEMBER 25, 2021 By Paul Homewood
One of the delicious ironies of the current energy crisis has been the collapse of some of the small green energy companies that have sprung up in the last few years.
I say irony, because it is the very same green policies, which they espoused and hoped to make money out of, that have directly led to this crisis and their demise.
Some of them, such as a company known as “Green.” have been lashing out right, left and centre, blaming their problems on government, the weather, Brexit and goodness knows what else.
The reality is that most, if not all, of them have been poorly run and under capitalised from the start.
Green, registered as Green Supplier Ltd, is one such tinpot company. Even last year, before the crisis started, their Accounts show they were to all intents and purposes broke:
----Hardly surprising then that they could not manage their way through the crisis now. Most of these new entrants have tried to enter the industry on the cheap, hoping to undercut the big companies and make a fast buck.
In Green.’s case, share capital was just £10, and they appear to have relied on upfront customer payments for their cash flow. (Normally, when you sign up as a new customer, the energy company takes your direct debit straightaway, so you are always paying a month in advance.)
The whole business model of these sort of companies has been a scam from the start, pretending to supply renewable electricity to gullible consumers. But when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine, they have to buy power from other sources.
If they were only buying wind and solar power, of course, they would not be exposed to gas price rises!
But their scam has been even worse. Wind and solar power have for years cost much more than conventional electricity, but the subsidies paid out for it have been added onto everybody’s bills. If customers of these green energy suppliers had to pay the full cost of wind and solar, they would quickly take their business elsewhere.
Yet, for some strange reason, the likes of Green. think taxpayers should be bailing them out!
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/09/26/green-energy-companies-fold/
Inflation is taxation without legislation.
Milton
Friedman.
Global Inflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Column: Worldwide energy shortage shows up in surging coal, gas and oil prices
September 24, 20215:27 PM BST
LONDON, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Record gas and electricity prices in Europe, record coal prices in China, multiyear-high gas prices in the United States and oil prices well above their real long-term average are all manifestations of the same global energy shortage.
In the aftermath of the coronavirus recession, energy production has failed to keep up with rapid growth in consumption as energy producers struggle to raise output while demand has bounced back quickly.
The business cycle downturn and slump in energy prices caused by the pandemic, and before that the U.S./China trade conflict, depressed investment throughout the energy sector in 2019/2020.
Since then, the global economy has experienced an exceptionally rapid cyclical recovery, aided by low interest rates, bond buying and massive government spending, which has focused on energy-intensive merchandise rather than services, boosting energy consumption at extraordinary rates.
The result is a severe cyclical shortage of energy, evident in below-average inventories and surging prices for coal, gas and oil in all the major consuming regions of the world.
More
Oil hits highest in almost 3 years as supply tightens
September 24, 20218:12 PM BST
· Summary
· Brent closes at highest since October 2018
· NY ULSD futures hit highest in almost three years
· U.S. oil/gas rig count rises for 14th month - Baker Hughes
· India's crude imports at three-month peak in August
· Iran says it will return to talks on nuclear deal soon
NEW YORK, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a third week in a row to a near three-year high on Friday as global output disruptions have forced energy companies to pull large amounts of crude out of inventories.
The rally was slightly dampened by China's first public sale of state crude reserves.
Brent futures rose 84 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $78.09 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 68 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $73.98.
That was the highest close for Brent since October 2018 and for WTI since July 2021, both for a second day in a row.
More
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-looks-set-test-3-year-high-supplies-tighten-2021-09-24/
European Coal Rises to 13-Year High on Power-Plant Demand
Jesper Starn September 24, 2021, 7:58 AM EDT
· Sky-high gas prices have pushed utilities to burn more coal
· Supplies from Australia, South Africa and Colombia restricted
European coal for next-year delivery rose to the highest level since 2008 on strong demand from power stations and low stockpiles.
More
Costco brings back limits on toilet paper, other items due to panic buying
Sept. 24, 2021 / 10:44 AM
Sept. 24 (UPI) -- Discount retailer Costco says it's again limiting purchases for some items, including toilet paper and bottled water, due to supply chain issues and renewed demand amid COVID-19 surges nationwide.
The company said Thursday that the limits are a response to some panic buying at various locations that has occurred amid a rise in infections, due mainly to the Delta coronavirus variant.
Costco Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti said the limits apply to high-demand items like toilet paper, bottled water, paper towels and some cleaning products.
"The factors pressuring supply chains and inflation include port delays, container shortages, COVID disruptions, shortages on various components, raw materials and ingredients, labor cost pressures, and trucker and driver shortages," he said, according to AlphaStreet.
Costco first introduced buying limits on certain items last year due to rises in coronavirus cases and panic buying that followed.
Galanti also noted that delays and shortages are affecting availability of furniture, computers and appliances.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2021/09/24/costco-limits-toilet-paper-covid/7111632489785/
To me, a wise and humane policy is occasionally to let inflation rise even when inflation is running above target.
Janet
Yellen.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19 pandemic cut life expectancy by most since World War Two –study
September 27, 202112:23 AM BST
LONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The COVID-19 pandemic reduced life expectancy in 2020 by the largest amount since World War Two, according to a study published on Monday by Oxford University, with the life expectancy of American men dropping by more than two years.
Life expectancy fell by more than six months compared with 2019 in 22 of the 29 countries analysed in the study, which spanned Europe, the United States and Chile. There were reductions in life expectancy in 27 of the 29 countries overall.
The university said most life expectancy reductions across different countries could be linked to official COVID-19 deaths. There have been nearly 5 million reported deaths caused by the new coronavirus so far, a Reuters tally shows.
"The fact that our results highlight such a large impact that is directly attributable to COVID-19 shows how devastating a shock it has been for many countries," said Dr Ridhi Kashyap, co-lead author of the paper, published in the International Journal of Epidemiology.
There were greater drops in life expectancy for men than women in most countries, with the largest decline in American men, who saw life expectancy drop by 2.2 years relative to 2019.
Overall, men had more than a year shaved off in 15 countries, compared to women in 11 countries. That wiped out the progress on mortality that had been made in the previous 5.6 years.
More
S.Korea's daily COVID-19 cases top 3,000 for first time after holiday
September 25, 20218:38 AM BST
SEOUL, Sept 25 (Reuters) - South Korea's daily COVID-19 infections topped 3,000 for the first time as an outbreak fuelled by this week's three-day holiday spreads, authorities said on Saturday.
Friday's 3,273 coronavirus cases surpassed the previous high a day earlier, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) said, taking the nation's tally to 298,402 infections and 2,441 deaths.
Domestically transmitted cases accounted for 3,245 of the new infections, while 28 were imported. More than 77% of the former were in Seoul and areas neighbouring the capital, which is home to about half the population of 52 million.
"We estimate that the surge in travel during the Thanksgiving holiday, as well as the increase in person-to-person contact, could be major reasons for the sharp increase," said the agency's director, Jeong Eun-kyeong.
The current outbreak of the highly infectious Delta variant has contributed to the jump in infections, she told a briefing.
Daily infections may continue to surge over the next one or two weeks, she added, urging people to delay or cancel private gatherings over the period.
The mortality rate and the number of severe cases remain relatively low and steady at 0.82% and 339, respectively, helped by vaccinations that focused on older people at high risk of severe infection, the KDCA said.
More
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
3D nano-inks push industry boundaries
Date: September 24, 2021
Source: Michigan Technological University
Summary: A new, 3D-printable polymer nanocomposite ink developed by engineers has incredible properties like conducting electricity and high tensile strength -- and many applications in aerospace, medicine and electronics.
Mechanical engineering researchers at Michigan Technological University have created a way to make a 3D-printable nanocomposite polymeric ink that uses carbon nanotubes (CNTs) -- known for their high tensile strength and lightness. This revolutionary ink could replace epoxies -- and understanding why its properties are so fantastic is a first step toward its mass use.
3D printing, also known as additive manufacturing, is more versatile and efficient than casting. It adds a material with precision, often in complex geometries, with considerably less excess to cut away. Adding low-dimensional nanomaterials such as CNTs, graphene, metal nanoparticles and quantum dots allows 3D-printed materials to adapt to external stimuli, giving them features such as electrical and thermal conductance, magnetism and electrochemical storage.
But 3D printing using plastic, metal or something else entirely isn't new. What Tech researchers have done differently is use polymer nanocomposites (made of epoxy, carbon nanotubes and nano-clay) and a printing process that doesn't sacrifice functionality. The junction of material type and morphology -- size, shape, structure -- in polymer nanocomposite inks is the ultimate in form meeting function.
The exploration of process, morphology and properties of polymeric inks is the subject of an article recently published in the journal Additive Manufacturing by Parisa Pour Shahid Saeed Abadi, an engineer who explores the interface of materials, mechanics and medicine, and graduate student Masoud Kasraie.
---- The Many Benefits of Nanomaterial Ink
Moving beyond the science of nanocomposite ink, the material holds great promise because of its many functionalities. One advantage of 3D printing is near-complete control over the final product's shape.
The conductivity of Abadi and Kasraie's nanomaterial ink is an exceptionally handy trait that gives the printed epoxy the potential to double as electrical wiring -- whether in a circuit board, an airplane's wing or in 3D-printed actuators for guiding catheters in blood vessels. Another useful trait of the nanocomposite polymer ink is its strength.
"In comparison with steel and aluminum, we see 80% weight reduction with epoxy composite with same strength," Kasraie said.
Finally, in the medical field and aerospace and electronics industries, where defects and damage can spell big trouble, the nanocomposites serve a safety function.
"When something breaks, a tiny crack starts from a microscale defect and progresses until it breaks the entire structure," Abadi said. "Nanocomposite features make bridges in those cracks and don't let the cracks grow. This is one of the mechanisms through which carbon nanotubes increase the mechanical strength of the material."
Property-to-weight ratio, electrical conductivity, increased strength and ease of application are just a few of the many promising reasons why polymer nanocomposite inks will likely replace traditional epoxies.
During the 1970s, inflation expectations rose markedly because the Federal Reserve allowed actual inflation to ratchet up persistently in response to economic disruptions - a development that made it more difficult to stabilize both inflation and employment.
Janet
Yellen.
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