Monday, 20 September 2021

Did Asia’s Bubble Just Burst?

 Baltic Dry Index. 4275 +60  Brent Crude 74.81

Spot Gold 1748

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 20/09/21 World 229,293,200

Deaths 4,705,498

For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

Anon.

For more on missing nails scroll down to the Global Inflation section.

Did the Asian stock casino bubble just run into its pin? A very large pin called China Evergrande Group.

It’s hard to see why a White Knight might want to show up to take on the impossibility of turning around this sinking behemoth, nor why Beijing might want to rescue reckless, vanity, avarice and hubris.

While large, it’s more Refco than Lehmann Brothers.

Still, with October coming, plus winter in the northern hemisphere with already sky high prices for natural gas, generating yet more supply chain difficulties in the G-7 economies, this doesn’t seem a good time to be fully invested in stocks.

What if we’ve just started to run out of the supply of greater fool buyers?

Below, a world staring at a lot of very hard choices as we approach the Autumn equinox and Harvest Full Moon.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index drops 4% as Evergrande shares plunge nearly 17%, other property stocks fall

SINGAPORE — Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led losses among Asia-Pacific markets in Monday trade, with shares of embattled Chinese developer China Evergrande Group continuing to drop.

The Hang Seng index dropped 4.11% in Monday trade. Shares of China Evergrande Group in the city plummeted almost 17%. The Hang Seng Properties index also dropped to a 52-week low, last trading nearly 7% lower.

Shares of insurers listed in the city also plunged, with AIA dropping about 6% while Ping An Insurance fell nearly 8%.

The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia fell 2.09%, with shares of major miners declining: Rio Tinto dropped 4.55%, Fortescue Metals Group declined 5.44% while BHP slipped 4.55%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.99%.

Markets in mainland China, Japan and South Korea are closed on Monday for holidays.

Over on Wall Street, stocks have struggled in the seasonally weak month of September, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average seeing three straight weeks of losses — its first in 2021.

Investor focus for the week will likely be on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming September meeting for clues on the central bank’s tapering of its easy monetary policy.

More

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/20/asia-stocks-markets-in-china-japan-south-korea-closed-for-holidays.html

Evergrande collapse could have a ‘domino effect’ on China’s property sector, AllianceBernstein says

  • A spillover of the crisis at China Evergrande Group into other parts of the economy could become a systemic problem, warned Jenny Zeng from AllianceBernstein.
  • Zeng said a sizable number of developers in the offshore dollar market appear to be “highly distressed” and may not survive much longer if the refinancing channel remains shut for a prolonged period.
  • These developers may be small individually, but when combined, they make up about 10%-15% of the total market, she added.

----Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property developer, is crumbling under the weight of more than $300 billion of debt and warned more than once it could default. Banks have reportedly declined to extend new loans to buyers of uncompleted Evergrande residential projects, while ratings agencies have repeatedly downgraded the firm, citing its liquidity crunch.

The financial position of the other Chinese property developers also took a hit following rules outlined by the Chinese government to rein in borrowing costs of the real estate firms. The measures included placing a cap on debt in relation to a company’s cash flows, assets and capital levels.

While the struggling developers are tiny individually, compared to Evergrande, they make up about 10%-15% of the total market on aggregate, Zeng said. She warned that a collapse could result in a “systemic” spillover to other parts of the economy.

“Once it starts, it takes much more from a policy perspective to stop it than to prevent it from happening,” she added.

More

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/20/evergrande-debt-collapse-could-have-domino-effect-on-china-properties.html

‘Take those profits’: Strategist says extreme market moves are on the horizon

Published Fri, Sep 17 2021 5:57 AM EDT  Updated Fri, Sep 17 2021 12:12 PM EDT

Financial markets appear vulnerable to what could be an extreme move in either direction, according to Paul Gambles, co-founder of investment advisory firm MBMG Group.

As a result, Gambles said investors should consider sitting on the sidelines and build up their cash positions significantly.

His comments come as market participants remain cautious given a flurry of risks on the horizon. These include fears of rising inflation, persistent concerns about the economic outlook amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, supply shortages and valuation concerns.

Some investors are also wary of the possible implications of China’s indebted property firm Evergrande, which is on the brink of default.

“Our advice is just be a little bit cautious. We think that the market is very finely poised waiting for what potentially could be a very, very big move,” Gambles told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.

“We’ve got no idea which direction that could be; I realize that doesn’t sound helpful, but frankly there are just so many unanswered questions out there right now,” he said. “Until we start to get answers to those, our advice is actually unless you can really afford to take what could be a pretty big hit, and possibly even a permanent hit, then it is better to just sit on the sidelines.”

Gambles said MBMG Group, which says it has more than $1.5 billion in assets under advice, has looked to raise cash levels “quite dramatically” of late, warning market risk had “suddenly gone up and off the scale” compared with just one month ago.

Gold and gold miners were “one of the best ways to hedge risk” for the moment, he added, suggesting there was also still some value in Treasurys.

More

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/build-cash-positions-ahead-of-extreme-market-moves-strategist-says.html

Next, Iran becomes a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Despite Brexit and the fall of US run Afghanistan, the world goes on. Who knew?

Iran blasts 'unilateralism' as it joins group headed by China, Russia

Sept. 17, 2021 / 1:50 PM

Sept. 17 (UPI) -- Iran became a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Friday as its new President Ebrahim Raisi blasted the United States and "unilateralism."

Iran, which has faced heavy sanctions by the United States under former President Donald Trump, which have mostly been kept in place by President Joe Biden, accepted membership in the group, that includes China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.

China and Russia are part of the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action meant to limit Iran's nuclear capabilities but was abandoned by the Trump administration in favor of sanctions to get Iran to return to the bargaining table, which never happened.

Iran and the United States had talked about returning to the deal but nothing has come of those discussions.

"The world has entered a new era," Raisi said, according to Aljazeera. "Hegemony and unilateralism are failing. The international balance is moving toward multilateralism and redistribution of power to the benefit of independent countries."

Raisi said, according to PressTV, Iran wants to be an "active participant" in international organizations "based on justice, cooperation, mutual respect and the need to play a constructive role in facing international and regional challenges."

---- Shanghai Cooperation Organization was created in 2001 as a political, economic and security alliance led by China and Russia. Iran had observatory status for 15 years until being granted full status on Friday.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2021/09/17/Tajikistan-Iran-Shanghai-Cooperation-Organization-Russia-China-United-States/6201631899253/

“How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises.

 

Global Inflation Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Today, for the want of a nail.

Rising gas prices endanger food supplies

Saturday 18 September 2021 2:20 pm

Food production could be hit by major disruption after rocketing energy prices have threatened to create a shortage of carbon dioxide needed for farming.

Two fertiliser plants in the country have been temporarily shut down as gas prices have climbed.

Firms could run out of carbon dioxide in less than two weeks, with some being forced to stop taking animals and close production lines, the British Meat Processors Association (BMPA).

Business secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng said he would meet with energy supplier bosses on Saturday over concerns about the rise in prices

“Britain has a diverse range of gas supply sources, with sufficient capacity to more than meet demand. We do not expect supply emergencies this winter,” the minister said.

Businesses said the shutdowns were the last thing they needed, requiring carbon dioxide to stun animals, preserve packaged meat and produce fizzy drinks. 

Nick Allen, chief executive of the BMPA, said: “We’ve had zero warning of the planned closure of the fertiliser plants and, as a result, it’s plunged the industry into chaos. 

“The British food supply chain is at the mercy of a small number of major fertiliser producers (four or five companies) spread across northern Europe. We rely on a by-product from their production process to keep Britain’s food chain moving.”

Zoe Davies, chief executive of the National Pig Association, said for many pig farmers this would be “the final straw.”

She added: “This is the absolute last thing pig farmers need right now. They are already having to accommodate and feed more pigs on farms than they have the space for due to reduced throughput of abattoirs caused by the existing labour shortages.”

https://www.cityam.com/rising-gas-prices-food-supplies-endanger/

Why natural gas prices have surged to some of their highest levels in years

CBC News ·

Natural gas prices have climbed to some of their highest levels in years, with the increases expected to ripple into people's gas bills as winter fast approaches.

A marriage of factors in North America and Europe — from summer storms to an overseas supply crunch — have contributed to sharp rise in the price of the fossil fuel.

Martin King, senior analyst at RBN Energy, said the Alberta spot price for natural gas was around $4.80 a gigajoule on Thursday morning. With the exception of a February price spike amid a nasty North American cold snap, it's some of the highest prices he's seen in years.

"It's pretty astounding," King said. 

"We're seeing seven-year highs for natural gas both in the U.S. and Canada and, on the international front, we're seeing pretty much close to all-time highs in many markets worldwide."

While those prices will help natural gas producers, it'll have consumers facing higher gas bills at a time when they're already paying more for housing, transportation and food

"We'll see how the spring and summer next year shape up," King said. "But in the very short term, going into the winter, we're all going to be facing higher natural gas bills."

----In the U.S. futures market, the natural gas contract for October climbed to over $5 US per one million British thermal units — a level not seen since February, 2014. 

Reuters reported Thursday that U.S. natural gas futures slipped as storage levels improved, but one analyst told the news service it wasn't "enough to put a ceiling on the recent rise in prices."

Meanwhile, the price of natural gas in Europe has risen fivefold since last year, pushing power prices across the continent to their highest in over a decade.

In North America, views range on how high prices might still climb.

King said it seems like the price could potentially go a "little bit higher" into October, adding much depends on how cold things get at the start of the winter heating season. 

More

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/natural-gas-prices-surge-1.6175531

UK set for most widespread pay rises in over a decade - CBI

September 20, 2021

No comments:

Post a Comment