Baltic Dry Index. 3822 -122 Brent Crude 71.70
Spot Gold 1798
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 08/09/21 World 222,777,304
Deaths 4,600,073
“Let China Sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world”
Napoleon.
In the stock casinos it’s still business as usual, but is it?
China’s changing and fast. From crushing dissent in Hong Kong and reneging on its HK treaty obligations, to hammering the billionaires in mainland China, to getting more aggressive on Taiwan, tomorrow doesn’t look much like today, which was like yesterday.
Tomorrow is starting to look like a repeat of what followed America’s defeat in 1975 at Saigon. Did Kabul just wake up China?
Toss in inflation, a divided America, a leaderless shaken NATO, and stock markets running on trillion upon trillions of Magic Money Tree fiat money with no end in sight, and it’s starting to look like we may have reached another global inflection point.
Always a cautious commodity trader, this looks like a time to be long commodities and out of stocks and bonds.
Something is coming and it might just be a shock from China.
Asia-Pacific stocks mixed; Japan revises second-quarter GDP upward
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific were mixed in Wednesday morning trade, as data showed Japan’s economy grew faster than previous estimates.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 0.72%. Investors monitored shares of China Evergrande Group, which slipped 0.56% in Wednesday morning trade — briefly dropping below its IPO price.
The embattled property developer’s stock has dropped more than 8% so far this week, extending declines since last week after it warned that it could default.
Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday downgrading its rating, citing “heightened liquidity and default risks.” Ratings agency Fitch also followed with a downgrade on Evergrande on Wednesday morning.
Mainland Chinese stocks were higher, with the Shanghai composite rising 0.19% and the Shenzhen component advancing 0.285%.
Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi shed 0.25% while the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia declined 0.27%.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.48% while the Topix index gained 0.51%.
Japan’s economy saw 1.9% annualized growth, higher than the initial estimate for a 1.3% rise, revised government data showed Wednesday.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 0.12% higher.
Overnight stateside, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 269.09 points to 35,100 while the S&P 500 shed 0.34% to 4,520.03. The Nasdaq Composite advanced fractionally to 15,374.33.
The mixed moves stateside came as concerns over the potential economic hit of the delta variant weighed on investor sentiment, with Goldman Sachs downgrading its U.S. economic growth outlook over the weekend.
Bitcoin’s price fell following a recent surge above $52,000. It was last trading at $47,046.28 as of 9:53 p.m. ET Tuesday, according to data from Coin Metrics. The volatile moves in the cryptocurrency’s price came as El Salvador on Tuesday officially adopted bitcoin as legal tender, becoming the first country to do so.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/08/asia-markets-japan-second-quarter-gdp-covid-currencies-oil.html
In China news, is China going Maoist? What does it mean for China and the rest of the world if it is?
Is President Xi about to capitalise on the fiasco of Biden’s Afghan defeat?
China’s changing, but we don’t yet know much about President Xi’s plans.
China chases ‘rejuvenation’ with control of tycoons, society
BEIJING (AP) — An avalanche of changes launched by China’s ruling Communist Party has jolted everyone from tech billionaires to school kids. Behind them: President Xi Jinping’s vision of making a more powerful, prosperous country by reviving revolutionary ideals, with more economic equality and tighter party control over society and entrepreneurs.
Since taking power in 2012, Xi has called for the party to return to its “original mission” as China’s economic, social and cultural leader and carry out the “ rejuvenation of the great Chinese nation.”
The party has spent the decade since then silencing dissent and tightening political control. Now, after 40 years of growth that transformed China into the world’s factory but left a gulf between a wealthy elite and the poor majority, the party is promising to spread prosperity more evenly and is pressing private companies to pay for social welfare and back Beijing’s ambition to become a global technology competitor.
To support its plans, Xi’s government is trying to create what it deems a more wholesome society by reducing children’s access to online games and banning “sissy men” who are deemed insufficiently masculine from TV.
Chinese leaders want to “direct the constructive energies of all people in one laser-focused direction selected by the party,” Andrew Nathan, a Chinese politics specialist at Columbia University, said in an email.
Beijing has launched anti-monopoly and data security crackdowns to tighten its control over internet giants, including e-commerce platform Alibaba Group and games and social media operator Tencent Holdings Ltd., that looked too big and potentially independent.
In response, their billionaire founders have scrambled to show loyalty by promising to share their wealth under Xi’s vaguely defined “common prosperity” initiative to narrow the income gap in a country with more billionaires than the United States.
Xi has yet to give details, but in a society where every political term is scrutinized for significance, the name revives a 1950s propaganda slogan under Mao Zedong, the founder of the communist government.
Xi is reviving the “utopian ideal” of early communist leaders, said Willy Lam of the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “But of course, huge question marks have arisen, because this will hurt the most creative and lucrative parts of the economy.”
Alibaba, Tencent and others have pledged tens of billions of dollars for job creation and social welfare initiatives. They say they will invest in developing processor chips and other technologies cited by Beijing as priorities.
The party’s anti-monopoly enforcement and crackdown on how companies handle information about customers are similar to Western regulation. But the abrupt, heavy-handed way changes have been imposed is prompting warnings that Beijing is threatening innovation and economic growth, which already is declining. Jittery foreign investors have knocked more than $300 billion off Tencent’s stock market value and billions more off other companies.
“I expect that over the next year or two we are likely to see a very rocky relationship develop between the political elite and the business elite,” Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Business, said in a report.
In yet more hurricane Ida aftermath, New Jersey’s largest dairy farm took a direct hit.
Finally, more devastation news from the remnants of Hurricane Ida.
Sep. 7, 2021
After
severe weather associated with the remnants of Hurricane Ida sweeping through
the Northeast, a tornado touched down in Mullica Hills, New Jersey, devastating
the state's largest dairy farm, Wellacrest Farms.
The Eachus family owns and operates Wellacrest
Farms, home to 1,400 Holsteins cows. The family says they are still trying to
process what quickly unfolded and the damage left behind.
"You see this out West. You never think it's
going to be in your backyard," says owner Marianne Eachus. "The
devastation is just ... everything is gone."
The
National Weather Service has confirmed five tornadoes touched down in New
Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania Wednesday evening during the fierce
thunderstorms that were triggered by the leftovers of Hurricane Ida.
Tornado Ripped Across Farm
The F4 tornado that ripped through Mullica Hills,
devastated Wellacrest Farms, toppling two 80' silos, damaging grain bins and
flattening one of the farm's free stall barns. The family reports that all but
one barn was damaged from the storm.
"We can milk by using generators for
power," Karlie Eachus says. "We were able to fix all the milking
parlor mechanical issues and bulk tank issues on Wednesday evening with the
help of a specialist."
Thankfully no people were hurt and while the farm is
still assessing the damage and going through the rubble, at the current time
they report that they have lost only three cows. However, they believe as many
as 300 cows were trapped in the debris, and the family fears the number
deceased will increase as they are finding more severely injured cattle.
Picking
Up the Pieces
Now less than 48 hours later, they are making
makeshift pens, because most of the housing has been destroyed, as well as a
lot of farm equipment. Also, two of the farm's silos filled with feed and grain
have been knocked down on top of their tractors and trailers.
The farm was planning on chopping corn silage the
day after the tornado hit, but their chopper got buried underneath the rubble.
"We were able to thankfully dig it out,"
says owner Eric Eachus. "Our Claas representative is at the farm today to
get it running today and if not, they'll supply us with a backup one, so we can
somehow put up feed for the year ahead."
----Eric
says they plan to rebuild but also knows all too well the cost and time will
add up quickly.
"A sheet of plywood is $120," Eric states.
"So, I can't even fathom what the total cost to rebuild will be. But we
are dedicated to continuing on."
As the family rebuilds, the local New Jersey
community has come out to help, including bringing excavators to help lift the
flattened barn roof, so cows could be freed. A GoFundMe campaign has been
established to help in the recovery.
https://www.agrimarketing.com/s/137726
Before I left China, I was educated that China was the richest, happiest country in the world. So when I arrived Australia, I thought, 'Oh my God, everything is different from what I was told.' Since then, I started to think differently.
Jack
Ma.
Global Inflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Average UK house prices reached a record high in August, says Halifax
7 September, 2021
Aberage UK house prices last month increased to a record high, even with the full stamp duty holiday no longer in place to entice buyers.
Lender Halifax said average UK house prices in August reached £262,954, up 0.7% from the prior month, and higher than the £245,602 recorded in the same month in 2020. The previous high was £261,642 in May.
Russell Galley, managing director of Halifax, said: “August’s rise was relatively modest and the annual rate of house price inflation continued to slow, hitting a five-month low of 7.1% (versus 7.6% in July). However, compared to June 2020, when the housing market began to reopen from the first lockdown, prices remain more than £23,600 higher (or +9.9%).”
The latest increase came even as incentives for buyers got less generous. The residential market was boosted last year by the government allowing the first £500,000 spent on a property to be tax free.
The tax break was scaled back from July 2021, and the threshold for the stamp duty holiday is £250,000 until September 30.
Halifax’s Galley said: “We believe structural factors have driven record levels of buyer activity – such as the demand for more space amid greater home working. These trends look set to persist and the price gains made since the start of the pandemic are unlikely to be reversed once the remaining tax break comes to an end later this month.”
He also pointed out the macroeconomic environment is becoming increasingly positive, “with job vacancies at a record high and consumer confidence returning to pre-pandemic levels”.
More
UK fires up coal power plant as gas prices soar
Published 7 September, 2021
The UK has fired up an old coal power plant to meet its electricity needs.
Warm, still, autumn weather has meant wind farms have not generated as much power as normal, while soaring prices have made it too costly to rely on gas.
As a result, National Grid ESO - which is responsible for balancing the UK's electricity supply - confirmed coal was providing 3% of national power.
It said it asked EDF to fire up West Burton A, which had been on standby.
A National Grid ESO spokesman said there had been a three-day coal-free run in mid-August.
However, the country had relied on some coal power every day since then.
Last year, coal contributed 1.6% of the country's electricity mix. That was down from 25% five years ago.
Both the government and National Grid ESO have committed to phasing out coal power completely by 2024 to cut carbon emissions. However, coal is currently still used when it is better value than gas.
Record prices
And with gas prices hitting record highs this summer, more coal has been burnt to meet demand.
Across Europe, shortages and increased demand from Asia have seen the cost of gas increase to the highest level on record, according to Reuters.
A cold start to the year meant countries across the continent dipped into their gas reserves, which would normally be replenished in the summer months when demand tends to be weaker.
However, a number of unexpected disruptions to supply, coupled with an economic rebound as countries reopen from Covid-19 lockdowns, have created a shortage of gas.
More
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58469238
Electricity and gas prices in UK and Europe hit records
Squeeze compounded by lower-than-expected power generation from wind
6 September, 2021
Consumers in the UK and continental Europe are facing a growing price crunch for energy as wholesale electricity costs surpassed their highest ever level on Monday, boosted by low wind generation and the rally in natural gas to record heights.
Benchmark wholesale electricity prices in Germany for delivery next year reached more than €90 per megawatt hour, or roughly double the level at which they started the year, surpassing the previous record hit in summer 2008 when oil prices were approaching $150 a barrel.
Gas prices in the UK and continental Europe, which have hit a series of record highs in recent weeks, also rose with day-ahead prices at the UK National Balancing Point, a virtual trading venue for natural gas, reaching £1.31 per therm, more than four times higher than this time last year.
Carlos Torres-Diaz, head of power and gas markets at consultancy Rystad Energy, said lower gas supplies from Russia this year had led to lower inventories in storage across Europe, while greater competition with Asia for liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments had also forced prices higher.
Gas levels in European storage are “way below the five-year average”, he said, warning of tight supplies this winter. These have in turn pushed up the price of electricity, as gas is used in power generation as well as for heating and industrial uses.
More
https://www.ft.com/content/bf84f4a9-4720-4655-801f-a40d57b634e6
BoE's Saunders says interest rates may rise next year
September 7, 2021 9:34 AM By Andy Bruce
LONDON (Reuters) - The Bank of England may need to raise interest rates next year if growth continues and inflation becomes stickier, Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders said on Tuesday.
Saunders, who last month voted for an early stop to the BoE’s 895 billion pound ($1.24 trillion) bond-buying stimulus plan, repeated his view that continued purchases risked increasing medium-term inflation expectations.
“As to when I think interest rates might rise, that would depend on the economic outlook,” Saunders told an online event hosted by accountancy software company Intuit.
“If the economy continues to recover, and inflation shows signs of being more persistent, then it might be right to think of interest rates going up in the next year or so. But that is not a promise and depends on economic conditions,” he said.
Saunders said any rise in rates from their record-low level of 0.1% should be relatively limited.
Financial markets currently price in a 15 basis point rise in rates by June 2022, which would return the BoE’s main interest rate to 0.25%.
Last month the BoE said it could see a modest reduction ahead in the huge support it has provided to Britain’s economy during the COVID-19 pandemic, and set out how it could gradually unwind its quantitative easing programme after it has raised interest rates.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
WHO says Covid will mutate like the flu and is likely here to stay
Covid-19 is likely “here to stay with us” as the virus continues to mutate in unvaccinated countries across the world and previous hopes of eradicating it diminish, global health officials said Tuesday.
“I think this virus is here to stay with us and it will evolve like influenza pandemic viruses, it will evolve to become one of the other viruses that affects us,” Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization’s Health Emergencies Program, said at a press briefing.
Officials at the global health agency have previously said vaccines do not guarantee the world would eradicate Covid-19 like it has other viruses. Several leading health experts, including White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci and Stephane Bancel, CEO of Covid vaccine maker Moderna, have warned that the world will have to live with Covid forever, much like influenza.
“People have said we’re going to eliminate or eradicate the virus,” Ryan said. “No we’re not, very, very unlikely.”
If the world had taken early steps to stop the spread of the virus, the situation today could have been very different, WHO officials said.
“We had a chance in the beginning of this pandemic,” Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s technical lead on Covid-19, said Tuesday. “This pandemic did not need to be this bad.”
Third person dies in Japan after taking contaminated Moderna coronavirus vaccine
A 49-year-old man died the day after taking his second shot of the vaccine, though authorities said a causal link has not been identified
Tue 7 Sep 2021 05.20 BST
A third man has died in Japan after receiving an injection from one of three batches of Moderna vaccines since identified as contaminated, though authorities say no causal link has yet been found.
The 49-year-old man had his second shot on 11 August and died the following day. His only known health issue was an allergy to buckwheat, the health ministry said on Monday. As with the previous two deaths, the ministry said it had yet to establish if the latest fatality was linked to the vaccine.
The shot came from the same batches that were found to have fragments of stainless steel in them, leading to a recall of 1.63m doses of the Moderna vaccine on 26 August. The three batches were manufactured in Spain under contract by Moderna.
The company has yet to comment on the most recent fatality, but last week issued a joint statement with local distributor Takeda Pharmaceutical, saying: “The rare presence of stainless steel particles in the Moderna Covid-19 vaccine does not pose an undue risk to patient safety and it does not adversely affect the benefit/risk profile of the product.”
Early last month, two men in their 30s with no underlying health conditions died within days of getting their second dose of the Moderna vaccine.
More
Does this enzyme raise the chance of COVID-related death?
Researchers discovered an enzyme that is genetically related to a key enzyme in snake venom and was found in COVID-19 fatalities in doses 20 times the safe amount.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFF SEPTEMBER 4, 2021 19:37
A study from the University of Arizona discovered that an enzyme with a key role in severe inflammation may be a vital mechanism in COVID-19 severity and could provide a new target for medicine development.
The researchers collaborated with Stony Brook University and Wake Forest School of Medicine to analyze blood samples from two COVID-19 patients and discovered that the circulation of the sPLA2-11A enzyme may be an important method in predicting which patients would die of COVID-19.
At high levels, the enzyme has the ability to "shred" the membranes of vital organs.
"It's a bell-shaped curve of disease resistance versus host tolerance," said Floyd (ski) Chilton, senior author on the paper and director of the UArizona Precision Nutrition and Wellness Initiative at the university. "In other words, this enzyme is trying to kill the virus, but at a certain point it is released in such high amounts that things head in a really bad direction, destroying the patient's cell membranes and thereby contributing to multiple organ failure and death."
---- "In this study, we were able to identify patterns of metabolites that were present in individuals who succumbed to the disease," said Justin Snider, an assistant research professor at the University of Arizona and lead study author. "The metabolites that surfaced revealed cell energy dysfunction and high levels of the sPLA2-11A enzyme. The former was expected but not the latter."
The analysis showed that most healthy people have approximately half a nanogram of the enzyme per milliliter, 63% of people who had severe COVID-19 and died had more than 10 nanograms per milliliter.
More
https://www.jpost.com/science/does-this-enzyme-raise-the-chance-of-covid-related-death-678
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, something a little different. The unintended misfortune when big data goes wrong.
So you really want big brother in charge?
US-built databases a potential tool of Taliban repression
BOSTON (AP) — Over two decades, the United States and its allies spent hundreds of millions of dollars building databases for the Afghan people. The nobly stated goal: Promote law and order and government accountability and modernize a war-ravaged land.
But in the Taliban’s lightning seizure of power, most of that digital apparatus — including biometrics for verifying identities — apparently fell into Taliban hands. Built with few data-protection safeguards, it risks becoming the high-tech jackboots of a surveillance state. As the Taliban get their governing feet, there are worries it will be used for social control and to punish perceived foes.
Putting such data to work constructively — boosting education, empowering women, battling corruption — requires democratic stability, and these systems were not architected for the prospect of defeat.
“It is a terrible irony,” said Frank Pasquale, Brooklyn Law School scholar of surveillance technologies. “It’s a real object lesson in ‘The road to hell is paved with good intentions.’”
Since Kabul fell Aug. 15, indications have emerged that government data may have been used in Taliban efforts to identify and intimidate Afghans who worked with the U.S. forces.
People are getting ominous and threatening phone calls, texts and WhatsApp messages, said Neesha Suarez, constituent services director for Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., an Iraq War veteran whose office is trying to help stranded Afghans who worked with the U.S. find a way out.
A 27-year-old U.S. contractor in Kabul told The Associated Press he and co-workers who developed a U.S.-funded database used to manage army and police payrolls got phone calls summoning them to the Defense Ministry. He is in hiding, changing his location daily, he said, asking not to be identified for his safety.
In victory, the Taliban’s leaders say they are not interested in retribution. Restoring international aid and getting foreign-held assets unfrozen are a priority. There are few signs of the draconian restrictions – especially on women – they imposed when they ruled from 1996 to 2001. There are also no indications that Afghans who worked with Americans have been systematically persecuted.
Ali Karimi, a University of Pennsylvania scholar, is among Afghans unready to trust the Taliban. He worries the databases will give rigid fundamentalist theocrats, known during their insurgency for ruthlessly killing enemy collaborators, “the same capability as an average U.S. government agency when it comes to surveillance and interception.”
More
https://apnews.com/article/technology-business-taliban-c007f85fb1b573c43a4391b947a5dcd4
Some foreigners with full bellies and nothing better to do engage in finger-pointing at us. First, China does not export revolution; second, it does not export famine and poverty; and third, it does not mess around with you. So what else is there to say?
Xi
Jinping.
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