Vaccine Hope, Brexit Stalemate. Fed Week.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1211 +50 Brent Crude 50.29

Spot Gold 1835

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 14/12/20 World 72,697,970

Deaths 1,618,938

The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.

H. L. Mencken

In the stock casinos, vaccine hope, Brexit uncertainty, a dodgy Fed meeting, and a possible US stimulus package “light.” One week to go before Tesla joins the S&P 500. 

More of the usual stocks disconnect from the economic reality of the real economy.

Stocks look for vaccine-led recovery, U.S. stimulus

December 14, 2020 12:40 AM  By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Stocks started a busy week with guarded gains as investors gauged the chance of added U.S. fiscal and monetary stimulus, while the British pound rose in relief as a last-gasp extension to Brexit talks dodged a hard divorce.

Progress on coronavirus vaccines cheered risk sentiment, with the first shipments speeding across the United States as part of an historic mission to inoculate more than 100 million people by the end of March.

“The vaccine has and will likely continue to provide a tailwind to the market that is allowing investors to look beyond record case levels, hospitalizations, and deaths,” said analysts at JPMorgan in a note.

E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 responded by rising 0.5%, while March Treasury bond futures slipped 4 ticks. EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.6% and FTSE futures 0.3%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1%, having hit a string of record highs last week.

Japan’s Nikkei added 0.6% as a survey showed the mood among hard-hit Japanese businesses had improved in the December quarter.

Sterling firmed on both the euro and the dollar after Britain and the European Union agreed to continue talks on post-Brexit trade beyond Sunday’s deadline.

Against the dollar, the pound rose 0.7% to $1.3321 and away from Friday’s close of $1.3222. The euro slipped 0.5% to 91.09 pence, off a three-month top of 92.29.

“Our base case remains that a ‘thin’ free trade agreement will be reached before the end of the year,” analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note.

“That said, there is plenty of uncertainty and our economists, given the lack of progress in recent weeks, now see rising risks of a no-deal outcome.”

---- An added hurdle for the dollar will be the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Dec. 15-16. The market is assuming the central bank will merely refine its forward guidance on policy rather than buying more bonds or “twisting” its portfolio to add more longer-dated debt.

“The risk is then if the Fed does unveil a surprise twist at this meeting, then Treasuries could rally and the USD could fall,” said Tapas Strickland, a director of economics at NAB.

An extra wrinkle is the chance of a U.S. deal on fiscal stimulus after a top Democrat hinted they might compromise to get an agreement past Republican objections.

Reuters reported the $908 billion relief plan will be split in two in an effort to win approval and could be introduced as early as Monday.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/stocks-look-for-vaccine-led-recovery-u-s-stimulus-idUKKBN28O01H

Dubai Business Conditions Worsen as Pandemic Weighs on Demand

By Abeer Abu Omar

December 14, 2020, 4:40 AM GMT

Business activity in Dubai dropped for a second month in November as the coronavirus pandemic continued to weigh on demand.

The non-oil private sector economy in the Middle East’s business hub deteriorated last month to the lowest since May, according to IHS Markit. Its Purchasing Managers’ Index dipped to 49 from 49.9 in October, falling further below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction.

Employment figures continued to stabilize after having dipped to the lowest on record earlier this year and the pace of job losses was the mildest seen in nine months, though a possible lapse in demand could lead to another setback for employment in the short-term, the report said.

“A renewed fall in output and slower sales growth were evident across the Dubai non-oil private sector in November, highlighting the possibility of a ‘double dip’ economic downturn from the pandemic,” said David Owen, an economist at IHS Markit.

More from Dubai’s PMI report:

• Growth in new work was weakest in five months, leading to a reduction in output
• Sentiment for next year’s activity dropped to a new record-low in November amid heightened concerns over a slowing economic recovery; business expectations were negative for the first time in the series’ history
• Companies lowered output for the first time in six months “at a solid pace” noting the impact of Covid-19, while several reported a slower recovery since lockdown measures were lifted
• Demand weakness was prominent in the travel and tourism sector -- construction firms also struggling

Read: UAE Business Conditions Worsen for Second Straight Month

Still, “news about effective vaccines could restore long-term optimism,” according to Owen, “as firms are likely to place greater hopes of a strong recovery in 2021.” Last week, the UAE registered China’s state-backed coronavirus vaccine and said it protected 86% of people against Covid-19 in trials.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-14/dubai-business-conditions-worsen-as-pandemic-weigh-on-demand?srnd=premium-europe

Japan's PM may curb tourism campaign to fight virus as approval rating drops

December 14, 2020  1:09 AM  By Ju-min Park

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will chair a coronavirus meeting on Monday and could further restrict a travel subsidy programme in an effort to contain mounting infections, as his approval rating plummets over the handling of the pandemic.

Suga may temporarily halt the travel campaign to the capital Tokyo and the city of Nagoya, the large industrial hub of Aichi prefecture, the prime minister’s office said.

The “Go To Travel” campaign, aimed at boosting regional economies and helping hotels and airlines, has been effective to some extent in stimulating demand for tourism, government spokesman Katsunobu Kato told a news conference.

But while the government aims to promote economic activity, it also wants to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, Kato added. “That balance depends on the situation in each region,” he said, without elaborating further.

Despite concerns by experts that a travel campaign may in fact help spread the virus, Suga has insisted an immediate halt to the entire travel campaign is not under consideration.

Local media on Sunday flagged cuts to the travel campaign, while Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura on Saturday said he had asked the government to extend the suspension of the tourism programme imposed on the Osaka region.

While Japan has not seen the kind of massive outbreaks that have hit the United States and parts of Europe, infections have worsened as winter has set in, particularly in regions such as the northern island of Hokkaido and the city of Osaka.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-japan/japans-pm-may-curb-tourism-campaign-to-fight-virus-as-approval-rating-drops-idUKKBN28O02W?il=0

In other bad Japan news,  how unlucky can Japan get?

Bird flu spreads to 10th Japanese prefecture

December 14, 2020 4:14 AM By Aaron Sheldrick, Yuka Obayashi

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan’s worst bird flu outbreak on record spread to new farms and now affects more than 20% of the country’s 47 prefectures, with officials ordering cullings after more poultry deaths.

About 11,000 birds will be slaughtered and buried after avian influenza was discovered at an egg farm in Higashiomi city in Shiga prefecture in southwestern Japan, the agriculture ministry said over the weekend.

Another outbreak started in Kagawa prefecture, where the outbreak emerged last month, the ministry said on Monday.

The outbreak in Japan and neighbouring South Korea is one of two separate highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) epidemics hitting poultry around the world, according the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Both the strain circulating in Asia and the one in Europe originated in wild birds, it said.

“The virus found in Japan is genetically very close to the recent Korean viruses and thus related to viruses in Europe from early 2020, not those currently circulating in Europe,” Madhur Dhingra, a senior animal health officer at the FAO, told Reuters by email.

“This means that we currently have two distinct H5N8 HPAI epidemics in eastern Asia and Europe,” she said.

The FAO has issued an alert to African health authorities for heightened surveillance of farms to avoid the spread of the more recent European strain there.

In Japan, 10 of the country’s 47 prefectures have been affected in the outbreak, with around 3 million birds culled to date, a record number.

All farms in Japan were earlier ordered to disinfect facilities and check hygiene regimes, and ensure that nets to keep out wild birds are installed properly, agriculture ministry officials told Reuters this week.

Japan has suspended poultry imports from seven countries, including Germany.

Japan has an egg-laying flock of about 185 million hens and a broiler population of 138 million head, according to the ministry of agriculture.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-birdflu-japan/bird-flu-spreads-to-10th-japanese-prefecture-idUKKBN28O0AL?il=0

Finally, the US east coast prepares for a winter storm this week. This might be the big story for the end of the week.

Major snow and ice storm brewing for the East

By Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Dec. 13, 2020 11:21 PM

As the energy from a powerful storm system slamming the West Coast slides east over the upcoming week, it will become responsible for the next major winter storm for the United States. This time, it looks poised to strike much of the East Coast, bringing a large swath of drenching rain, deep snow and perhaps even a thick glaze of ice for some.

The finer details are still in limbo, but forecasters are growing increasingly confident that a large and highly impactful winter storm will impact the East during the middle part of the upcoming week.

A quick-hitting storm system racing off of the East Coast Monday will help to set the stage initially, depositing cold air across much of the East for the early part of the week.

"As upper-level energy moves from the Rockies into the East Monday and Tuesday, an area of low pressure will begin to take shape across the southern Plains and Southeast," explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys.

"This storm system will then turn northeastward and track somewhere near the East Coast, tapping into the cold air that will be available to create a winter wonderland for some."

Forecasters say confidence in the exact track of the storm system is still low, and that this will have a large impact on who exactly sees the worst conditions.

More

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/major-snow-and-ice-storm-brewing-for-the-east/865343

Winter Watch.

From around mid-October, the northern hemisphere snow cover usually rapidly expands, while the Arctic ice gradually expands back towards its winter maximum.

Over simplified, a rapid expansion of both, especially if early, can be a sign of a harsher than normal arriving northern hemisphere winter. Perhaps more so in 2020-2021 as we’re in the low of the ending sunspot cycle, which possibly also influenced this year’s record Atlantic hurricane season.

Update: we seem to have started new sunspot cycle 25 this month, though it’s unlikely to affect 2020-2021s coming winter.

Northern Eur-Asia turned snowy fast in mid-October.  The Arctic sea ice expansion was slow, and from a very low level at the end of September, but with the vastly expanded snow cover, sea ice formation sped up.

The Laptev Sea ice was back to normal at the end of November.  The failure of the Kara Sea ice to return to normal, leads me to bet on a warmer western European winter ahead.

Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

A newspaper is a device for making the ignorant more ignorant and the crazy crazier.

H. L. Mencken

Covid-19 Corner                       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

U.S. Set for Vaccine Debut; N.Z. Travel Bubble: Virus Update

Bloomberg News

December 13, 2020, 10:13 PM GMT Updated on December 14, 2020, 3:54 AM GMT

Shots against Covid-19 are set to begin in the U.S. as deaths approach the 300,000 mark. The head of the government’s vaccine drive said as much as 80% of the population could be inoculated by summer.

A U.S. decision on Moderna Inc.’s vaccine could come by the end of the week. A rival shot from China’s Sinopharm faced contrasting developments, as Peru suspended trials after an “adverse event” while Bahrain became one of the first nations to approve the vaccine for widespread use.

South Korea reported a drop in new cases after posting a record of more than 1,000 infections on Sunday. New Zealand’s prime minister said a travel bubble with Australia could begin in the first quarter. New York City will halt indoor dining at restaurants and bars on Monday.

Key Developments:

• Global Tracker: Cases exceed 72.2 million; deaths surpass 1.6 million
• Trump, top officials to be offered Covid vaccine within days
• Astra plots post-Covid future with $39 billion Alexion deal
• U.S. lawmakers to unveil $908 billion pandemic relief plan
• Pandemic woes bring U.S.-style gig economy to South Korea

Trump: Staff Should Get Vaccine ‘Somewhat Later’ (11:46 a.m. HK)

U.S. President Donald Trump said those working in the White House “should receive the vaccine somewhat later in the program, unless specifically necessary,” following news that he and other top U.S. officials will be offered the vaccine within days.

Trump said he’s “not scheduled to take the vaccine, but look forward to doing so at the appropriate time.” The vaccinations will be offered to critical personnel in all three branches of government deemed essential and could start as soon as Monday.

More

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-13/n-y-deaths-rise-with-u-s-vaccine-debut-imminent-virus-update?srnd=coronavirus

Asia Today: Japan, S. Korea set new daily records, mull step

December 13, 2020

TOKYO (AP) — Japan’s daily coronavirus cases have exceeded 3,000 for the first time while the government delays stricter measures for fear of hurting the economy ahead of the holiday season.

The 3,030 new cases, including 621 in Tokyo, took Japan’s national tally to 177,287 with 2,562 deaths, the Health Ministry said Sunday.

Experts say serious cases are on the rise around the country, putting burden on hospitals and affecting the daily medical treatment for other patients. They urged authorities to take measures such as suspending out-of-town trips and requesting stores to close early.

Recent media surveys show support ratings for the government of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga have dropped about 20 points from around 70% during his first three months in office amid public discontent over his coronavirus handling.

Japan issued a non-binding state of emergency in the spring and has survived earlier infection peaks without a lockdown. Experts say the ongoing resurgence in the dry and cold season would be a bigger challenge.

In other developments in the Asia-Pacific region:

— South Korea has set another record for its daily coronavirus tally with 1,030, as authorities struggle to suppress the viral spread. The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency said Sunday the additional cases including two deaths raised the national caseload to 42,766 with 580 fatalities. About 80% of the new cases were found in the densely populated Seoul area, where authorities have shut nightclubs and other high-risk venues, banned late-night dining and taken other steps to slow the spread. But such measures have shown little effect. Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun said Saturday his government may have to enforce its highest-level social distancing rules if the virus doesn’t slow down. Such restrictions would ban a gathering of more than 10 people, shut down schools, theaters and department stores and suspend professional sports leagues.

— Chinese authorities have locked down an area of about 200,000 people after a handful of COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the northeastern province of Heilongjiang. Checkpoints were set up in Dongning, which is on the border near the Russian city of Vladivostok, and people were told not to leave unless necessary. Bus service has been suspended, schools closed and production halted at factories not making daily necessities. Restaurants were told to stop dine-in service and residential communities to control entry. Six cases have been confirmed since Thursday in Heilongjiang province, including two in Dongning. China has moved swiftly to stamp out any reappearance of the virus. The National Health Commission reported 24 cases nationwide in the previous day. Four were in Heilongjiang and another in Sichuan province in the southwest. The other 19 were imported from outside China.

https://apnews.com/article/yoshihide-suga-coronavirus-pandemic-asia-asia-pacific-japan-a7feaff596efca32dc63e145092bcff4

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

Covid19info.live 

https://wuflu.live/

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Big brother tracking you?

Michelin to fit RFID tags in all tires by 2023

ERJ Staff  December 11, 2020

Clermont-Ferrand, France – Michelin has announced plans to incorporate Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) chips into all its car tires by 2023.

In a statement 10 Dec, the manufacturer said it believed RFID technology was a cost-effective way of tracking tires "from cradle to grave" and a significant contributor to predictive maintenance services.

In addition, Michelin expects the technology to enhance driver safety by allowing advanced driver assistance systems such as ESP to fine tune responses according to specific tire characteristics.

At the end of a tire's life, Michelin noted, the technology could be used to improve recycling rates, allow proof of recycling and increase the efficiency of energy recovery programmes. 

Dealers and workshops will also benefit fromt he knowhow as exact tire identification and data will be easily accessible, reducing fitting errors and helping with stock control.

Michelin said it is currently working with car manufacturers to develop algorithms that could pave the way for new advances as cars become more connected.

“Since RFID technology ensures this exact tire identification, it is conceivable in the future that drivers will see a tire status display next to their fuel gauge,” said Michael Ewert, VP global sales for original equipment at Michelin.

The technology, Ewert said, makes many new business models possible and can also increase safety when driving. 

“We are convinced it represents a significant step forward in the tire industry,” he added.

As part of the move, Michelin expects up to 15 million chips a year to be encased in rubber at its Homburg plant in western Germany. 

The chips are then installed in new tires on site or shipped to other factories in Europe, China, Thailand and Brazil, Michelin added.  

https://www.european-rubber-journal.com/news/michelin-fit-rfid-tags-all-tires-2023

Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. 

H. L. Mencken