By Swati
Pandey
SYDNEY
(Reuters) - Asian shares retreated from a record peak on Monday after a Reuters
report the United States was preparing to impose sanctions on some Chinese
officials highlighted geopolitical tensions, while oil prices fell on surging
virus cases.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3%
following four straight sessions of gains.
It is still up about 16% so far this year, the best since a 33% jump in
2017.
China’s blue-chip index dropped 0.8%, largely ignoring strong export
data, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 1.8%.
Japan’s Nikkei declined 0.4% while Australian shares were up 0.4%.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 were down 0.2% after starting higher.
The sell-off began after Reuters exclusively reported, citing sources,
that the United States was preparing sanctions on at least a dozen Chinese
officials over their alleged role in Beijing’s disqualification of elected opposition
legislators in Hong Kong.
The move comes as President Donald Trump’s administration keeps up
pressure on Beijing in his final weeks in office.
“One thing that the market has been concerned about is that on his ‘Out
of office’ Trump would look for some retribution on China. So this news speaks
to that fear,” said Kyle Rodda, market strategist at IG Markets in Melbourne.
“At the end of the day, the market knows he only has six weeks left. The
broader focus is still on vaccine roll-outs and U.S. fiscal stimulus.”
Asian markets had initially started higher on hopes of a faster global
recovery as coronavirus vaccines get rolled out, starting this week in Britain.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/asian-shares-ease-from-record-high-oil-falls-on-virus-case-surge-idUKKBN28H00Z?il=0
A popular stock-market indicator
flashes red as Dow soars to records Friday Last Updated: Dec. 4, 2020 at 8:14 p.m. ET
First Published: Dec. 4, 2020 at 12:36 p.m. ET
An often-cited measure of stock valuations, popularized by
Warren Buffett, is affirming a growing fear on Wall Street: equity prices are
richer than their fundamental underpinnings.
The so-called “Buffett indicator ” measures the market capitalization of
the Wilshire 5000 Total Market W5000, +1.04% , against that of the latest reading of gross
domestic product in the third quarter, which stands at $21.16 trillion, as one measure of stock
valuations.
The Wilshire 5000 is used as a gauge of the total value of
the U.S. equity market, which would stand at $38.704 trillion, per the index
reading as of midday Friday.
Dividing the total market cap against third-quarter’s GDP
read translates to a reading of 182.91, which by some estimates is near the
highest measure of equity values in history.
An article by Yahoo Finance in August recently noted that the indicator
averages around 93 and 114 and that the second-quarter of 2020 represented a
recent peak of 182.7. Market technicians say a reading of 70 to 80 represents a
good time to invest in the market, while one at or over 100 suggests it is time
to get out or stop buying.
To be sure, the Buffett yardstick, which the Berkshire
Hathaway BRK.A, +0.11% boss previously hailed as “the best
single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” has been flagged numerous times during this recent post-pandemic
rally, as a worrisome sign that markets are getting ahead of themselves and
overly hyped up on COVID-19 vaccine progress.
MarketWatch has highlighted the indicator nearly a dozen times in the
past few months, as a metric that presaged the 2001 crash.
That said, this latest reading comes as the chorus of folks
talking about lofty stock valuations is growing.
Indeed, according to Deutsche Bank strategist Jim
Reid, the recent run-up in U.S. stocks has taken markets “above the level seen
on the eve of the 1929 stock market crash and the recent peak in January
2018,” citing the CAPE ratio of price-to-earnings created in part by Robert
Shiller.
U.S. market action, however, has been unperturbed, rising
to records unabated on the hope that a fresh round of coronavirus relief from
Washington lawmakers will come to fruition, helping to fortify the
virus-stricken economy.
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.83% , the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.88% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.70% all finished at all-time highs .
Shiller himself indicated that there could be a sound
reason why stocks continue to defy gravity and market-cap logic,
noting in commentary in MarketWatch from Project Syndicate that the current dynamic
“confirms the relative attractiveness of equities, particularly given a
potentially protracted period of low interest rates.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-popular-stock-market-indicator-flashes-red-as-dow-soars-to-records-friday-11607103399
Next,
more on the decline and fall of Hong Kong.
Former Hong Kong lawmaker Ted Hui
says his bank accounts frozen December 6,
2020 9:09 AM By Reuters Staff
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Former Hong Kong lawmaker Ted Hui
said on Sunday his local bank accounts appeared to have been frozen after fled
to Britain with his family to continue his pro-democracy activities.
Hui told Reuters via social media WhatsApp that bank accounts belonging
to him, his wife and his parents at Bank of China Hong Kong, HSBC and Hang Seng
Bank were frozen. He gave no further details.
Democracy activists say conditions have worsened in the former British
colony after China imposed security legislation on the financial hub in June,
making anything Beijing regards as subversion, secession, terrorism or
colluding with foreign forces punishable by up to life in prison.
China, which promises Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy, denies
curbing rights and freedoms, but authorities in Hong Kong and Beijing have
moved swiftly to quash dissent after anti-government protests erupted last year
and engulfed the city.
Local media reported that at least five accounts worth hundreds of
thousands of U.S. dollars belonging to Hui and his family had been inaccessible
since Saturday.
Hui contacted the banks and was told there were “remarks” placed on his
accounts, but the staff refused to provide further information, Hong Kong’s
South China Morning Post reported.
“We do not comment on the details of individual accounts,” a Hang Seng
Bank spokesman told Reuters by email. HSBC and Bank of China did not
immediately respond to requests for comment.
Hong Kong police said late on Sunday that they were investigating a Hong
Kong person, who had absconded overseas with bank accounts being frozen, for
suspected money laundering and possible violation of the new national security
law.
---- Hui said on Thursday he had fled Hong
Kong after facing criminal charges and would seek exile in Britain.
One of the pro-democracy activists arrested last month and charged with
disturbing legislature proceedings, Hui arrived in Copenhagen last week on an
invitation from Danish lawmakers.
Hong Kong’s Security Bureau issued a statement on Friday that, while not
naming Hui, said “running away by jumping bail and using various excuses such
as so-called ‘exile’ to avoid one’s responsibility is a shameful, hypocritical
and cowardly act of recoil”.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-hongkong-security/former-hong-kong-lawmaker-ted-hui-says-his-bank-accounts-frozen-idUKKBN28G08C?il=0
Finally,
life goes on outside of the chaotic rump-EUSSR where Brexit trade talks
continue endlessly. Given that all 27 rump-EUSSR parliaments plus the EU
parliament itself must ratify any potential trade treaty, the chance of getting
an agreed trade deal are low and have been all along.
Swiss approve agreement on service
workers mobility with Britain December 4, 2020
11:41 AM By Reuters Staff
ZURICH (Reuters) - Switzerland has approved
an agreement to allow free movement of service workers between the country and
Britain after Brexit, the Bern government said on Friday.
The Services Mobility Agreement (SMA)
between Switzerland and Britain regulates the mutual access and temporary stay
of service suppliers, for example of management consultants, IT experts or
engineers for up to 90 days per year.
The agreement, which also contains
provisions on the recognition of professional qualifications, replaces the
current measures on free movement of people which lapses on Jan.1.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-swiss-britain-workers/swiss-approve-agreement-on-service-workers-mobility-with-britain-idUKKBN28E1HK
'On a knife edge': Britain and EU
in last-ditch trade talks
December
5, 2020 9:05 PM
Updated 6 hours ago By Estelle
Shirbon , Padraic Halpin
LONDON/DUBLIN (Reuters) - Britain and the European Union
will make a last-ditch attempt to strike a post-Brexit trade deal this week,
with probably just days left for negotiators to avert a chaotic parting of ways
at the end of the year.
Ireland’s prime minister, whose country would face more economic pain
than any of the other 26 EU member states in the case of a “no deal”, cautioned
against over-optimism, putting the chances of an agreement at only 50-50.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President
Ursula von der Leyen spoke over the weekend to get their teams back to the
negotiating table after talks stalled on three thorny issues.
They are due to hold another call on Monday evening in the hope that, by
then, stubborn differences over fishing rights in UK waters, fair competition
and ways to solve future disputes will have narrowed.
The Guardian newspaper reported after talks resumed on Sunday that there
had been “a major breakthrough” on the rights of European fleets to fish in UK
waters, leaving only a wrestle over how closely Britain should hew to EU
environmental, social and labour standards over time to ensure a level playing
field.
A British government source said there had been no breakthrough on
fishing rights on Sunday.
EU officials did not immediately comment
on the report.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-talks/on-a-knife-edge-britain-and-eu-in-last-ditch-trade-talks-idUKKBN28F0T0
Winter
Watch.
From around mid-October, the northern
hemisphere snow cover usually rapidly expands, while the Arctic ice gradually
expands back towards its winter maximum.
Over simplified, a rapid expansion of
both, especially if early, can be a sign of a harsher than normal arriving northern
hemisphere winter. Perhaps more so in 2020-2021 as we’re in the low of the
ending sunspot cycle, which possibly also influenced this year’s record
Atlantic hurricane season.
Update: we seem to have started new sunspot cycle 25 this month ,
though it’s unlikely to affect 2020-2021s coming winter.
Northern Eur-Asia turned snowy fast in
mid-October. The Arctic sea ice
expansion was slow, and from a very low level at the end of September, but with
the vastly expanded snow cover, sea ice formation sped up.
With the Laptev sea ice virtually back
to normal at the end of November I’m
starting to think that it will likely be a normal to slightly warmer winter
ahead for western Europe.
The failure of the Kara Sea ice to
return to normal, leads me to bet on a warmer western European winter ahead.
Arctic
and Antarctic Sea Ice.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif
“The world is a place that’s
gone from being flat to round to crooked.”
Mad
Magazine.
Covid-19 Corner This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Vaccines Set to Launch; U.S.
Hospitalizations Rise: Virus Update Bloomberg News December
6, 2020, 10:57 PM GMT Updated on December 7, 2020, 3:42 AM GMT
It’s
a landmark week for vaccines, with the U.K. set to launch Pfizer Inc.’s shot while the
U.S. could approve the vaccine for emergency use as early as Thursday.
Global coronavirus cases surpassed 67 million, with record
infections sweeping across U.S. states and hospitalizations rising by almost
2,000 a day. President Donald Trump said his attorney Rudy Giuliani has tested positive .
South Korea is imposing stricter social-distancing measures ,
including a ban on gatherings at high-risk venues such as karaoke bars, as the
Asian nation that was lauded for its initial containment strategy faces one of
its worst resurgences.
Key Developments: More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-06/u-s-poised-for-vaccine-outbreak-set-to-worsen-virus-update?srnd=coronavirus
Britain gets ready for rollout of
Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine this week
December
6, 2020
12:05 AM
Updated 10 hours ago
By Estelle
Shirbon , Alistair Smout
LONDON
(Reuters) - Britain is preparing to become the first country to roll out the
Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine this week, initially making the shot available
at hospitals before distributing stocks to doctors’ clinics, the government
said on Sunday.
Footage posted by the National Health Service (NHS) showed boxes
containing doses of the vaccine being delivered to Croydon University Hospital
in south London and being stored in a special, securely locked fridge.
“This is just so exciting. It’s a momentous occasion,” said Louise
Coghlan, joint chief pharmacist at the Croydon health service. “To know that
they are here and we are much the first in the country to actually receive the
vaccine, and therefore the first in the world, is just amazing. I’m so proud.”
The first doses are set to be administered on Tuesday, with the NHS
giving top priority to vaccinating the over-80s, frontline healthcare workers
and care home staff and residents.
Britain gave emergency use approval for the vaccine developed by Pfizer
and BioNTech last week - jumping ahead in the global race to begin the most
crucial mass inoculation programme in history.
In total, Britain has ordered 40 million doses. As each person requires
two doses, that is enough to vaccinate 20 million people in the country of 67
million.
About 800,000 doses are expected to be available within the first week.
Initial doses that have arrived from Belgium are being stored in secure
locations across the country, where they will be quality checked, the health
ministry said.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-vaccine/britain-gets-ready-for-rollout-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-this-week-idUKKBN28G001
Finally, a good, if long,
yarn.
06.08.2020 07:00
AM
Who Discovered the First Vaccine? As the world scrambles to develop an
inoculation against Covid-19, it’s worth understanding the early, extraordinary
history of the technique.
The English doctor Thomas Dimsdale was nervous.
It was the evening of October 12, 1768, and Dimsdale was preparing the
empress of Russia, Catherine the Great, for her procedure. From a technical
perspective, what he planned was simple, medically sound, and minimally
invasive. It required only two or three small slices into Catherine’s arm.
Nevertheless, Dimsdale had good reason for his concern, because into those
slices he would grind a few scabby pustules teeming with variola —the
virus responsible for smallpox and the death of nearly a third of those who
contracted it. Though he infected Catherine at her behest, Dimsdale was so
concerned about the outcome that he secretly arranged for a stagecoach to rush
him out of Saint Petersburg should his procedure go awry.
What Dimsdale planned is alternatively called a variolation or
inoculation, and while it was dangerous it nevertheless represented the
pinnacle of medical achievement at the time. In a variolation, a doctor
transferred smallpox pustules from a sick patient into a healthy one
because—for reasons no one at the time understood—a variolated patient
typically developed only a mild case of smallpox while still gaining lifelong
immunity.
---- And yet the idea to intentionally infect a
patient with a lethal virus to help them did first occur to someone—and it was
perhaps the greatest idea in the history of medicine.
It was not Jenner’s idea, nor was it Dimsdale’s. But it may have been a
single person’s. Remarkably, variolation may not have been independently
discovered. Instead, the earliest documentation suggests it began in
China—probably in the southwestern provinces of either Anhui or Jiangxi—before
spreading across the globe in a cascading series of introductions.
Chinese merchants introduced variolation to India and brought knowledge
of the practice to Africa, where it became widespread. In 1721 an enslaved
African man named Onesimus–who may have been born in West Africa though exactly
where is unknown–was variolated as a child before slave traders brought him to
Boston. Once in New England, Onesimus taught his enslaver Cotton Mather the
practice, and Mather successfully convinced doctors in the Americas of its
efficacy.
More
https://www.wired.com/story/who-discovered-first-vaccine/?bxid=5cc9e09a3f92a477a0e84d6d&cndid=52110326&esrc=Wired_etl_load&mbid=mbid%3DCRMWIR012019%0A%0A&source=EDT_WIR_NEWSLETTER_0_DAILY_ZZ&utm_brand=wired&utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_content=Final&utm_mailing=WIR_Daily_120520&utm_medium=email&utm_source=nl&utm_term=list1_p3
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most
informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines . https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker . https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford
Website . https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker . https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
https://rt.live/
Covid19info.live
https://wuflu.live/
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Physicists in China challenge
Google’s ‘quantum advantage’ Photon-based quantum computer does a
calculation that ordinary computers might never be able to do.
03 December 2020
A team in China claims to have made the first definitive
demonstration of ‘quantum advantage’ — exploiting the counter-intuitive
workings of quantum mechanics to perform computations that would be
prohibitively slow on classical computers.
They have used beams of laser light to perform a
computation which had been mathematically proven to be practically impossible
on normal computers. The team achieved within a few minutes what would take
half the age of Earth on the best existing supercomputers. Contrary to Google’s first
demonstration of a quantum advantage , performed last year, their version is
virtually unassailable by any classical computer. The results appeared in Science
on 3 December1
“We have shown that we can use photons, the fundamental
unit of light, to demonstrate quantum computational power well beyond the
classical counterpart,” says Jian-Wei Pan at the University of Science and
Technology of China in Hefei. He adds that the calculation that they carried
out — called the boson-sampling problem — is not just a convenient vehicle for
demonstrating quantum advantage, but has potential practical applications in
graph theory, quantum chemistry and machine learning.
“This is certainly a tour de force experiment, and an
important milestone,” says physicist Ian Walmsley at Imperial College London.
Teams at both academic and corporate laboratories have been
vying to demonstrate quantum advantage (a term that has now largely replaced
the earlier ‘quantum supremacy’).
Last year, researchers at Google’s quantum-computing
laboratory in Santa Barbara, California, announced the first-ever demonstration
of quantum advantage. They used their state-of-the-art Sycamore device, which
has 53 quantum bits (qubits) made from superconducting circuits that are kept
at ultracold temperatures2
But some quantum researchers contested the claim, on the
grounds that a better classical algorithm that would outperform the quantum one
could exist3
To convincingly demonstrate quantum advantage, it should be
unlikely that a significantly faster classical method could ever be found for
the task being tested.
The Hefei team, led by Pan and Chao-Yang
Lu , chose a different problem for its demonstration, called boson sampling.
It was devised in 2011 by two computer scientists, Scott Aaronson and Alex
Arkhipov4
200 seconds But the calculation in this case is a ‘#P-hard problem’, which
is even harder than notoriously tricky NP-hard problems, for which the number
of solutions increases exponentially with the number of variables. For many
tens of bosons, Aaronson and Arkhipov showed that there’s no classical shortcut
for the impossibly long calculation.
A quantum computer, however, can sidestep the brute-force
calculation by simulating the quantum process directly — allowing bosons to
interfere and sampling the resulting distribution. To do this, Pan and
colleagues chose to use photons as their qubits. They carried out the task on a
photonic quantum computer working at room temperature.
More
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03434-7?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=64d644f9c0-briefing-wk-20201204&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-64d644f9c0-42132819
"We
shouldn't pour cold water on everything.
We, the eight or nine players in global investment banking, have a very
good future."
Deutsche
Bank, CEO Josef Ackermann. Davos, January 2007.
Hi nice reading youur post
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