$600 Or $2,000? Why Not $20,000?

 Baltic Dry Index. 1323 -02 Brent Crude 49.26

Spot Gold 1866

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 23/12/20 World 78,366,708

Deaths 1,724,050

This is one of those cases in which the imagination is baffled by the facts.

Adam Smith  

In the stock casinos worry. After being bailed out by the central bankster’s “no billionaire left behind” Magic Money Tree forest, free cash in 2020, why blow it in the dying days of 2020?

Besides, President Trump is threatening not to sign the long delayed relief bill unless the Congress raise the Santa Claus free money gift to the masses from $600 to $2,000.  

But why stop there? Why not give everyone $20,000 and make Christmas 2020 a real Christmas to remember?

After all, on the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money, communist money, it’s not real money, it’s only fiat money, and there’s plenty more where that comes from. 

Just wait until Democrat-Socialist team Biden-Harris get control of the Magic Money Tree forest next year.

Stock futures slip as Trump threatens to derail stimulus bill

December 22, 2020  11:43 PM

By Tom Westbrook, John McCrank

SINGAPORE/NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. stock futures fell, commodities slipped and Treasuries edged higher on Wednesday after Donald Trump threw a last-minute spanner in to pandemic relief plans by threatening not to sign a long-awaited stimulus bill in to law.

S&P 500 futures were down half a percent by mid-morning in Asia and European and British equity futures fell by the same margin as the news offset hints of progress toward a British trade deal with Europe.

In a video posted on Twitter, Trump said the bill - the result of months of wrangling in Congress - was “a disgrace” with too much foreign spending, adding he wanted to increase “ridiculously low” $600 checks for individuals to $2000.

“Really ... you got to be kidding,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance in a note emailed after Trump’s message.

“Personally we think the President will sign the bill at the last possible moment ... but the true reality star will wait until the end,” he said. “Bond markets close 2 p.m. Thursday while stocks close at 1 p.m. - it may go down to the last moment.”

Ten-year U.S. Treasury futures rose two ticks and the yield on U.S. 10-year government bonds fell one basis point in Asia after Trump’s tweet.

It also soured sentiment which had caught a boost after ITV’s political editor said in a late-night tweet that separate sources had raised the possibility of Britain and the European Union striking a trade deal on Wednesday.

Holiday-thinned markets are also jittery about a highly contagious new coronavirus strain, which has given support to the safe-haven U.S. dollar and yen and dragged on the prices of growth-sensitive commodities from oil to iron ore and copper.

France will re-open borders to Britain on Wednesday, but much of the world has sealed it off after a significantly more transmissible mutated coronavirus variant was discovered spreading swiftly across southern England.

Scientists say there is no evidence that vaccines currently being deployed in Britain will not protect against this variant, but the possibility has begun to haunt traders.

“The worry right now is whether the vaccine is less effective,” said Bank of Singapore currency analyst Moh Siong Sim.

“All these unknowns are keeping markets edgy, especially when they have made quite a bit for the year from the rally. People are keen to say let’s take some money off the table.”

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/stock-futures-slip-as-trump-threatens-to-derail-stimulus-bill-idUKKBN28W2RX?il=0

Finally, does history repeat?

 

This market has all the signs of investor mania that JK Galbraith warned us about

Larry Sarbit: Here's how to avoid getting caught in the traps forewarned by Galbraith

Dec 22, 2020  

As we approach the end of one of the most bizarre years on record, it might pay investors to reflect on a historical perspective. Hopefully, we can learn some valuable lessons. To my mind, there is no better author of such circumstances than John Kenneth Galbraith, the brilliant Canadian economist.

J.K. Galbraith is known for dozens of books on finance and financial history. A Short History of Financial Euphoria, published in 1990, deals with some of history’s most spectacular investment manias, stretching from the 17th-century Tulipmania up to the crash of 1987.

The must-read chapter is the second, titled “The Common Denominators,” which looks at the common threads that run though all these extraordinary events. Unfortunately, many of them are visible in today’s market.

That the same threads recur “is of no slight importance,” Galbraith notes: “Recognizing them, the sensible person or institution is or should be warned.”

However, he goes on to observe that, “the chances are not great, for built into the speculative episode is the euphoria, the mass escape from reality, that excludes any serious contemplation of the true nature of what is taking place.”

Of the factors that occur repeatedly, he says, “the first is the extreme brevity of the financial memory.”

Having been in the investment business for more than 40 years, I have witnessed this occur repeatedly. It certainly is prevalent in today’s period. Many of today’s investment population, individual and institutional participants, simply weren’t around for, or aware of, events such as the crash of Oct. 19, 1987, the dot-com bubble or the financial disaster of 2008. And, as Galbraith notes, “There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.”

Here’s another Galbraith insight: “Uniformly in all such events there is the thought that there is something new in the world. In all speculative episodes there is always “an element of pride in discovering what is seemingly new and greatly rewarding in the way of financial instrument or investment opportunity. The individual or institution that does so is thought to be wonderfully ahead of the mob.”

---- Another warning, “All financial innovation involves, in one form or another, the creation of debt secured in greater or lesser adequacy by real assets…. All crises have involved debt that, in one fashion or another, has become dangerously out of scale in relation to the underlying means of payment.”

Welcome to the present. As of October 2020, America’s national debt had reached US$27 trillion. As of April 2020, debt as a percentage of GDP was 122 per cent. Ten years ago, that statistic was 84 per cent and 10 years before that, it was 58 per cent. The curve representing that statistic has gone parabolic. As Galbraith warns, excessive debt eventually can result in calamity.

More

https://financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/this-market-has-all-the-signs-of-investor-mania-that-jk-galbraith-warned-us-about

 

Winter Watch.

From around mid-October, the northern hemisphere snow cover usually rapidly expands, while the Arctic ice gradually expands back towards its winter maximum.

Over simplified, a rapid expansion of both, especially if early, can be a sign of a harsher than normal arriving northern hemisphere winter. Perhaps more so in 2020-2021 as we’re in the low of the ending sunspot cycle, which possibly also influenced this year’s record Atlantic hurricane season.

Update: we seem to have started new sunspot cycle 25 this month, though it’s unlikely to affect 2020-2021s coming winter.

Northern Eur-Asia turned snowy fast in mid-October.  The Arctic sea ice expansion was slow, and from a very low level at the end of September, but with the vastly expanded snow cover, sea ice formation sped up.

The Laptev Sea ice was back to normal at the end of November.  The failure of the Kara Sea ice still to return to normal, leads me to bet on a warmer western European winter ahead.

Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Modern Iceland’s Climate Is Colder With More Ice Than Any Other Time In The Last 8000 Years Except The 1800s

·  2020   December   16

A wealth of new research in glacier and sea ice extent show modern Iceland is 2-4°C colder than all of the last 8000 years except for a slightly colder late 19th century. Even the 1700s were warmer with less ice than today in and around Iceland.

A new study (Geirsdóttir et al., 2020) now affirms peak Holocene warmth at  least “∼3–4 °C above modern in Iceland” prevailed throughout much of the last 8000 years. Data from tree growth, glacier-induced soil erosion, algae productivity, sea ice biomarker proxies (IP25), and other climate indices affirm these conclusions.

Harning et al., 2020 report an overall 7°C Holocene cooling trend In Iceland’s surrounding sea surface temperatures (SST).

“In terms of foraminifera-reconstructed SST there is an overall trend of cooling throughout the last 8 ka from ~10 °C to ~3 °C.”

It is only in the last few centuries of the modern era that temperatures sharply plummeted to their lowest values of the last 10,000 years (Geirsdóttir et al., 2020).

“The coolest climate of the last 10 ka occurred in the late 1800s CE.”

Consequent to the peak cooling, glaciers and sea ice reached their maximum extents of the Holocene just 150 years ago.

While Iceland’s glaciers and North Shelf sea ice extent did partially recover in the first half of the 20th century, the ice extents are still beyond what they were in the 1700s and earlier.

There is nothing to indicate modern warmth or ice recession in and around Iceland is unprecedented or even unusual.

More

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/12/16/modern-icelands-climate-is-colder-with-more-ice-than-any-other-time-in-the-last-8000-years-except-the-1800s/

All money is a matter of belief.

Adam Smith

Covid-19 Corner                       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Today, why the new mutant SARS-CoV-2 might be no big deal. About 25 minutes long.

SARS-CoV-2 UK variant: Does it matter?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wC8ObD2W4Rk

What you need to know about the coronavirus right now

December 23, 2020  5:16 AM  By Reuters Staff

(Reuters) - Here’s what you need to know about the coronavirus right now:

WHO meets over new variant; drugmakers expect to confirm vaccine effective against it

The World Health Organization (WHO) has called a meeting of members for Wednesday to discuss strategies to counter a new, more infectious variant of the coronavirus that has emerged in Britain. A spokeswoman said the meeting was designed to help with information-sharing.

At least four drugmakers expect their COVID-19 vaccines will be effective against the new fast-spreading variant and are performing tests that should provide confirmation in a few weeks. The mutation known as the B.1.1.7 lineage may be up to 70% more infectious and more of a concern for children.

In the event that the variant presents vaccine developers with an unexpected challenge, an advantage of Pfizer and BioNTech’s mRNA vaccine is that scientists can quickly re-engineer genetic material in the shot to match that of the mutated protein, whereas modifying traditional vaccines would require extra steps.

S. Korea logs second-highest daily coronavirus tally

South Korea reported on Wednesday its second-highest daily tally of coronavirus cases as a survey underscored growing public dissatisfaction with President Moon Jae-in’s handling of the latest wave of infections hitting the country.

According to a poll by research firm Realmeter published on Wednesday, six in ten South Koreans believe urgency should be prioritised over safety when it comes to COVID-19 vaccines and that inoculations should begin as soon as possible given the rapid surge in new cases.

Domestic media has lambasted the government’s approach to securing vaccines as too relaxed and overly reliant on domestic vaccines which will take more time than overseas options.

Vaccine stirs rare hesitation in nearly virus-free Singapore

As Singapore prepares to roll out COVID-19 vaccinations, its striking success in controlling the virus is making some question whether they should take the jabs. In a city-state where compliance with the authorities is generally high, some Singaporeans fear potential side effects - even if minimal - are not worth the risk when daily cases are almost zero and fatalities are among the world’s lowest.

But the government is keen to open more of the economy with the help of the vaccine in a country dependent on travel and trade and preparing to host the World Economic Forum’s annual gathering next year.

To show the vaccine is safe, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, 68, said he and his colleagues would be among the early recipients of the shots. They will be free, voluntary and given first to healthcare workers and the elderly. The first shipment of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine arrived this week and Singapore expects to have enough vaccines for all 5.7 million people by the third quarter of 2021.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-snapshot/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-coronavirus-right-now-idUKKBN28X0GX?il=0

EU to get 12.5 million doses of BioNTech-Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine by year-end

December 22, 2020  9:34 AM

ZURICH/FRANKFURT (Reuters) -BioNTech and U.S. drugmaker Pfizer will supply 12.5 million doses of their COVID-19 vaccine to the European Union by the end of the year, the German company said on Tuesday.

That is more than half the 20 million doses expected to be delivered to the United States before the end of the year, BioNTech’s chief business officer, Sean Marett, told a briefing.

With two shots administered three weeks apart, the EU deliveries would be enough to vaccinate 6.25 million people as the companies gear up to deliver the first shots following regulatory approval on Monday.

The 27 EU member states that want shots will receive them within five days, Marett told a briefing.

The German biotech company plans to start production in February at its site in Marburg, Germany, chief financial officer Sierk Poetting said in the same briefing.

It has said previously the facility, which it bought in September, would eventually have an annual production capacity up to 750 million doses.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-germany-biontech-s/eu-to-get-12-5-million-doses-of-biontech-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-by-year-end-idUKKBN28W0YZ?il=0

Pfizer, Moderna testing their vaccines against UK coronavirus variant - CNN

December 22, 2020  10:46 AM

(Reuters) - Pfizer Inc and Moderna Inc are testing their COVID-19 vaccines against the new fast-spreading version of the virus that has emerged in Britain, CNN reported on Tuesday.

Moderna expects immunity from its vaccine to protect against the variants and is performing more tests in the coming weeks to confirm, the company said in a statement to CNN. cnn.it/38qpbFl

Pfizer said it is “generating data” on how well blood samples from people immunized with its vaccine “may be able to neutralize the new strain from the UK,” according to the report.

Pfizer and Moderna did not immediately respond to Reuters’ requests for comment.

The discovery of the new strain sowed a fresh wave of panic in a pandemic that has killed about 1.7 million people and infected more than 77.15 million worldwide.

The main worry is that the new variant is 40%-70% more transmissible.

Scientists have said there’s no evidence that vaccines currently being deployed in the United Kingdom - made by Pfizer and BioNTech - or other COVID-19 shots in development will not protect against this variant, known as the B.1.1.7 lineage.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-pfizer-moderna/pfizer-moderna-testing-their-vaccines-against-uk-coronavirus-variant-cnn-idUKKBN28W149?il=0

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

Covid19info.live 

https://wuflu.live/

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Flexible and powerful electronics

Date:  December 16, 2020

Source:  University of Tsukuba

Summary:  Researchers have developed a method for optimizing the electrical properties of carbon-based conductors by turning them into an ionic gel. This work may open the way for cheap, highly efficient sensors that can be printed on flexible surfaces.

Researchers at the University of Tsukuba have created a new carbon-based electrical device, π-ion gel transistors (PIGTs), by using an ionic gel made of a conductive polymer. This work may lead to cheaper and more reliable flexible printable electronics.

Organic conductors, which are carbon-based polymers that can carry electrical currents, have the potential to radically change the way electronic devices are manufactured. These conductors have properties that can be tuned via chemical modification and may be easily printed as circuits. Compared with current silicon solar panels and transistors, systems based on organic conductors could be flexible and easier to install. However, their electrical conductivity can be drastically reduced if the conjugated polymer chains become disordered because of incorrect processing, which greatly limits their ability to compete with existing technologies.

Now, a team of researchers led by the University of Tsukuba have formulated a novel method for preserving the electrical properties of organic conductors by forming an "ion gel." In this case, the solvent around the poly(para-phenyleneethynylene) (PPE) chains was replaced with an ionic liquid, which then turned into a gel. Using confocal fluorescent microscopy and scanning electron microscopy, the researchers were able to verify the morphology of the organic conductor.

"We showed that the internal structure of our π-ion gel is a nanofiber network of PPE, which is very good at reliably conducting electricity" says author Professor Yohei Yamamoto.

In addition to acting as wires for delocalized electrons, the polymer chains direct the flow of mobile ions, which can help move charge-carriers to the carbon rings. This allows current to flow through the entire volume of the device. The resulting transistor can switch on and off in response to voltage changes in less than 20 microseconds -- which is faster than any previous device of this type.

"We plan to use this advance in supramolecular chemistry and organic electronics to design a whole arrange of flexible electronic devices," explains Professor Yamamoto. The fast response time and high conductivity open the way for flexible sensors that enjoy the ease of fabrication associated with organic conductors, without sacrificing speed or performance.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/12/201216104640.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fmatter_energy%2Fgraphene+%28Graphene+News+--+ScienceDaily%29

No society can surely be flourishing and happy, of which the far greater part of the members are poor and miserable.

Adam Smith.