Baltic Dry Index. 1189 -12 Brent Crude 49.67
Spot Gold 1839
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 04/12/20 World 65,536,644
Deaths 1,511,27
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."
Ludwig von Mises
In casino-land a wobble. What if the vaccines don’t live up to their hype? What if people are only protected from developing Covid-19 but remain infectious with SARS-CoV-2?
S&P 500 falls after Pfizer announces vaccine supply chain issues
Dec. 3, 2020 / 5:00 PM
Dec. 3 (UPI) -- The S&P 500 turned negative in the final hour of trading on Thursday as Pfizer announced it was facing supply chain issues.
The S&P 500 ended the day down 2.29 points, or 0.062%, after hitting an intraday high earlier in the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 85.73 points, or 0.29%, after gaining more than 200 points earlier in the session and the Nasdaq Composed dropped 27.82 points, or 0.23%.
Markets reversed their gains from earlier in the day after The Wall Street Journal reported that Pfizer only expected to ship half of the vaccines it originally planned to release this year, saying that "scaling up the raw material supply chain took longer than expected."
The drugmaker, however, said it still planned to ship more than a billion doses of the vaccine in 2021.
Markets also reacted to the latest report from the Labor Department stating that 712,000 additional workers filed new unemployment claims for the week ending Nov. 28, a decline of 75,000.
Further, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell spoke on the phone Thursday to discuss a bipartisan $908 billion pandemic relief bill backed by Democratic leaders on Wednesday.
Pfizer chairman: We're not sure if someone can transmit virus after vaccination
By Joseph Choi - 12/03/20 02:36 PM EST
Pfizer chairman Albert Bourla told Dateline host Lester Holt that the pharmaceutical company was “not certain” if the vaccine prevented the coronavirus from being transmitted, saying, “This is something that needs to be examined.”
In a prime-time special titled “Race for a Vaccine” set to air Thursday, Holt questioned Bourla and other individuals involved in the development and distribution of the medicine.
In November, Pfizer announced that its vaccine candidate had been shown to be more than 90 percent effective at preventing COVID-19 and has applied for emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
The U.K. became the first country to approve Pfizer’s vaccine this week with the first round of immunizations expected to roll out next week.
In a list of interview highlights released before the special, Holt asked Bourla, “Even though I’ve had the protection, am I still able to transmit it to other people?”
“I think this is something that needs to be examined. We are not certain about that right now with what we know,” Bourla responded.
Though Pfizer’s vaccine has shown promising results, challenges have surfaced when it comes to distributing and administering it. The vaccine must be delivered and stored in extreme sub-zero temperatures, which has heightened the demand for dry ice.
Once the vaccine is kept at normal refrigeration temperatures, it must be used within four or five days or be discarded. The vaccine is administered in two doses spaced a few weeks apart.
Government health officials have said that if the vaccine is approved, the first round of immunizations could be available for health care workers and high-risk individuals before the end of the year.
More
In the real world as we head in to Christmas 2020, rising distress.
700,000 more workers in U.S. file new unemployment claims
Dec. 3, 2020 / 9:52 AM
Dec. 3 (UPI) -- Another 700,000 U.S. workers have filed for unemployment, the Labor Department said Thursday in its weekly jobless report.
The department said 712,000 additional workers filed new unemployment claims for the week ending Nov. 28, a decrease of 75,000.
Thursday's report was the first in three weeks to show a decline in claims from one week to the next.
The department also revised last week's figure up by 9,000 claims.
The jobless figure on Thursday was slightly better than the 775,000 most analysts expected.
Five and a half million continuing claims, which lag initial claims by a week, are also lower than expected. The report showed those claims decreased by about 570,000.
The report said the unemployment rate at the end of last week was 3.8%.
The department will expand on the U.S. employment picture on Friday when it releases its November jobs report.
Experts predict the report will show between 440,000 and 480,000 jobs were added last month. In their joint report Wednesday, ADP and Moody's Analytics said 307,000 private payrolls were added nationwide in November.
Covid Shrinks the Labor Market, Pushing Out Women and Baby Boomers
Nearly four million Americans have stopped working or looking for jobs
Dec. 3, 2020 2:01 pm ET
Since spring lockdowns were lifted, the demand for workers has snapped back faster than many economists expected. Between April and October the unemployment rate fell by more than half, to 6.9%, undoing more than two-thirds of its initial rise.
But unemployment data overstates the health of the labor market because the supply of people either working or looking for a job has declined. The U.S. labor force is 2.2% smaller than in February, a loss of 3.7 million workers.
The labor-force participation rate, or the share of Americans 16 years and over working or seeking work, was 61.7% in October, down from 63.4% in February. Though up from April’s trough, that is near its lowest since the 1970s, when far fewer women were in the workforce.
The supply of workers and their productivity are the building blocks of economic growth. A smaller labor force leaves fewer workers to build machines and clean tables, restraining the economy’s long-term prospects.
“If we don’t get all the workers back, we can never have a V-shaped recovery,” said Betsey Stevenson, economics professor at the University of Michigan, referring to a quick and sustained bounce-back after a sharp decline. “Everybody should be worried about making sure that we don’t leave workers behind,” she said.
More
Southwest Airlines gives furlough warning to almost 7,000 workers
Dec. 3, 2020 / 2:17 PM
Dec. 3 (UPI) -- Hindered by depressed demand for air travel, Southwest Airlines on Thursday gave furlough warnings to nearly 7,000 employees after a deal to cut wages by 10% next year stalled.
The warning went out to 6,800 pilots, flight attendants and other employees and union members. If the carrier furloughs any staff, it would be the first time in Southwest's 50-year history that it's ever issued involuntary dismissals or cut salaries.
Southwest gave the furlough warning to 1,200 pilots, 1,500 flight attendants, 2,500 ramp workers and 1,200 customer service employees in ground transportation. The furloughs could occur as soon as March.
"We have been engaged with our unions since early October seeking temporary cost reductions to help offset over one billion dollars of over staffing costs projected for 2021," Southwest Vice President of Labor Relations Russell McCrady said.
"Our absolute goal is to preserve every job at Southwest Airlines; however, due to a lack of meaningful progress in negotiations, we had to proceed with issuing notifications to additional employees who are valued members of the Southwest family."
Southwest Airlines Pilots Association President Jon Weaks said the union has been active in proposing options to avoid furloughs, but all have been rejected by company negotiators.
"Today marks a sad milestone,'' Weaks said.
Southwest reported this fall that revenues fell by almost 70% in the third quarter.
Euro zone business activity shrank sharply in November - PMI
December 3, 2020 9:29 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - Euro zone business activity contracted sharply last month as governments across the bloc reimposed strict lockdown measures to try to quell a second wave of coronavirus infections, a survey showed on Thursday.
The bloc’s economy will shrink again this quarter, according to a Reuters poll, but with hopes for a coronavirus vaccine and additional support from the European Central Bank, quarterly growth forecasts for next year were upgraded.
IHS Markit’s composite PMI, seen as a good guide to economic health, sank to 45.3 in November from October’s 50.0 - the exact level separating growth from contraction. That was however above an earlier flash reading of 45.1.
“The euro zone economy slipped back into a downturn in November as governments stepped up the fight against COVID-19, with business activity hit once again by new restrictions to fight off second waves of virus infections,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.
A PMI covering the bloc’s dominant services industry sank to 41.7 from October’s 46.9, marking its third month below the breakeven mark. That was its lowest reading since May, when the first wave of the virus was sweeping across Europe.
With hospitality venues forced to close, shops to shut and citizens encouraged to stay at home, demand slumped. The services new business index fell to 40.6 from 45.7.
More
Winter Watch.
The Arctic winter sea-ice expansion and northern hemisphere snow cover. From around mid-October, the northern hemisphere snow cover usually rapidly expands, while the Arctic ice gradually expands back towards its winter maximum.
Over simplified, a rapid expansion of both, especially if early, can be a sign of a harsher than normal arriving northern hemisphere winter. Perhaps more so in 2020-2021 as we’re in the low of the ending sunspot cycle, which possibly also influenced this year’s record Atlantic hurricane season.
Update: we seem to have started new sunspot cycle 25 this month , though it’s unlikely to affect 2020-2021s coming winter.
Northern Eur-Asia turned snowy fast in mid-October. The Arctic sea ice expansion was slow, and from a very low level at the end of September, but with the vastly expanded snow cover, sea ice formation sped up.
With the Laptev sea ice virtually back to normal at the end of November I’m starting to think that it will likely be a normal to slightly warmer winter ahead for western Europe.
The failure of the Kara Sea ice to return to normal, leads me to bet on a warmer western European winter ahead.
Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Today, vaccinate in haste, repent at leisure?
5 Burning Questions About The New COVID Vaccine
by Tyler Durden Thu, 12/03/2020 - 03:30
The United Kingdom government yesterday announced its approval of the first Covid19 vaccine for general use. 800,000 doses are slated to be released for general use by the end of the week, and has already signed a contract for 40 million more doses (to go along with over 300 million doses of as-yet-unreleased vaccines from other companies).
With the newest phase in the Covid19 roll-out set to begin, it’s time we addressed the five biggest questions about this vaccine, its effectiveness, its safety and whether or not we’ll be forced to use it.
1. DOES IT WORK?
Clearly, the company claims it does, and the UK government seems to believe them. The Guardian, in their coverage of the vaccine, claim it has a 95% efficacy rating, but does not provide a source for this or any kind of data at all.
Fortunately, better journalists and researchers are writing for the British Medical Journal, including this piece from Peter Doshi just last week.
To explain where this “95% effective” claim actually comes from:
The Pfizer vaccine trial included nearly 44,000 people. Half getting their vaccine, half getting a placebo. In total, from the 44,000 people, 170 were later recorded as having become ‘infected with Covid19’. 162 of them were in the placebo group, 8 of them in the vaccine group.
The vaccine is therefore credited with preventing 154 cases of Covid19…or 95%.
You don’t need to be a medical researcher or virologist to see how potentially flawed this reasoning is. The entire trial of 44,000 people is deemed a success based on the potentially multi-variant outcome from less than 4% of those involved.
The details of the trial are hard to come by, so we have yet to find out how these 170 people were even diagnosed with “Covid19”. Was it a clinical diagnosis based on symptoms? Or PCR test? Either method would raise serious questions about accuracy.
In short, the answer to “Does it work?” is “we have no idea.”
2. IS IT SAFE?
Potentially more important than the question of efficacy is the question of safety. No one, not even the vaccines most ardent defenders, is denying that this vaccine process has been rushed – vaccines typically take years and years to produce, whereas this one has been hurried on to the market in less than nine months. Some of them have skipped important stages in testing altogether.
Even supposing the short term trials have not shown any side effects, there has simply been no time to do long-term outcome studies. The potential for complications, months or years down the line, certainly exists.
Further, the vaccine is based on new technology – an mRNA vaccine, which injects viral genetic material to generate an immune response. The technology has been in development for years, but this would be the first mRNA vaccine actually put to use.
So, again, the short answer to “is it safe?” is “we don’t know”.
However, the vaccine pushers and manufacturers clearly have doubts about its safety, since they have gone out of their way guarantee they have total legal indemnity from prosecution or civil suits should something go wrong. Not a confidence booster that.
Ask yourself: if Ford or BMW were releasing a new type of car based on “cutting edge technology”, but before you buy one you have to sign a waiver saying you can’t sue the car manufacturers in the event you explode in a fiery ball of death…would you drive that car?
More
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/5-burning-questions-about-new-covid-vaccine
NYC Outbreak Worsens; California Warns of Lockdown: Virus Update
Bloomberg NewsUpdated on December 3, 2020, 10:18 PM GMT
New York City’s average number of coronavirus cases and its infection rate hit the highest levels since May, while statewide daily infections closed in on 10,000. New Jersey reported record cases. California will impose a new shelter-at-home order if hospitals start running short of intensive-care capacity. Delaware, reporting record cases, issued a stay-at-home advisory.
Pfizer expects to ship half the Covid-19 vaccines it originally planned for 2020 due to supply-chain problems, Dow Jones reported. Moderna Inc.’s vaccine appears to offer protection against the coronavirus that will last a minimum of three months and potentially much longer, researchers found.
The latest wave of Covid-19 has inundated the Sun Belt, adding pressure on tourism-dependent cities brutalized by infections and deaths in July and August. Facebook said it will start removing false claims about immunizations that have been debunked by public health experts.
Key Developments:
- Global Tracker: Cases reach 64.9 million; deaths top 1.5 million
- Covid fighters run out of weapons with virus spreading in homes
- Covid’s Sun-Belt return targets Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas
- Operation Warp Speed and U.K. vaccine drive leave Europe behind
- N.Y. developers hire influencers to sell homes during Covid
- Vaccine Tracker: Covid-19 inoculations are about to begin
More
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Covid19info.live
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Exploring How Advanced Materials can Contribute to More Sustainable Construction
Written by AZoM Dec 2 2020
nnovation in advanced materials offers the disruptive potential to transform the way we build our future cities - and make them greener and smarter.
Construction is associated with the so-called Foundation Industries - which span the cement glass, ceramics, metals, paper and bulk chemicals sectors - which in total produce 28 million tonnes of materials per year and account for up to 10 per cent of the UK's total CO- emissions.
If we consider the Climate Change Act (2008) and the UK government's call to reduce carbon emissions to 80 per cent below the levels that were seen in 1990 by 2050 then clearly this sector is an obvious focus for a new approach.
Innovation in new materials will greatly help city planners, developers and builders to construct a zero-carbon world from the foundations up.
Reducing concrete emissions
An obvious candidate is putting graphene in concrete. According to Chatham House, the international affairs institute, the global production of cement - the 'glue' that holds concrete together - accounts for a staggering eight per cent of the world's CO- production.
Recent experiments with graphene enhanced concrete have been really promising. My colleague Adrian Nixon, the editor of the Nixene Journal (an independent publication dedicated to graphene and 2D materials science news), has conducted a review of the various studies on adding tiny amounts of graphene and graphene oxide to concrete.
Adrian's review revealed that the addition of just 0.03 per cent graphene powder increased the strength of concrete by a conservative average of 25 per cent.
So, bearing in mind cement production's proportion of global CO- emissions, it could therefore be argued that by delivering a 25 per cent efficiency for concrete production through the addition of graphene, we could in turn see this run through the supply chain and potentially deliver a two per cent reduction in worldwide CO- levels.
That is an exciting proposition and one that could be debated at great length - but the essential point is this: by adding a modest amount of graphene to a building material such as concrete, we can expect a transformational impact on our environment.
More
https://www.azom.com/news.aspx?newsID=55102
Another weekend and another week closer to the Biden Bonanza of trillions of “free” peoples money. Biden voters have great expectations for the Biden Bonanza, but can Sleepy Joe live up to those great expectations? After months and months of no billionaire left behind, it’s soon to be payback time for the left. Have a great weekend everyone.
“Fiat-money! Let the State 'create' money, and make the poor rich, and free them from the bonds of the capitalists! How foolish to forego the opportunity of making everybody rich, and consequently happy, that the State's right to create money gives it! How wrong to forego it simply because this would run counter to the interests of the rich! How wicked of the economists to assert that it is not within the power of the State to create wealth by means of the printing press!- You statesmen want to build railways, and complain of the low state of the exchequer? Well, then, do not beg loans from the capitalists and anxiously calculate whether your railways will bring in enough to enable you to pay interest and amortization on your debt. Create money, and help yourselves.”
Ludwig von Mises, The Theory of Money and Credit
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