Saturday, 17 November 2018

Weekend Update 17/11/2018 A Dismal Weekend.


Baltic Dry Index 1031 +11   Brent Crude 66.76

“China has taken advantage of the United States for many years. Those days are over.”

US Vice President Mike Pence, 17 November 2018

In the good cop bad cop, US trade war tactics against China, it was the US Vice President’s turn to play bad cop today to President Trump’s good cop tactic of yesterday. Other than sowing confusion and stepping up animosity, it’s hard to see where these tactics are heading. China and Russia seem to have coordinated their response at APEC to America’s trade war attacks, which doesn’t bode well for the end of the month meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump.

While US tactics flip flop, China’s attitude seems to be hardening, probably turning into a wait and see policy of what happens next year when President Trump comes under attack from House Democrats.

With 25 percent punitive tariffs on China set to start on January 1st, nothing good for the struggling global economy lies ahead in 2019. China backed by Russia seem to be daring President Trump to bring on a new recession, figuring that as still largely command economies their countries can respond faster and weather any new recession easier than the US and EU economies.

A very risky lose-lose strategy all round. Without a policy change in Washington or Beijing, we are about to trade war ourselves into recession in 2019. Toss in a Brexit now likely headed for a no deal WTO Brexit, and that recession is likely to be severe.

Below, reading for a dismal weekend.

Pence vows no end to tariffs until China bows

November 17, 2018 / 2:47 AM
PORT MORESBY (Reuters) - The United States will not back down from its trade dispute with China, and might even double its tariffs, unless Beijing bows to U.S. demands, Vice President Mike Pence said on Saturday.

In a bluntly worded speech at an Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit in Papua New Guinea, Pence threw down the gauntlet to China on trade and security in the region.

“We have taken decisive action to address our imbalance with China,” Pence declared. “We put tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods, and we could more than double that number.”

“The United States, though, will not change course until China changes its ways.”

The stark warning will likely be unwelcome news to financial markets which had hoped for a thaw in the Sino-U.S. dispute and perhaps even some sort of deal at a G20 meeting later this month in Argentina.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who is not attending the APEC meeting, is due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Argentina.

Pence’s warning on Saturday contrasted with remarks made by Trump on Friday, when he said he may not impose more tariffs after China sent the United States a list of measures it was willing to take to resolve trade tensions.

Trump has imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports to force concessions on a list of demands that would change the terms of trade between the two countries. China has responded with import tariffs on U.S. goods.

---- He also took aim at China’s territorial ambitions in the Pacific and, particularly, Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative to expand land and sea links between Asia, Africa and Europe with billions of dollars in infrastructure investment.

“We don’t offer constricting belts or a one-way road,” said Pence.

While not referring directly to Chinese claims over various disputed waters in the region, Pence said the United States would work to help protect maritime rights.

“We will continue to fly and sail where ever international law allows and our interests demand. Harassment will only strengthen our resolve.”

Just minutes earlier, Xi had spoken at length about his initiative and the need for free trade across the region.

“It is not an exclusive club closed to non-members, nor is it a trap as some people have labeled it,” Xi said of his brainchild project.

He also called protectionism a “shortsighted approach” that was “doomed to fail”.

“History has shown that confrontation, whether in the form of a Cold War, hot war, or trade war will produce no winners,” said Xi.

China's Xi says world growth overshadowed by protectionism

November 17, 2018 / 2:16 AM
PORT MORESBY (Reuters) - Chinese President Xi Jinping warned on Saturday that the shadow of protectionism and unilateralism was hanging over global growth, joining other Asia-Pacific leaders in urging free trade.

“One who chooses to close his door will only cut himself off from the rest of the world and lose his direction,” Xi said at an Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit in Papua New Guinea.

Earlier, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said countries needed to re-evaluate globalisation and economic integration because it was leaving some people behind and fuelling inequality.

Russia warns against protectionism at APEC summit

November 17, 2018 / 1:06 AM
PORT MORESBY (Reuters) - Russian Prime Minister Dimitry Medvedev warned against growing protectionism and argued for clear cut and transparent rules on trade.

Medvedev was speaking in Russian at the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit in Papua New Guinea, where U.S. Vice President Mike Pence is due to speak later about President Donald Trump’s commitment to prosperity, security, and freedom in the Indo-Pacific.

Ex-Trump strategist Bannon says EU is trying to thwart Brexit

November 16, 2018 / 10:42 PM
OXFORD, England (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s former political strategist, Steve Bannon, said on Friday that the European Union was trying to thwart Brexit.

Bannon, a former chairman of the right-wing Breitbart.com website and an architect of Trump’s 2016 election win, has set up a movement to elect right-wing nationalist and populist members in European Parliament elections next May. 

The EU’s elites, he said, did not want Brexit.

“You see what’s happened. They have no intention of letting you guys leave - none. Zero,” Bannon said at the Oxford Union debating society, though he gave no evidence other than saying the EU had made the divorce negotiation difficult.

“They’ve made it as hard as possible, they will continue to make it as hard as possible,” Bannon said.

The United Kingdom is due to leave the EU on March 29, 2019. In the June 23, 2016 EU referendum, 17.4 million voters, or 52 percent, backed Brexit while 16.1 million, or 48 percent, backed staying in the bloc.
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CIA believes Saudi crown prince ordered journalist's killing - sources

November 17, 2018 / 12:22 AM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The CIA believes Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, sources familiar with the matter said on Friday, complicating President Donald Trump’s efforts to preserve ties with a key U.S. ally.

The sources said the CIA had briefed other parts of the U.S. government, including Congress, on its assessment, which contradicts Saudi government assertions that Prince Mohammed was not involved.

The CIA’s finding, first reported by the Washington Post, is the most definitive U.S. assessment to date tying Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler directly to the killing.

Both the White House and the State Department declined to comment.

“The claims in this purported assessment is false,” a spokeswoman for the Saudi Embassy in Washington said in a statement. “We have and continue to hear various theories without seeing the primary basis for these speculations.”

Trump and top officials of his administration have said Saudi Arabia must be held to account for any involvement in Khashoggi’s death, but they have also stressed the importance of the U.S.-Saudi alliance.

---- While the Trump administration on Thursday imposed sanctions on 17 Saudis for their role in Khashoggi’s killing, many lawmakers think the United States should take a tougher stance, and the CIA’s findings are likely to embolden that view.

---- Turkish officials have said the killing was intentional and have been pressuring Saudi Arabia to extradite those responsible to stand trial. An adviser to Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday accused Saudi Arabia of trying to cover up the murder.
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California searches for 1,000 missing in its deadliest fire

November 16, 2018 / 11:31 AM

PARADISE, Calif. (Reuters) - Forensic recovery teams pressed their search for more victims in the flame-ravaged northern California town of Paradise on Friday as authorities sought clues to the fate of about 1,000 people reported missing in the state’s deadliest wildfire on record.

Remains of at least 71 people have been recovered in and around a Sierra foothills hamlet that was home to nearly 27,000 residents before the town, 175 miles (280 km) north of San Francisco, was largely incinerated by the deadly Camp Fire on the night of Nov. 8.

More than a week later, firefighters have managed to carve containment lines around 45 percent of the blaze’s perimeter, up from 35 percent a day earlier, even as the burned landscape grew slightly to 142,000 acres (57,000 hectares).

Besides the toll on human life, property losses from the blaze make it the most destructive in California history, posing the additional challenge of providing long-term shelter for many thousands of displaced residents.

With more than 9,800 homes up in smoke, many refugees from the fire have taken up temporary residence with friends and family, while others have pitched tents or were camping out of their vehicles.

At least 1,100 evacuees were being housed in 14 emergency shelters set up in churches, schools and community centres around the region, with more than 47,000 people in all remaining under evacuation orders, authorities said.

---- On Friday night, Butte County Sheriff Korea Honea said the remains of eight more fire victims were recovered during the day, bringing the death toll to 71. That far surpasses the previous fatality record from a single California wildfire - 29 in the Griffith Park fire of 1933 in Los Angeles.

Honea said the total roster of people unaccounted for had swelled to 1,011 - up from the 630 names posted Thursday night and well more than triple the number counted as missing on Thursday afternoon.
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Finally, what’s wrong with this? Everything.

The Making of the “Big Four” Banking Oligopoly in One Chart

on January 25, 2016 at 9:55 am
---- The “Big Four” retail banks in the United States collectively hold 45% of all customer bank deposits for a total of $4.6 trillion.

The fifth biggest retail bank, U.S. Bancorp, is nothing to sneeze at, either. It’s got 3,151 banking offices and employs 65,000 people. However, it still pales in comparison with the Big Four, holding only a mere $271 billion in deposits.

Today’s visualization looks at consolidation in the banking industry over the course of two decades. Between 1990 and 2010, eventually 37 banks would become JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.

Of particular importance to note is the frequency of consolidation during the 2008 Financial Crisis, when the Big Four were able to gobble up weaker competitors that were overexposed to subprime mortgages. Washington Mutual, Bear Stearns, Countrywide Financial, Merrill Lynch, and Wachovia were all acquired during this time under great duress.

The Big Four is not likely to be challenged anytime soon. In fact, the Federal Reserve has noted in a 2014 paper that the number of new bank charters has basically dropped to zero.
More +chart.

Since the global financial crisis and recession of 2007-2009, criticism of the economics profession has intensified. The failure of all but a few professional economists to forecast the episode - the aftereffects of which still linger - has led many to question whether the economics profession contributes anything significant to society.

Robert J. Shiller

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October.

DJIA: 25,116 +176 Down. NASDAQ: 7,306 +232 Down. SP500: 2,712 +146 Down. All three slow indexes went sharply down in October, suggesting there’s more of the correction to come.

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