Baltic Dry Index 1031 +11 Brent
Crude 66.76
“China
has taken advantage of the United States for many years. Those days are over.”
US Vice President Mike Pence, 17 November 2018
In the good cop bad
cop, US trade war tactics against China, it was the US Vice President’s turn to
play bad cop today to President Trump’s good cop tactic of yesterday. Other
than sowing confusion and stepping up animosity, it’s hard to see where these
tactics are heading. China and Russia seem to have coordinated their response at
APEC to America’s trade war attacks, which doesn’t bode well for the end of the
month meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump.
While US tactics flip
flop, China’s attitude seems to be hardening, probably turning into a wait and
see policy of what happens next year when President Trump comes under attack
from House Democrats.
With 25 percent
punitive tariffs on China set to start on January 1st, nothing good
for the struggling global economy lies ahead in 2019. China backed by Russia
seem to be daring President Trump to bring on a new recession, figuring that as
still largely command economies their countries can respond faster and weather
any new recession easier than the US and EU economies.
A very risky lose-lose
strategy all round. Without a policy change in Washington or Beijing, we are
about to trade war ourselves into recession in 2019. Toss in a Brexit now likely
headed for a no deal WTO Brexit, and that recession is likely to be severe.
Below, reading for a
dismal weekend.
Pence vows no end to tariffs until China bows
November
17, 2018 / 2:47 AM
PORT
MORESBY (Reuters) - The United States will not back down from its trade dispute
with China, and might even double its tariffs, unless Beijing bows to U.S.
demands, Vice President Mike Pence said on Saturday.
In a bluntly
worded speech at an Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit in Papua
New Guinea, Pence threw down the gauntlet to China on trade and security in the
region.
“We have
taken decisive action to address our imbalance with China,” Pence declared. “We
put tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods, and we could more than double
that number.”
“The United
States, though, will not change course until China changes its ways.”
The stark
warning will likely be unwelcome news to financial markets which had hoped for
a thaw in the Sino-U.S. dispute and perhaps even some sort of deal at a G20
meeting later this month in Argentina.
U.S.
President Donald Trump, who is not attending the APEC meeting, is due to meet
Chinese President Xi Jinping in Argentina.
Pence’s
warning on Saturday contrasted with remarks made by Trump on Friday, when he
said he may not impose more tariffs after China sent the United States a list
of measures it was willing to take to resolve trade tensions.
Trump has
imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports to force concessions
on a list of demands that would change the terms of trade between the two
countries. China has responded with import tariffs on U.S. goods.
---- He also took aim at China’s territorial ambitions in the Pacific and, particularly, Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative to expand land and sea links between Asia, Africa and Europe with billions of dollars in infrastructure investment.
“We don’t
offer constricting belts or a one-way road,” said Pence.
While not
referring directly to Chinese claims over various disputed waters in the
region, Pence said the United States would work to help protect maritime
rights.
“We will
continue to fly and sail where ever international law allows and our interests
demand. Harassment will only strengthen our resolve.”
Just minutes
earlier, Xi had spoken at length about his initiative and the need for free
trade across the region.
“It is not
an exclusive club closed to non-members, nor is it a trap as some people have
labeled it,” Xi said of his brainchild project.
He also
called protectionism a “shortsighted approach” that was “doomed to fail”.
“History has
shown that confrontation, whether in the form of a Cold War, hot war, or trade
war will produce no winners,” said Xi.
China's Xi says world growth overshadowed by protectionism
November 17, 2018 / 2:16 AM
PORT MORESBY
(Reuters) - Chinese President Xi Jinping warned on Saturday that the shadow of
protectionism and unilateralism was hanging over global growth, joining other
Asia-Pacific leaders in urging free trade.
“One who
chooses to close his door will only cut himself off from the rest of the world
and lose his direction,” Xi said at an Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation
(APEC) summit in Papua New Guinea.
Earlier,
Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said countries needed to re-evaluate
globalisation and economic integration because it was leaving some people
behind and fuelling inequality.
Russia warns against protectionism at APEC summit
November 17, 2018 / 1:06 AM
PORT MORESBY
(Reuters) - Russian Prime Minister Dimitry Medvedev warned against growing
protectionism and argued for clear cut and transparent rules on trade.
Medvedev was
speaking in Russian at the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit in
Papua New Guinea, where U.S. Vice President Mike Pence is due to speak later
about President Donald Trump’s commitment to prosperity, security, and freedom
in the Indo-Pacific.
Ex-Trump strategist Bannon says EU is trying to thwart Brexit
November 16, 2018 / 10:42 PM
OXFORD,
England (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s former political strategist,
Steve Bannon, said on Friday that the European Union was trying to thwart
Brexit.
Bannon, a
former chairman of the right-wing Breitbart.com website and an architect of
Trump’s 2016 election win, has set up a movement to elect right-wing
nationalist and populist members in European Parliament elections next May.
The EU’s
elites, he said, did not want Brexit.
“You see
what’s happened. They have no intention of letting you guys leave - none.
Zero,” Bannon said at the Oxford Union debating society, though he gave no
evidence other than saying the EU had made the divorce negotiation difficult.
“They’ve
made it as hard as possible, they will continue to make it as hard as
possible,” Bannon said.
The United
Kingdom is due to leave the EU on March 29, 2019. In the June 23, 2016 EU
referendum, 17.4 million voters, or 52 percent, backed Brexit while 16.1
million, or 48 percent, backed staying in the bloc.
More
CIA believes Saudi crown prince ordered journalist's killing - sources
November
17, 2018 / 12:22 AM
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - The CIA believes Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the
killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, sources familiar with the
matter said on Friday, complicating President Donald Trump’s efforts to
preserve ties with a key U.S. ally.
The sources
said the CIA had briefed other parts of the U.S. government, including
Congress, on its assessment, which contradicts Saudi government assertions that
Prince Mohammed was not involved.
The CIA’s
finding, first reported by the Washington Post, is the most definitive U.S.
assessment to date tying Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler directly to the killing.
Both the
White House and the State Department declined to comment.
“The claims
in this purported assessment is false,” a spokeswoman for the Saudi Embassy in
Washington said in a statement. “We have and continue to hear various theories
without seeing the primary basis for these speculations.”
Trump and
top officials of his administration have said Saudi Arabia must be held to
account for any involvement in Khashoggi’s death, but they have also stressed
the importance of the U.S.-Saudi alliance.
---- While the Trump
administration on Thursday imposed sanctions on 17 Saudis for their role in
Khashoggi’s killing, many lawmakers think the United States should take a
tougher stance, and the CIA’s findings are likely to embolden that view.
---- Turkish officials
have said the killing was intentional and have been pressuring Saudi Arabia to
extradite those responsible to stand trial. An adviser to Turkish President
Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday accused Saudi Arabia of trying to cover up the
murder.
More
California searches for 1,000 missing in its deadliest fire
November
16, 2018 / 11:31 AM
PARADISE,
Calif. (Reuters) - Forensic recovery teams pressed their search for more
victims in the flame-ravaged northern California town of Paradise on Friday as
authorities sought clues to the fate of about 1,000 people reported missing in
the state’s deadliest wildfire on record.
Remains
of at least 71 people have been recovered in and around a Sierra foothills
hamlet that was home to nearly 27,000 residents before the town, 175 miles (280
km) north of San Francisco, was largely incinerated by the deadly Camp Fire on
the night of Nov. 8.
More than a
week later, firefighters have managed to carve containment lines around 45
percent of the blaze’s perimeter, up from 35 percent a day earlier, even as the
burned landscape grew slightly to 142,000 acres (57,000 hectares).
Besides the
toll on human life, property losses from the blaze make it the most destructive
in California history, posing the additional challenge of providing long-term
shelter for many thousands of displaced residents.
With more
than 9,800 homes up in smoke, many refugees from the fire have taken up
temporary residence with friends and family, while others have pitched tents or
were camping out of their vehicles.
At least
1,100 evacuees were being housed in 14 emergency shelters set up in churches,
schools and community centres around the region, with more than 47,000 people
in all remaining under evacuation orders, authorities said.
---- On Friday night, Butte County Sheriff Korea Honea said the remains of eight more fire victims were recovered during the day, bringing the death toll to 71. That far surpasses the previous fatality record from a single California wildfire - 29 in the Griffith Park fire of 1933 in Los Angeles.
Honea said the total roster of people unaccounted for had swelled to 1,011 - up from the 630 names posted Thursday night and well more than triple the number counted as missing on Thursday afternoon.
More
Finally, what’s wrong
with this? Everything.
The Making of the “Big Four” Banking Oligopoly in One Chart
on January 25, 2016 at 9:55 am
---- The “Big Four” retail banks in the United States collectively hold 45%
of all customer bank deposits for a total of $4.6 trillion.The fifth biggest retail bank, U.S. Bancorp, is nothing to sneeze at, either. It’s got 3,151 banking offices and employs 65,000 people. However, it still pales in comparison with the Big Four, holding only a mere $271 billion in deposits.
Today’s visualization looks at consolidation in the banking industry over the course of two decades. Between 1990 and 2010, eventually 37 banks would become JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
Of particular importance to note is the frequency of consolidation during the 2008 Financial Crisis, when the Big Four were able to gobble up weaker competitors that were overexposed to subprime mortgages. Washington Mutual, Bear Stearns, Countrywide Financial, Merrill Lynch, and Wachovia were all acquired during this time under great duress.
The Big Four is not likely to be challenged anytime soon. In fact, the Federal Reserve has noted in a 2014 paper that the number of new bank charters has basically dropped to zero.
More +chart.
Since the global financial
crisis and recession of 2007-2009, criticism of the economics profession has
intensified. The failure of all but a few professional economists to forecast
the episode - the aftereffects of which still linger - has led many to question
whether the economics profession contributes anything significant to society.
Robert J. Shiller
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October.
DJIA: 25,116 +176 Down. NASDAQ:
7,306 +232 Down. SP500: 2,712 +146 Down. All three slow indexes went sharply down in
October, suggesting there’s more of the correction to come.
No comments:
Post a Comment