Friday, 9 November 2018

Oil Shock Coming.


Baltic Dry Index. 1231 -73   Brent Crude 69.17

Today, due to a power cut, thank you SSE, a shortened update. With Washington determined to undo the petro-dollar, an oil shock appears likely shortly ahead. Time to fill up the cars, vans and trucks, Washington’s oil shock is all to likely to wreak havoc in global markets, probably crashing the EUSSR. Take advantage of what will probably just be temporary oil price weakness as we head into winter.

Ominously, the Baltic Dry Index is sinking fast.

Exclusive - Russia clashes with Western oil buyers over new deals as sanctions loom

November 9, 2018 / 6:07 AM
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian energy majors are putting pressure on Western oil buyers to use euros instead of dollars for payments and introducing penalty clauses in contracts as Moscow seeks protection against possible new U.S. sanctions.

Seven industry sources told Reuters that Western oil majors and trading houses have clashed with Russia’s third and fourth biggest producers, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, over 2019 oil sales contract terms during unusually tough annual renegotiation in recent weeks.

The development mirrors a similar stand-off between Western buyers and Russia’s top oil producer, Rosneft (ROSN.MM).

Earlier this week, trading sources told Reuters that Rosneft wants Western oil buyers to pay penalties from 2019 if they fail to pay for supplies in the event that new U.S. sanctions disrupt sales.

Now sources have told Reuters that Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft have also clashed with their buyers over penalties and the use of euros and other currencies to replace the dollar in contracts.

“It is part of the same trend - the Russian oil industry is working on mitigating new sanctions risks. The buyers in turn argue they cannot carry those risks so we are trying to find compromises,” said one source with a Western buyer involved in negotiations, asking not to be named as the talks are confidential.

Russia has been under U.S. and EU sanctions since 2014 when it invaded Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. The sanctions have been repeatedly widened to include new companies and sectors, making it tough for Russian oil firms to borrow money abroad, raise new capital or develop Arctic and unconventional deposits.

President Vladimir Putin’s administration has been hoping for a thaw in relations with the United States since President Donald Trump came to power but Washington has imposed new sanctions instead, including on some of Russia’s richest people.

Russian businesses are preparing for a new wave of sanctions expected in the coming weeks. The firms are trying to diversify away from dollar payments and tapping Asia for more of their financing and technology needs.

According to four industry sources, Surgutneftegaz asked buyers to be prepared to switch from dollar to euro payments in contracts, and insisted on buyers being effectively responsible for any losses arising from sanctions.

“They basically said - sanctions don’t matter. Buyers have to find a way to pay, or to return purchased goods, or pay penalties,” a source with a big trading house said.

Gazprom Neft has also asked buyers to use euros in payments and bear financial responsibility for contract breaches in the case of new sanctions, according to three sources.

---- Russia supplies over 10 percent of global oil, so drastic sanctions against it could lead to a steep spike in oil prices.

All global oil majors rely on Russia to feed their refineries, especially in Europe and Asia, and hence they cannot just walk away from annual contract negotiations if they are unhappy with terms.
More
 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Another day, another bankster in trouble. Why do these criminal enterprises still have banking licences? To big to fail or jail.

UBS faces new legal battle in U.S. over mortgage securities

November 8, 2018 / 8:41 AM
NEW YORK/ZURICH (Reuters) - UBS Group AG (UBSG.S), Switzerland’s largest bank, faces another potentially costly legal battle as the U.S. Department of Justice draws up civil charges over the sale of mortgage-backed securities in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis.

UBS said on Wednesday it expected to be sued by the Justice Department as early as Thursday. The bank said the claims were not supported by the facts or the law and it would contest any complaint vigorously.

Analysts at Zuercher Kantonalbank said it was unclear how long the U.S. legal case might last and that it was hard to estimate what size fine UBS might face.

“It strikes us as important, though, that the matter is brought to a quick conclusion so that clarity prevails,” it said in a research note, keeping its “market weight” recommendation.

The analysts said they thought more than half of the 1.2 billion Swiss francs ($1.20 billion) UBS has set aside for non-core legal risks was dedicated to the U.S. case.

UBS said in its statement on Wednesday it expected the DOJ to seek unspecified monetary penalties stemming from mortgage securities which date back to 2006 and 2007.

---- The potential U.S. action is one of the last that deals with alleged misconduct in the sale and pooling of mortgage securities which helped to cause the financial crisis.

Vontobel analysts said UBS’s relatively modest role in the mortgage-backed securities market stood in stark contrast to that of rival banks which had already settled with U.S. authorities.

The DOJ has settled similar claims with Citigroup Inc (C.N), Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Credit Suisse Group (CSGN.S), Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) and Barclays Plc (BARC.L).

---- UBS originated $1.5 billion of U.S. residential mortgages in a $5 trillion market and lost more than $45 billion when the housing market collapsed, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters.

In a court case in France, which UBS has chosen not settle, the bank is fighting money laundering and tax fraud charges over allegations it helped wealthy clients avoid taxes in France. UBS denies the charges.

If found guilty of money laundering, UBS could be fined up to 5 billion euros ($5.71 billion). It could also face damages awarded to the French taxman for the missing revenue, while its executives risk jail time.

The French state has asked for 1.6 billion euros in damages, which UBS has called excessive.

During the French investigation, UBS turned down a settlement offer of 1.1 billion euros made by the authorities, judicial sources have said.

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Graphene takes a step towards renewable fuel

Date: November 7, 2018

Source: Linköping University

Summary: Researchers are working to develop a method to convert water and carbon dioxide to the renewable energy of the future, using the energy from the sun and graphene applied to the surface of cubic silicon carbide. They have now taken an important step towards this goal, and developed a method that makes it possible to produce graphene with several layers in a tightly controlled process.

The research group has also shown that graphene acts as a superconductor in certain conditions. Their results have been published in the scientific journals Carbon and Nano Letters.

Carbon, oxygen and hydrogen. These are the three elements you would get if you took apart molecules of carbon dioxide and water. The same elements are the building blocks of chemical substances that we use for fuel, such as ethanol and methane. The conversion of carbon dioxide and water to renewable fuel, if possible, would provide an alternative to fossil fuels, and contribute to reducing our emission of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Jianwu Sun, senior lecturer at Linköping University, is trying to find a way to do just that.

The first step is to develop the material they plan to use. Researchers at Linköping University have previously developed a world-leading method to produce cubic silicon carbide, which consists of silicon and carbon. The cubic form has the ability to capture energy from the sun and create charge carriers. This is, however, not sufficient. Graphene, one of the thinnest materials ever produced, plays a key role in the project. The material comprises a single layer of carbon atoms bound to each other in a hexagonal lattice. Graphene has a high ability to conduct an electric current, a property that would be useful for solar energy conversion. It also has several unique properties, and possible uses of graphene are being extensively studied all over the world.

In recent years, the researchers have attempted to improve the process by which graphene grows on a surface in order to control the properties of the graphene. Their recent progress is described in an article in the scientific journal Carbon.

"It is relatively easy to grow one layer of graphene on silicon carbide. But it's a greater challenge to grow large-area uniform graphene that consists of several layers on top of each other. We have now shown that it is possible to grow uniform graphene that consists of up to four layers in a controlled manner," says Jianwu Sun, of the Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology at Linköping University.

One of the difficulties posed by multilayer graphene is that the surface becomes uneven when different numbers of layers grow at different locations. The edge when one layer ends has the form of a tiny, nanoscale, staircase. For the researchers, who want large flat areas, these steps are a problem. It is particularly problematic when steps collect in one location, like a wrongly built staircase in which several steps have been united to form one large step. The researchers have now found a way to remove these united large steps by growing the graphene at a carefully controlled temperature. Furthermore, the researchers have shown that their method makes it possible to control how many layers the graphene will contain. This is the first key step in an ongoing research project whose goal is to make fuel from water and carbon dioxide.

In a closely related article in the journal Nano Letters, the researchers describe investigations into the electronic properties of multilayer graphene grown on cubic silicon carbide.

----Theoretical calculations had predicted that multilayer graphene would have superconductive properties, provided that the layers are arranged in a particular way. In the new study, the researchers demonstrate experimentally for the first time that this is the case. Superconducting materials are used in, among other things, superconducting magnets -- extremely powerful magnets found in magnet resonance cameras for medical investigations, and in particle accelerators for research. There are many potential areas of application for superconductors, such as electrical supply lines with zero energy loss, and high-speed trains that float on a magnetic field. Their use is currently limited by the inability to produce superconductors that function at room temperature: currently available superconductors function only at extremely low temperatures.

Another weekend and a post mortem on the US elections. How did the Democrats manage to virtually blow it?  What happened to their much touted tidal wave?  Have a great weekend everyone. Normal service at the weekend.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October.

DJIA: 25,116 +176 Down. NASDAQ: 7,306 +232 Down. SP500: 2,712 +146 Down. All three slow indexes went sharply down in October, suggesting there’s more of the correction to come.

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