Baltic Dry Index. 1008 +05 Brent Crude 63.12
Come November, the American
people will have the chance to re-declare their independence. Americans will
have a chance to vote for trade, immigration and foreign policies that put our
citizens first. They will have the chance to reject today's rule by the global
elite, and to embrace real change that delivers a government of, by and for the
people.
Donald Trump
With US markets
closed today for their Thanksgiving Day holiday, US stock markets stabilised yesterday,
if unconvincingly. Asian markets are
pausing this morning too, although nothing has actually changed.
What happens next
largely depends on two things. Has the recent stock market plunge and signs of
a slowing global economy been enough to force President Trump to call off his
trade war on the rest of the world and more specifically China. Has the recent
stock market carnage been enough to force the US central bank to stop raising
interest rates.
If the answer to both
is yes, stocks should get a wobbly year end rally. If no, our scary elevator
ride will lurch down again. Heads or tails?
But what if it’s a
yes and no? Trump, after meeting
President Xi next week calls off his 25 percent punitive China tariffs due to
come in on January 1st, but the Federal Reserve carries on raising
interest rates in December and across 2019?
My guess, a weak year
end exit rally, followed by a black hole called 2019.
Below, enough carnage
for this week?
Asian shares fragile as growth worries sap confidence
November 22, 2018 / 12:48 AM / Updated 41
minutes ago
SYDNEY
(Reuters) - Asian shares seesawed in cautious trading on Thursday with China
extending losses as investors fretted about slowing global growth in the face
of rising U.S. interest rates and trade tensions.
U.S. stock futures also briefly pulled down after a bounce in Wall
Street overnight, underscoring fragile investor sentiment following a rout in
October and steep sell-offs in recent sessions.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan momentarily
turned lower after earlier rising about 0.2 percent. It was last up 0.1
percent. The index has so far managed to hold up in November after three
straight monthly declines, but is on track for its worst annual performance
since 2011.
Japan’s Nikkei was also off morning highs to be up 0.4 percent. Chinese
shares were in the red after opening higher, with the blue-chip index falling
0.8 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped 0.1 percent.
“This was a half-hearted rally to start with,” said Shane Oliver,
Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP.
“Investors are still wary about whether they’ll see further lows given
none of the issues that drove the recent correction have dissipated.”
The
bitter Sino-U.S. trade war remains the biggest concern for markets, with signs
of weakening corporate profits, steep sell-off in tech stocks and rising U.S.
interest rates encouraging investors to take money off the table before
year-end.
“And that’s all tying in to worries about the global economy,” Oliver
added.
Singapore warned earlier on Thursday that trade frictions will likely
hurt economic growth in the city state, widely seen as a bellwether for
international trade and investment.
More
OECD warns of global slowdown
21 November 2018 - 12H13
PARIS (AFP) - The global economy has peaked and faces a
slowdown driven by international trade tensions and tighter monetary conditions,
the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development warned Wednesday.
The OECD, which groups the top developed economies, said it had trimmed
its growth forecast for 2019 to 3.5 percent from the previous 3.7 percent.
The 2018 estimate was left unchanged at 3.7 percent.
For 2020, the global economy should grow 3.5 percent, it said in its
latest Economic Outlook report.
"The shakier outlook in 2019 reflects deteriorating prospects,
principally in emerging markets such as Turkey, Argentina and Brazil," it
said.
"The further slowdown in 2020 is more a reflection of developments
in advanced economies as slower trade and lower fiscal and monetary support
take their toll."
OECD chief Angel Gurria highlighted problems caused by trade conflicts
and political uncertainty -- an apparent reference to US President Donald
Trump's stand-off with China which has roiled the markets.
"We urge policy-makers to help restore confidence in the
international rules-based trading system," Gurria said in a statement.
Trade tensions have already shaved 0.1-0.2 percentage points off global
GDP this year, the Economic Outlook report said.
If Washington were to hike tariffs to 25 percent on all Chinese imports
-- as Trump has threatened to do -- world economic growth could fall to close
to three percent in 2020.
Growth rates would drop by an estimated 0.8
percent in the US and by 0.6 percent in China, it added.
More
Italian economy to grow 1.3% in 2019, agency says
21 November 2018 - 11H28
ROME (AFP) -
The Italian economy is forecast to grow 1.3 percent next year, the
national statistics agency said Wednesday, below the government's estimate of
1.5 percent included in a big-spending budget rejected by Brussels.
ISTAT said growth this year will come in at a slower 1.1 percent but
added that unemployment could improve slightly in both years.
"These projections take into account the less favourable
international framework and the expansionary fiscal policies" of the
budget, ISTAT cautioned in a statement.
With the financial markets in turmoil, there has been increasing concern
that the global economy is slowing.
Italy's populist government has argued that after years of failed
austerity policies, it is time to stimulate the economy to offer Italians some
respite and hope for the future.
Rome has submitted to the European Union a 2019 budget based on a public
deficit of 2.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2019 -- three times the
target of the government's centre-left predecessor -- and one of 2.1 percent in
2020.
But Brussels says this will only increase Italy's overall debt, with the
deficit hitting 2.9 percent of GDP in 2019 and 3.1 percent in 2020 -- breaching
the EU's 3.0 percent limit.
The EU says the government must do the sums again, but Rome insists it
will not change and that the EU should instead adopt its expansionary stance.
More
In trade war news, generally everyone ends up losing. In this
case it’s Tesla losing, Chinese consumers winning,
Tesla cuts China car prices to absorb hit from trade war tariffs
November 22, 2018 / 4:38 AM
BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) is cutting the price of its Model X
and Model S cars in China, the U.S. firm said on Thursday, in a shift in
strategy that will see it take more of a hit from tariffs linked to a biting
trade war between China and the United States.
The electric carmaker, led by billionaire
CEO Elon Musk, said it will cut prices of the two models by 12-26 percent to
make the cars more “affordable” in the world’s top auto market, where sales of
so-called new-energy vehicles are rising fast.
The move comes amid severe trade tensions between China and the United
States, which has seen extra tariffs slapped on U.S. imports into the country,
including automobiles, hurting Tesla which imports all the cars it currently
sells in the market.
“We are absorbing a significant part of the tariff to help make our cars
more affordable for customers in China,” Tesla said in a statement sent to
Reuters.
The move marks a shift from July when Tesla was one of the first U.S.
carmakers to raise prices in the market in response to tariffs. The firm hiked
prices then on its Model X and S cars by about 20 percent.
Tesla warned last month it was facing major problems with selling cars
in China due to new tariffs that would force it to accelerate investment in its
first overseas Gigafactory in Shanghai.
The carmaker last month secured the site for the facility, which will
help it avoid steep import tariffs.
More
Finally, the PG&E
mess could get a whole lot messier yet.
If Wildfires Drive PG&E Into Bankruptcy, What Happens to Renewable Energy Contracts?
Credit Suisse sees a long-shot threat to solar and wind PPAs if bankruptcy leads to contracts being renegotiated.
Jeff St. JohnNovember 20, 2018
As Pacific Gas & Electric faces the threat of tens of billions of
dollars in wildfire liabilities, energy analysts are starting to ask what might
happen if the utility is forced into bankruptcy — including the effects on its
gigawatts' worth of renewable energy power-purchase agreements.
That’s the question that Credit Suisse analysts Michael Weinstein and
Khanh Nguyen raised in a Monday note, highlighting the potential exposure of
Consolidated Edison and other owners of large-scale solar and wind projects
selling their power to PG&E under long-term power-purchase
agreements. Con Ed in particular could see as much as 10 percent of its
earnings at risk if its PPAs with PG&E are threatened, the analysts
noted.
PG&E is the largest offtaker for Con Ed’s renewable energy portfolio, at about 29 percent of contracts. And the average PPA rate for those projects is about $197 per megawatt-hour, “significantly above market rates for new solar” that are closer to $25-$30 per megawatt-hour, the analysts noted. Other companies that could be impacted include NextEra and NextEra Energy Partners, the analysts wrote.
Of course, for any of these threats to materialize, PG&E would have to file for bankruptcy protection, and the bankruptcy process would have to lead to these PPAs being renegotiated in a way that reduces their revenues and value. And right now, neither of those eventualities is close to certain, Michael Weinstein, utility and alternative energy analyst for Credit Suisse, said in a Tuesday interview.
“Most investors consider this a pretty remote risk — but it was worth discussing,” he said. PG&E had already been facing the threat of bankruptcy due to its possible exposure to liability for last year’s Tubbs Fire in Northern California wine country, as well as smaller fires that state investigators have blamed the utility for starting.
Then, two weeks ago, another deadly fire — the Camp Fire, which has claimed 79 lives with more than 600 people still missing — broke out in PG&E territory. Two days later, PG&E disclosed that it had experienced a transmission system failure near the time and location of the fire’s origin, indicating it may have been the cause of the blaze. PG&E also disclosed that it had considered de-energizing its power lines that day, but decided not to shut them down despite the risk of high winds and dry conditions.
Shares of PG&E took a nosedive last week, after it drew down all $3.1 billion of available cash from its revolving credit facilities. Financial analysts noted that the move could be a precursor to a decision to file for bankruptcy protection, given PG&E’s exposure to as much as $15 billion in wildfire liabilities from last year’s devastating wildfires, and the potential that it could face similar or larger liabilities if it’s found at fault for starting the Camp Fire.
More
In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative
tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly and results
far much less.
John Kenneth Galbraith
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, compare and contrast
President Trump’s treatment of Canada’s Justin Trudeau with Saudi Arabia’s
Crown Prince Mohammad. America has lost its moral compass for now. Turkey’s
intelligence services have President Trump and his best buddy MbS over a barrel
and don’t they know it. To Erdogan, it’s simply Trump payback time.
Turkey accuses U.S. of turning blind eye to Saudi killing of Khashoggi
November 21, 2018 / 10:47 AM
ISTANBUL
(Reuters) - Turkey accused the United States on Wednesday of trying to turn a
blind eye to the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, and
dismissed comments from President Donald Trump on the issue as “comic”.
Trump
vowed on Tuesday to remain a “steadfast partner” of Saudi Arabia, despite
saying that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may have known about the
plan to murder to Khashoggi, a U.S. resident and Washington Post columnist.
Of the possibility Prince Mohammed had a hand in the murder, Trump said:
“Maybe he did, maybe he didn’t”. His comments contradicted the CIA, which
believes Khashoggi’s death was ordered directly by the crown prince, Saudi
Arabia’s de facto ruler.
Numan Kurtulmus, the deputy chairman of President Tayyip Erdogan’s AK
Party, dismissed Trump’s assessment. “Yesterday’s statement is a comic
statement,” he told state broadcaster TRT Haber.
“It is not possible for an intelligence agency such as the CIA, which
even knows the colour of the fur on the cat walking around the Saudi
consulate’s garden ... to not know who gave this order,” he said. “This is not
credible either for U.S. public opinion or the world public opinion.”
Since Khashoggi’s killing at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul last month,
Turkey has repeatedly said the order came from the “highest levels” of the
Saudi government, although it has not directly accused Prince Mohammed.
Saudi Arabia has denied that the crown prince ordered the killing. After
offering numerous contradictory explanations, Riyadh said last week Khashoggi
had been killed and his body dismembered when “negotiations” to persuade him to
return to Saudi Arabia failed.
Trump said Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer, was an important business
partner and a “great ally” in the fight against Iranian power in the Middle
East.
Following a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in
Washington, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Ankara is not
entirely satisfied with the level of cooperation it is receiving from Saudi
Arabia regarding the case.
Cavusoglu said Ankara may seek a formal United Nations inquiry if its
liaising with Riyadh comes to an impasse.
Nothing is so admirable in politics as a short memory.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Explaining the plummeting cost of solar power
Researchers uncover the
factors that have caused photovoltaic module costs to drop by 99 percent.
David L. Chandler | MIT News Office November
20, 2018 The dramatic drop in the cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules, which has fallen by 99 percent over the last four decades, is often touted as a major success story for renewable energy technology. But one question has never been fully addressed: What exactly accounts for that stunning drop?
A new analysis by MIT researchers has pinpointed what caused the savings, including the policies and technology changes that mattered most. For example, they found that government policy to help grow markets around the world played a critical role in reducing this technology’s costs. At the device level, the dominant factor was an increase in “conversion efficiency,” or the amount of power generated from a given amount of sunlight.
The insights can help to inform future policies and evaluate whether similar improvements can be achieved in other technologies. The findings are being reported today in the journal Energy Policy, in a paper by MIT Associate Professor Jessika Trancik, postdoc Goksin Kavlak, and research scientist James McNerney.
The team looked at the technology-level (“low-level”) factors that have affected cost by changing the modules and manufacturing process. Solar cell technology has improved greatly; for example, the cells have become much more efficient at converting sunlight to electricity. Factors like this, Trancik explains, fall in a category of low-level mechanisms that deal with the physical products themselves.
The team also estimated the cost impacts of “high-level” mechanisms, including learning by doing, research and development, and economies of scale. Examples include the way improved production processes have cut the number of defective cells produced and thus improved yields, and the fact that much larger factories have led to significant economies of scale.
More
http://news.mit.edu/2018/explaining-dropping-solar-cost-1120
Have a great Thanksgiving Day holiday to all celebrating it today, in truth we have so much to be thankful to God for.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October.
DJIA: 25,116 +176 Down. NASDAQ:
7,306 +232 Down. SP500: 2,712 +146 Down. All three slow indexes went sharply down in
October, suggesting there’s more of the correction to come.
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