Baltic Dry Index. 1031 +11 Brent Crude 67.31
To our good and
loyal subjects: After pondering deeply the general trends of the world
and the actual conditions obtaining in our empire today, we have decided to
effect a settlement of the present situation by resorting to an extraordinary
measure.
We have ordered
our Government to communicate to the Governments of the United States, Great
Britain, China and the Soviet Union that our empire accepts the provisions of
their joint declaration.
To strive for
the common prosperity and happiness of all nations as well as the security and
well-being of our subjects is the solemn obligation which has been handed down
by our imperial ancestors and which we lay close to the heart.
Indeed, we
declared war on America and Britain out of our sincere desire to insure Japan's
self-preservation and the stabilization of East Asia, it being far from our
thought either to infringe upon the sovereignty of other nations or to embark
upon territorial aggrandizement.
Emperor Hirohito, Accepting the Potsdam Declaration, Radio Broadcast.
Transmitted by Domei and Recorded by the Federal Communications Commission, 14 August 1945
In what looked
incredibly like an EUSSR “Great Leaders” acrimonious meeting, the leaders of
APEC, minus President’s Trump and Putin, came and met in Papua New Guinea,
bickered and disagreed. US Vice
President Pence went all ballistic on China and China responded by sinking the
US trialled final communique. Add a new
cold war to President Trump’s trade war on the rest of the world. A Hirohito
ending lies some way off, after a new recession, probably.
Apart from the
setting of a tropical island at the back of beyond, that few outside of
Australia can find on the globe, it was almost exactly like attending EUSSR
meetings in Brussels. Wonderful stuff. Diplomacy is certainly more exciting
under President Trump, although whether it produces any better results than
President G. W. Bush and President Obama’s more laid back, war like approach
remains to be seen.
The main result so
far seems to be a slowdown in global manufacturing, and possibly a looming
global recession right ahead once the USA imposes 25 percent punitive tariffs
on China starting January 1. Given all the APEC nastiness, there doesn’t seem
much wiggle room for President Trump or President Xi to back down
Below, nervous Asian
markets await today’s developments.
Stocks turn mixed, dollar faces rate hike uncertainty
November 19, 2018 / 12:44 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Share markets turned mixed in Asia on Monday amid
conflicting signals on the prospects for a truce in the Sino-U.S. trade
dispute, while the Federal Reserve’s newly-found concerns over the global
economy constrained the dollar.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS dithered either side of flat through a sluggish session. Chinese blue chips .CSI300 manage to add 0.5 percent, as did Japan's Nikkei .N225.
But E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 slipped 0.36 percent and spread betters pointed to modest opening losses for the major European bourses.
Wall Street had firmed on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said that he may not impose more tariffs on Chinese goods after Beijing sent a list of measures it was willing to take to resolve trade tensions.
The comment stoked speculation of a deal when Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of a G20 summit in Argentina later this month.
However, Sino-U.S. tensions were clearly on display at an APEC meeting in Papua New Guinea over the weekend, where leaders failed to agree on a communique for the first time ever.
More
APEC fails to reach consensus as U.S.-China divide deepens
November 18, 2018 / 1:06 AM
PORT MORESBY (Reuters) - Asia-Pacific
leaders failed to agree on a communique at a summit in Papua New Guinea on
Sunday for the first time in their history as deep divisions between the United
States and China over trade and investment stymied cooperation.
Competition between the United States and China over the Pacific was
also thrown into focus with the United States and its Western allies launching
a coordinated response to China’s Belt and Road programme.
“You know the two big giants in the room,” Papua New Guinea (PNG) Prime
Minister Peter O’Neill said at a closing news conference, when asked which of
the 21 members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) group could not
agree.
O’Neill, who was chairman of the meeting, said the sticking point was
over whether mention of the World Trade Organization and its possible reform
should be in the Leaders’ Declaration.
“APEC has got no charter over World Trade Organization, that is a fact.
Those matters can be raised at the World Trade Organization.”
The multilateral trade order that APEC was established in 1989 to
protect is crumbling as Chinese assertiveness in the Pacific and U.S. tariffs
strain relations in the region and divide loyalties.
A Leaders’ Declaration has been issued after every annual APEC leaders’
meeting since the first in 1993, the group’s website shows.
O’Neill said that as APEC host, he would release a Chairman’s Statement,
though it was not clear when.
U.S. President Donald Trump did not attend the meeting and nor did his
Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
--- Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived to great fanfare on Thursday and was feted by PNG officials. He stoked Western concern on Friday when he met Pacific island leaders to pitch his Belt and Road initiative.
The United States and its allies, Japan, Australia and New Zealand,
countered on Sunday with a $1.7 billion plan to deliver reliable electricity
and the internet to PNG.
More
Pence's Sharp China Attacks Fuel Fears of New Cold War
By Jason Scott, Dandan Li, and Isabel Reynolds
18 November 2018, 08:12 GMT
Since the Soviet Union fell in the early 1990s, Southeast Asia has
sought to avoid getting caught in a fight between major powers. The Trump
administration is making that position look increasingly untenable.
Vice President Mike Pence sharpened U.S. attacks on China during a week
of summits that ended Sunday, most notably with a call for nations to avoid
loans that would leave them indebted to Beijing. He said the U.S. wasn’t in a
rush to end the trade war and would “not change course until China changes its
ways” -- a worrying prospect for a region heavily reliant on exports
.
“The language we heard from Pence is quite
concerning because it shows we’re moving toward a zero-sum game geopolitics in
the Asia-Pacific,” said Jonathan Pryke, a researcher specializing in the
Pacific at the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based research group. “The great hope
of convergence between China and the U.S. is becoming less and less of a likely
reality.”
The meetings in Singapore and Papua New
Guinea produced little to suggest U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese
counterpart Xi Jinping would reach a deal when they meet in a few weeks at the
Group of 20 summit in Argentina. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit ended
in disarray on Sunday after leaders failed to agree on a joint
statement, reflecting tensions after Trump threatened to add to tariffs already
in place on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods. Xi has retaliated with duties
on $110 billion in U.S. imports.
Smaller economies in the Asia-Pacific have
long sought to balance ties, reaping the benefits of trade with China’s
fast-growing economy while relying on American firepower to rein in Beijing’s
assertiveness over disputed territory. Yet the trade war has raised the
prospect that nations will now need to pick sides, particularly as higher U.S.
tariffs threaten to alter long-established supply chains.
Earlier this month, former U.S. Treasury
Secretary Hank Paulson warned of an “Economic
Iron Curtain” dividing the world if the U.S. and China fail to
resolve strategic differences. That could lead both sides to deny each other
technology, capital and investment, reversing decades of gains from
globalization.
More
China says no developing country will fall into debt trap by cooperating with China
November
18, 2018 / 6:21 AM / Updated 5 hours ago
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s foreign
ministry said on Sunday that no developing country would fall into a debt trap
simply because of its cooperation with Beijing.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua
Chunying made the comment in an online statement responding to remarks made by
U.S. Vice President Mike Pence.
“No developing country will fall into debt difficulties because of
cooperation with China,” Hua said.
“On the contrary, cooperating with China helps these countries raise
independent development capabilities and levels, and improves the lives of the
local people.”
Speaking at the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit on
Saturday, Pence took aim at China’s Belt and Road initiative, saying countries
should not accept debt that compromised their sovereignty.
China defers Tonga's loan payments as Pacific nation signs up to Belt and Road
November 18, 2018 / 2:46 AM
PORT MORESBY (Reuters) - Tonga has signed up to China’s Belt and Road
initiative and has received a reprieve from Beijing on the timing of debt
payments shortly before an onerous schedule to repay loans was due to start.
Lopeti Senituli, political advisor to Tongan Prime Minister ‘Akilisi
Pōhiva, told Reuters by email on Sunday that Tonga had signed a Belt and Road
memorandum of understanding, and that the concessional loan had been deferred
for five years.
Tonga is one of eight island nations in the South Pacific that owe
significant debt to China. The deferment came just as Tonga was set to commence
principal repayments on the debt, which is expected to put severe strain on its
finances.
China’s ministry of foreign affairs did not immediately respond to
request for comment on Sunday.
Tonga’s financial reliance on China dates back just over a decade after
deadly riots in the capital of Tonga, Nuku’alofa, destroyed much of the small
Pacific nation’s central business and government districts.
The government rebuilt the city with Chinese financing, and the roughly
$65 million in China’s initial loans to the island now exceeds $115 million,
due to interest and additional borrowings. This represents almost one-third of
Tonga’s annual gross domestic product, budget papers show
The issue of Chinese-issued debt has been at the forefront of the Asia
Pacific Economic Co-operation summit, held in Papua New Guinea (PNG). On
Saturday, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence criticized President Xi Jinping’s flagship
programme, saying countries should not accept debt that compromised their
sovereignty.
While most Pacific island nations are not APEC members, their
representatives were invited to attend events, and have been engaged in talks
with larger regional neighbors such as China and Australia.
China’s official Belt and Road website reported last week that Fiji had
made a commitment to Belt and Road, joining the likes of Samoa and PNG.
China, Japan's U.S. Treasuries holdings fall further in September
November 16, 2018 / 10:06 PM
NEW YORK, Nov 16 (Reuters) - China and Japan, the two biggest foreign
U.S. creditors, cut their U.S. Treasury holdings further in September, as
foreign appetite for Treasuries seemed to be waning due to growing government
borrowing in the bond market, Treasury Department data released on Friday
showed.
China remained the biggest holder of Treasuries with $1.151 trillion in
September, which was the lowest amount since June 2017. The world’s No. 2
economy sold $18.51 billion in Treasuries, the most since October 2016.
Japan, the second biggest foreign U.S. creditor, saw its Treasuries
holdings falling to $1.028 trillion, the lowest since October 2011.
On the other hand, Japan bought $16.07 billion in U.S. government debt
in September, the highest amount since June 2017, Treasury data showed. The
apparent discrepancy between Japan’s purchases and holdings of U.S. Treasuries
stems from separate methods the Treasury uses to track these activities.
The U.S. government has ramped up its Treasury issuance on an expected
increase in the federal deficit in the aftermath of the massive tax cut enacted
last December and the federal spending deal passed in February.
Overall foreigners cut back their holdings of U.S. government debt in
September after making their biggest monthly purchase of Treasuries since June
2015 the month before.
Overseas official and private investors in
total sold $11.539 billion in Treasuries last month, compared with $63.13
billion they bought in August, the data showed.
Private official institutions sold $15.677
billion in Treasuries, while foreign private investors bought $3.827 billion in
U.S. government bonds.
More
Fed’s Evans sees possibility of up to 4 interest-rate hikes in 2019
By Rachel
Koning Beals Published: Nov
16, 2018 3:54 p.m. ET
Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans is sticking with his
projection that interest rates could comfortably run above the so-called
neutral rate, a projection that comes as the stock market widely expects the Fed
to continue with policy tightening well into 2019.
That means the Fed could hike rates up to four times next year, Evans
said Friday at the Fixed-Income Forum in Chicago.
The Fed in November kept its benchmark target for rates unchanged in a
2% to 2.25% range, but a quarter-point December hike remains widely anticipated
by markets as the central bank continues to unwind the extraordinary response
it launched to revive the economy from the financial crisis 10 year ago.
Evans stressed Friday that neutral policy is a “vague” notion. He puts a
neutral Fed-funds rate at 2.75%, but says other Fed members may have a
different idea. And he thinks the Fed-funds rate could conceivably go as high
as 3.25%, or 50 basis points above “neutral,” next year.
The official Fed projection, a survey of differing views at the bank,
chalks out three rate increases next year. Evans said Friday he believes three
or four hikes are most likely in 2019. Evans, who has turned more hawkish than
in the early days of the rate-tightening cycle, takes his turn on the
rotational policy-setting panel in 2019.
As for current policy, the Fed is a little bit short of neutral “but
getting close enough, this is beginning to right-size a number of the risks
we’ve been seeing,” including inflation, said Evans. The neutral rate refers to
the interest rate that neither boosts nor impedes economic expansion.
More
“When a
country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every
country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win."
President Trump.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
In Brexit news, finally reality sets in on continental Europe. Having
made a gross error in refusing to negotiate with Dodgy Dave Cameron on his 2016
European farewell tour, Brexit is now a mere 3 months away, with a disaster looming
for German industry. Disaster looming for Volvo and Renault heavy trucks and
vans. Mercedes, Skoda, Fiat and Seat cars too. Rump EU wines, cheeses, and
dodgy processed meats can also be added to the sinking list too.
On the bright side though, John Bull’s sinking Pound, makes London
Europe’s prime shopping destination in the run up to Christmas, while Edinburgh
will have its greatest tourist Hogmanay in decades. It’s an ill wind and all
that.
“The
Great Depression, like most other periods of severe unemployment, was produced
by government mismanagement rather than by any inherent instability of the
private economy.”
Hard Brexit would be disastrous says German industry
November 17, 2018 / 12:20 PM
BERLIN (Reuters) - Britain crashing out of the European Union without a
divorce deal would have disastrous consequences for companies and workers in
Britain and across Europe, the head of the BDI German Federation of Industry
said on Saturday.
Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May is fighting to defend a draft deal
agreed with the EU but opposition from both within and outside her party has
raised the possibility of a no-deal hard Brexit or even another referendum.
Dieter Kempf told Funke Mediengruppe newspaper chain that a no-deal
Brexit would hit the automotive, aerospace, chemical, pharmaceutical,
engineering and electrical industries particularly hard. But service industries
including banking and tourism would also be affected.
“A hard Brexit would be disastrous,” Kempf said, adding that German
firms should prepare for a no-deal exit of Britain from the European Union.
“It would cause great difficulty for tens of thousands of companies and
hundreds of thousands of workers on both sides of the English Channel,” he
said.
More than two years after the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU, it
is still unclear how, on what terms or even if it will leave as planned on
March 29, 2019.
Opponents of the agreement with the European Union, which still has to
be approved by the British parliament, say it is the worst of both worlds,
leaving the bloc with too much power over Britain while taking away its say in
making the rules.
Kempf said German industry and government should brace for further
uncertainty in coming months.
“I appeal to the lawmakers in the British parliament to be conscious of
their responsibility,” he said. “The ball is in London’s court ... New
negotiations are not the answer.”
“One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by
their intentions rather
than their results.”
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Detecting light in a 'different dimension'
Date:
November 13, 2018
Source:
DOE/Brookhaven National Laboratory
Summary:
Scientists have dramatically improved the response of graphene to light through
self-assembling wire-like nanostructures that conduct electricity.
Scientists from the Center for Functional Nanomaterials (CFN) -- a U.S.
Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science User Facility at Brookhaven
National Laboratory -- have dramatically improved the response of graphene to
light through self-assembling wire-like nanostructures that conduct
electricity. The improvement could pave the way for the development of
graphene-based detectors that can quickly sense light at very low levels, such
as those found in medical imaging, radiation detection, and surveillance
applications.
Graphene is a two-dimensional (2-D) nanomaterial with unusual and useful
mechanical, optical, and electronic properties. It is both extremely thin and
incredibly strong, detects light of almost any color, and conducts heat and
electricity well. However, because graphene is made of sheets of carbon only
one atom thick, it can only absorb a very small amount of incoming light (about
two percent).
One approach to overcoming this problem is to combine graphene with
strong light-absorbing materials, such as organic compounds that conduct
electricity. Scientists recently demonstrated an improved photoresponse by
placing thin films (a few tens of nanometers) of one such conductive polymer,
poly(3-hexylthiophene), or P3HT, on top of a single layer of graphene.
Now, the CFN scientists have improved the photoresponse by an additional
600 percent by changing the morphology (structure) of the polymer. Instead of
thin films, they used a mesh of nanowires -- nanostructures that are many times
longer than they are wide -- made of the same polymer and similar thickness.
The research is described in an article published online on Oct. 12 in ACS
Photonics, a journal of the American Chemical Society (ACS).
---- The scientists have filed a U.S. patent for their fabrication process, and they are excited to explore light-matter interactions in other 2-D -- as well as 0-D and 1-D -- materials.
"Plasmonics and nanophotonics -- the study of light at the
nanometer scale -- are emerging research areas," said Cotlet, who earlier
this year co-organized a workshop for user communities of the CFN and the
National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) -- another DOE Office of Science
User Facility at Brookhaven -- to explore frontiers in these areas.
"Nanostructures can manipulate and control light at the nanoscale in very
interesting ways. The advanced nanofabrication and nanocharacterization tools
at the CFN and NSLS-II are perfectly suited for creating and studying materials
with enhanced optoeletronic properties."
More
“Many
people want the government to protect the consumer. A much more urgent problem
is to protect the consumer from the government.”
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October.
DJIA: 25,116 +176 Down. NASDAQ:
7,306 +232 Down. SP500: 2,712 +146 Down. All three slow indexes went sharply down in
October, suggesting there’s more of the correction to come.
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