Baltic Dry Index. 1009 -55 Brent Crude 65.86
Stocks
take an escalator up and an elevator down.
Wall
Street Saying.
It’s something of a
mixed bag this morning. There’s rising hope that China might reach some sort of
trade deal with the USA, but it won’t be until into next year. Will the USA
postpone its new punitive 25 percent China tariffs due to start on January one?
But with a U.S. congressional
commission saying yesterday that China appears to have relaxed enforcement of
sanctions on North Korea and calling for sanctions on China in response, that
optimism might be misplaced.
The EU warned the USA
yesterday not to impose auto tariffs or face immediate retaliatory tariffs
across the board.
The International
Energy Agency warned yesterday of an oil glut throughout 2019 due to faltering
global demand.
Finally, both Boeing
and Pacific Gas and Electric seem to have blundered badly. Will PG&E have
to file for bankruptcy?
Below, a mixed bag.
Did the elevator just start down?
Asia stocks lifted by China-U.S. trade hopes; oil resumes retreat
November 15, 2018 / 12:53 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose on
Thursday, taking heart from a bounce in Chinese shares on news that China has
delivered a written response to U.S. trade demands, while oil prices resumed
their retreat on fears of oversupply.
U.S. government sources told Reuters on Wednesday that China had sent a
response to U.S. demands for trade reform but gave no further details, raising
hopes the two sides could resume negotiations to end their trade war.
U.S. oil futures CLc1 fell 0.6 percent to $55.92 a barrel, after a
slight bounce overnight that followed 12 straight losing sessions. Brent LCOc1
was down 0.5 percent at $65.89.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS
was up 0.2 percent.
The index had fallen the previous day as the sharp slide in
oil prices heightened anxiety about the outlook for broad demand and global
growth.
Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC
gained 0.8 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng .HSI rose
0.4 percent.
Traders have cautiously welcomed news in recent days that Washington and Beijing have resumed informal discussions ahead of a meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping late this month. Few market watchers expect a trade agreement at that meeting but hopes are growing that they may agree on a de-escalation while the two sides pursue more detailed talks.
Elsewhere, Australian stocks fell 0.5 percent and Japan's Nikkei .N225 shed 0.25 percent.
“While it’s difficult to pin-point a specific event for the risk-off move, recent themes appear to be keeping markets cautious include oil’s recent plummet, Apple’s fall, U.S. political gridlock, China’s slowing growth, tightening liquidity, a hawkish Fed, earnings peak, Italian jitters, and Brexit uncertainty,” wrote economists at ANZ.
The S&P 500 .SPX fell for a fifth straight day overnight as financial stocks were hit by fears that banking industry regulations would tighten once the Democratic Party takes control of the House of Representatives. [.N]
More
Europe ready to retaliate if U.S. imposes auto tariffs: EU trade chief
November 14, 2018 / 8:23 PM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - European Union
Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said on Wednesday that the EU has a list
of potential retaliation targets ready in case U.S. President Donald Trump
imposes auto tariffs on the bloc’s member states.
Malmstrom told reporters after a meeting
with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer that they did not speak
specifically about auto tariffs, but focused instead on regulatory cooperation
issues and ways to enable EU countries to import more American soybeans and
liquefied natural gas.
Malmstrom did not specify the U.S. products on which the EU would levy
retaliatory tariffs, as consultations with member states would need to take
place, but she said the list could include “all kinds” of products.
“It could be cars, it could be agriculture, it could be industrial
products - it could be everything. And we will do that, but hope we don’t have
to get to that situation,” she said.
Malmstrom also said that the EU is willing to negotiate a limited trade
deal on industrial goods, including autos, that seeks to bring tariff rates to
zero for both the United States and Europe.
But the scope of these talks cannot be defined until early 2019, when
the USTR completes its consultation process with Congress and the EU receives a
negotiating mandate from member states, she added.
Trump administration officials on Tuesday said the president’s trade
team made no decisions on how to proceed with new recommendations from the
Commerce Department on whether to impose tariffs on autos and auto parts to
protect the U.S. industry on national security grounds. The contents of the
recommendations have not been disclosed.
More
Global oil market faces surplus throughout 2019 as demand growth slows
November 14, 2018 / 9:07 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - Global oil supply will
outpace demand throughout 2019, as a relentless rise in output swamps growth in
consumption that is at risk from a slowing economy, the International Energy
Agency said on Wednesday.
In its monthly report the Paris-based IEA left its forecast for global
demand growth for 2018 and 2019 unchanged from last month at 1.3 million
barrels per day (bpd) and 1.4 million bpd, respectively, but cut its forecast
for non-OECD demand growth, the engine of expansion in world oil consumption.
For the first half of 2019, based on its outlook for non-OPEC production
and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production, the IEA said the implied
stock build is 2 million bpd.
Output around the world has swelled since the middle of the year, while
an escalating trade dispute between the United States and China threatens
global economic growth.
On Wednesday, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that
OPEC and its partners are discussing a proposal to cut oil output by up to 1.4
million bpd for 2019 to avert an oversupply that would weaken prices.
Since early October, the oil price LCOc1 has fallen by a quarter to
below $70 a barrel, its lowest in eight months, which may protect demand to an
extent, the IEA said.
---- The agency raised its forecast for oil output growth from countries outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to 2.4 million bpd this year and 1.9 million bpd next year, versus its previous estimate of 2.2 million bpd and 1.8 million bpd, respectively.
The United States will lead output growth. The IEA estimates total U.S.
oil supply will rise by 2.1 million bpd this year and another 1.3 million bpd
in 2019, from a current record of more than 11 million bpd.
More
In other news, China is going its own way on North Korea.
In the midst of a trade war, US sanctions on China? But what would that do to
our looming global recession? China appears to relax North Korea sanctions: report to U.S. Congress
November 14, 2018 / 11:38 PM
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - A U.S. congressional commission said on Wednesday that China
appears to have relaxed enforcement of sanctions on North Korea and called on
the Treasury Department to provide a report on Chinese compliance within 180
days.
In its annual report, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review
Commission said the Treasury report should include a classified list of Chinese
financial institutions, businesses, and officials involved in trading with
North Korea that could be subject to future sanctions
.
The bipartisan commission said China had appeared to enforce sanctions
on North Korea more thoroughly than in the past in 2017 and in early 2018.
But this effort appeared to have relaxed since a thaw in relations
between China and North Korea as the long-time ally of Beijing began to engage
with the United States this year.
“China appears to have eased off sanctions enforcement, despite its
promises to keep sanctions intact until North Korea gets rid of its nuclear
weapons,” the report said.
“North Korean workers have returned to jobs in northeast China, economic
activity and tourism have picked up in border towns, flights in both directions
have resumed, and the two countries have conducted high-profile official
exchanges to discuss economic development,” it said.
It said China always left “key lifelines” in place for North Korea and
there were “holes” in enforcement that included “ship to ship” transfers of
goods.The report said the Treasury Department, in recommending Chinese
sanctions targets, should also “explain the potential broader impacts of
sanctioning those entities.”
More
Finally, did Boeing make a gigantic error?
Pacific Gas and Electric? How costly to both?
American Airlines 'unaware' of some Boeing 737 MAX functions until last week: spokesman
November 15, 2018 / 4:57 AM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - American Airlines
Group Inc (AAL.O) said on Wednesday it was “unaware” of
some functions of an anti-stall system on Boeing Co’s (BA.N) 737 MAX until last week.
Boeing and the U.S. Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA) issued guidance on the system last week after a Lion Air
jet crashed in Indonesia on Oct. 29, killing all 189 people on board.
“We value our partnership with Boeing, but were unaware of some of the
functionality of the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS)
installed on the MAX 8,” an American Airlines spokesman said.
He said American Airlines must ensure its pilots are fully trained on
procedures and understand key systems on the jets they fly.
“The work with the FAA and Boeing is on-going, and we will continue to
keep pilots informed of any updates,” the spokesman said.
PG&E stock and bonds hammered on concern over California utility’s wildfire liability
By Ciara
Linnane Published: Nov 14, 2018 3:02
p.m. ET
PG&E Corp. shares fell another 30% on Wednesday to bring their week-to-date
losses to 43%, after the utility said its insurance may not cover the possible
losses from the worst wildfire in California history.The parent of Pacific Gas and Electric PCG, -21.79% , with about 16 million customers in California, has seen its stock lose 53% of its value in five sessions and is on track to close at its lowest level since September 2003. The company’s bonds were also falling hard and accounted for three of the top 10 most actively traded investment-grade bonds of the day.
California regulators are still investigating the cause of what’s called the Camp Fire that has blazed across roughly 135,000 acres in Butte County, Northern California, causing 48 deaths and destroying thousands of homes. The fire is about 35% contained, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, or Cal Fire.
In a regulatory filing Tuesday, PG&E said the outage happened in the
area of Butte County near the city of Paradise where the fire is understood to
have started. Paradise was all but completely wiped out in the blaze.
PG&E warned that while it had renewed its liability insurance coverage
for wildfire events in its most recent quarter to an aggregate amount of about
$1.4 billion, it could be facing a far larger bill that would have serious
implications for its finances.
“While the cause of the Camp Fire is still under investigation, if the Utility’s equipment is determined to be the cause, the Utility could be subject to significant liability in excess of insurance coverage that would be expected to have a material impact on PG&E Corporation’s and the Utility’s financial condition, results of operations, liquidity, and cash flows,” the company said in the filing.
PG&E said it notified the California Public Utilities Commission of the failure of some of its equipment in an electric incident report on Nov. 8. The report said the failure began at about 0615 hours. The fire is reported to have started at 6.33 a.m., according to Cal Fire.
PG&E is already facing liabilities from wildfires that raged in 2017, destroying more than 245,000 acres. In its most recent earnings report, the company said it was guiding for $1.65 billion to $1.82 billion in after-tax costs related to 14 of the 2017 fires, net of insurance and other costs. State investigators have linked PG&E’s equipment to about 17 of the 2017 fires, according to a regulatory filing from Nov. 5.
More
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Yes, you guessed it, it’s the banksters again, this
time my own bank, Bank of Scotland and in my home town of Reading. Bank of
Scotland is the BOS part of HBOS and it was their branch in Reading that
perpetrated the massive fraud. The same branch that prosecuted a young junior
clerk just starting out, for a small larceny that led to the poor man’s
suicide. HBOS went bust in the 2008-2009
crash and got taken over (and took in) Lloyds.
Approaching 69 at the end of the month, I am old
enough to remember when banking was an honest respectable profession, before
the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money turned banking into banksterism.
"The
London Banker Henry Fauntleroy forged to keep his bank solvent. He was executed
for it in 1824."
Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias Panics and Crashes.
Lloyds agrees settlement with HBOS whistleblower
November 14, 2018 / 9:39 AM / Updated 16
minutes ago
LONDON
(Reuters) - Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L)
said on Wednesday it had settled with an ex-employee who accused former bosses
of concealing a massive fraud at its HBOS Reading unit, prior to a
record-breaking cash call needed to keep the combined group afloat in 2009. The
bank apologised to Sally Masterton, a former senior risk officer at Lloyds, and
said that it had agreed to pay her financial compensation.
Britain’s
biggest mortgage lender, which took over HBOS in 2009, reopened Masterton’s
case earlier this year after coming under pressure over its treatment of her
and how it handled her allegations.
That followed the publication of a report, written by Masterton in 2013,
which alleged HBOS executives knew of the fraud years before the takeover and
failed to properly disclose it, with implications for the HBOS deal.
On Wednesday, Lloyds said Masterton had acted with integrity and good
faith at all times, and that she documented her concerns in a report following
a request from the bank - a point it had previously disputed. “I am pleased
that Lloyds Banking Group has listened to me... and has recognised the distress
and inconvenience this has caused me,” Masterton said in a separate statement.
She took leave from her duties at the bank and left in 2014, having
never returned to work there.
The publication of Masterton’s allegations, in a document known as the
Project Lord Turnbull report, revived criticisms of Lloyds’ handling of one of
the industry’s worst-ever frauds, weighing on the reputation it has worked hard
to rebuild in the years since the financial crisis.
The fraud, which took place in the early 2000s, saw the conspirators use
their positions to enrich themselves at the expense of struggling business
clients, some of which succumbed to insolvency and were stripped of their
assets after being advised to borrow unsustainable amounts.
Six people were jailed for a combined 47 years for the fraud in February
2017.
Lloyds has apologised to victims and set up a 100 million pound
compensation scheme. The bank said it handed Masterton’s report to regulators
and the police in 2014.
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is conducting a probe into HBOS
and what its executives knew of the fraud prior to the Lloyds acquisition,
while a retired judge Linda Dobbs is looking at whether Lloyds properly
investigated the incident after it acquired HBOS in 2009.
Britain’s National Crime Agency has also expanded a review into the
fraud.
Henry Fauntleroy: A Banker Executed for His Crimes
Updated on December 20, 2017
On November 30, 1824, Henry Fauntleroy attracted the largest crowd ever
to attend a public execution in England.
The gallows were set up outside Newgate Prison and, reports Stephen
Adams of The Telegraph (November 18, 2009), “Such a scandal was the
Fauntleroy affair that 100,000 turned up” to watch the hanging.
The contemporary account in The Newgate Calendar said, “Every
window and roof which could command a view of the dreadful ceremony was
occupied, and places from which it was impossible to catch a glimpse of the
scaffold were blocked up by those who were prevented by the dense crowd before
them from advancing farther.”
So, what made this man such a villain that huge numbers of people wanted
to see him dance a jig at the end of a rope?
More
“George
goes to sleep at a bank from ten to four each day, except Saturdays, when they
wake him up and put him outside at two.”
Three Men in a Boat 1889.
Real banking.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
New records in perovskite-silicon tandem solar cells through improved light management
Date:
November 12, 2018
Source:
Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin für Materialien und Energie
Summary:
Using microstructured layers, a team has been able to increase the efficiency
of perovskite-silicon tandem solar cells, achieving 25.5 %, which is the
highest published value to date. At the same time, computational simulations
were utilized to investigate light conversion in various device designs with
different nanostructured surfaces. This enabled optimization of light
management and detailed energy yield analyses.
A team headed by HZB physicist Steve Albrecht has investigated an
alternative approach of light management with textures in tandem solar cells.
The team fabricated an efficient perovskite/silicon tandem device whose silicon
layer was etched on the back-side. The perovskite layer could be applied by
spincoating onto the smooth front-side of the silicon. The team afterwards
applied a polymer light management (LM) foil to the front-side of the device.
This enabled processing of a high-quality perovskite film on a flat surface,
while still benefiting from the front-side texture. "In this way, we succeeded
in considerably improving the efficiency of a monolithic perovskite-silicon
heterojunction tandem cell from 23.4 % to 25.5 %," says Marko Jošt, first
author of the study and postdoctoral fellow in Albrecht's team.
Numerical model shows possibility for up to 32.5 %
In addition, Jošt and colleagues have developed a sophisticated
numerical model for complex 3D features and their interaction with light. This
enabled the team to calculate how different device designs with textures at
various interfaces affect efficiency. "Based on these complex simulations
and empirical data, we believe that an efficiency of 32.5 % can realistically
be achieved -- if we succeed to incorporate high quality perovskites with a
band gap of 1.66 eV," says Jošt.
Suitable for building integrated PV
And team leader Steve Albrecht adds: "Based on real weather data,
we were able to calculate the energy yield over the course of a year -- for the
different cell designs and for three different locations." In addition,
the simulations show that the LM foil on the front-side of the solar cell
device is particularly advantageous under diffuse light irradiation, i.e. not
only under perpendicularly incident light. Tandem solar cells with the new LM
foil could therefore also be suitable for incorporation in building-integrated
photovoltaics (BIPV), opening up huge new areas for energy generation from
large sky scraper facades.
“In the
church is a memorial to Mrs. Sarah Hill, who bequeathed 1 pound annually, to be
divided at Easter, between two boys and two girls who "have never been
undutiful to their parents; who have never been known to swear or to tell
untruths, to steal, or to break windows." Fancy giving up all that for
five shillings a year! It is not worth it!”
Three Men in a Boat 1889.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October.
DJIA: 25,116 +176 Down. NASDAQ:
7,306 +232 Down. SP500: 2,712 +146 Down. All three slow indexes went sharply down in
October, suggesting there’s more of the correction to come.
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