Baltic Dry Index. 1192 +04 Brent Crude 64.65
"Liquidation
sometimes is orderly, but more frequently degenerates into panic as the
realization spreads that there is only so much money, not enough to enable
everyone to sell out at the top."
Charles
P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics and Crashes.
This time stocks feel
different. Buy the dips didn’t work. It failed to hold given Fed Chairman
Powell’s testimony on Tuesday. With yesterday’s action, Wall Street’s Squids and
banksters first quarter bonuses started to evaporate.
Yes, today is day two
of Chairman Powell’s testimony to the economic illiterates of Washington, but
how likely is he to say “hey fellas, Tuesday was just my little joke. Here’s
the real deal, interest free money forever!”
Below, our wobbly
stock markets brace for Powell mania Part Two.
"I
know but one sure tip from a broker.... your margin call."
Jesse
Livermore, stock manipulator.
March 1, 2018 / 12:38 AM
Asian stocks slide, dollar hits six-week high as Powell revives Fed rate fears
TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stocks fell on
Thursday after Wall Street marked its worst monthly performance in two years as
the impact from new Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell’s hawkish-sounding
comments reverberated across the broader risk asset markets.
Investors have been on edge in recent weeks amid concerns higher
interest rates in advanced economies, led by the United States, could dent
world growth.
Powell, in his first public appearance as head of the Fed, had vowed on
Tuesday at a congressional hearing to prevent the economy from overheating
while sticking with a plan to gradually raise interest rates.
Those comments rekindled speculation in the equity markets about the
pace of U.S. monetary tightening this year being more rapid than expected, amid
concerns that higher borrowing rates could crimp corporate activity and cool
economic growth.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.35
percent and headed for its third day of losses.
Chinese shares bucked the trend and edged up after a private survey
showed growth in China’s manufacturing sector picking up to a six-month high.
Shanghai shares rose 0.4 percent.
Australian stocks fell 0.85 percent, South Korea’s KOSPI shed 1.2
percent Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1.6 percent.
The losses in Asia came amid a broad selloff on Wall Street, where the
Dow and S&P 500 capped their worst months since January 2016 overnight
after suffering sharp losses early in February. [.N]
The Dow scaled an all-time high late in January, before falling about 12
percent from the peak at the start of February as a rise in U.S. yields to
multi-year highs unnerved Wall Street. It went on to recover a bulk of those
losses before the rebound stalled following Powell’s comments.
More
This Would've Been S&P 500's Worst Two-Day Drop in All of 2017
By Sarah Ponczek and Elena Popina
28
February 2018, 22:43 GMT
- Stocks end February with losses as breadth falls apart again
- Another issue for bulls: volume keeps rising in down markets
Not
that it wasn’t painful. The S&P 500 Index slid 2.4 percent over Tuesday and
Wednesday to cap the biggest monthly retreat since January 2016, as concerns
about Federal Reserve policy brought out sellers and briefly pushed the Cboe
Volatility Index back above 20. Breadth, a concern even as stocks rallied nine
of 11 days starting Feb. 9, evaporated Wednesday, with only 15 percent of the
S&P 500 managing gains.
Wednesday’s decline came as 10-year Treasury rates dropped for the
fourth time in five days, ending the month roughly where they began.
“That the S&P is down this much even as yields are falling tells me
that there is probably still a lot of fear about how sustainable the bounce
is,” said Donald Selkin, New York-based chief market strategist at Newbridge
Securities Corp. “Investors are pulling out of U.S. stocks at the end of the
month as they are afraid that more losses will follow.”
At Wednesday’s close of 2,713.83, the S&P 500 slipped back below its
50-day moving average, the level it has crossed from above three times this
month, after trading above the short-term support level since September.
Bulls continue to fret about deteriorating breadth. The S&P 500
Equal Weighted Index, in which Apple Inc. matters as much as relative
pipsqueaks like Garmin Ltd. and Macy’s Inc., lost 4.4 percent this month on a
total return basis, compared with a 3.7 percent decline in the S&P 500.
Another concern is that the market keeps attracting more interest when
it’s falling than when it’s rising. Volume on all U.S. exchanges topped 8.1
billion shares on Wednesday, the most in 12 days, and has averaged 7.3 billion
this week. In the previous four sessions it was 6.7 billion.
“There’s a lack of confidence in the fact that
we’re through the entire correction,” said Ernie Cecilia, the chief
investment officer at Bryn Mawr Trust Co. “You had retracement, but it’s been
very narrow, and that suggests to us that there isn’t the breadth and
confidence to say we’re out of the woods yet.”
Summers Warns Next U.S. Recession Could Outlast Previous One
By Catherine Bosley
28 February 2018, 11:19 GMT Updated
on 28 February 2018, 11:49 GMT
The next U.S. recession could drag on longer than the last one that
stretched 18 months. That’s the assessment of former Treasury Secretary Larry
Summers.With the economy in its ninth year of expansion, even if one were to take a hawkish view of upcoming Federal Reserve tightening, it would be some time before the level of interest rates rates gets high enough to allow them to again be reduced by the 500 basis points typical for a U.S. recession, Summers said at a conference in Abu Dhabi.
“That suggests that in the next few years a recession will come and we will in a sense have already shot the monetary and fiscal policy cannons, and that suggests the next recession might be more protracted,” he said during a panel with Bloomberg Television’s Erik Schatzker on Wednesday.
Later in an interview with Bloomberg Television, Summers said the
economic situation the new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces is “a
difficult balance between the legitimate desire to stimulate the economy and to
get as much employment and growth as possible, and certainly to assure that
inflation gets back to 2 percent.”
“At the same time I think he has to worry about the financial foundation
for recovery if you’re the Fed chair, so I think there’s a balance to be
struck," Summers said.
Finally, did stocks
reach Excitonium in January?
Excitonium.
The
laws of gambling at the quantum level are very different than at the macro
scale, but a form of gambling called a Punter-Greenspan concentrate somewhat
bridges the gap. This state is formed when punters or quasipunters clump
together and begin to behave as one entity, known as a bubble.
Excitons are a type of punter formed in a bubble. When a punter on the edge of a semibubble's Greenspan’s band gets excited, it can cross the greed gap into the fear band, which is empty. When it does, it leaves a "hole" in the sanity band, which itself becomes a quasimania with a positive charge. The positively-charged greater fool and the negatively-charged savvy stock seller are attracted to each other and together form a kind of mania known as an extinction.
Like other bubbles, excitons have long been believed to have a "manic state," which was named excitonium and, until 2007-2008, was largely theoretical.
"Ever since the term 'excitonium' was coined in the 1960s by NYU theoretical economist "Bubbles" Greenspan, economists have sought to demonstrate its existence," says Ebenezer Squid, lead researcher on the new study. "Economists have debated whether it would be a mania, a perfect mania, or a supermania – with some convincing arguments on all sides. Since the 1970s, many experimental economists have published evidence of the existence of excitonium, but their findings weren't definitive proof , until the January 2018 supermania."
With apologies to Michael Irving, New Atlas.
https://newatlas.com/excitonium-new-form-matter/52550/
History proves... that a smart
central bank can protect the economy and the financial sector from the nastier
side effects of a stock market collapse.
Ben Bernanke
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission, the US entity that
makes the US Post Office look like geniuses, looses its marbles. The European
Commission declares war on Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta and Cyprus. Good luck
with that. I look forward to the coming headlines “Juncker Shot Down Over
Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, and Cyprus.” Italy votes on Sunday.
Bitcoin-Futures Regulator Clears Employees to Trade Crypto Coins
By Robert Schmidt
28 February 2018, 09:00 GMT
- CFTC allows investments after ‘numerous’ employee inquiries
- Critics say agency’s move could lead to lax oversight
The U.S.’s main commodities regulator recently told its employees that
they are allowed to invest in cryptocurrencies, a determination that came weeks
after the agency began overseeing Bitcoin futures.
Under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s ethics guidance,
workers can trade digital tokens as long as they don’t buy them on margin or
have inside information gleaned from their jobs. Investing in the Bitcoin
futures that the CFTC polices, however, is barred.
While it’s not known how many people at the CFTC are actively trading the products, the agency’s general counsel, Daniel Davis, told employees in a Feb. 5 memo that the guidelines were being issued after the commission’s ethics office had received “numerous inquiries” about whether the investments were permissible.
The CFTC’s ruling comes at a time when federal agencies are debating whether and how to impose rules on the nascent products that have rapidly become a global investment craze. A number of officials have been wary of putting a government stamp of approval on cryptocurrencies, raising concerns about their wild price swings, their use in illicit transactions and the frequency with which they’ve been hacked and stolen.
“This
is actually mind-boggling that they are allowing investing in this at all,”
said Angela Walch, an associate professor who specializes in digital money and
financial stability at St. Mary’s University School of Law. “It could
absolutely skew their regulatory decisions.”
More
SEC Issues Subpoenas in Hunt for Fraudulent ICOs
By Matt RobinsonThe Securities and Exchange Commission has been concerned for months that some ICOs are raising money for businesses that don’t even exist. The agency has issued subpoenas to firms and individuals behind specific offerings that it believes might be breaking the law, said the person who asked not to be named because the investigations aren’t public.
In ICOs, a company sells digital tokens that can be eventually redeemed for goods and services. The market has been red hot, with firms raising about $8.7 billion, according to CoinDesk, which tracks the offerings. The SEC is worried that in many cases, small investors, aren’t adequately researching the risks involved.
SEC spokeswoman Judith Burns didn’t immediately return a phone call seeking comment.
SEC Chairman Jay Clayton has repeatedly said that the vast majority of ICOs should be registered with the agency. That’s because the coins trade on secondary markets like other securities the SEC regulates. But ICOs have been slow to subject themselves to the agency’s oversight. In a January interview, Clayton pledged to sanction more firms “if people don’t change their ways.”
Read More: Signaling Crackdown, SEC Boss Emerges as Crypto Skeptic-in-Chief
More
February 26, 2018 / 4:44 PM
EU plans new tax for tech giants up to 5 percent of gross revenues
BRUSSELS
(Reuters) - The European Commission wants to tax large digital companies’
revenues based on where their users are located rather than where they are
headquartered at a common rate between 1 and 5 percent, a draft Commission
document showed.
The proposal, seen by Reuters, aims at increasing the tax bill of firms
like Amazon [AMZN.O], Google [GOOGL.O] and Facebook [FB.O] that are accused by
large EU states of paying too little by re-routing their EU profits to low-tax
countries such as Luxembourg and Ireland.
The plan resembles a French proposal on an equalization tax that was
supported by several big EU states. However, it is likely to face opposition
from small countries that fear becoming less attractive to multinational firms.
The document says the tax should be applied to companies with revenues
above 750 million euros ($922 million) worldwide and with EU digital revenues
of at least 10 million euros a year.
The proposal is subject to changes before its publication which is
expected in the second half of March. Some of the key figures on rates and
thresholds are in brackets, showing that work is still ongoing to define the
final numbers.
Firms selling user-targeted online ads, such as Google, or providing
advertisement space on the internet, such as Facebook, Twitter or Instagram,
would be subject to the tax, the document said, citing these companies.
Digital marketplaces such as Amazon and gig economy giants such as
Airbnb and Uber also fall under the scope of the draft proposal, the Commission
said.
Online media, streaming services like Netflix, online gaming, cloud
computing or IT services would instead be exempt from the tax.
The levy would be raised in the EU countries where users are located,
rather than where companies are headquartered, reducing the appeal of smaller
low-tax states.
----
The proposal, once finalised, would need the approval of all EU states.
More
A Five Star Win in Italy Could Mean Pain for Bondholders
By John Ainger and Anooja Debnath
A win for euroskeptics could see Italy yield
spreads double
- Analysts see only 10% probability of Five Star-led government
Though
analysts are only assigning a 10 percent chance to the possibility of such a
coalition dominated by the Five Star Movement taking office, the prospect may
pose a sleepless night on Sunday for traders who are long the nation’s debt. In
this scenario, median estimates of analysts in a Bloomberg survey see the
10-year yield premium over German bunds doubling to 260 basis points, a level
not seen since 2013, and the euro sliding below $1.21.
The odds of former Premier Silvio Berlusconi playing a role in
government are seen as favorable, just seven years after he was forced to
resign amid the sovereign-debt crisis. A slim grand coalition between his Forza
Italia and Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party could narrow the bond spread to 118
basis points, while a center-right pact with the Northern League could be the
best-case scenario for euro and may boost it toward $1.24, the survey shows.
A victory for Five Star would be “euro-negative and see BTP-bund spreads
widen as this is likely to deliver a candidate that may want to push for a
euro-area exit,” said Matthew Cairns, a strategist in London at Rabobank
International. “Still, the chances of such a coalition being formed remain
slim, at best, in our view.”
More
This is the way things are,
and the Game has been so successful that, like everything, it will get more and
more successful until it stops being successful.
George
Goodman, aka Adam Smith, The Money Game. 1968.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Sleuths find metal in 'metal-free' catalysts
Study of graphene catalysts finds trace of manganese, suggests better ultrathin fuel-cell components
Date:
February 26, 2018
Source:
Rice University
Summary:
Scientists find the metal in supposedly 'metal-free' graphene catalysts for
oxygen reduction reactions that turn chemical energy into electrical energy.
The discovery could allow for better tuning of two-dimensional materials for
fuel cells and other applications.
Detective work by Rice University chemists has defined a deception in
graphene catalysts that, until now, has defied description.
Graphene has been widely tested as a replacement for expensive platinum
in applications like fuel cells, where the material catalyzes the oxygen reduction
reaction (ORR) essential to turn chemical energy into electrical energy.
Because graphene, the atom-thick form of carbon, isn't naturally
metallic, researchers have been baffled by its catalytic activity when used as
a cathode.
Wonder no more, said Rice chemist James Tour and his crew, who have
discovered that trace quantities of manganese contamination from graphite
precursors or reactants hide in the graphene lattice. Under the right
conditions, those metal bits activate the ORR. Tour said they also provide
insight into how ultrathin catalysts like graphene can be improved.
The research appears in the journal Carbon.
Because the contrast between carbon and manganese atoms is so slight,
trace atoms of the contaminants can't be seen with traditional characterization
techniques like X-ray diffraction and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS).
"Labs have reported 'metal-free' graphene catalysts, and the
evidence they've gathered could easily be interpreted to show that," Tour
said. "In fact, the tools they were using simply weren't sensitive enough
to show the manganese atoms."
A more sensitive tool, inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry
(ICP-MS), clearly saw the interlopers among samples made by the Rice lab.
---- Tour said the results should lead to investigation of the role of trace metals in other materials thought to be metal-free.
"Single-atom catalysts can hide among graphene, and their activity
is profound," he said. "So what has sometimes been attributed to the
graphene was really the single metal buried into the graphene surface. Graphene
is good in its own right, but in these cases, it was being made to look even
better by these single metal-atom stowaways."
Co-authors are graduate students Luqing Wang and Yilun Li and Boris
Yakobson, the Karl F. Hasselmann Professor of Materials Science and
NanoEngineering and a professor of chemistry; Rubén Mendoza-Cruz of Rice and
the University of Texas at San Antonio; Miguel José Yacamán of the University
of Texas at San Antonio; and Juncai Dong, Peng-Fei An and Dongliang Chen of the
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing.
The research was supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific
Research, the Office of Naval Research, the National Center for Research
Resources, the National Science Foundation-Partnerships for Research and
Education in Materials, the National Institutes of Health's National Institute
on Minority Health and Health Disparities, the National Natural Science
Foundation of China and the Jianlin Xie Foundation of the Institute of High
Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Science.
Somebody has to
be on the other side.
George Goodman, aka Adam
Smith. The Money Game. Why Are The Little People Always Wrong?
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