Wednesday, 7 March 2018

Trade War Causes Civil War. China Up Next



Baltic Dry Index. 1212 +02    Brent Crude 65.22

The whole history of civilization is strewn with creeds and institutions which were invaluable at first, and deadly afterwards.

Walter Bagehot.
 
Is it still possible to stop President Trump’s unwise trade war largely directed at NAFTA and NATO? Probably not.  President Trump having placed himself in a corner with no easy exit, seems to be doubling down. After NAFTA and NATO comes the trade war with China over the theft of America’s intellectual property. Run, do not walk, to the lifeboats. In stock mania, getting out early always trumped getting carried out last. Without a last minute reversal of an insane return to the 1930s, stock mania is dead, getting in the elevator and pressing “B” for basement.

If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

Asian spooked by Gary Cohn’s resignation

Published: Mar 7, 2018 1:38 a.m. ET
Asia-Pacific stocks were broadly lower Wednesday with investors spooked by news that Gary Cohn would resign as President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser after he lost a fight over tariffs.

There was a lot of confusion in the morning session, said Kay Van-Petersen, global macro strategist at Saxo Bank. He expects further volatility once European traders arrive at their desks.

“I’ve gone from being a little bit relaxed about the trade-war thing to being quite a lot more nervous,” he added. “People are not giving it as much weight as they should be…I don’t think people are really thinking this through.”

Highlighting the back-and-forth in markets, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average NIK, -0.77% briefly turned positive after an early 1% drop. But Tokyo stocks were recently lower, falling along with many Asian equities benchmarks. The Japanese index was off 0.8% with commodities-related stocks, banks and auto makers sagging.

The commodities-heavy S&P/ASX 200 in Australia XJO, -1.01%  closed down 1% with oil futures also under pressure.

S&P 500 futures ESH8, -1.42%  were down 1.4% while the ICE Dollar Index DXY, -0.01%  eased 0.1%.
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Trump Confronted Cohn on Trade Hours Before Resignation, Sources Say

By Jennifer Jacobs
Updated on 7 March 2018, 04:43 GMT
President Donald Trump demanded economic adviser Gary Cohn’s cooperation on tariffs in a meeting in the Oval Office Tuesday -- asking Cohn directly if he would support his decision to move forward with the plan.

Cohn would not offer his support, according to two people familiar with the episode -- and just hours later, the White House announced Cohn’s resignation.

In a way, Cohn’s resignation as director of National Economic Council was exactly as Trump had predicted this week, telling associates that he expected Cohn to quit if Trump went ahead with the tariffs. Trump is expected to announce the moves -- a 25 percent tariff on steel and 10 percent on aluminum -- as early as this week.

Cohn is a free-trade advocate who vociferously opposed Trump’s plan, so his views were well-known. But the moment in the Oval Office brought the two men -- president and adviser -- into direct conflict.

Trump, during the trade policy meeting in the Oval Office Tuesday, asked for an update on the legal paperwork that will make the tariffs official and discussed the timing of the signing of the tariffs order. He then sought confirmation that everyone -- and especially Cohn -- was willing to stand behind him.

----This person also said that Cohn even agreed with Trump on the need for a tougher stance on China. but that any metals tariffs that also hit Canada, Mexico and the European Union seemed counterproductive. Still, Cohn is prepared to stay until the end of the month to help Trump pick his new economic adviser, this person said. 

Not only that, the person said, Cohn would be willing to come back for an even larger job, including possibly a cabinet post, the person said. All of Trump’s cabinet positions are currently filled. 

Cohn told the president in February that he was underutilized and should have a bigger role, the person added, and if there wasn’t a bigger for him, that he was considering moving on.
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How a tariff-rattled stock market is reacting to Cohn’s resignation from the Trump White House

Published: Mar 6, 2018 10:29 p.m. ET

Dow futures tumble more than 400 points at lows amid news of the resignation of Trump’s key economic adviser

U.S. stock benchmarks looked set to open sharply lower after Gary Cohn, the head of President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council, resigned late Tuesday.

Cohn, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS, +1.45%  executive, has been viewed by Wall Street participants as a level head within an administration that has viewed by some critics as one in turmoil.

Cohn is regarded as the chief architect of Wall Street-friendly corporate tax cuts signed into law last year and his decision to leave the role as the president’s top economic adviser underlines a fear that Trump, who last week announced global tariffs on aluminum and steel, is set to soon adopt protectionist stance, which many strategists and traders view as a threat to the economic expansion should they spark a global trade war.

Cohn was increasingly on the outs, according to news reports and viewed as part of a so-called globalist faction in the Trump administration, attempting to moderate efforts to impose protectionist trade policies.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Cohn had lost an intense battle over trade with Peter Navarro, another key presidential adviser seen as an proponent of the tariff plan.
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March 6, 2018 / 4:45 PM / Updated 3 hours ago

Trade skeptics gain upper hand in White House as Cohn quits

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Economic nationalists appeared to gain the upper hand in a White House battle over trade with the resignation of Donald Trump’s top economic adviser, Gary Cohn, on Tuesday in a move that could ramp up protectionist measures that risk igniting a global trade war.

----Cohn’s resignation came after Trump said he was sticking with plans to impose hefty tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. While the measures on their own are relatively small, the risk is that an emboldened Trump administration will push ahead with a full-scale economic confrontation with China.

America’s trade deficit with China hit $375.2 billion in 2017, equivalent to two-thirds of the country’s total trade deficit of $566 billion. Trump has said he will remedy what he terms the jobs- and industry-destroying deficits.

“The economic nationalists now certainly have the upper hand and their camp is bigger. I think they are going to be very influential in the administration,” said Monica de Bolle, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington-based think tank.

The Trump administration has launched an investigation into intellectual property abuses by China, which could dwarf any impact of the steel and aluminum proposals and trigger a sharp response from Beijing. Trump has said the fines could be huge.

With Cohn’s departure, the profile of Peter Navarro, an anti-China economist who favors protectionist measures, appears to have risen within the White House.

Navarro has written extensively of China’s military and economic threat to the United States in a series of books, including “Death by China: Confronting the Dragon — A Global Call to Action.”
Moew

DowDuPont Says Trump Steel Tariffs Hurt Case for New U.S. Plants

By Jack Kaskey
Updated on 6 March 2018, 23:38 GMT
DowDuPont Inc., the world’s largest chemical company, is considering Canada or Argentina instead of the U.S. Gulf Coast for its next major investment as President Donald Trump’s proposed steel tariffs make domestic construction pricier.

The tariffs would add hundreds of million of dollars to DowDuPont’s next wave of petrochemical expansion, said Jim Fitterling, chief operating officer of the Dow unit.

“You eventually get yourself to the point where you are saying, ‘Should I really be building that here or somewhere else?’” Fitterling said Tuesday on the sidelines of the CERAWeek by IHS Market energy conference in Houston. “We’ve got opportunities in other places like Canada, like Argentina. All of them right now are on the radar screen.”

DowDupont last year completed construction of $6 billion in new factories along the Texas Gulf Coast to take advantage of abundant, low-cost natural gas from the shale drilling boom. Those plants contained about $1.2 billion worth of steel, Fitterling said Tuesday in an interview. Trump’s proposed 25 percent duty on steel imports would have added about $300 million in costs to the project.

The company, which in May announced another $6 billion of U.S. projects, plans to disclose a big investment before the Dow unit is spun off as a separate company in the first quarter of next year, Fitterling said. But the economics of the development are shifting.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/dowdupont-says-steel-tariff-hurts-case-for-more-u-s-factories

Goldman Sachs Rips Into Trump’s Tariffs Plan

By Jasmine Ng
Updated on 6 March 2018, 08:13 GMT
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. delivered a comprehensive critique of Donald Trump’s planned metal tariffs, saying they risk damaging the world’s biggest economy by raising costs just as price pressures build, hurting allies more than others, and creating a two-tier global market.

Import tariffs make the U.S. less competitive by raising the prices of raw materials,” the New York-based bank said in a report received on Tuesday. It added: “By imposing across-the-board tariffs to all steel and aluminum imports, the larger economic impact is on Canada, Mexico and the EU, and it ironically eases the economic impact to China and Russia.”

Trump’s plan has ignited a firestorm of opposition, with criticism from around the globe, senior members of his own party, and top manufacturers including Ford Motor Co. As Goldman weighed in, BHP Billiton Ltd. delivered its own assessment, with the world’s biggest miner describing Trump’s move as a “black day for the world.” Goldman’s report came as White House economic adviser Gary Cohn is summoning executives from U.S. metals users to meet with the president on Thursday to fight the curbs.

“The president has likely created a two-tier metal market,” analysts led by Jeff Currie wrote. “Economically, a two-tier market is ultimately damaging to U.S. downstream industries that consume these metals, as it creates an uneven playing field for U.S. industries that face higher metal prices.”

In a sign that Trump’s plan risks unleashing a tit-for-tat response from top trading partners, the European Commission has proposed retaliatory tariffs on imports of U.S. steel, apparel, textile and footwear, as well as selected industrial goods, according to a draft seen by Bloomberg News. That list includes motorbikes, t-shirts, jeans, corn and bourbon.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/goldman-says-trump-tariffs-ultimately-damaging-to-u-s-buyers

U.S. Considers Broad Curbs on Chinese Imports, Takeovers

By Andrew Mayeda and Jennifer Jacobs
Updated on 7 March 2018, 05:41 GMT
The Trump administration is considering clamping down on Chinese investments in the U.S. and imposing tariffs on a broad range of its imports to punish Beijing for its alleged theft of intellectual property, according to people familiar with the matter.

An announcement following an investigation by the U.S. Trade Representative’s office into China’s IP practices is expected in the coming weeks, potentially handing President Donald Trump further cause to impose trade restrictions. His announcement last week of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has already ratcheted up global trade tensions -- and led to the resignation Tuesday of his chief economic adviser Gary Cohn, who opposes such measures.

Trump tweeted he’ll be making a decision on a replacement soon and that there are “many people wanting the job.” The dollar fell and the yen -- often a haven in turmoil -- jumped as much as 0.6 percent to 105.46 per dollar, approaching a 16-month high set last week.

The president is now fighting trade offensives on multiple fronts, from targeting strategic rival China to angering allies like Canada and the European Union with threats to erect fresh barriers. While his counterparts have threatened retaliation, concrete action that would herald the start of an all-out trade war has yet to come.

Read more about how the EU is readying measures against GOP heartland

Under the most severe scenario being weighed, the U.S. could impose tariffs on a wide range of Chinese imports, from shoes and clothing to consumer electronics, according to two people familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions aren’t public.

The Trump administration could combine the tariffs with restrictions on Chinese investments in the U.S., which are reviewed for national-security risks by Treasury’s Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., the people said. The new measures being considered by the administration could go beyond even domestic security considerations.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/u-s-said-to-consider-broad-curbs-on-chinese-imports-takeovers

“It is hard for us, without being flippant, to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing one dollar in any of those [Credit Default Swap] transactions.”

Joseph J. Cassano,  former head of A.I.G. Financial Products, London, August 2007. AIG was bailed out with 85 billion September 2008, after Cassano’s riskless CDS blew up.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today the totally doubled over. When did the last honest man leave corporate Japan? Below, a story that like Germany’s dirty killer diesel engines, is going to run, and run, and run.

March 5, 2018 / 6:00 PM / Updated 11 minutes ago

Kobe Steel admits data fraud went on nearly five decades, CEO to quit

TOKYO (Reuters) - Kobe Steel Ltd admitted on Tuesday its data fraud has been going on nearly five decades and also revealed new cases of cheating, highlighting the challenges facing the 112-year-old company mired in compliance failures and malfeasance.

Japan’s third-biggest steelmaker said its CEO will step down to take responsibility for the widespread data fraud scandal that came to light last year, although doubts remain over its corporate culture and the possibility of future fines.

Kobe Steel, which supplies steel parts to manufacturers of cars, planes and trains around the world, admitted last year to supplying products with falsified specifications to about 500 customers, throwing global supply chains into turmoil.

The company, in announcing the results from a four-month-long investigation by an external committee, said it had also found new cases of impropriety, widening the total of affected clients to 605, including 222 customers overseas.

“I feel heavy responsibility as our data falsification has caused trouble to so many customers,” the resigning CEO and chairman, Hiroya Kawasaki, told a news conference.

“I’ve offered my resignation ... as I think preventive measures should be done under a new management,” he said.

Kawasaki will leave his post on April 1, with his successor to be decided soon by the board, the company said.

Inappropriate actions were widespread, and were carried out with the knowledge and involvement of many, including management, the company said.

Kobe Steel also announced the resignation of Executive Vice President Akira Kaneko and temporary pay cuts for up to 80 percent of all internal directors and executive officers.

The case was one of the country’s biggest industrial scandals in recent memory, which set off a rash of malfeasance revelations by other Japanese heavyweights, hitting the country’s reputation for manufacturing excellence.

In the past several months, Mitsubishi Materials Corp, Toray Industries and Ube Industries have also admitted to product data fabrication while automakers Nissan Motor and Subaru Corp have revealed incorrect final inspection procedures.

Kobe Steel said the data cheating started at least as early as the 1970s, based on testimony from multiple sources interviewed by the external investigation team.

---- Kobe Steel has had a series of scandals in the last dozen years, including taking part in bid-rigging for a bridge project in 2005, failing to report income to tax authorities in 2008, 2011 and 2013, and falsifying emissions data in 2006. Illegal political funding to candidates in local elections in 2009 also prompted the resignations of the then CEO and chairman.
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March 6, 2018 / 7:51 PM

Kobe Steel, Toyota hit with U.S. lawsuit over vehicle metal quality

NEW YORK/TOKYO (Reuters) - U.S. consumers have filed a lawsuit against Kobe Steel Ltd and Toyota Motor Corp accusing the companies of violating consumer protection laws and engaging in fraud by concealing the use of substandard metal components in vehicles.
The proposed class-action lawsuit represents the first U.S. consumer complaint filed against Kobe Steel over data fraud, and highlights the legal risks the company faces even after Chief Executive Officer Hiroya Kawasaki announced on Tuesday he would quit to draw a line under the scandal.

The 112-year-old company, which supplies steel and aluminium parts to manufacturers of cars, planes and trains around the world, admitted last year to supplying products with falsified specifications to around 500 customers, throwing global supply chains into turmoil.

----The U.S. lawsuit, filed on Monday in federal court in San Francisco, was brought by two California residents who seek to represent a nationwide class of consumers who bought allegedly defective Toyota vehicles.

According to the complaint, Toyota’s Prius, Camry, Land Cruiser and Lexus vehicles have all been manufactured with “sub-standard” steel, aluminium and copper.
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Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Insulator or superconductor? Physicists find graphene is both

Date:  March 5, 2018

Source: Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Summary: Insulator or superconductor? Physicists find graphene is both, at a 'magic angle.'

It's hard to believe that a single material can be described by as many superlatives as graphene can. Since its discovery in 2004, scientists have found that the lacy, honeycomb-like sheet of carbon atoms -- essentially the most microscopic shaving of pencil lead you can imagine -- is not just the thinnest material known in the world, but also incredibly light and flexible, hundreds of times stronger than steel, and more electrically conductive than copper.

Now physicists at MIT and Harvard University have found the wonder material can exhibit even more curious electronic properties. In two papers published today in Nature, the team reports it can tune graphene to behave at two electrical extremes: as an insulator, in which electrons are completely blocked from flowing; and as a superconductor, in which electrical current can stream through without resistance.

Researchers in the past, including this team, have been able to synthesize graphene superconductors by placing the material in contact with other superconducting metals -- an arrangement that allows graphene to inherit some superconducting behaviors. This time around, the team found a way to make graphene superconduct on its own, demonstrating that superconductivity can be an intrinsic quality in the purely carbon-based material.

The physicists accomplished this by creating a "superlattice" of two graphene sheets stacked together -- not precisely on top of each other, but rotated ever so slightly, at a "magic angle" of 1.1 degrees. As a result, the overlaying, hexagonal honeycomb pattern is offset slightly, creating a precise moiré configuration that is predicted to induce strange, "strongly correlated interactions" between the electrons in the graphene sheets. In any other stacked configuration, graphene prefers to remain distinct, interacting very little, electronically or otherwise, with its neighboring layers.

---- "We can now use graphene as a new platform for investigating unconventional superconductivity," Jarillo-Herrero says. "One can also imagine making a superconducting transistor out of graphene, which you can switch on and off, from superconducting
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The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February

DJIA: 25,029 +283 Up 01. NASDAQ:  7,273 +313 Up 03. SP500: 2,714 +212 Flat.

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