Baltic Dry Index. 1210 +03 Brent Crude 65.67
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Lawmakers, already in a protectionist mood, responded to the pain of the Great Depression by passing the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which raised duties on hundreds of imports.
Meant in part to ease the effects of the Depression by protecting American industry and agriculture from foreign competition, the act instead helped prolong the downturn. Many U.S. trading partners reacted by raising their own tariffs, which contributed significantly to shutting down world trade.
Are global stock
markets “whistling past the graveyard,” or pinning their hopes on a climbdown
on tariffs by President Trump, or an overrule of President Trump by the
Republicans in the US Congress?
From London, I have
my doubts that Congressional Republicans will overrule President Trump on a national
security issue, in a mid-term election year. All the more so, now that
President Trump’s polling above 50 percent, an approval rating higher than
President Obama at a similar point in his presidency. With tariffs playing well
in fly-over America, in the mid-term elections Republicans now have a shot at
picking up a few Democrat seats in the House and the Senate. I also have my
doubts that Gary Cohn’s attempted “palace coup” will succeed.
So that just leaves
the Europeans, Chinese and the rest of the world to back down from their
retaliatory rhetoric, once President Trump imposes his tariffs, widely
anticipated to be Saturday in Pennsylvania. While the wimpy EUSSR might fold,
although for once the EUSSR seems united in making a tough response, China and
the rest of the world except Canada are unlikely to retreat from their threats
to retaliate. Canada seems to be having second thoughts.
Below, a planet I
think, heading towards an unstoppable trade war.
David
Rosenber Special to The Globe and Mail Published March 5, 2018
The amateurism at the White House is absolutely astonishing
---- The amateurism at
the White House, I have to say, is absolutely astonishing. Seriously, to see
Wilbur Ross on TV with a can of Campbell's soup in his hand – I'm sure that was
a first for him. He should have also shown a farm tractor, a car, a piece of
natural gas pipeline, an airplane, and some construction equipment to show the
viewing public too – because the increase in cost and decline in production
from this stupid tax is going to cut a very wide swath. Something tells me Mr.
Ross will be crying in his can of soup once the economic carnage is tallied up.
---- The White House
already has stated that there will be no exemptions and that the actions on
steel and aluminum are being taken for 'national security' reasons. That would
be funny if it weren't so sad. Frozen electricity – which is essentially what
aluminum is – is deemed to be a security of supply issue. The world is awash in
steel capacity and this is somehow a national security issue? No. It is rather
a political issue. And while the headlines always seem to read about how the
trade tensions are really about China, the reality is that the President, for
whatever reason, has a bee in his bonnet about Canada. Maybe it's because
nobody ever wanted to stay at his downtown Toronto hotel at Bay and Adelaide.
But the reality is that he is the only President in modern times to have not
visited Ottawa at this juncture of the post-election cycle. His disdain for
Justin Trudeau is pretty apparent.
---- The White House
doesn't seem to believe that U.S. trading partners will retaliate because of
this smug attitude that nobody will cut off their nose to spite their face.
This is very naive and shows a total lack of knowledge or understanding of
history. My bet is that there is going to be retaliation and that an outright
global trade war is going to occur.
---- Now if NAFTA is
abrogated, and I see no reason why the amigos to the north and south would be
keen on sustaining the talks which aren't going anywhere after no fewer than
seven rounds of discussions, the estimates I have seen from Moody's Analytics
is 1.8 million jobs lost. That isn't Canada. That isn't Mexico. That is 1.8
million jobs lost in the United States. And if the White House is wrong on its
gamble and there is global retaliation, a full global trade war would generate
a decline in U.S. employment of nearly four million. So any of these two
scenarios, with obvious nontrivial risks at this point, would create the
conditions for an outright recession. And what do I receive on my desk
practically daily now? Reasons to buy the stock market dip. Good grief.
More
Asian markets jump back to life after days of declines
Published: Mar 5, 2018 10:01 p.m. ET
Asia-Pacific stocks rose sharply Tuesday as opposition in Washington to
planned U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum grew.Leading regional gains, the Nikkei Stock Average NIK, +1.77% was up 2.2% in early trading, after hitting its lowest closing level since October a day earlier.
The index was supported by softness in the yen versus the U.S. dollar JPYUSD, -0.033887% , which was last at ¥106.27, up from ¥105.56 when Tokyo stocks stopped trading Monday.
South Korea’s Kospi SEU, +1.44% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, +1.14% were up 1.3% each, while benchmarks in Singapore STI, +1.33% and Taiwan Y9999, +1.30% added 1%.
Shares in Hong Kong HSI, +1.71% rebounded 1.6% from Monday’s 2.3% slide.
Investors in China will stay cautious as they monitor comments from the National People’s Congress, said Castor Pang, head of research at Core Pacific-Yamaichi International.
The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +0.72% was 0.1% lower, while the Shenzhen benchmark 399106, +0.95% added just 0.3%.
The gains in Asia followed a rally in global equity markets overnight as the status of the planned U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum became less clear. House Speaker Paul Ryan pushed back against the plan while other top Republicans expressed concerns in a letter. President Donald Trump also suggested that the tariffs were negotiable in comments directed at Canada and Mexico.
The developments helped pushed key benchmarks in Europe and the U.S. up by more than 1%.
More
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-jump-back-to-life-after-days-of-declines-2018-03-05
Cohn Tries to Head Off Trump Tariffs With White House Summit
By Jennifer Jacobs,Margaret Talev, and Justin Sink
Updated on 6 March 2018, 02:14 GMT
White House economic adviser Gary Cohn is summoning executives from
U.S. companies that depend on aluminum and steel to meet this week with
President Donald Trump in a last-ditch effort to halt steep tariffs announced
last week, according to two people familiar with the matter.
Cohn is arranging for a White House meeting on Thursday that would
include representatives of breweries, beverage-can manufacturers and
automakers, along with the oil industry. Trump is scheduled to attend the
meeting, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a
policy disagreement.
A Trump order to impose the tariffs would be a huge setback for Cohn,
who has vigorously opposed the move, citing concerns that it would harm the
economy. This decision is viewed inside the White House as a possible breaking
point for Cohn, a former senior executive at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and some
insiders believe he will depart if Trump doesn’t take his advice on the issue.
Trump advisers who favor the tariffs want him to sign the paperwork
while in Pennsylvania steel country on Saturday, but the signing location has
not yet been decided, according to two people familiar with the location
discussion.
Cohn’s effort to organize the meeting unfolded on Monday as Republicans
in Congress began an extraordinary public campaign to halt the tariffs. Cohn
and GOP leaders on Capitol Hill are worried about repercussions, including a
trade war.
Also expected to attend the White House meeting are Chief of Staff John
Kelly, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer
and trade adviser Peter Navarro.
Morehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/manufacturers-to-go-to-white-house-in-effort-to-blunt-tariffs
Trump Says He Won’t Back Down After Ryan Breaks With Him on Tariffs
By Anna Edgerton
Updated on 5 March 2018, 20:57 GMT
President Donald Trump declared that he won’t retreat from his plan to
impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports after House Speaker Paul Ryan
rejected the plan, saying the U.S. economy could suffer.Asked Monday about the remarks from Ryan’s office, Trump was undeterred. "No, we’re not backing down,” he told reporters at the White House, less than an hour after the speaker’s office aired his concerns.
Ryan spokeswoman AshLee Strong said in a statement, “We are extremely worried about the consequences of a trade war and are urging the White House to not advance with this plan. The new tax reform law has boosted the economy and we certainly don’t want to jeopardize those gains.”
Strong’s comments marked an unusual public break between Ryan and the president and came after other congressional Republicans criticized Trump’s plans for tariffs. Ryan of Wisconsin has supported Trump even in some of the most controversial moments of his presidency.
While Trump has regularly railed about China’s trade practices, the impact of the tariffs of 25 percent on imported steel and 10 percent on aluminum may be most felt by U.S. allies, the European Union, Canada and Mexico.
Harley-Davidson Inc., the motorcycle maker based in Ryan’s home state, is facing threats of retaliation from Europe over Trump’s plans for steel and aluminum tariffs. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said the EU may target imports of the company’s motorcycles as well as Kentucky bourbon and Levi Strauss jeans. Harley already is being hit by a deepening slump in U.S. motorcycle demand, which has spurred job cuts and a plant closure at the Milwaukee-based company.
House Republicans tasked with tax and trade policy are drafting a letter addressed to Trump “expressing concerns about ‘the prospect of broad, global tariffs on aluminum and steel imports,”’ according to Lauren Aronson, a spokeswoman for the Ways and Means Committee. Chairman Kevin Brady of Texas has urged more targeted tariffs on unfairly traded products, rather than broad measures that could hurt economic growth, Aronson said.
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-05/ryan-urges-trump-to-back-down-from-tariffs-on-steel-aluminum
Updated:
WTO head warns trade war over steel tariffs could spark recession; Morneau takes cautious tone
A global trade war over U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs could plunge the world into another recession, said the head of the World Trade Organization in a statement urging international leaders to remain calm.Some, including Finance Minister Bill Morneau, appear to be taking the same approach of saying little that could strain relations further.
Director-General Roberto Azevêdo of the World Trade Organization
called for measured responses from member states in a statement Monday and said
the effects of escalating trade barriers could lead to another recession.
“In light of recent announcements on trade policy measures, it is clear
that we now see a much higher and real risk of triggering an escalation of
trade barriers across the globe,” he said.
“We cannot ignore this risk and I urge all parties to consider and reflect on this situation very carefully. Once we start down this path, it will be very difficult to reverse direction. An eye for an eye will leave us all blind and the world in deep recession. We must make every effort to avoid the fall of the first dominoes. There is still time.”
Speaking with reporters following an appearance in Toronto as part of his post-budget tour, Morneau took a cautious tone in warning that the tariffs could lead to higher costs for American consumers but avoiding making any overt threats of retaliation.
“We, as you know, have put forward strongly our point of view that there’s no advantage for the United States in putting forth tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum,” he said. “In fact, we see a disadvantage. We see a disadvantage for American businesses, we see a disadvantage for Americans with potentially higher costs and we see a disadvantage from a security standpoint as we see Canada, as a staunch ally of the United States, being integral to their supply chain.”
When asked whether Canada would consider retaliatory measures against the U.S. if it does not grant an exemption for Canadian businesses, Morneau said little.
More
https://globalnews.ca/news/4062831/steel-tariffs-bill-morneau-donald-trump-2/
In European news, as always it’s more of the same old confusion, stalemate and chaos.
March 5, 2018 / 11:09 PM
German coalition deal no 'blank cheque' for Europe, conservative tells SPD
BERLIN (Reuters) - A senior conservative lawmaker on Tuesday told Germany’s Social Democrats they would jeopardise a hard-fought coalition agreement if they went overboard with spending plans for Europe.
Ralph Brinkhaus, deputy leader of the conservatives in parliament, said
conservatives would insist on averting new government debt, and planned to
examine any European spending plans very carefully.
Conservatives are still smarting from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s
decision to let an SPD politician serve as finance minister, a job long held by
budget hawk Wolfgang Schaeuble, who was known for his focus on budgetary
discipline.
“I don’t see the European part of the coalition agreement as a blank
cheque,” Brinkaus told Die Welt newspaper. “If someone starts to give away
Germany, we won’t support that.”
Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, who is expected to become finance minister,
last month said the SPD would preserve Schaeuble’s balanced budget policy, but
Germany should not dictate economic policies to its euro zone partners.
Merkel on Monday welcomed a majority vote by SPD members to back the
coalition agreement, and vowed to press on with joint efforts with France on
European reforms and other issues such as trade policy.
The SPD vote result brought relief to German businesses and European
capitals, which say the euro zone would benefit from Merkel being able to
partner with French President Emmanuel Macron on ambitious plans to reform the
single currency bloc.
Brinkhaus’s comments underscored tensions between the centre-left SPD
and the conservative blocs, which are both under pressure to differentiate
themselves more in the next “grand coalition” after big losses in the September
national election.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-politics/german-coalition-deal-no-blank-cheque-for-europe-conservative-tells-spd-idUKKBN1GH3C1
March 4, 2018 / 12:13 AM /
Updated 7 hours ago
Italy's League, 5-Star vie for power after inconclusive vote
ROME (Reuters) - Two anti-establishment leaders made early plays to govern Italy on Monday, triggering concern in the euro zone following an inconclusive election where voters shunted mainstream parties to the sidelines.
With the euro zone’s third-largest economy seemingly facing prolonged
political instability, the anti-immigrant League claimed the right to rule after
its centre-right alliance won the largest bloc of votes.
“We have the right and duty to govern,” League leader Matteo Salvini
told a news conference.
Investors should have no fear, he said, but the prospect of a
eurosceptic-led administration promising to ramp up spending hit shares, bonds
and the euro.
Luigi Di Maio, the head of the biggest single party, the
anti-establishment 5-Star Movement, said his group had emerged as the clear
winner on Sunday, capturing around a third of the vote, and should take the
helm of the next government.
“We’re open to talk to all the political forces,” 31-year-old Luigi Di
Maio said in a statement. “We feel the responsibility to give Italy a
government (as) ... a political force that represents the entire nation.”
With the vote count almost complete, none of the three main factions had
enough seats to govern alone. President Sergio Mattarella is expected to open
formal coalition talks in April, with early elections possible if no accord is
found.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-election/italys-league-5-star-vie-for-power-after-inconclusive-vote-idUKKCN1GG006
France’s Once-Vaunted Trains Are Macron’s Biggest Challenge Yet
Striking workers,
massive debt, service disruptions, unused stations—the rail system has it all
By Ania Nussbaum and Mark Deen
This happens 13 times a day at most, meaning that this stop in the Meuse region is used barely 90 minutes a day. Most passengers take the high-speed trains on to Strasbourg in Alsace, and beyond. Fewer passengers get on and off at these platforms each year than the Paris Metro carries in an hour.
Underused stations on expensive tracks are one of the many reasons
France’s vaunted rail system is insolvent, subsisting on life support from the
state. Rail operator SNCF runs an annual deficit of 3 billion euros despite
receiving 14 billion euros of public subsidies annually—just under half the
defense budget. Its debt, at 45 billion euros, equals the national debt of New
Zealand.
Worse, long-term traffic numbers suggest that trains are losing market
share to airlines and buses, while major rail-service disruptions are riling
passengers with increasing frequency.
Morehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-05/france-s-once-vaunted-trains-are-macron-s-biggest-challenge-yet
If all
else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, fools parting with their money with the Crypto crooks again. Does
Crypto have anything but crooks? Birds of a feather and all that.
"As fewer and fewer people have confidence in paper as a store of value, the price of gold will continue to rise. The history of fiat money is little more than a register of monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry in this dismal register."
Hans F. Sennholz
Shady cryptocurrency touting Ryan Gosling as their designer raises $830K in ICO
by Mix — March 5 2018This is a pretty wild case: A shifty cryptocurrency startup which used a stock photo of Hollywood actor Ryan Gosling for the headshot of their lead graphic designer has managed to raise almost a million in an initial coin offering (ICO).
Miroskii – as the company is called – has since attracted the attention of Reddit with its crafty marketing shenanigans.
But things actually get worse: as pointed out by numerous users on Reddit and Twitter, it appears that the shady cryptocurrency startup used ripped images for pretty much all of its team members.
But unlike the fake Gosling – who goes by the name Kevin Belanger according to Miroskii – the rest of stolen photos featured no celebrities.
CNET has since dug up more evidence showing that pretty much every photo which appears on Miroskii has been snatched from real people (with different names) who have nothing to do with the blockchain or cryptocurrency.
Here are a few examples:
----But if this wasn’t enough, there are even more red flags.
Miroskii has yet to share its white paper with its investors. Its
website reads that the company will offer users their “own decentralized bank”
with support for credit and debit card providers like Visa, Mastercard, and
American Express, but its white paper is still “coming soon.”
Instead, all investors have to consult with when making a decision
whether or not to pledge their money is a shoddy roadmap, with practically no
informational value whatsoever:
“Miroskii Coin is developed and brought to business by the experts from
China, Hongkong, Singapore and Japan to ease the crypto revolution in financial
products,” the company’s marketing promises. “It is developed under its own
highly secure encrypted decentralized blockchain technology.”
“Miroskii coin is been tested, approved and accepted by most of the
industry giants who has already started using the MRC (Miroskii Coin) in their
closed B2B sector,” it continues. “As per the high demand from these industries
we were requested to start the first ICO stage for intuitional companies only.”
“Its time to be a part of the Crypto Revolution,” it concludes. The typo
is theirs, for what is worth.
But here is the most shocking part: this fraudulent effort has raked in
more than $830,000 from over naive investors.
While scam campaigns are nothing unusual in the blockchain and cryptocurrency space, it is puzzling that such a poorly put together swindle can bring in close to a million dollars.
For the record, other than its half-assed website and still upcoming white paper, Miroskii has a total of seven followers on all of its social media accounts combined: that is Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.
https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/03/05/ryan-gosling-cryptocurrency-ico/
Coinbase hit with two class-action lawsuits, one claiming insider trading
Published: Mar 5, 2018 11:53 p.m. ET
Popular cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase is facing two new class-action
lawsuits, including one that accuses it of insider trading.One suit, filed Thursday in federal court in San Francisco, claims Coinbase employees unfairly profited from the December listing of bitcoin cash. The price of bitcoin cash — which spun off from bitcoin in August — shot up almost $1,000 when Coinbase announced on Dec. 19 it would start trading in the digital currency. While the news came as a surprise to most people, the suit says employees knew about the listing ahead of time, as well as anyone they might have told, and those insiders profited unfairly when the price shot up.
The suit alleges that when trading began, insiders swamped Coinbase’s system with buy and sell orders at “fair prices.” Coinbase had to suspend bitcoin cash trading until the next day to maintain liquidity.
“When Coinbase’s customers’ trades were finally executed, it was only after the insiders had driven up the price of bitcoin cash, and thus the remaining bitcoin customers only received their bitcoin cash at artificially inflated prices that had been manipulated well beyond the fair market value of bitcoin cash at that time,” the lawsuit claims.
At the time, Coinbase said it would conduct an investigation into whether any employees acted improperly. The lawsuit says the company never revealed the results of that investigation.
Bitcoin cash, the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, was trading at $1,253 on Monday, according to CoinMarketCap.com, down from its peak above $4,000 on Dec. 20. Bitcoin BTCUSD, -2.22% was trading at $11,319 Monday.
More
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coinbase-hit-with-two-class-action-lawsuits-one-claiming-insider-trading-2018-03-05
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s
future from the 21st century onwards?
Easy printing of biosensors made of graphene
Date:
March 1, 2018
Source:
Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft
Summary:
Cell-based biosensors can simulate the effect of various substances, such as
drugs, on the human body in the laboratory. Depending on the measuring
principle, though, producing them can be expensive. As a result, they are often
not used. Cost factors for sensors that perform measurements electrically are
the expensive electrode material and complex production. Scientists are now
producing biosensors with graphene electrodes cheaply and simply in
roll-to-roll printing. A system prototype for mass production already exists.
Cell-based biosensors measure changes in cell cultures via electrical
signals. This is done by means of electrodes which are mounted inside the Petri
dish or the wells of a so-called well plate. If added viruses destroy a
continuous cell layer on the electrodes, for example, the electrical resistance
measured between the electrodes is reduced. In this way, the effect of vaccines
or drugs (for example) can be tested: the more effective the active ingredient
is, the smaller the number of cells that are destroyed by the viruses and the
lower the measured resistance change will be. Also toxicity tests, such as on
cosmetic products, can function according to the same principle and may replace
animal experiments in the future. Another advantage: If biosensors are linked
to an evaluation unit, measurements can be continuous and automated.
Conductive, biocompatible, printable
The preparation of the described biosensors is expensive and complex,
though: the electrodes are made of a biocompatible and electrically conductive
material, such as gold or platinum. The production of microelectrodes requires a
complicated lithographic process. The result: The laboratories often do not buy
these biosensors because of the high costs, and the examination of the cell
cultures continues to be performed manually under a microscope. As an
alternative to precious metals, however, graphene can now be used as a material
for the electrodes. The advantages of the carbon material: it is electrically
conductive, biocompatible and, if in the form of an ink, can be printed on
surfaces.
Scientists at the Fraunhofer Institute for Biomedical Engineering IBMT
in St. Ingbert in Germany's Saarland region have made use of such a graphene
ink.
----After
the successful construction of the prototype, the practical tests of the
printed biosensors will follow. Project Manager Velten: "We expect to be
able to offer the industry a universal technology platform in no later than a
year."
More
Finally, there goes my retirement income.
Burger-flipping robot begins first shift
March 5 2018
Flippy, a burger-flipping robot, has begun work at a restaurant in Pasadena,
Los Angeles. It is the first of dozens of locations for the system, which is destined to replace human fast-food workers.
The BBC's North America technology reporter Dave Lee saw it in action.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February
DJIA: 25,029 +283 Up 01. NASDAQ: 7,273 +313 Up 03. SP500: 2,714 +212 Flat.
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