Baltic Dry Index. 1169 -10 Brent Crude 64.88
“Adam Smith” aka George Goodman. The Money Game.
We open with “Was it
Russia?” The UK and USA say no doubt about it, but other experts talking to
Reuters aren’t so sure. Below, what happened next after the old USSR ceased to
exist.
March 14, 2018 / 6:26 PM
Secret trial shows risks of nerve agent theft in post-Soviet chaos - experts
MOSCOW/AMSTERDAM
(Reuters) - The British government says Russia is to blame for poisoning former
spy Sergei Skripal with a nerve agent, and most chemical weapons specialists
agree.
But
they say an alternative explanation cannot be ruled out: that the nerve agent
got into the hands of people not acting for the Russian state.
The Soviet Union’s
chemical weapons programme was in such disarray in the aftermath of the Cold
War that some toxic substances and know-how could have got into the hands of
criminals, say people who dealt with the programme at the time.
“Could somebody
have smuggled something out?” said Amy Smithson, a biological and chemical
weapons expert.
“I certainly
wouldn’t rule that possibility out, especially a small amount and particularly
in view of how lax the security was at Russian chemical facilities in the early
1990s.”
While nerve agents
degrade over time, if the pre-cursor ingredients for the nerve agent were
smuggled out back then, stored in proper conditions and mixed recently, they
could still be deadly in a small-scale attack, two experts on chemical weapons
told Reuters.
Skripal, 66, and
his daughter Yulia, 33, remain in hospital in critical condition after being
found unconscious on a bench in the city of Salisbury on March 4. A police
officer was also harmed and remains in a serious condition.
British Prime
Minister Theresa May said on Wednesday that “there is no alternative
conclusion, other than that the Russian state was culpable for the attempted
murder of Mr. Skripal and his daughter, and for threatening the lives of other
British citizens.”
Russia has denied
any involvement in the nerve agent attack.
Accounts of security deficiencies at weapons facilities indicate that,
at least for a period in the 1990s, Moscow was not in firm control of its
chemical weapons stockpiles or the people guarding them.
When Russian banking magnate Ivan Kivelidi and his secretary died in
1995 from organ failure after a military-grade poison was found on the
telephone receiver of his Moscow office, an employee of a state chemical
research institute confessed to having secretly supplied the toxin.
In a closed-door trial, Kivelidi’s business partner was convicted of
poisoning Kivelidi over a dispute. At the trial, prosecutors said the business
partner had obtained the poison, via several intermediaries, from Leonard Rink,
an employee of a state chemical research institute known as GosNIIOKhT.
---- In a statement to investigators after his arrest, viewed by Reuters,
Rink said he was in possession of poisons created as part of the chemical
weapons programme which he stored in his garage. On more than one occasion, he
said, he sold the substances to supplement his income and pay down a debt.
The poison in the Kivelidi case was sold in a deal brokered by an
ex-policeman contact of Rink’s. Rink handed over the poison, in an ampoule
hidden inside a pen presentation box, in a meeting at Moscow’s Belorussky
station, according to his statement.
Rink received a one-year suspended prison sentence for “misuse of powers,”
according to Boris Kuznetsov, who was a lawyer for Kivelidi’s business partner
during the trial.
Kuznetsov said he believed his client was innocent, and that Kivelidi
was poisoned by rogue intelligence officers acting without the knowledge of the
Russian president at the time, Boris Yeltsin.
More
In global stock
market news, the Great Global Trump Trade War potential, has greater fool stock
buyers in short supply. Below, there may be stormy weather ahead, and not just
for President Trump. What goes up and all that, probably round trips as
interest rates rise.
Somebody has to be on the other side.
George Goodman. Why Are The Little People Always
Wrong?
March 15, 2018 / 12:34 AM
Stocks retreat, bonds advance as simmering trade woes curb risk appetite
TOKYO (Reuters) - Stock markets slipped broadly on
Thursday while government bonds attracted safe-haven demand amid mounting
investor concerns that growing trade tensions would hurt the global economy.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.45
percent.
The Asian markets took their cues from Wall Street shares, which fell
for the third straight session overnight after U.S. President Donald Trump
sought to impose fresh tariffs on China, intensifying fears of a trade war.
Boeing Co, seen as particularly vulnerable to retaliation from U.S.
trade partners, fell 2.5 percent, leading the losers on the Dow.
Equity market losses were widespread, with the pan-European FTSEurofirst
300 index shedding 0.14 percent overnight and MSCI’s global stock index losing
0.46 percent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.75 percent, Australian stocks fell 0.4
percent and South Korea’s KOSPI lost 0.45 percent. Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.85
percent but still up roughly 0.6 percent on the week.
---- The
benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 2.806 percent and headed for its
fourth day of declines amid rising diplomatic tension between Britain and
Russia, soft U.S. retail sales data and concerns over Washington’s political
and trade issues.
The specter of a trade war also boosted demand for European debt, with
the German 10-year bund yield falling to a 1-1/2-month low of 0.583 percent.
Yields on British gilts and French government bonds also fell.
In the currency market, the dollar came under pressure again after the
greenback managed a modest bounce overnight following three days of losses.
The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies lost 0.05
percent to 89.655. It was on track to fall about 0.5 percent this week, dogged
by trade tensions and perceived political turmoil in Washington.
More
Finally, in other
interesting news, what could possibly go wrong?
Trump boasts about making up facts about trade deficit to Trudeau
Published: Mar 14, 2018 11:59 p.m. ET
President Donald Trump boasted about making up facts over a trade deficit to
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a fund-raising speech Wednesday,
according to the Washington Post.The Post said it obtained audio of Trump’s remarks at the event in Missouri, where he told the crowd that he had no idea if the U.S. had a trade deficit with Canada, but insisted to Trudeau that there was.
“He’s a good guy, Justin. He said, ‘No, no, we have no trade deficit with you, we have none. Donald, please,’” Trump said, the Post reported, as he mimicked Trudeau’s voice.
“He said, ‘Nope we have no trade deficit.’ I said, ‘Well in that case I feel differently,’ I said ‘but I don’t believe it.’ I sent one of our guys out, his guy, my guy, they went out, I said ‘check because I can’t believe it,’” Trump reportedly said.
“‘Well, sir, you’re actually right. We have no deficit but that doesn’t include energy and timber … And when you do, we lose $17 billion a year.’ It’s incredible.”
According to the U.S. trade representative, the U.S. has an overall trade surplus of $12.5 billion with Canada. It is the second-largest trading partner of the U.S., totalling $544 billion between the two countries.
According to the audio, Trump went on to describe allies such as the
European Union, Japan and South Korea of economically pillaging the U.S. for
decades, and called the North American Free Trade Agreement a disaster, the
Post reported.
He also hinted at withdrawing troops from South Korea if a better trade
agreement was not worked out. “We have a very big trade deficit with them, and
we protect them,” Trump said, according to the Post. “We lose money on trade,
and we lose money on the military. We have right now 32,000 soldiers between
North and South Korea. Let’s see what happens.”
Credit Suisse Sued by Investor Over Volatility Note That Crashed
By Noah BuhayarRajan Chahal filed the lawsuit Wednesday in federal court in New York against the bank, Chief Executive Officer Tidjane Thiam and finance chief David Mathers, alleging they failed to disclose the company was manipulating its VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term exchange-traded notes, known by the trading symbol XIV. Chahal’s complaint seeks class-action status on behalf of other buyers.
U.S. regulators already are scrutinizing the implosion last month of a variety of VIX exchange-traded products that were designed to profit in calm markets. The blowup -- which centered around a spike in volatility on Feb. 5 -- has put a spotlight on a small corner of the more-than $3 trillion exchange-traded fund industry that lets everyone from hedge funds to mom-and-pop investors engage in complex trading strategies.
“Credit Suisse was actively manipulating the Inverse VIX Short ETNs by
liquidating its holdings in various financial products to avoid a loss,”
Chahal’s attorneys wrote in the complaint. The filing mainly draws on
information that’s already public, while noting Chahal aims to turn up more
evidence to bolster the case during the proceeding.
Credit Suisse disputed the assertions in a statement.
More
March 14, 2018 / 5:09 AM
Corporate America's undertakers prepare for feast after lean years
NEW
YORK (Reuters) - As the era of cheap money gradually draws to a close and
rising inflation and interest rates cast a shadow over Wall Street’s nine-year
bull market, one corner of the financial industry is cheering.
Debt restructuring experts are gearing up for a pickup in business,
expecting more debt defaults and more financial stress in general ahead, an
ominous sign for investors already rattled by last month’s stock market
sell-off.
Restructuring advisors at several firms told Reuters they were more
optimistic now than at any time since the 2008 financial crisis, and have
started preparing for a wave of debt overhauls that could begin in earnest as
early as 2019 and last for years.
“We are recruiting heavily, junior people, MBAs, operational people...
We are seeing significant growth and significant hiring,” said Lisa Donahue,
global leader of the turnaround and restructuring practice at consulting firm
AlixPartners LLP.
That confidence reflects the view that rising interest rates will make
it harder for struggling companies to borrow more or roll over their debt, as
the era of abundant cheap credit fueled by the Federal Reserve’s zero-rate
policy and its asset buying draws to a close.
Restructuring professionals also point to outflows from the junk bond
market, a key funding source for less creditworthy borrowers, and creeping
inflation, which slowly results in an across-the-board rise in costs for
companies. U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs announced earlier this
month could exacerbate these inflationary fears.
At one of the corporate restructuring industry’s biggest annual
gatherings last month in Las Vegas, many participants spoke of reaching a
turning point after several lean years.
More
Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant
By Jesper StarnGSR said it will also build a battery factory next door to NEVS’s facility, which is based on the site of a former Saab auto plant in Trollhattan. Chinese investors lead by Kai Johan Jiang are turning the Saab factory into an electric vehicle producer, making cars under the NEVS brand.
“The factory would make battery packs for 400,000-500,000 cars a year, which means they would not only intend to supply NEVS with batteries, but are counting on other customers in Sweden and Europe,” Fredrik Fryklund, a communications manager at NEVS, said by phone.
The new facility rivals Northvolt AB’s plan to build a 4 billion-euro battery factory in the north of Sweden. GSR’s announcement comes a day after car maker Volkswagen AG said it secured 20 billion euros in battery supplies.
GSR didn’t say when they expect to complete the battery factory. The investment in NEVS will be made as a loan convertible into company shares.
“If you
don’t know who you are, the stock market is an expensive place to find out.”
George Goodman
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, more worry over those seriously bent cryptos again. Unicorns
anyone?
“Nobody
ever lost a dollar by underestimating the taste of the American public.”
P. T.
Barnum
Bitcoin Is Worthless, Bubble May Pop Soon, Allianz Global Says
By Cormac MullenThe cryptocurrency is worthless, even if blockchain technology could bring significant benefits to investors, said the investment arm of Europe’s biggest insurer, which manages almost 500 billion euro.
“In our view, its intrinsic value must be zero,” Stefan Hofrichter, the company’s head of global economics and strategy, wrote in a recent web post. “A bitcoin is a claim on nobody – in contrast to, for instance, sovereign bonds, equities or paper money – and it does not generate any income stream.”
While one could make the same argument about gold, the yellow metal has been widely accepted as a store of value for more than two-and-a-half thousand years -- compared to less than a decade for Bitcoin, he said.
In addition, the world’s largest cryptocurrency “ticks all of the boxes” of the essential criteria for any asset bubble, including overtrading, “new-era” thinking and rising leverage, he wrote. Bitcoin mania is a textbook-like bubble, “one that is probably just about to burst.”
Hofrichter joins a chorus of commentators casting doubt on the underlying value of the digital currency. University of Pittsburgh researchers concluded it’s “an asset which has no value by traditional measures” and economist Nouriel Roubini called it the “biggest bubble in human history.”.
More
March 13, 2018 / 7:13 PM
Exclusive - G20 financial heads to urge crypto-asset monitoring to safeguard financial stability
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The world’s financial leaders will call on
international standard-setting bodies on March 20 for stronger monitoring of
crypto-assets and to assess the need for a multilateral response as such assets
could at some point threaten financial stability.
The call appears in a draft communique prepared for the meeting of
finance ministers and central bank governors of the world’s 20 biggest economies
in Buenos Aires on March 19-20, seen by Reuters.
The financial leaders will say the technological innovation behind
crypto-currencies has the potential to improve the efficiency and inclusiveness
of the financial system.
“Crypto currencies, however, raise issues with respect to consumer and
investor protection, tax evasion, money laundering and terrorist financing. At
some point they could have financial stability implications,” the draft
communique adds.
---- Regulators
globally have raised the alarm over cryptocurrencies, saying they may aid money
laundering and terrorist financing, hurt consumers and undermine trust in the
global financial system.
Japan was the first country to adopt a national system to oversee
cryptocurrency trading. It carried out checks on several exchanges this year
after the theft of $530 million from one exchange, Coincheck Inc, in January.
France and Germany have said they will make joint proposals to regulate
the bitcoin cryptocurrency market.
The head of the European Union’s watchdog said a short-term strategy
could be to focus on applying anti-money laundering and terrorist financing
rules, warning consumers of the risk of trading in cryptocurrencies and
preventing banks from holding them.
Regulators globally have raised the alarm over cryptocurrencies, saying
they may aid money laundering and terrorist financing, hurt consumers and
undermine trust in the global financial system.
Japan was the first country to adopt a national system to oversee
cryptocurrency trading. It carried out checks on several exchanges this year
after the theft of $530 million from one exchange, Coincheck Inc, in January.
France and Germany have said they will make joint proposals to regulate
the bitcoin cryptocurrency market.
The head of the European Union’s watchdog said a short-term strategy
could be to focus on applying anti-money laundering and terrorist financing
rules, warning consumers of the risk of trading in cryptocurrencies and
preventing banks from holding them.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said last week that many
online trading platforms for cryptocurrencies should be registered with the
regulator and subject to additional rules, in a further sign regulators are
cracking down on the digital currency sector.
In a statement, the SEC said these “potentially unlawful” platforms may
be giving investors an unearned sense of safety by labelling themselves as
“exchanges.” The regulator said these platforms need to register with the SEC
as a regulated national securities exchange or as an alternate trading system,
or ATS.
Virtual currencies have existed for years but speculation in them has
recently ballooned - along with scams promising investors returns of over 1,000
percent in weeks.
In a time of volatile markets, hackers are also active in the sector.
Bitcoin, the best known virtual currency, lost over half its value
earlier this year after surging more than 1,300 percent last year.
“There's a sucker born
every minute.”
P. T. Barnum
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
France, India push $1 trillion solar power club for tropics
Representatives of some 20 countries from Africa, Asia and Australasia yesterday joined President Emmanuel Macron of France and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India at the founding conference of the International Solar Alliance (ISA).
The group hopes to promote investment of $1 trillion on solar generation in tropical countries over the next 12 years.Macron told a press conference in New Delhi that France would itself invest €700m in the ISA, bringing its total investment to €1bn.
The intergovernmental organisation, which was proposed by Modi in 2015, has gathered 60 signatories, 30 of whom have ratified the agreement.
The aim of the ISA is to provide guarantees for low-interest loans to countries between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn, which have abundant sunshine but lack the resources to exploit it.
Nicolas Fornage, the director of the French Development Agency, told Le Monde: “As solar technology has become ever more efficient and affordable, private investors are taking over from public sector agencies. We want to encourage them by using this money to provide loan guarantees.”
In an interview with the India Today, President Macron said a network of a hundred centres of excellence should be set up to promote the transfer of technology and innovation and to train 100,000 technicians over the next five years. A video of the interview can be seen here.
The move is intended to put France at the head of efforts to ameliorate global warming after last year’s withdrawal of the US from the 2015 Paris accords.
Macron’s office has said that €13bn in deals were signed on the first day of his trip to India.
Although it did not provide a full list of what they were, they included a water project for Suez, and the signing of an "industrial way forward agreement” between EDF and the Nuclear Power Corporation of India. This envisages the construction of six European Pressurised Water reactors at Jaitapur, a site on the coast of Maharashtra state, about 100km south of Mumbai.
If this 9.9GW scheme goes ahead, it will be the world’s largest nuclear site, however agreements have been signed before. In December 2010 then-president Nicolas Sarkozy signed a deal to build the first two reactors with then prime minister Manmohan Singh.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February
DJIA: 25,029 +283 Up 01. NASDAQ: 7,273 +313 Up 03. SP500: 2,714 +212 Flat.
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