Tuesday 13 March 2018

Russia v The West



Baltic Dry Index. 1192 -09    Brent Crude 64.96

I think the international community should unite to fight such inhuman phenomena as terror attacks and the murder of totally innocent people.

Vladimir Putin

Less than a week out from the Russian presidential election and both Russia and the west have a new confrontation that could all to easily escalate to war. Was Putin’s Russia just caught dead to rights using nerve agent Novichok on the streets of middle England, to try to kill a traitorous Russian agent?  The UK government and the US government both say yes. Russia denies it.

There’s a whole lot of unanswered questions in the official story line, suggesting that perhaps we are still not getting the whole truth and nothing but the truth, but circumstantially there seems little other explanation, except that Russia did it. A false flag operation designed to sabotage the election or the later World Cup Football competition in Russia in June, is far fetched.

An authorised or rogue operation hardly matters, though a rogue operation brings in a whole slew of other questions regarding what’s going on in Russia.

Below, the big clash that’s only going to bet bigger in the days ahead.
 
March 12, 2018 / 7:22 AM / Updated 3 hours ago

May says 'highly likely' Russia behind nerve attack on spy

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Monday it was“highly likely” that Moscow was responsible for the poisoning in England of Russian former double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter using a military-grade nerve agent.

May told parliament that either the Russian state was directly responsible for the poisoning or it had allowed the nerve agent to get into the hands of others. London has given Russia until the end of Tuesday to explain its use.

British officials had identified the substance as being part of the Novichok group of nerve agents that were developed by the Soviet military during the 1970s and 1980s, May said.

Skripal, 66, and his 33-year-old daughter, Yulia, have been in hospital in critical condition since being found unconscious on a bench outside a shopping centre in the city of Salisbury on March 4.

“Should there be no credible response, we will conclude that this action amounts to an unlawful use of force by the Russian state against the United Kingdom,” she said, calling the attack a“reckless and despicable act”.

Russia’s foreign ministry hit back immediately, saying May’s comments were a“circus show” and part of a political information campaign against Russia.

----Earlier, White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said the United States stood by America’s“closest ally,” but she stopped short of blaming Russia for the attack.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the use of any nerve agent was“horrendous and completely unacceptable” and“this incident is of great concern to NATO”.

Relations between Britain and Russia have been strained since the murder in London of former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko, who died in 2006 after drinking green tea laced with radioactive polonium-210.

On Monday, May said the latest poisoning took place“against a backdrop of a well-established pattern of Russian state aggression” and that Britain was ready to take“much more extensive measures” against Russia than in the past.
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What Is Novichok, the Poison that Nearly Killed a Russian Ex-Spy?

By |
A Soviet-era poison called Novichok was used to poison an ex-Russian spy and his daughter last week in England, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May told Parliament today (March 12).

This announcement shows that U.K. authorities were right to suspect that a type of nerve agent had poisoned the former spy, Sergei Skripal, 66, and his daughter, Yulia, 33, who were found stiff and unconscious on a park bench in Salisbury, England on March 4. Both Sergei Skripal and Yulia Skripal are critically ill and in intensive care.

But  what is Novichok and how does it affect humans? [5 Lethal Chemical Warfare Agents]

Novichok, which means "newcomer" in Russian, is a Soviet-era class of nerve agents that was created in the 1970s and 1980s as an attempt to get around the Chemical Weapons Treaty, according to "Responding to Terrorism: A Medical Handbook," published in 2010. That's because the treaty banned chemical weapons that have a certain chemical structure, and Novichok has a different structure.

Despite this structural difference, Novichok agents act like other nerve agents by binding to and inactivating cholinesterase, an enzyme that the nervous system uses to communicate with muscles.

"The reason you die from these [nerve agents] is very simple," said Dr. Lewis Nelson, chairman of emergency medicine at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School, who is not involved with the Skripals' treatment. "If your muscles don't work you can't breathe, and if you can't breathe you eventually die."

Like other nerve agents, Novichok causes a range of symptoms. Victims can develop pinpoint-size pupils, digestive problems and excess salivation and tears, Nelson said. Typically, muscle spasms and seizures occur and the heart stops beating.

Novichok agents can take the form of an ultra-fine powder, according to the handbook. The poison is made when two separate, nontoxic components are mixed into an active nerve agent.

If Novichok agents are inhaled, symptoms can occur in 30 seconds to 2 minutes, the handbook reported.

In addition, a little bit of Novichok can do a lot of damage; it's five to eight times more potent than VX nerve agent, the handbook reported. This means that it takes less Novichok to cause the same amount of harm that VX does, Nelson said.

Because so little of it is needed, Novichok agents are challenging to detect in victims. But toxicologists could probably find them if they know what they're looking for, Nelson said. "There are ways around it by concentrating the sample," he told Live Science.
More
https://www.livescience.com/62001-novichok-poisoned-former-russian-spy.html

Tillerson Says Substance Used in Ex-Spy Poisoning Is From Russia

By Nick Wadhams and Tim Ross
12 March 2018, 23:47 GMT
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson joined the British government in saying the poison used in an attack on a former Russian spy in the U.K. clearly came from Russia, calling the episode an “egregious act” that will trigger a U.S. response.

Speaking to reporters as he flew back to the U.S. from Africa, Tillerson said it was still unclear whether the Russian government knew about the attack, but suggested there were few other explanations. Earlier in the day, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May publicly blamed Russia for poisoning a former spy and his daughter on British soil. Russia’s Foreign Ministry quickly denied her accusation.

“This is a substance that is known to us and does not exist widely,” Tillerson said. “It is only in the hands of a very, very limited number of parties. And I don’t want to say anything further than that.”

“This is a really egregious act,” Tillerson said, adding that he had just gotten off the phone with British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and that the U.S. would soon release a statement about the incident. “It certainly will trigger a response -- I’ll leave it that.”

Tillerson declined to say what the American response might be to the attack, in which Russia has denied any involvement. But he made clear his own anger over the state of the relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government, saying the U.S. had invested in efforts to work together and solve their problems without much success.
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-12/tillerson-says-substance-used-in-ex-spy-poisoning-is-from-russia

Russian Military Tests Nuclear-Capable Hypersonic Missile

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Updated on 12 March 2018, 15:35 GMT
Moscow (AP) -- The Russian military said it has conducted a successful test of a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile capable of sneaking through enemy defenses.

A video posted by the Defense Ministry Sunday showed a MiG-31 fighter jet launching a Kinzhal (Dagger) missile during a training flight. The ministry said the missile, which carried a conventional warhead, hit a practice target at a firing range in southern Russia.

President Vladimir Putin named Kinzhal this month among the new nuclear weapons he said would bolster Russia's military capability and render the U.S. missile defense useless.

Putin said Kinzhal flies 10 times faster than the speed of sound, has a range of more than 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles) and can carry a nuclear or a conventional warhead. The military said it's capable of hitting both land targets and navy ships.

Putin said the missile already had been put on combat duty with a unit of Russia's Southern Military District.

The Defense Ministry said in Sunday's statement that the test launch proved the missile's capability. It added that the new weapon has no equal thanks to its superior maneuverability and ability to dodge enemy radars.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-12/porn-actress-offers-to-pay-back-trump-settlement-to-end-silence

The U.S. Has Bigger Problems in Asia Than North Korea

Kim is a tactical difficulty. Holding our alliances against China is the strategic issue.
by James Stavridis
12 March 2018, 17:27 GMT
Now that the shock of President Donald Trump’s decision to meet with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un in May has worn off, it's time to consider the broader strategic implications of how the U.S. can best approach Kim's lethal regime in particular, and Asia in general.

---- The likelihood of Kim ever giving up his nuclear weapons approaches negative infinity. After all, the reason he is willing to slow his program and come to a meeting with Trump is not the president's “fire and fury” rhetoric –- it is the simple fact that he and his scientists have worked hard, spent an enormous amount of his country’s limited resources, and built a boutique nuclear capability with demonstrable reach. That makes him, like Pinocchio, a “real boy” in the world of nuclear powers. He will never give that up, especially having watched other dictators like Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi topple after walking away from their weapons of mass destruction.

---- While the U.S. certainly ought to be mindful of North Korea’s growing nuclear capability and intercontinental ballistic missiles, they are in the end a highly tactical and isolated concern. Instead of putting North Korea at the center of our Asian agenda, we should step back and consider what America's real interests are in the region. North Korea is not the centerpiece of our Asia-Pacific strategy. What really matters?

First and most important are the U.S. relationships with key allies, partners and friends. These range from treaty allies whom Washington is sworn to defend -- Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines and Thailand -- to nations with whom it shares very close political, economic and defense relationships. The latter include Singapore and Malaysia, and now increasingly India, Vietnam and Indonesia. Our most vital interest is ensuring we maintain our principle advantage over China and Russia: that network of close partners.
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-03-12/north-korea-talks-trump-has-bigger-problems-in-asia

In other news:

Asian Stocks Mixed Ahead of U.S. Data; Yen Falls: Markets Wrap

By Adam Haigh
Asian equity traders adopted a cautious tone Tuesday following a dip in U.S. stocks, with focus turning to a U.S. inflation report for clues on the pace of Federal Reserve policy tightening. The dollar gained against major peers and Treasury yields held declines.

Japanese stocks fluctuated before closing higher, while Hong Kong and Chinese shares drifted. Australian equities slid, weighed by banks and miners. The S&P 500 Index slipped overnight following its biggest rally in five weeks that was spurred by a better-than-expected jobs report. The yen weakened as investors discounted the political fallout from a scandal embroiling Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso. The U.S. 10-year yield held at 2.87 percent after Monday’s Treasury auction was broadly in line with expectations.

The yen erased Monday’s rally spurred by political concerns surrounding Japan’s Finance Ministry, run by Aso, a stalwart ally of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose administration has endorsed a weak currency.

“Considering what is going on in the world -- we have trade frictions, we have North Korea -- in the context of the whole thing, what is happening in Japan is insignificant,” Nader Naeimi, head of dynamic markets at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney told Bloomberg TV. Naeimi said he expected the yen to weaken before starting to firm again.

Investors are looking to American inflation and retail sales data followed by reports on Chinese industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment to provide direction for markets this week. The U.S. inflation reading is the last major piece of data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.

Politics also remain in focus after President Donald Trump issued an executive order blocking Broadcom Ltd. from acquiring Qualcomm Inc., scuttling a $117 billion hostile takeover that had been subject of scrutiny over the deal’s threat to U.S. national security.

Elsewhere, oil fell back below $62 a barrel and prices of industrial metals tumbled.

----Here are some of the key things happening this week:
  • China data on industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment all out on Wednesday are likely to point to slower growth, according to Bloomberg Economics forecasts.
  • Key indicators for the Fed dominate the economic agenda in the coming week. Headline inflation may have edged up to 2.2 percent in February from 2.1 percent, though consensus before Tuesday’s report is for core inflation to remain at 1.8 percent.
  • Prices and factory output are focal points in the euro area. Friday’s second inflation report for February may touch 1.2% from 1.1% the previous month.
  • Also this week, Germany’s Angela Merkel is inaugurated to a fourth term, EU27 government officials discuss the European Union’s Brexit position, and U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond issues his spring statement.
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China Unveils 'Revolutionary' Plan to Give Communist Party Even More Power

Bloomberg News
China unveiled a “revolutionary” government restructuring plan that consolidates Communist Party authority, giving President Xi Jinping more direct control over the levers of money and power.

The plan put before China’s rubber-stamp parliament Tuesday -- some of which had been reported by Bloomberg -- calls for merging several ministries and agencies including the regulators that oversee the country’s $43 trillion banking and insurance sectors. The proposed “CPC leadership system” would also clarify the party’s policy-making authority over state agencies.

The moves would further centralize power in the nation of 1.4 billion people. The emphasis on party control represents China’s most decisive shift yet from 1980s reforms led by Deng Xiaoping aimed at professionalizing the government after Mao Zedong’s disruptive party-led political movements led to famine and bloodshed.

Liu He, a key economic adviser to Xi and a member of the party’s 25-member Politburo, called the reform “revolutionary” Tuesday in an article published by the party’s People’s Daily newspaper. “Strengthening the party’s leadership in all areas of work is the primary task of deepening the reform of the party and state institutions,” He said.

The changes include:
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Nobody should pin their hopes on a miracle.

Vladimir Putin

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, it’s an ill wind and all that. Bloomberg highlights one of Trump’s trade war few winners.

When the operations of capitalism come to resemble those of the casino, ill fortune will be the lot of many.

John Maynard Keynes.

In a Perfect Trump World, U.S. Steel Could Double Under Tariffs

By Joe Deaux
12 March 2018, 04:00 GMT
U.S. Steel Corp. has surged 24 percent this year, but it’s still trading well below where it could given the price of the metal.
That argument comes from Bloomberg Intelligence’s Andrew Cosgrove, who said in a note that the iconic American steelmaker could rise to as high as $84 a share, from $43.69 on Friday. While that’s a best-case scenario that assumes higher-than-average earnings multiples and a surge in steel prices, the tariffs ordered by President Donald Trump on Thursday add to the case that the shares don’t fully reflect recent steel-price gains.

“The market is definitely not pricing in the current price of hot-rolled coil in these stocks,” Cosgrove, a senior industry analyst, said in a telephone interview. “They’re pricing hot-rolled coil at about $700, and it’s currently at $840.”

Cosgrove said in a separate note Friday that the tariffs could displace at least 5.6 million tons of steel imports across six different products, leaving open the door for domestic companies like U.S. Steel to fill the demand gap.

U.S. hot-rolled steel coil is a benchmark product used in everything from bridges to microwaves. Prices for hot-rolled coil, along with cold-rolled coil, galvanized, plate, oil-country tubular goods and rebar, “all have upside from here,” Cosgrove said in the report.

Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel’s stock has been helped by anticipation of U.S. tariffs and progress on a program to inject some $1.2 billion to upgrade aging facilities. Last week, the company announced it would restart a furnace in Granite City, Illinois, which Cosgrove said could add 1.5 million tons of raw steel capacity. U.S. Steel credited the president’s tariff promise for the action.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Graphene promise for more efficient fertilizers

Date: March 7, 2018

Source: The University of Adelaide

Summary: Fertilizers with lower environmental impacts and reduced costs for farmers are being developed by researchers in the world-first use of the new advanced material graphene as a fertilizer carrier.

In partnership with industry, the researchers have demonstrated effective slow release fertilisers can be produced from loading essential trace elements onto graphene oxide sheets.

Using graphene as a carrier means the fertilisers can be applied in a more targeted fashion, with overall increased fertiliser efficiency and great nutrient uptake by the plants. The graphene-based carriers have so far been demonstrated with the micronutrients zinc and copper. Work is continuing with macronutrients such as nitrogen and phosphate.

"Fertilisers that show slower, more controlled release and greater efficiency will have reduced impact on the environment and lower costs for farmers over conventional fertilisers, bringing significant potential benefit for both agriculture and the environment," says Professor Mike McLaughlin, Head of the University of Adelaide's Fertiliser Technology Research Centre at the Waite campus.

"Our research found that loading copper and zinc micronutrients onto graphene oxide sheets was an effective way to supply micronutrients to plants. It also increased the strength of the fertiliser granules for better transport and spreading ability."

Professor Dusan Losic, nanotechnology leader in the University's School of Chemical Engineering and Director of the University's Australian Research Council (ARC) Research Hub for Graphene Enabled Industry Transformation, says: "Graphene is a novel new material only discovered in 2004 and has incredible properties, including a very high surface area, strength and adaptability to bind to different nutrients. We started exciting research on a broad range of applications of graphene four years ago -- this is the first time graphene has been developed as a carrier for fertiliser nutrients."

The research, carried out by PhD student Shervin Kabiri, has been published in the journal Applied Materials and Interfaces. It is a collaboration between the University of Adelaide's Fertiliser Technology Research Centre and the University's Australian Research Council Research Hub for Graphene Enabled Industry Transformation.
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Nobody should have any illusion about the possibility of gaining military superiority over Russia. We will never allow this to happen.

Vladimir Putin

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February

DJIA: 25,029 +283 Up 01. NASDAQ:  7,273 +313 Up 03. SP500: 2,714 +212 Flat.

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